{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/predict/420946","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:33:26.134376Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Predict): \"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?\" — 7 markets; highest \"↑ 1540\" at 47% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/predict/420946","source_url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31"},"source":"predict","id":"420946","ticker":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1350.7199999999998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.216333389282227,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["Tech","AI"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"↑ 1540","top_outcome_probability":0.47,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:09.811798Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:09.811798Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.516168Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":7,"markets":[{"source":"predict","id":"1850136","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1520","group_item_title":"↑ 1520","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.44,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-24T06:55:35.481741Z","result":"yes","volume":696.81,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.203156471252441,"liquidity":65.2,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850137","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1530","group_item_title":"↑ 1530","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.06,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-24T06:55:35.481741Z","result":"yes","volume":653.91,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.929235458374023,"liquidity":17.57,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850138","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1540","group_item_title":"↑ 1540","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.34,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":113.05,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.49,0.465,0.485,0.485,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.475,0.475,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850139","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1550","group_item_title":"↑ 1550","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.41,0.59],"probability":0.41,"spread":0.46,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.5,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":499.95,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.535,0.535,0.99,0.83,0.99,0.99,0.91,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.91,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.415,0.41]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850140","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1600","group_item_title":"↑ 1600","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":730.26,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.12,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.85,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.125,0.12]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850142","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1700","group_item_title":"↑ 1700","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":4461.34,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.11,0.33,0.32,0.99,0.99,0.3,0.24,0.99,0.72,0.23,0.99,0.99,0.23,0.69,0.24,0.1,0.1]},{"source":"predict","id":"1850141","event_id":"420946","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","question":"↑ 1650","group_item_title":"↑ 1650","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/97ff6972-a077-4025-8f17-da94a0c0ac3f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.91],"probability":0.09,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T09:09:48.270000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":552.09,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:40:10.250513Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T14:40:20.716987Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.09,0.75,0.31,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.09,0.09]}]}