{"source":"polymarket","id":"964505","ticker":"metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt","slug":"metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt","title":"Meta's \"Watermelon\" model released by...?","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta releases \"Watermelon\" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-04T14:36:04Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4812.934419,"volume_24hr":2860.874463,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.557767868041992,"normalized_volume":16.357515335083008,"liquidity":18248.6859,"open_interest":3076.54304,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"101647","slug":"meta","label":"Meta"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"106188","slug":"watermelon","label":"Watermelon"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 30","top_outcome_probability":0.855,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":41.62789900000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-09T09:30:26.796426Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T09:30:26.796426Z","added_at":"2026-09-04T14:39:59.429912Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt","chart_24h":[209.847456,209.847456,209.847456,209.847456,209.847456,209.847456,214.847456,214.847456,5.0,2017.436811,2017.436811,2208.436811,2208.436811,2208.436811,2388.271114,2398.797414,2398.797414,2398.797414,2398.797414,2398.797414,2398.797414,2398.797414,2398.797414,2399.960199,2399.960199,2399.960199,2399.960199,2497.689349,2497.689349,2497.689349,2497.689349,2497.689349,2538.1544630000003,2538.1544630000003,2860.874463,2860.874463],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4214329","event_id":"964505","slug":"metas-watermelon-released-by-november-30-2026","question":"Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 30","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta releases \"Watermelon\" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-released-by-november-30-2026-LHY8vK4nSKx3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-released-by-november-30-2026-LHY8vK4nSKx3.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.855,0.145],"probability":0.855,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-04T14:36:05Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":422.66220200000004,"volume_24hr":221.46220200000002,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":41.62789900000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.797636985778809,"normalized_volume":10.735103607177734,"liquidity":5938.0604,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T09:30:27.291438Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T09:30:27.291438Z","added_at":"2026-09-04T14:39:59.455700Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt/metas-watermelon-released-by-november-30-2026","event_title":"Meta's \"Watermelon\" model released by...?","chart_24h":[0.855,0.855,0.855,0.855,0.855]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4214327","event_id":"964505","slug":"metas-watermelon-released-by-september-30-2026","question":"Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta releases \"Watermelon\" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-released-by-september-30-2026-yotJ9iOr5-YK.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-released-by-september-30-2026-yotJ9iOr5-YK.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.045,0.955],"probability":0.045,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-04T14:36:04Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3344.264761,"volume_24hr":2639.412261,"prob_24h_change":-0.07,"volume_24h_change":2634.412261,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.06978988647461,"normalized_volume":19.322240829467773,"liquidity":6630.0343,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T09:11:30.585840Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T09:11:30.585840Z","added_at":"2026-09-04T14:39:59.455700Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt/metas-watermelon-released-by-september-30-2026","event_title":"Meta's \"Watermelon\" model released by...?","chart_24h":[0.115,0.06,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4214328","event_id":"964505","slug":"metas-watermelon-released-by-october-31-2026","question":"Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta releases \"Watermelon\" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-released-by-october-31-2026-m_jFPeldAa31.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-released-by-october-31-2026-m_jFPeldAa31.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.585,0.415],"probability":0.585,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-04T14:36:05Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1046.007456,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.186622619628906,"liquidity":3740.3067,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:44:43.549578Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:44:43.549578Z","added_at":"2026-09-04T14:39:59.455700Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt/metas-watermelon-released-by-october-31-2026","event_title":"Meta's \"Watermelon\" model released by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/964505","as_of":"2026-09-09T09:45:19.900499Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Meta's \"Watermelon\" model released by...?\" — top market at 4% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}