{"source":"polymarket","id":"959071","ticker":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08","title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T13:01:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-10T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":2.96,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"10 or more states","top_outcome_probability":0.505,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.176423Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.176423Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.480352Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4187874","event_id":"959071","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-10-plus","question":"Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"10 or more states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.505,0.495],"probability":0.505,"spread":0.97,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T13:01:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-10T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.56,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.546538Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-10-plus","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.505]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4187871","event_id":"959071","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-7-9","question":"Will 7-9 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"7-9 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":0.98,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T13:01:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-10T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.16,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.546538Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.546538Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.546538Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-7-9","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4187863","event_id":"959071","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-0","question":"Will no states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"0 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.495,0.505],"probability":0.495,"spread":0.97,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T13:01:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-10T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.56,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.546538Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-0","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4187865","event_id":"959071","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-1-2","question":"Will 1-2 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"1-2 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.495,0.505],"probability":0.495,"spread":0.97,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T13:01:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-10T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.56,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.546538Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-1-2","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4187867","event_id":"959071","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-3-4","question":"Will 3-4 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"3-4 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.495,0.505],"probability":0.495,"spread":0.97,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T13:01:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-10T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.56,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.546538Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-3-4","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4187869","event_id":"959071","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-5-6","question":"Will 5-6 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"5-6 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.495,0.505],"probability":0.495,"spread":0.97,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T13:01:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-10T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.56,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T14:33:06.318641Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T13:27:25.546538Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-08-5-6","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/959071","as_of":"2026-09-04T02:48:47.345364Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?\" — top market at 50% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}