{"items":[{"source":"myriad","id":"120473","ticker":null,"slug":"crude-oil-s-next-move-pump-to-120-or-dump-to-55","title":"Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?","description":"### **Market Details:**\n\n- **Market Close:** This market will only be closed once a resolution is achieved.\n- **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined as soon as an outcome is reached.\n- **Pump Target:** 120.000\n- **Dump Target**: 55.000\n\n### **Resolution Criteria:**\n\n- The market resolves based on which condition is met first:\n  - **“$120”** if the Crude Oil WTI (USD/Bbl) at Trading Economics reaches or exceeds the Pump Target.\n  - **“$55”** if the Crude Oil WTI (USD/Bbl) at Trading Economics drops to equal or below the Dump Target.\n\n### **Resolution Details:**\n\n- The market resolves based on the one-minute (1m) price updates on the Crude Oil WTI (USD/Bbl) chart on the Trading Economics website.\n- Only the Crude Oil WTI (USD/Bbl) on Trading Economics will be considered.\n\n### **Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:**\n\n- The [Crude Oil WTI (USD/Bbl) at Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil) becomes unavailable, compromised, or fails to update for seven days straight.\n- Any circumstance prevents reliable price tracking.\n- Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancellation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change.\n\nIn the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/QmYWuwsHv8ZRYthkFc5SF7DZNTfqv8pvG1mJRKW2uzFP2M","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/e11bc0f6-a97f-4e7b-981e-2340057bb700/public","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-11T15:04:29Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T00:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11355278.93015154,"volume_24hr":36890.7138769,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":88.40927124023438,"liquidity":1500.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economy"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.51296657,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?","top_outcome_probability":0.51296657,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0065518399999999755,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20667.525095700003,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:26:46.825642Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:26:46.825642Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/crude-oil-s-next-move-pump-to-120-or-dump-to-55","chart_24h":[0.50641473,0.50641473,0.50677526,0.50677537,0.50677537,0.49028168,0.49625348,0.49625348,0.49625348,0.49625348,0.49625348,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552564,0.49552568,0.53403414,0.51296657,0.51296657,0.51296657,0.51296657,0.51296657,0.51296657]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"287395","ticker":"fed-decision-in-july-181","slug":"fed-decision-in-july-181","title":"Fed Decision in July?","description":"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-20T00:12:28.430927Z","end_date":"2026-07-29T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":91753325.31313422,"volume_24hr":2947392.8183310004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":94.2450942993164,"normalized_volume":68.2767333984375,"liquidity":4268612.41468,"open_interest":17985965.306427,"categories":["Economy","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"101550","slug":"jerome-powell","label":"Jerome Powell"},{"id":"100478","slug":"fomc","label":"fomc"},{"id":"159","slug":"fed","label":"Fed"},{"id":"100196","slug":"fed-rates","label":"Fed Rates"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105614","slug":"cpi-release","label":"CPI Release"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No change","top_outcome_probability":0.7455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014999999999999902,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-103918.07620100072,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181","chart_24h":[2665155.9037899976,2523446.8234079992,2401563.124351,2282472.3233450013,2157398.7229760005,2388025.505881,2373135.739233001,2301232.4320880007,2342933.854929,2392444.025598999,3229748.410386999,3219846.8322689994,3208070.779372999,3176128.237501999,3113588.5968409986,3050756.543791999,3050714.2280519987,3010545.494716998,2933134.975188998,2938731.0027859984,3019980.8353499984,2990460.965605999,2993444.1346519985,3010991.870742998,3046013.580957999,3080826.8720179987,3179841.4537269985,3197063.273468998,3203015.095282998,3137216.9680809984,3120143.6599999983,3091703.6364259967,3135973.250820997]},{"source":"gemini","id":"151576","ticker":"NDXH26072420","slug":"nasdaq-100-price-range-on-july-24-2026-at-4pm-edt","title":"Nasdaq-100 price range on July 24, 2026 at 4pm EDT","description":"Nasdaq-100 price range on July 24, 2026 at 4pm EDT","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-20T20:42:47.672000Z","end_date":"2026-07-24T20:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15884.0,"volume_24hr":13087.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":74.84947204589844,"normalized_volume":58.534244537353516,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"28,000 to 28,099.99","top_outcome_probability":0.41,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.36,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T20:37:09.100440Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T20:37:09.100440Z","added_at":"2026-07-20T20:51:44.936667Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/NDXH26072420/nasdaq-100-price-range-on-july-24-2026-at-4pm-edt","chart_24h":[7234.0,7644.0,7880.0,8694.0,8713.0,11749.0,11379.0,11989.0,12739.0,12886.0,13222.0,13157.0,13087.0,13087.0]},{"source":"predict","id":"29370","ticker":"29370","slug":"fed-decision-in-july-181","title":"Fed Decision in July?","description":"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/fed-decision-in-july-181","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-22T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1171217.65,"volume_24hr":95736.81999999993,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":74.82691192626953,"normalized_volume":64.95995330810547,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economy","Fed"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No change","top_outcome_probability":0.747,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.019000000000000017,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":25215.55999999994,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:41:28.233254Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:28:02.815672Z","added_at":"2026-06-22T15:52:01.167464Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/fed-decision-in-july-181","chart_24h":[43482.780000000035,40605.41000000001,42083.419999999955,42811.40999999999,70619.12999999993,71805.02000000009,77424.16000000003,85386.16999999993,84406.0199999999,74208.72000000007,80330.39999999997,80169.50999999994,79908.62999999999,92439.67999999995,97432.09000000001,97852.68000000004,95568.78000000007,99542.25999999995,98852.40999999993,95736.81999999993]},{"source":"myriad","id":"741","ticker":null,"slug":"will-spacex-s-ipo-closing-market-cap-be-above-1-3-trillion","title":"Will SpaceX’s IPO Closing Market Cap be above $1.3 Trillion?","description":"### **Market Details:**\n\n- **Market Close:** This market will close prior to the IPO of SpaceX, and will be adjusted to this once the date is officially announced.\n- **Resolution Time:** The resolution will be determined as soon as SpaceX’s stock has completed its first day of public trading.\n- **Market Target:** $1,300,000,000,000 (1.3 Trillion USD).\n\n### **Resolution Criteria:**\n\n- Resolves to “**Yes**\" if the closing market cap of SpaceX is above the Market Target at the end of its first day of public trading.\n- Resolves to \"**No**\" if not.\n\n### **Resolution Details:**\n\n- This market will resolve based on the official data from Nasdaq.\n- In case SpaceX doesn’t begin trading on Nasdaq, the resolution source will be adapted to the stock exchange it begins trading on instead.\n- Only the market capitalization of SpaceX at the stock market close of its first day of trading is of subject to this market.\n- Market capitalization refers to the product of the total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first day the stock is traded.\n- In case the primary resolution source does not report on the market cap or the number of outstanding shares then official SpaceX communications or a media consensus of credible reporting will be used to determine the amount of outstanding shares.\n- If normal trading on SpaceX’s first trading day is disrupted (for example, due to a circuit breaker or a shortened session), the market will settle based on the official closing price from that shortened session. If no official closing price is issued, the market will instead settle using the official closing price from the next trading day on which one is published, which will be considered the first trading day.\n\n### **Cancellation Conditions:**\n\n- SpaceX doesn’t IPO before 2028.\n- Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome.\n- Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancellation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change.\n\nIn the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/QmWBBk7WaB42n1VSaCKN62pk65hksovDFACn9QAQSHwNE4","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/d74b4511-fb18-442b-8d3a-77f1a854d400/public","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-13T17:19:27Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T00:01:00Z","closed_time":"2100-01-01T00:01:00Z","volume":33300.602079,"volume_24hr":8346.738303,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":73.73458099365234,"normalized_volume":36.3270263671875,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economy"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will SpaceX’s IPO Closing Market Cap be above $1.3 Trillion?","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-13T16:25:16.806307Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-13T16:25:16.806307Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/will-spacex-s-ipo-closing-market-cap-be-above-1-3-trillion","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXFEDDECISION-26JUL","ticker":"KXFEDDECISION-26JUL","slug":"KXFEDDECISION-26JUL","title":"Fed decision in Jul 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-29T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-28T18:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36676735.86,"volume_24hr":1531209.13,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":71.06173706054688,"normalized_volume":67.78996276855469,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":27394685.04,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Fed maintains rate","top_outcome_probability":0.76,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-176462.76,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:47:14.845743Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:47:14.845743Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-decision-in-jul-2026/kxfeddecision-26jul","chart_24h":[1661842.05,1622714.61,1527831.79,1303703.47,1222254.3,1217847.4300000002,1509940.74,1576790.5899999999,1662348.06,1832361.66,1836049.0,1828363.83,1831491.8699999999,1865541.91,1830769.09,1804332.1199999999,1801367.25,1796543.04,1770164.4,1745558.6600000001,1711517.45,1700313.26,1599918.59,1603219.28,1596608.1099999999,1602325.45,1619066.5,1617384.78,1624006.78,1605387.83,1621089.93,1603657.58,1567611.3299999998,1531209.13]},{"source":"manifold","id":"csqpIqLA8t","ticker":null,"slug":"will-bitcoin-be-higher-7-days-from-PI6OUEgURQ","title":"Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?","description":"OPEN 65,834.44\n\nStart 2:30 PM EDT 7/22/2026\n\nEND 2:30 PM EDT 7/29/2026\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is higher exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the market is created than it was at the exact time of creation. If the price is lower than or equal to the price at creation, the market resolves to NO.\n\nPrimary Source: CoinGecko's Bitcoin (BTC) page (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin)\n\nFallback Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/)\n\nTiming: The price comparison is determined using the price at the market's exact creation timestamp ($T_0$) versus the price exactly 168 hours later ($T_0 + 168$ hours). If precise minute-by-minute historical data is inaccessible on the resolution date, the closest available hourly data points provided by the primary source will be used.\n\nBackground\n\nBitcoin (BTC) is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency and remains the largest by market capitalization. Its valuation is highly volatile and driven by shifting macroeconomic factors, ETF inflows and outflows, halving cycles, and general market liquidity. Short-term 7-day price movements are commonly traded based on technical analysis, regulatory news, and liquidations.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-22T18:24:49.954000Z","end_date":"2026-07-29T18:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5400.3487093061185,"volume_24hr":3480.399938001774,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":70.56298065185547,"normalized_volume":27.697359085083008,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["economics-default","prices","finance","bitcoin","crypto-speculation"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.3,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?","top_outcome_probability":0.3,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.09242500000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1387.6048921216761,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T20:13:50.076573Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-higher-7-days-from-PI6OUEgURQ","chart_24h":[0.392425,0.392042,0.435201,0.42,0.5,0.368319,0.393502,0.393502,0.393502,0.3014,0.33786,0.331812,0.324114,0.298536,0.3]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"630845","ticker":"largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192302727","slug":"largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192302727","title":"Largest Company end of July?","description":"This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T21:19:04.814357Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4209595.358769998,"volume_24hr":288496.51459000004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":66.8234634399414,"normalized_volume":47.253578186035156,"liquidity":1374177.05761,"open_interest":1180973.935862,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy","Finance","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"NVIDIA","top_outcome_probability":0.765,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.11499999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":106150.54282800005,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:53.537322Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:53.537322Z","added_at":"2026-06-24T21:45:39.463257Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192302727","chart_24h":[301855.41417400003,301345.644068,301428.665775,300341.13726,312174.557057,323999.382636,318511.07271999994,310821.1398169999,295678.7822549999,310206.9170279998,303579.05733499984,354546.2698769999,357172.3064289999,387372.49217299983,397532.7971689999,401608.3916589999,352350.86580599996,352595.694862,352792.554449,350460.972949,347463.67911600013,348297.9548540001,352923.0350110001,350842.8169390001,258418.3200240001,254697.4003760001,254650.22451400012,254208.0205020001,252092.9081200001,278202.0424450001,290119.1321660001,290656.6129900001,295280.1416300001]},{"source":"opinion","id":"78","ticker":"78","slug":"how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","title":"How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0x395262af55dbae5f1a7c3e174983dd9d38c830997a54ed4d0f36baeb49f366af","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-02T14:55:02Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":101156547.699,"volume_24hr":87279.973,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.9040412902832,"normalized_volume":83.8667221069336,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Business","Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"2 (50 bps)","top_outcome_probability":0.991,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T09:15:35.337416Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T09:15:35.337416Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","chart_24h":[129616.1835,129616.1835,87279.973]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"455867","ticker":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-11T13:14:49.964000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20421105.538354263,"volume_24hr":150200.69427900005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.83634948730469,"normalized_volume":57.54718780517578,"liquidity":620124.63054,"open_interest":3680547.80628,"categories":["Politics","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104130","slug":"ships","label":"ships"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"},{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0055,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-474778.4090270002,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","added_at":"2026-05-11T13:18:58.934604Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","chart_24h":[612768.736064,604267.1821680001,543842.3415960001,507886.7067379999,524782.768528,525476.8655339999,494840.76165,491132.10347300005,526490.3811410001,488991.878672,475223.94065100007,461301.25285499985,461902.7395209999,449983.21225099993,442258.01679699996,435884.52770999994,437003.9895759999,412288.7664729998,412374.3431389999,408688.9396039999,399218.2252169999,327859.9029959998,322776.2490519998,254759.91238499992,222351.35538499994,208473.49039199998,201646.89609699996,189986.14209700003,189148.83443800002,190032.55974600004,155928.12634600006,156575.04467900007,150090.24427900006]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hcEczypgqu","ticker":null,"slug":"would-freddie-deboer-win-his-propos","title":"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?","description":"Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )\n\nLet's say that they did agree under those original conditions. Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.\n\nThis resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.\n\nThis resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.\n\nBet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)\n\nFor me to win the wager, all of the following must be true on Feb 14, 2029:\n\nLabor Market:\n\nThe U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%\n\nLabor force participation rate, ages 25-54, is equal to or greater than 68%\n\nNo single BLS occupational category will have lost 50% or more of jobs between now and February 14th 2029\n\nEconomic Growth & Productivity:\n\nU.S. GDP is within -30% to +35% of February 2026 levels (inflation-adjusted)\n\nNonfarm labor productivity growth has not exceeded 8% in any individual year or 20% for the three-year period\n\nPrices & Markets:\n\nThe S&P 500 is within -60% to +225% of the February 2026 level\n\nCPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually\n\nCorporate & Structural:\n\nThe Fortune 500 median profit margin is between 2% and 35%\n\nThe largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap\n\nWhite Collar & Knowledge Workers:\n\n“Professional and Business Services” employment, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 35% from February 2026\n\nCombined employment in software developers, accountants, lawyers, consultants, and writers, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 45%\n\nMedian wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026\n\nThe college wage premium (median earnings of bachelor's degree holders vs high school only) has not fallen below 30%\n\nInequality:\n\nThe Gini coefficient is less than 0.60\n\nThe top 1%’s income share is less than 35%\n\nThe top 0.1% wealth share is less than 30%\n\nMedian household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income\n\nThose are the bet conditions. If any one of those conditions is not met, if any of those statements are untrue on February 14th 2029, I lose the bet. If all of those statements remain true on February 14th 2029, I win the bet. That’s the wager.\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-14T17:26:26.258000Z","end_date":"2029-02-14T17:23:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43742.8480349543,"volume_24hr":1701.6839203268905,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.728660583496094,"normalized_volume":42.819915771484375,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["economics-default","ai","technology-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.6,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?","top_outcome_probability":0.6,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04561700000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1701.6839203268905,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/would-freddie-deboer-win-his-propos","chart_24h":[0.645617,0.645617,0.648987,0.51,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6]},{"source":"myriad","id":"725","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionaire-before-q4","title":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before Q4?","description":"### **Market Dates:**\n\n- **Market Period:** From the market’s publication until September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Market Close:** September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Resolution Time:** After Market Close or earlier if the outcome is determined.\n- **Market Target:** USD 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion US dollars)\n\n### **Yes/No Criteria:**\n\n- Resolves to “**Yes**” if Elon Musk’s estimated net worth reaches or exceeds the Market Target at any point during the Market Period.\n- Resolves to “**No**” if Elon Musk’s net worth does not reach the Market Target during the Market Period.\n\n### **Resolution Conditions:**\n\n- The market resolves based solely on whether the USD 1 trillion threshold is reached at any point during the Market Period.\n- Temporary spikes or brief crossings of the threshold do count, provided they are shown on the resolution source.\n- Updates, estimates, or reports published after the Market Close do not affect the outcome.\n- Media coverage from **Bloomberg, CNN, AP News, and Reuters** may be used as **secondary resolution sources** if it consistently reports that the threshold has been reached.\n\n### **Cancellation Conditions:**\n\n- If resolution sources become unavailable or unreliable, making it impossible to determine Elon Musk’s net worth during the Market Period.\n- Structural changes to the resolution source prevent reliable identification of the net worth figure.\n\nIf the market is cancelled, participants may reclaim their positions at the market value of their shares at the time of cancellation.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/QmaeATXWmz5YpzvseWrVAxSQ4sqGxjneSmFt4HGUi8SLAg","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/e288d1ce-da0e-4b86-c25c-7bd3ba042f00/public","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-09T14:53:19Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","volume":29380.297003,"volume_24hr":3063.457591,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.2766227722168,"normalized_volume":35.45843505859375,"liquidity":1500.005013,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economy"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before Q4?","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-13T16:25:16.806307Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-13T16:25:16.806307Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionaire-before-q4","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0]},{"source":"gemini","id":"103662","ticker":"FED260729","slug":"fed-decision-in-july","title":"Fed decision in July?","description":"Fed decision in July?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/fed_Contract_Image_c958eeb6-f028-4cc4-975a-6de8cdcd6ada.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-22T16:49:59.688000Z","end_date":"2026-07-29T18:05:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":97923.0,"volume_24hr":3566.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.72804260253906,"normalized_volume":82.61580657958984,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Fed"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Fed maintains rate","top_outcome_probability":0.78,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T02:45:52.092243Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T02:45:52.092243Z","added_at":"2026-06-22T17:02:31.933844Z","url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FED260729/fed-decision-in-july","chart_24h":[98.0,53.0,115.0,1543.0,1534.0,1629.0,1755.0,3585.0,3573.0,3566.0]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"413680","ticker":"bank-of-russia-decision-in-july","slug":"bank-of-russia-decision-in-july","title":"Bank of Russia decision in July?","description":"This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bank-of-russia-decision-in-february-m717beK5QxQC.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bank-of-russia-decision-in-february-m717beK5QxQC.jpg","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-24T21:48:43.814839Z","end_date":"2026-07-24T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-24T12:43:42Z","volume":481175.9200019993,"volume_24hr":88966.211708,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.70061111450195,"normalized_volume":34.77199935913086,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":202300.39906,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"103176","slug":"Global-Rates","label":"Global Rates"},{"id":"131","slug":"interest-rates","label":"interest rates"},{"id":"102998","slug":"bor","label":"BOR"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Decrease","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2908.7054489999937,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T12:58:40.300147Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T12:58:40.300147Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-russia-decision-in-july","chart_24h":[101559.383851,101449.37718499999,88413.293967,88966.211708]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"51456","ticker":"how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","slug":"how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","title":"How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025-9qstZkSL1dn0.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025-9qstZkSL1dn0.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-29T22:24:45.988997Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":44779894.64368982,"volume_24hr":88002.165224,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.644676208496094,"normalized_volume":63.04143524169922,"liquidity":2518320.75339,"open_interest":1646252.430657,"categories":["Business","Economy","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"103151","slug":"rewards-200-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec"},{"id":"100196","slug":"fed-rates","label":"Fed Rates"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"159","slug":"fed","label":"Fed"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"101550","slug":"jerome-powell","label":"Jerome Powell"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"0 (0 bps)","top_outcome_probability":0.8475,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0040000000000000036,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6558.437319000002,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","chart_24h":[60487.96543799999,80477.162338,80941.486898,82723.182732,86862.328532,86512.096136,89691.831805,89637.455502,89611.460635,92649.410079,92512.826645,94784.402023,94191.338592,95791.811093,92943.09249899999,96736.181999,101899.594247,102110.024914,101890.055914,101442.935914,101513.78973199999,101647.591982,95955.73135799999,95319.735628,92601.691089,90895.064285,88528.36855500001,89173.740644,88772.544266,86402.930138,89783.615231,88815.907225,88449.222391]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"455875","ticker":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-11T13:03:57.905316Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5919036.838006991,"volume_24hr":85375.918046,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.34880065917969,"normalized_volume":49.39082336425781,"liquidity":297456.0811,"open_interest":1485320.957255,"categories":["Politics","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104130","slug":"ships","label":"ships"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran 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Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.515,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-82968.86464599997,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","added_at":"2026-05-11T13:04:48.315040Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","chart_24h":[168719.62513899998,170444.26474199997,167500.39922999995,167592.70692099995,164545.50692099996,161829.75692099996,167819.58367199995,156991.60779299994,157198.13779299994,155896.54051099997,156979.88541399996,154932.67611499995,154983.71149799996,158100.20149799995,158107.37457299995,155893.79614299996,52068.20070499999,48515.96412399999,48089.71667999999,44413.680016,32722.605667000003,33878.25716,35228.207160000005,41055.63716,40955.63716,37251.78716,36828.378998,36827.396142,39027.938450999995,38424.64518700001,85732.36641000002,85955.127837,85759.76049300001]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXAAAGASW-26JUL27","ticker":"KXAAAGASW-26JUL27","slug":"KXAAAGASW-26JUL27","title":"US 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This market will close prior to the IPO of SpaceX, and will be adjusted to this once the date is officially announced.\n- **Resolution Time:** The resolution will be determined as soon as SpaceX’s stock has completed its first day of public trading.\n- **Market Target:** $1,300,000,000,000 (1.3 Trillion USD).\n\n### **Resolution Criteria:**\n\n- Resolves to “**Yes**\" if the closing market cap of SpaceX is above the Market Target at the end of its first day of public trading.\n- Resolves to \"**No**\" if not.\n\n### **Resolution Details:**\n\n- This market will resolve based on the official data from Nasdaq.\n- In case SpaceX doesn’t begin trading on Nasdaq, the resolution source will be adapted to the stock exchange it begins trading on instead.\n- Only the market capitalization of SpaceX at the stock market close of its first day of trading is of subject to this market.\n- Market capitalization refers to the product of the total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first day the stock is traded.\n- In case the primary resolution source does not report on the market cap or the number of outstanding shares then official SpaceX communications or a media consensus of credible reporting will be used to determine the amount of outstanding shares.\n- If normal trading on SpaceX’s first trading day is disrupted (for example, due to a circuit breaker or a shortened session), the market will settle based on the official closing price from that shortened session. If no official closing price is issued, the market will instead settle using the official closing price from the next trading day on which one is published, which will be considered the first trading day.\n\n### **Cancellation Conditions:**\n\n- SpaceX doesn’t IPO before 2028.\n- Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome.\n- Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancellation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change.\n\nIn the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/QmWBBk7WaB42n1VSaCKN62pk65hksovDFACn9QAQSHwNE4","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/d74b4511-fb18-442b-8d3a-77f1a854d400/public","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-13T18:28:31Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T00:01:00Z","closed_time":"2100-01-01T00:01:00Z","volume":12151.08157962,"volume_24hr":2244.41163706,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.84893035888672,"normalized_volume":29.633930206298828,"liquidity":1000.00008103,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economy"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will SpaceX’s IPO Closing Market Cap be above $1.3 Trillion?","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-12T22:05:18.279540Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-12T22:05:18.279540Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/will-spacex-s-ipo-closing-market-cap-be-above-1-3-trillion-76c0b6d2-3421-43fe-bbd1-9cbfde308933","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0]},{"source":"myriad","id":"22426","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionaire-before-q4-bec05e23-6ce5-44b2-9881-a43428fb0613","title":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before Q4?","description":"### **Market Dates:**\n\n- **Market Period:** From the market’s publication until September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Market Close:** September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Resolution Time:** After Market Close or earlier if the outcome is determined.\n- **Market Target:** USD 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion US dollars)\n\n### **Yes/No Criteria:**\n\n- Resolves to “**Yes**” if Elon Musk’s estimated net worth reaches or exceeds the Market Target at any point during the Market Period.\n- Resolves to “**No**” if Elon Musk’s net worth does not reach the Market Target during the Market Period.\n\n### **Resolution Conditions:**\n\n- The market resolves based solely on whether the USD 1 trillion threshold is reached at any point during the Market Period.\n- Temporary spikes or brief crossings of the threshold do count, provided they are shown on the resolution source.\n- Updates, estimates, or reports published after the Market Close do not affect the outcome.\n- Media coverage from **Bloomberg, CNN, AP News, and Reuters** may be used as **secondary resolution sources** if it consistently reports that the threshold has been reached.\n\n### **Cancellation Conditions:**\n\n- If resolution sources become unavailable or unreliable, making it impossible to determine Elon Musk’s net worth during the Market Period.\n- Structural changes to the resolution source prevent reliable identification of the net worth figure.\n\nIf the market is cancelled, participants may reclaim their positions at the market value of their shares at the time of cancellation.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/QmaeATXWmz5YpzvseWrVAxSQ4sqGxjneSmFt4HGUi8SLAg","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/e288d1ce-da0e-4b86-c25c-7bd3ba042f00/public","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-13T18:26:08Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","volume":29984.46772457,"volume_24hr":2022.16051238,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.404090881347656,"normalized_volume":35.598876953125,"liquidity":1500.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economy"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before 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4.065","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.040000000000000036,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":13979.65,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T04:09:49.503284Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:09:49.503284Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T12:08:50.558292Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaaagasd/us-gas-prices-tomorrow/kxaaagasd-26jul25","chart_24h":[0.0,4183.85,29056.95,43277.18,47728.01,50074.62,52662.91,58162.4,65552.11,67890.53,70042.73,75253.9,77473.38,83018.63,90467.1,98249.99,102559.17,121950.85,133514.05,150693.41,166987.52,184817.62,202863.63]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9t2ZEdZqtR","ticker":"9t2ZEdZqtR","slug":"sum-int-trillion-dollar-market-cap","title":"Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies","description":"Essentially full trillion dollar market cap companies.\n\nUses https://companiesmarketcap.com/ as the source.\n\n\nThe \"Int\" function rounds down to the number of whole trillion dollars\nAt the time of creating this question on 18 Aug 2025, the list at the source above was\n\n1 NVIDIA NVDA $4.429 T\n\n2 Microsoft MSFT $3.839 T\n\n3 Apple AAPL $3.427 T\n\n4 Alphabet (Google) GOOG$2.460 T\n\n5 Amazon AMZN $2.458 T\n\n6 Meta Platforms (Facebook) META $1.921 T\n\n7 Saudi Aramco 2222.SR $1.555 T\n\n8 Broadcom AVGO $1.417 T\n\n9 TSMC TSM $1.249 T\n\n10 Tesla TSLA $1.075 T\n\n11 Berkshire Hathaway BRK-B $1.030 T\n\n12 Walmart WMT $802.43 B\n\n.\nWalmart does not have a market cap of a trillion US$ so does not count. However higher ranked companies do have $1T or more market cap. In this case there are 11 and after rounding down these are added as 4+3+3+2+2+1+1+1+1+1+1 =20\n\nThe format hopefully allows sensible order with a-z sort to group by > numbers. \nSort by oldest should group sensibly by month (at present this works though if I need to add other answers for previous months that could spoil this and I may reword answers in order to sort by month alphabetically.) \nI will try to keep the > numbers a consistent colour.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-18T16:07:39.666000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T21:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96312.9435326216,"volume_24hr":1085.9859580749323,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.8570442199707,"normalized_volume":49.37874984741211,"liquidity":8100.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Business","Economy","Finance"],"tags":["business","economics-default","companies","stocks","tech-stocks"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":">17.5 at end of 2025/11","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:21:32.063409Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:21:32.063409Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T13:51:54.440138Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/sum-int-trillion-dollar-market-cap","chart_24h":[364.6249413052997,370.7549413052997,600.7549413052998,535.8522025964953,692.4761553577254,642.4761553577254,1065.5710634150696,1065.5710634150696,1085.9859580749323]},{"source":"predict","id":"1610","ticker":"1610","slug":"fed-rate-hike-in-2026","title":"Fed rate hike in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/fed-rate-hike-in-2026","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T14:57:14.030000Z","end_date":"2026-12-09T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5823958.87,"volume_24hr":13804.989999999292,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.692203521728516,"normalized_volume":80.7284927368164,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economy","Rates","Fed"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Fed rate hike in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.701,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2598.439999998547,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:41:28.233254Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:28:05.712471Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://predict.fun/market/fed-rate-hike-in-2026","chart_24h":[11206.550000000745,11616.090000000782,12087.299999999814,11965.099999999627,16508.44000000041,16529.31000000052,16578.790000000037,16604.519999999553,9469.02999999933,7309.479999999516,8281.990000000224,8268.139999999665,8224.990000000224,8219.120000000112,7840.359999999404,7840.359999999404,7858.3100000005215,7848.609999999404,14093.399999999441,13804.989999999292]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"101936","ticker":"fed-rate-hike-in-2026","slug":"fed-rate-hike-in-2026","title":"Fed rate hike in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be 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world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T22:12:19.853574Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":438260.95489500015,"volume_24hr":39207.271121,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.10216522216797,"normalized_volume":34.272979736328125,"liquidity":210031.92403,"open_interest":81459.62805200003,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy","Finance","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big 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Decision in September?","description":"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-13T21:23:09.737806Z","end_date":"2026-09-16T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4332484.006298004,"volume_24hr":32546.352197999997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.743831634521484,"normalized_volume":47.428993225097656,"liquidity":549850.31558,"open_interest":1348489.613099,"categories":["Politics","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"100478","slug":"fomc","label":"fomc"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"100196","slug":"fed-rates","label":"Fed Rates"},{"id":"101550","slug":"jerome-powell","label":"Jerome Powell"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"159","slug":"fed","label":"Fed"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"25 bps increase","top_outcome_probability":0.535,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-12698.622482000008,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","added_at":"2026-05-13T21:40:18.173643Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762","chart_24h":[79132.069901,73907.247567,73944.730858,63789.699712,62773.74194000001,62894.078443000006,66582.523203,57973.777962,51438.627962000006,38770.520169999996,37299.907341,37299.907341,40543.725492,39628.116862,38693.798768,39281.873531,39264.033531,38308.773531,38308.052763,36842.263977,31414.904402,28723.713125000002,28475.778035000003,29271.810868000004,31250.090868000003,30985.975279000002,30792.995279,30805.275278999998,30773.375279,31193.842088999998,31258.216390999998,29964.777368,29934.474338999997]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXAAAGASM-26JUL31","ticker":"KXAAAGASM-26JUL31","slug":"KXAAAGASM-26JUL31","title":"Gas prices in the US in Jul 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T14:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-08-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":795948.84,"volume_24hr":75887.15,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.24071502685547,"normalized_volume":41.252655029296875,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":423643.29,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Above 2.50","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-99.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:47:14.845743Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:47:14.845743Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T14:12:37.537377Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaaagasm/gas-prices-in-the-us-in-jul-2026/kxaaagasm-26jul31","chart_24h":[99751.24,101925.84000000001,102320.74,101826.79,105308.2,105251.29000000001,94921.37000000001,116744.12999999999,113779.75,131328.28,130794.4,130176.82,132722.8,132269.49,132426.94,132379.41,131261.81,131184.96,126873.46,127384.44,126848.85,130881.31000000001,115483.40000000001,114987.05,114987.95,114640.67,114787.1,114585.93000000001,115575.55,115264.06,108321.62,108453.72,107036.89,75887.15]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"703573","ticker":"july-inflation-us-annual-20260714150613267","slug":"july-inflation-us-annual-20260714150613267","title":"July Inflation US - Annual","description":"This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/january-inflation-annual-vp5qkgK2R7Et.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/january-inflation-annual-vp5qkgK2R7Et.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-14T17:37:31.660658Z","end_date":"2026-08-12T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":101866.170527,"volume_24hr":24967.016893,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.17716979980469,"normalized_volume":27.00872802734375,"liquidity":164588.26732,"open_interest":25778.701339999996,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"101701","slug":"cpi","label":"CPI"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"702","slug":"inflation","label":"Inflation"},{"id":"105614","slug":"cpi-release","label":"CPI Release"},{"id":"102000","slug":"macro-indicators","label":"Macro Indicators"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"3.3%","top_outcome_probability":0.375,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.08000000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6886.7960920000005,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:29.674398Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:29.674398Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T18:06:34.166710Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-inflation-us-annual-20260714150613267","chart_24h":[6171.313088,6152.073088,6681.404547,6899.519547,6899.519547,4060.2757189999998,3553.257345,3491.257345,3561.247345,17936.400751,20716.573503,22102.238234,22175.999811,22111.999811,22209.988967,22861.868967000002,22795.548967000002,22795.548967000002,22795.548967000002,20980.389054000003,20629.838081,20667.838081,21574.296261,22109.296261,22415.296261,22289.886261,22281.886261,22384.086261,22384.086261,22440.896261,22440.896261,22438.272291,24952.026893000002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79041","ticker":"largest-company-end-of-december-2026","slug":"largest-company-end-of-december-2026","title":"Largest Company end of December 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-12T21:16:56.414786Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4713556.708470011,"volume_24hr":21086.584772000006,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.74090576171875,"normalized_volume":47.95871353149414,"liquidity":886388.94429,"open_interest":418331.12775,"categories":["Economy","Business","Finance","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"NVIDIA","top_outcome_probability":0.555,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.09499999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4655.562638000005,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-december-2026","chart_24h":[21857.067401,21747.074375,20620.087026999998,20758.232109,20710.724857,20560.878243000003,19796.538485,17684.681262000002,17238.045373,17481.110002999998,17481.323336999998,17309.660942,17471.816609,15132.133188000002,15282.155074000002,15254.577073,15244.249823000002,15323.855073,15374.022421000001,15411.863004000003,15637.983171000002,15781.205509000001,15818.905509000002,15543.127759,15360.076260000002,16232.185399000002,15792.038010000002,15507.863928000002,15499.808425000003,19434.831355000006,20155.200260000005,20179.559927000006,21054.748439000006]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"428185","ticker":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659","slug":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659","title":"Bank of Japan Decision in July?","description":"The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T23:09:55.130197Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":301632.922885,"volume_24hr":20956.009262,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.23275375366211,"normalized_volume":32.31327438354492,"liquidity":114114.24136,"open_interest":111074.324259,"categories":["Economy","World"],"tags":[{"id":"102990","slug":"boj","label":"BOJ"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"101522","slug":"japan","label":"Japan"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103176","slug":"Global-Rates","label":"Global Rates"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No change","top_outcome_probability":0.9785,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0024999999999999467,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-7280.711611000001,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:33.551196Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:33.551196Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659","chart_24h":[27625.922101,25296.108844,25301.108844,25111.381573,23709.415537999997,23755.097356,24486.380587,12311.273298,12468.743298,19467.444392,21026.140321,21026.140321,21028.188069,17395.973467000003,17395.973467000003,17507.011671,17516.681671000002,17612.901671,17785.401671,18218.625812000002,18567.768668,18547.148998,18019.148998,16117.318998,16174.138998000002,15893.138998000002,14919.384100000001,14475.384100000001,19721.9471,19721.9471,19900.57084,19900.57084,19813.080840000002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"329566","ticker":"fed-rate-hike-by","slug":"fed-rate-hike-by","title":"Fed rate hike by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-rate-hike-by-8cpilck5mcVg.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-rate-hike-by-8cpilck5mcVg.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-31T21:37:28.411000Z","end_date":"2026-12-09T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1541577.9356020004,"volume_24hr":17699.842671000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.82481002807617,"normalized_volume":41.23486328125,"liquidity":86215.0352,"open_interest":272943.619069,"categories":["Finance","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"159","slug":"fed","label":"Fed"},{"id":"101550","slug":"jerome-powell","label":"Jerome Powell"},{"id":"702","slug":"inflation","label":"Inflation"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"100478","slug":"fomc","label":"fomc"},{"id":"100196","slug":"fed-rates","label":"Fed Rates"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"105614","slug":"cpi-release","label":"CPI Release"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"October Meeting","top_outcome_probability":0.69,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999898,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":587.002935,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:26.862408Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:26.862408Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-by","chart_24h":[52389.79816300001,53324.288163000005,48217.778934,48173.778934,50423.881508,50415.851206,44607.190241,49836.02614,49432.300511,51103.124273999994,52391.736179,52305.877922,53505.877922,46927.17401,46897.17401,47002.56401,46954.86401,46305.13401,46182.059396,46971.50992,46969.675395,45556.950575,45347.75703,45141.820725,44958.36017,44883.36017,44891.36017,44834.351707,44810.751706999996,44810.187192,44396.801707,18875.651706999997,18864.337423999998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"301499","ticker":"fed-decisions-apr-jul","slug":"fed-decisions-apr-jul","title":"Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)","description":"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.\n\nA qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nIf the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to \"Other\". Any rate hike will be encompassed by \"Other\".\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/arch-fed-decisions-in-2025-Vowt-IlTgfPc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/arch-fed-decisions-in-2025-Vowt-IlTgfPc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-24T23:47:58.419009Z","end_date":"2026-07-29T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":877538.6614810003,"volume_24hr":17104.280896999997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.00060272216797,"normalized_volume":38.038673400878906,"liquidity":61860.59341,"open_interest":181693.631768,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"159","slug":"fed","label":"Fed"},{"id":"101337","slug":"parlays","label":"Parlays"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"100196","slug":"fed-rates","label":"Fed 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