{"source":"polymarket","id":"999594","ticker":"will-tropical-storm-norbert-strengthen-to-a-hurricane","slug":"will-tropical-storm-norbert-strengthen-to-a-hurricane","title":"Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNorbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.\n\nReaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.\n\nIf Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to \"No\". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260-o6ofvo5bB9ak.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260-o6ofvo5bB9ak.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-10T15:23:16Z","end_date":"2026-09-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1099.8065,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"102023","slug":"hurricane","label":"hurricane"},{"id":"102186","slug":"hurricane-season","label":"Hurricane Season"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.51,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-11T04:14:22.410127Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-11T04:14:22.410127Z","added_at":"2026-09-10T15:32:57.760502Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-tropical-storm-norbert-strengthen-to-a-hurricane","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4440718","event_id":"999594","slug":"will-tropical-storm-norbert-strengthen-to-a-hurricane","question":"Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNorbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.\n\nReaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.\n\nIf Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to \"No\". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260-o6ofvo5bB9ak.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260-o6ofvo5bB9ak.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.51,0.49],"probability":0.51,"spread":0.56,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-10T15:23:16Z","end_date":"2026-09-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1099.8065,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-11T04:14:22.512229Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-11T04:14:22.512229Z","added_at":"2026-09-10T15:32:57.816111Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-tropical-storm-norbert-strengthen-to-a-hurricane/will-tropical-storm-norbert-strengthen-to-a-hurricane","event_title":"Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.535,0.525,0.495,0.52,0.51,0.535,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/999594","as_of":"2026-09-11T04:52:55.404213Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?\" — top market at 51% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}