{"source":"polymarket","id":"950992","ticker":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory","slug":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory","title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.\n\nIf the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-winner-YHHbQcKZp2Gq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-winner-YHHbQcKZp2Gq.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T00:29:13Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":718.1794649999999,"volume_24hr":718.1794649999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.4826602935791,"normalized_volume":9.847094535827637,"liquidity":13604.48798,"open_interest":1378.5794649999998,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"103721","slug":"saxony-anhalt","label":"Saxony-Anhalt"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"AfD 15-20%","top_outcome_probability":0.49,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.25,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":60.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.051043Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.051043Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T00:35:21.471497Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,66.19,116.19,116.19,116.19,116.19,135.425293,135.425293,195.425293,195.425293,643.1794649999999,643.1794649999999,643.1794649999999,683.1794649999999,683.1794649999999,688.1794649999999,688.1794649999999,688.1794649999999,688.1794649999999,708.1794649999999,708.1794649999999,708.1794649999999,718.1794649999999,718.1794649999999],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4095784","event_id":"950992","slug":"will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-15-20","question":"Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 15-20%?","group_item_title":"AfD 15-20%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.\n\nIf the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.49,0.51],"probability":0.49,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T00:29:13Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":0.25,"volume_24h_change":60.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.223081111907959,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":677.4428,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T00:35:22.292684Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory/will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-15-20","event_title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.24,0.235,0.23,0.23,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.365,0.315,0.32,0.415,0.425,0.43,0.425,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.475,0.47,0.49,0.495]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4095781","event_id":"950992","slug":"will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-20-25","question":"Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 20-25%?","group_item_title":"AfD 20-25%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.\n\nIf the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T00:29:13Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":67.65217200000001,"volume_24hr":67.652172,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":67.652172,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.644346714019775,"normalized_volume":5.247282028198242,"liquidity":787.7707,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T00:35:22.292684Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory/will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-20-25","event_title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.385,0.28,0.26,0.295,0.43,0.53,0.525,0.51,0.485,0.47,0.52,0.515,0.445,0.405,0.41,0.465,0.46,0.45,0.445,0.4,0.415,0.41,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.405]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4095772","event_id":"950992","slug":"will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-at-least-25","question":"Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by at least 25%?","group_item_title":"AfD 25%+","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.\n\nIf the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.11,0.89],"probability":0.11,"spread":0.14,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T00:29:13Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":44.235293,"volume_24hr":44.235293,"prob_24h_change":-0.315,"volume_24h_change":44.235293,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.210578918457031,"normalized_volume":4.263105392456055,"liquidity":1208.4811,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T00:35:22.292684Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory/will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-at-least-25","event_title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.425,0.41,0.425,0.415,0.25,0.235,0.225,0.195,0.195,0.16,0.195,0.105,0.125,0.05,0.095,0.09,0.065,0.09,0.08,0.075,0.085,0.105,0.11,0.075,0.07]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4095794","event_id":"950992","slug":"will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-10-15","question":"Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 10-15%?","group_item_title":"AfD 10-15%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.\n\nIf the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.07,0.93],"probability":0.07,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T00:29:13Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10.0,"volume_24hr":10.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.18,"volume_24h_change":10.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":2.4576191902160645,"normalized_volume":1.6869748830795288,"liquidity":931.8697,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T00:35:22.292684Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory/will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-10-15","event_title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.25,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.215,0.21,0.205,0.18,0.16,0.205,0.125,0.14,0.125,0.125,0.12,0.09,0.105,0.115,0.11,0.105,0.11,0.1,0.085,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4095803","event_id":"950992","slug":"will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-less-than-10","question":"Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by less than 10%?","group_item_title":"AfD <10%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.\n\nIf the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0665,0.9335],"probability":0.0665,"spread":0.123,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T00:29:13Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43.99,"volume_24hr":43.99,"prob_24h_change":-0.1935,"volume_24h_change":43.99,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.192873477935791,"normalized_volume":4.250952243804932,"liquidity":1054.72388,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T05:09:44.264925Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T00:35:22.292684Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory/will-the-afd-win-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-by-less-than-10","event_title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.26,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.15,0.13,0.125,0.12,0.13,0.065,0.1,0.03,0.0515,0.0365,0.0415,0.0505,0.046,0.0425,0.093,0.1175,0.088,0.0775,0.075,0.083]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4095811","event_id":"950992","slug":"will-another-margin-of-victory-outcome-occur-in-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election","question":"Will another margin of victory outcome occur in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election?","group_item_title":"Other","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.\n\nIf the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-winner-YHHbQcKZp2Gq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-winner-YHHbQcKZp2Gq.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0065,0.9935],"probability":0.0065,"spread":0.007,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T00:29:13Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":492.30199999999996,"volume_24hr":492.30199999999996,"prob_24h_change":-0.3735,"volume_24h_change":492.30199999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.435945510864258,"normalized_volume":11.28206729888916,"liquidity":9109.17747,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T04:29:47.781230Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T04:29:47.781230Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T00:35:22.292684Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory/will-another-margin-of-victory-outcome-occur-in-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election","event_title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.38,0.27,0.215,0.22,0.205,0.185,0.18,0.145,0.14,0.185,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.015,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/950992","as_of":"2026-09-03T05:30:05.110695Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory\" — top market at 1% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}