{"source":"polymarket","id":"941957","ticker":"us-tornadoes-september-2026","slug":"us-tornadoes-september-2026","title":"US Tornadoes in September 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).\n\nOnly tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nAs of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.\n\nIf the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.\n\nThe market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.\n\nIf no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-november-W7XLO0OomR-x.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-november-W7XLO0OomR-x.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T13:39:37Z","end_date":"2026-10-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":290.1792,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"106163","slug":"tornado","label":"Tornado"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"101998","slug":"natural-disaster","label":"Natural Disaster"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"25 - 49","top_outcome_probability":0.475,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-04T04:31:16.630113Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T04:31:16.630113Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T13:47:07.520481Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tornadoes-september-2026","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4027941","event_id":"941957","slug":"us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b2","question":"Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?","group_item_title":"25 - 49","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).\n\nOnly tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nAs of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.\n\nIf the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.\n\nThe market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.\n\nIf no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.475,0.525],"probability":0.475,"spread":0.73,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T13:39:37Z","end_date":"2026-10-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":24.2012,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-04T04:31:16.900012Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T04:31:16.900012Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T13:47:07.553316Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tornadoes-september-2026/us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b2","event_title":"US Tornadoes in September 2026","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.46,0.475,0.46,0.485,0.465,0.465,0.485,0.455,0.53,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.455,0.45,0.45,0.515,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4027942","event_id":"941957","slug":"us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b3","question":"Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?","group_item_title":"50 - 74","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).\n\nOnly tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nAs of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.\n\nIf the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.\n\nThe market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.\n\nIf no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.55],"probability":0.45,"spread":0.68,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T13:39:37Z","end_date":"2026-10-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.034999999999999976,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":46.364,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-04T02:05:32.442527Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T02:05:32.442527Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T13:47:07.553316Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tornadoes-september-2026/us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b3","event_title":"US Tornadoes in September 2026","chart_24h":[0.485,0.465,0.49,0.49,0.455,0.47,0.49,0.505,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.455,0.515,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.475,0.515,0.45]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4027943","event_id":"941957","slug":"us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b4","question":"Will there be between 75 and 124 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?","group_item_title":"75 - 124","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).\n\nOnly tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nAs of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.\n\nIf the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.\n\nThe market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.\n\nIf no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.44,0.56],"probability":0.44,"spread":0.72,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T13:39:37Z","end_date":"2026-10-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":56.736,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-04T04:31:16.900012Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T04:31:16.900012Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T13:47:07.553316Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tornadoes-september-2026/us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b4","event_title":"US Tornadoes in September 2026","chart_24h":[0.44,0.475,0.505,0.455,0.475,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.455,0.445,0.435,0.435,0.47,0.475,0.475,0.48,0.46,0.435,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.485,0.455,0.48,0.465,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.445,0.44]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4027940","event_id":"941957","slug":"us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b1","question":"Will there be under 25 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?","group_item_title":"Under 25","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).\n\nOnly tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nAs of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.\n\nIf the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.\n\nThe market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.\n\nIf no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.395,0.605],"probability":0.395,"spread":0.75,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T13:39:37Z","end_date":"2026-10-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":49.302,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-04T04:31:16.900012Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T04:31:16.900012Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T13:47:07.553316Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tornadoes-september-2026/us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b1","event_title":"US Tornadoes in September 2026","chart_24h":[0.435,0.43,0.43,0.425,0.425,0.42,0.425,0.44,0.39,0.425,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.405,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.375,0.375,0.43,0.425,0.415,0.425,0.405,0.415,0.425,0.38,0.425,0.41,0.395]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4027944","event_id":"941957","slug":"us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b5","question":"Will there be 125 or more tornadoes in the US in September 2026?","group_item_title":"125 or more","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).\n\nOnly tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nAs of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.\n\nIf the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.\n\nThe market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.\n\nIf no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.205,0.795],"probability":0.205,"spread":0.37,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T13:39:37Z","end_date":"2026-10-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":93.584,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T21:49:10.355033Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T21:49:10.355033Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T13:47:07.553316Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tornadoes-september-2026/us-tornadoes-2026-09-28-b5","event_title":"US Tornadoes in September 2026","chart_24h":[0.215,0.205,0.215,0.21,0.215,0.215,0.21,0.205,0.21,0.21,0.205,0.205,0.205,0.205]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/941957","as_of":"2026-09-04T04:46:58.724776Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"US Tornadoes in September 2026\" — top market at 48% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}