{"source":"predict","id":"10883","ticker":"10883","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","title":"GPT-6 released by…?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/3ff6e5ad-db63-4a71-9a3d-f5566eab8e98.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-10T11:10:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":null,"volume_24hr":1195.9,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.48047637939453,"normalized_volume":16.697490692138672,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Culture"],"tags":["Tech","Culture"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.87,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.37000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-11T09:10:12.151557Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:14.720001Z","added_at":"2026-08-10T12:09:31.854523Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/gpt-6-released-by","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,159.68,1195.9,1195.9],"markets":[{"source":"predict","id":"15028","event_id":"10883","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","question":"September 30, 2026","group_item_title":"September 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T12:44:58.574606013Z","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/3ff6e5ad-db63-4a71-9a3d-f5566eab8e98.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5395,0.4605],"probability":0.5395,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-02T12:44:58.575000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":159.68,"volume_24hr":159.68,"prob_24h_change":0.038000000000000034,"volume_24h_change":159.68,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.397714614868164,"normalized_volume":8.576175689697266,"liquidity":54268.51,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:52.661971Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:14.815090Z","added_at":"2026-08-10T12:09:31.948801Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.5005,0.514,0.495,0.505,0.5045,0.51,0.5085,0.5085,0.515,0.5295,0.53,0.536,0.5385]},{"source":"predict","id":"1295260","event_id":"10883","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","question":"August 31, 2026","group_item_title":"August 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/3ff6e5ad-db63-4a71-9a3d-f5566eab8e98.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.255,0.745],"probability":0.255,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-10T11:13:43.849000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1036.22,"volume_24hr":1036.22,"prob_24h_change":0.060500000000000026,"volume_24h_change":1036.22,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.648754119873047,"normalized_volume":16.029617309570312,"liquidity":38083.35,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:52.661971Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:14.815090Z","added_at":"2026-08-10T12:09:31.948801Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.2045,0.2255,0.24,0.2,0.2155,0.221,0.2195,0.2105,0.2105,0.206,0.255,0.255,0.265]},{"source":"predict","id":"15027","event_id":"10883","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","question":"December 31, 2026","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T12:44:58.445646348Z","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/3ff6e5ad-db63-4a71-9a3d-f5566eab8e98.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.87,0.13],"probability":0.87,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-02T12:44:58.575000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.37000000000000005,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":82990.05,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:52.661971Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:14.815090Z","added_at":"2026-08-10T12:09:31.948801Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.4995,0.8795,0.875,0.88,0.8705,0.8735,0.8715,0.8705,0.8745,0.8735,0.874,0.87,0.8695]},{"source":"predict","id":"1295262","event_id":"10883","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","question":"August 21, 2026","group_item_title":"August 21, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/3ff6e5ad-db63-4a71-9a3d-f5566eab8e98.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0505,0.9495],"probability":0.0505,"spread":0.005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-10T11:13:43.849000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.464,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":65365.93,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:52.661971Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:14.815090Z","added_at":"2026-08-10T12:09:31.948801Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.52,0.072,0.0745,0.0485,0.0585,0.0545,0.054,0.0545,0.056,0.056,0.056,0.0555,0.056]},{"source":"predict","id":"1295261","event_id":"10883","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","question":"August 14, 2026","group_item_title":"August 14, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/3ff6e5ad-db63-4a71-9a3d-f5566eab8e98.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0155,0.9845],"probability":0.0155,"spread":0.027,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-10T11:13:43.849000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.981,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":33176.7,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:52.661971Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-11T09:09:14.815090Z","added_at":"2026-08-10T12:09:31.948801Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.996,0.039,0.039,0.008,0.009,0.014,0.009,0.0155,0.006,0.0115,0.0065,0.006,0.015]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/predict/10883","as_of":"2026-08-11T09:19:03.248371Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Predict): \"GPT-6 released by…?\" — top market at 26% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}