{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/predict/431491","as_of":"2026-10-17T14:19:11.212512Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Predict): \"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?\" — 7 markets; highest \"December 31\" at 98% as of 2026-10-17 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/predict/431491","source_url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt"},"source":"predict","id":"431491","ticker":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-15T13:05:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9127.029999999999,"volume_24hr":9070.58,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.77476119995117,"normalized_volume":27.56844711303711,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["Tech","AI"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.98,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.046661Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.046661Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:53.911078Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","chart_24h":[56.45,56.45,56.45,56.45,56.45,56.45,56.45,56.45,56.45,56.45,438.93,438.93,634.0699999999999,587.6199999999999,591.08,9070.58,9070.58],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":7,"markets":[{"source":"predict","id":"2846816","event_id":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","question":"October 17","group_item_title":"October 17","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.97,0.03],"probability":0.97,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T14:55:12.969000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":99.06,"volume_24hr":99.06,"prob_24h_change":0.9249999999999999,"volume_24h_change":99.06,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.050166130065918,"normalized_volume":7.0325422286987305,"liquidity":2782.6,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:54.049648Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","event_title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","chart_24h":[0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.48,0.97,0.97]},{"source":"predict","id":"1936575","event_id":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","question":"October 31","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.81,0.19],"probability":0.81,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T00:14:40.237000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":5505.28,"volume_24hr":5505.28,"prob_24h_change":-0.05999999999999994,"volume_24h_change":5505.28,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.14658737182617,"normalized_volume":24.59697723388672,"liquidity":1338.88,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:54.049648Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","event_title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","chart_24h":[0.865,0.865,0.865,0.865,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.825,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.825,0.84,0.81]},{"source":"predict","id":"2846815","event_id":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","question":"October 24","group_item_title":"October 24","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.73,0.27],"probability":0.73,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T14:55:12.969000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":3257.64,"volume_24hr":3257.64,"prob_24h_change":-0.07000000000000006,"volume_24h_change":3257.64,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.169368743896484,"normalized_volume":21.692245483398438,"liquidity":2507.78,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:54.049648Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","event_title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","chart_24h":[0.81,0.77,0.77,0.765,0.745,0.725,0.72,0.72,0.725,0.73,0.735,0.735,0.735,0.735,0.735,0.735,0.735]},{"source":"predict","id":"3318885","event_id":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","question":"October 21","group_item_title":"October 21","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-14T14:53:45.552000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":265.05,"volume_24hr":208.6,"prob_24h_change":-0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":152.14999999999998,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.229928970336914,"normalized_volume":10.335929870605469,"liquidity":1639.46,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:54.049648Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","event_title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.485,0.415,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.415,0.43,0.415,0.415,0.43,0.435,0.685,0.395,0.455,0.46]},{"source":"predict","id":"1936578","event_id":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","question":"December 31","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.98,0.02],"probability":0.98,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T00:14:40.237000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":42257.14,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:54.049648Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","event_title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","chart_24h":[0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98]},{"source":"predict","id":"3295965","event_id":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","question":"October 16","group_item_title":"October 16","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.02,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-10-13T18:35:45.552000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":"no","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.05,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:54.049648Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","event_title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","chart_24h":[0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.99,0.99,0.04,0.05,0.3,0.3,0.99,0.99,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"predict","id":"3295966","event_id":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","question":"October 15","group_item_title":"October 15","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-10-13T18:35:45.552000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":"no","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T14:09:24.327122Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:54.049648Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","event_title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}]}