{"source":"polymarket","id":"95246","ticker":"will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027","slug":"will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027","title":"Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.\n\nA coalition break may be evidenced by:\n– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,\n– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,\n– or the appointment of a new federal government.\n\nIf all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.\n\nIf the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”\n\nThe break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027-4st1S27o6xDY.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027-4st1S27o6xDY.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-03T17:26:27.757325Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":62832.12466000025,"volume_24hr":1096.53375,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.988651275634766,"normalized_volume":27.8638858795166,"liquidity":23141.1033,"open_interest":25084.670183,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.2,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.035,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1092.83375,"updated_at":"2026-05-27T01:43:07.077649Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T01:43:07.077649Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027","chart_24h":[3.7,3.7,3.7,3.7,3.7,3.7,3.7,3.7,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1086.27375,1096.53375,1096.53375,1096.53375,1096.53375,1096.53375,1096.53375,1096.53375],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"789950","event_id":"95246","slug":"will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027","question":"Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.\n\nA coalition break may be evidenced by:\n– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,\n– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,\n– or the appointment of a new federal government.\n\nIf all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.\n\nIf the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”\n\nThe break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027-4st1S27o6xDY.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027-4st1S27o6xDY.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.2,0.8],"probability":0.2,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-03T17:17:33.414690Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":62832.12466000025,"volume_24hr":1096.53375,"prob_24h_change":0.035,"volume_24h_change":1092.83375,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.982376098632812,"normalized_volume":35.81246566772461,"liquidity":23141.1033,"categories":["Politics","World"],"updated_at":"2026-05-27T01:30:38.854601Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T01:28:13.492723Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027","event_title":"Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?","chart_24h":[0.165,0.165,0.165,0.16,0.195,0.195,0.195,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.2]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/95246","as_of":"2026-05-27T01:46:13.440537Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?\" — top market at 20% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}