{"source":"polymarket","id":"976810","ticker":"when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906","slug":"when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906","title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\" If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-06T16:26:59Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1526.510447,"volume_24hr":1472.010447,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.27793312072754,"normalized_volume":12.228805541992188,"liquidity":2566.01976,"open_interest":740.82555,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"},{"id":"496","slug":"natural-disasters","label":"Natural Disasters"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"October 1 - 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.465,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":164.012014,"updated_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.668820Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.668820Z","added_at":"2026-09-06T16:38:10.431767Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906","chart_24h":[34.5,34.5,34.5,34.5,34.5,34.5,86.06,86.06,86.06,86.06,86.06,162.70122,162.70122,190.57122,190.57122,424.57122,492.104552,492.104552,537.514387,537.514387,668.228112,668.228112,797.498112,837.498112,837.498112,1247.031639,1268.031639,1320.064632,1320.064632,1320.064632],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4294627","event_id":"976810","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-october-1-and-october-31-2026","question":"Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 1 - 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\" If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.465,0.535],"probability":0.465,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-06T16:26:59Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":164.01201400000002,"volume_24hr":164.012014,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":164.012014,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.704002380371094,"normalized_volume":7.649145603179932,"liquidity":351.6556,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.934399Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.934399Z","added_at":"2026-09-06T16:38:10.536260Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906/will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-october-1-and-october-31-2026","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.465,0.485,0.45,0.465,0.465,0.475,0.445,0.455,0.455,0.445,0.455,0.42,0.43,0.425,0.535,0.505,0.51,0.44,0.445,0.44,0.43,0.425,0.46,0.455,0.48,0.545,0.455,0.46]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4294626","event_id":"976810","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-september-15-and-september-30-2026","question":"Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 15 - 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\" If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.295,0.705],"probability":0.295,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-06T16:26:59Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":64.504103,"volume_24hr":64.504103,"prob_24h_change":-0.21000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":64.504103,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.851653575897217,"normalized_volume":5.131444931030273,"liquidity":358.4272,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.934399Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.934399Z","added_at":"2026-09-06T16:38:10.536260Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906/will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-september-15-and-september-30-2026","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.505,0.465,0.495,0.475,0.465,0.46,0.44,0.435,0.465,0.47,0.49,0.505,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.445,0.41,0.35,0.525,0.375,0.385,0.34,0.33,0.325,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.295]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4294628","event_id":"976810","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-fail-to-return-to-normal-levels-before-november-1-2026","question":"Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"No return before November 1, 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\" If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.22,0.78],"probability":0.22,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-06T16:26:59Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":81.216415,"volume_24hr":61.216415,"prob_24h_change":-0.12999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":61.216415,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.659491062164307,"normalized_volume":5.704246997833252,"liquidity":968.5709,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.934399Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.934399Z","added_at":"2026-09-06T16:38:10.536260Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906/will-the-rhine-river-fail-to-return-to-normal-levels-before-november-1-2026","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.35,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.385,0.265,0.37,0.38,0.375,0.27,0.355,0.405,0.415,0.265,0.26,0.285,0.295,0.26,0.22]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4294625","event_id":"976810","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-before-september-15-2026","question":"Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before September 15, 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\" If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before November 1, 2026.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0665,0.9335],"probability":0.0665,"spread":0.033,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-06T16:26:59Z","end_date":"2026-09-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1233.3018040000002,"volume_24hr":1198.8018040000002,"prob_24h_change":0.026500000000000003,"volume_24h_change":1164.3018040000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.56583023071289,"normalized_volume":14.866063117980957,"liquidity":807.20606,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.934399Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T21:56:24.934399Z","added_at":"2026-09-06T16:38:10.536260Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906/will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-before-september-15-2026","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.04,0.0455,0.036,0.0375,0.036,0.0855,0.0905,0.095,0.094,0.0945,0.29,0.278,0.16,0.159,0.085,0.0845,0.0655,0.0805,0.126,0.092,0.114,0.1035,0.1055,0.106,0.0705,0.0705,0.0685,0.067,0.067]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/976810","as_of":"2026-09-07T22:03:23.643722Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?\" — top market at 7% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}