{"source":"predict","id":"420946","ticker":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["Tech","AI"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"↑ 1540","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.166286Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.166286Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.516168Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"predict","id":"1850138","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1540","group_item_title":"↑ 1540","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.01],"probability":0.99,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":412.9,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850139","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1550","group_item_title":"↑ 1550","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.01],"probability":0.99,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1517.77,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850140","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1600","group_item_title":"↑ 1600","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.01],"probability":0.99,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":4950.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.99,0.99,0.07,0.07,0.99]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850141","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1650","group_item_title":"↑ 1650","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.01],"probability":0.99,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":2574.79,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.76,0.76,0.99]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850142","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1700","group_item_title":"↑ 1700","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.99,0.01],"probability":0.99,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1848.03,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850136","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1520","group_item_title":"↑ 1520","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.465,0.535],"probability":0.465,"spread":0.41,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.034999999999999976,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":95.03,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.7,0.265,0.425,0.425,0.71,0.99,0.51,0.465,0.465,0.465]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850137","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1530","group_item_title":"↑ 1530","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.27,0.73],"probability":0.27,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":16875.06,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T06:21:41.322706Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/predict/420946","as_of":"2026-09-01T06:44:57.124034Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Predict): \"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?\" — top market at 99% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}