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I do not intend to continue living if I foresee my utility being net negative for the foreseeable future.\n\nMarket resolves \"n/a\" if I die as a result of intentional market manipulation.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-19T05:57:52.805000Z","end_date":"2095-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11735.93714367071,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.96226501464844,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.323427,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will I live to be 100 years old?","top_outcome_probability":0.323427,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:12:25.873554Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T03:12:25.873554Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-i-live-to-be-100-years-old","chart_24h":[0.323427,0.323427]},{"source":"manifold","id":"3cBLGjcbZ2ElJkHCdDpm","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-kill-20-of-the-human-popula","title":"Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?","description":"Compare to \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/resolves-no-in-2030)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FLhTZutAtXk.png?alt=media&token=c45b4dde-25d9-4c5c-823a-948740a51a94","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T18:37:00.891000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":103858.81580833653,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":50.0859375,"liquidity":1980.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.027947,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.027947,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-ai-kill-20-of-the-human-popula","chart_24h":[0.027947,0.027947]},{"source":"manifold","id":"68Qqlq8gt9","ticker":null,"slug":"if-i-infect-myself-with-alphagal-sy","title":"If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-02T04:27:25.393000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T05:04:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9598.539586680097,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.563154220581055,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.866782,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?","top_outcome_probability":0.866782,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:30:00.909842Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:30:00.909842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-i-infect-myself-with-alphagal-sy","chart_24h":[0.866782,0.866782]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6ah4GKxsdaUpG4xpAfQi","ticker":null,"slug":"by-the-end-of-2055-will-it-be-possi","title":"By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?","description":"The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relatively safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.\n\nIt does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F-EBzsdB8L_.png?alt=media&token=6889e6bb-7387-421a-a70b-174737ae367c","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-28T17:23:43.207000Z","end_date":"2056-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7546.143488710741,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.928861618041992,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.245678,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?","top_outcome_probability":0.245678,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2055-will-it-be-possi","chart_24h":[0.245678,0.245678]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6urpCm8MulQG4hXiZxW0","ticker":"6urpCm8MulQG4hXiZxW0","slug":"if-a-republican-wins-the-2024-presi-1ed89c6cf350","title":"If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?","description":"If a Republican does not win, this question will be resolved N/A\n\nMultiple answers can resolve yes as follows:\n\n\"Banned in all cases\" and \"Banned with exceptions\" are mutually exclusive. If either of them resolve YES, then \"Banned after X weeks\" will resolve YES.\n\n If \"Banned after X weeks\" resolves YES, \"Banned after Y weeks\" (Y > X) resolves YES\n\nIf \"None of the above\" resolves YES, nothing else resolves YES (obviously)\n\n\"exceptions\" includes life of the mother, rape/incest, and other exceptions that affect (cumulatively) <10% of pregnancies. If abortions for teenage pregnancies were be completely banned, and no other abortions were restricted, this market would resolve \"None of the above.\"","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/ManifoldPolitics%2Ffd98f339efe0.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-01T19:25:04.836000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3808.325790216905,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.520845413208008,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Health","Elections","Politics"],"tags":["health","2024-us-presidential-election","us-politics","donald-trump"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"None of the above","top_outcome_probability":0.822341,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-27T00:51:50.426348Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T00:51:50.426348Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/if-a-republican-wins-the-2024-presi-1ed89c6cf350","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"7XJogo89DyViRUQKaBFn","ticker":null,"slug":"the-fda-will-approve-an-ai-develope","title":"The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.","description":"The drug company will credit key steps of the discovery or steps in the treatment process to AI/ML techniques. The treatment must be approved before 2030 by the FDA for a condition afflicting at least 1 million people at the time, which had no previous cure, rarely goes into remission, and without treatment either significantly shortens lifespan or is considered extremely debilitating. Treatments may exist at the time, but this will be a complete cure with an efficacy of >50%. The treatment may need to be repeated if the illness recurs, but isn't needed on a continuing basis.\n\n\nExamples (not limited to):\n\nAn incurable virus, bacterium, or parasite.\n\nDegenerative illnesses such as Alzheimer's, diabetes, or cardiovascular.\n\nPhysical such as paralysis, amputation, and many types of blindness or deafness.\n\nMental health disorders such as autism, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F5ZcNNbH20U.png?alt=media&token=c75dd190-a469-41c0-aeac-8b4a736cf599","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-21T17:45:49.386000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10855.618524457985,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.41603088378906,"liquidity":1880.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.263886,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.","top_outcome_probability":0.263886,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RealityQuotient/the-fda-will-approve-an-ai-develope","chart_24h":[0.263886,0.263886]},{"source":"manifold","id":"7lqicfaIER2qT4xkAntX","ticker":null,"slug":"will-someone-born-before-2001-live","title":"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","description":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-05-12T01:30:51.773000Z","end_date":"2150-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":26623.49839939282,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.97669982910156,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.41,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","top_outcome_probability":0.41,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-06T03:32:13.331754Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-06T03:32:13.331754Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-someone-born-before-2001-live","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"8HjPKfhd5OdDxxhA6Ezi","ticker":null,"slug":"will-5-or-less-adults-smoke-cigaret","title":"Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?","description":"This market will resolve yes if a large, nationally representative survey in England finds that 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes by the end of 2030. This includes surveys released after this date, but the data covers 2030 or earlier. I will accept rounded figures to the nearest 0.1% (e.g. the true figure could be 5.04% and this market would still resolve yes).  \n\nThe UK government has set a target for England to be 'smokefree' by 2030 - achieved when adult smoking prevalence is 5% or less.  \n\nThe latest figures from the Office of National Statistics suggest that in 2021, 13% of adults in England smoked, down from 13.8% the year before and the lowest rate ever recorded. \n\nA recent review (the 'Khan review') said that “without further action, England will miss the smokefree 2030 target by at least 7 years”, and made 15 recommendations to help the government achieve its smokefree ambitions. \n\nSince then, the UK government has announced a scheme to provide 1 million smokers with free e-cigarette starter packs to help them quit (known as 'swap to stop'), as well as financial incentives to encourage pregnant women to stop smoking. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/smokers-urged-to-swap-cigarettes-for-vapes-in-world-first-scheme","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-17T06:08:18.269000Z","end_date":"2031-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8672.91847239955,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.868972778320312,"liquidity":2025.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.124274,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.124274,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bdog/will-5-or-less-adults-smoke-cigaret","chart_24h":[0.124274,0.124274]},{"source":"manifold","id":"DcwEpKPUCUMqN1irBwfl","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-senolytic-drug-be-used-clini-61a883c8303c","title":"Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?","description":"The Daily Mail interviews Andrew Steele, the author of Ageless: The New Science of Getting Older Without Getting Old. Steele makes a couple of key predictions in the interview:\n\n\"I'd be shocked if in five years we don't have some senolytics in the clinic. It probably won't be for aging at first. It'll be for a specific disease - and maybe in 10 years, we'll use it for aging. These things are very, very near term.\"\n\nThis market is conerned with the second of those predictions: Clinical use of senolytics in humans for the specific purpose of slowing, reversing, or preventing aging by 2033 (within 10 years of 2023). Senolytics are simply drugs whose mechanism of action is the destruction of senescent cells. \n\nResolves YES if credible news articles or medical journals describe the successful clinical use of a new senolytic drug for anti-aging purposes outside of trials before the end date. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not be betting in this market.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtCzuOrKFJ-.png?alt=media&token=eaf1df98-84cc-4ac1-9b4b-256da24b0813","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-10T00:11:37.007000Z","end_date":"2034-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19616.23805306725,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.675140380859375,"liquidity":1630.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.460929,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?","top_outcome_probability":0.460929,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NLeseul/will-a-senolytic-drug-be-used-clini-61a883c8303c","chart_24h":[0.460929,0.460929]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EZCX5UDXPCQO1hPCzNJH","ticker":null,"slug":"will-joe-biden-live-till-the-end-of","title":"Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028?","description":"Related:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-donald-trump-live-till-the-end)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-19T01:35:55.496000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13269.299489307536,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.8317756652832,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.541233,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.541233,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-joe-biden-live-till-the-end-of","chart_24h":[0.541233,0.541233]},{"source":"manifold","id":"FJDz5vFnwbkbOv3QalWM","ticker":"FJDz5vFnwbkbOv3QalWM","slug":"when-will-king-charles-iii-die","title":"When will King Charles III die?","description":"Decided to make the market after today's news\n\nBBC News - King Charles III diagnosed with cancer, Buckingham Palace says\n\nhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68208157","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/joeym4%2F74419c96dcaf.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-05T18:22:58.821000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18737.052153859946,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.33565902709961,"liquidity":2215.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Politics","Health"],"tags":["death-markets","uk-politics","uk","death","king-charles-iii","monarchy"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"2030 and later","top_outcome_probability":0.484804,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-08T09:43:53.530378Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T09:43:53.530378Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/joeym4/when-will-king-charles-iii-die","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"FLtLafVPS7hcEnZoZFOj","ticker":null,"slug":"is-nicotine-good-for-you","title":"Is Nicotine Good for You?","description":"Update 2024-30-12 (PST): - Resolution Deadline Removed: The original deadline for resolving this market has been removed, and the question will continue to run without a fixed resolution date. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\n\nSimilar Questions:\n\nIs Caffeine Good for You?\n\nAre Psychedelic Drugs Good for You?\n\nIs Fasting Good for You?\n\nIs Semen Retention Good for You?\n\n","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/cc1%2Fb51e80afa7c7.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-04T09:50:26.952000Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6208.135533686162,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.63492774963379,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.250368,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Is Nicotine Good for You?","top_outcome_probability":0.250368,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cc1/is-nicotine-good-for-you","chart_24h":[0.250368,0.250368]},{"source":"manifold","id":"GwqzX3DFD36VXT6WSSBY","ticker":"GwqzX3DFD36VXT6WSSBY","slug":"where-did-covid19-come-from","title":"Where did COVID-19 come from","description":"Resolves in the same way as @/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory \n\nUpdate 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on \"In the wild\":\n\nRefers to any location not listed in other options.\n\nUpdate 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed specific scenarios that would fall under a non-zoonotic origin (which users in the thread associated with a lab origin). These scenarios include if the pandemic virus:\n\nWas created from scratch.\n\nOriginated from a virus that was previously sampled from humans (and subsequently became the source of the pandemic, e.g., through a lab-related pathway).\n\nUpdate 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified how to select this market's resolution option when the outcome from the dependent market (@/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory) could fit multiple options in this market:\n\nThe more specific option available in this market will take precedence.\n\nFor example, lab-specific zoonotic options are considered more specific and would be chosen over broader categories they might also belong to.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-17T16:16:26.687000Z","end_date":"2035-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14614.259383987508,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.52334976196289,"liquidity":2595.5,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Health"],"tags":["covid-d7a9361d772d","covid-origins"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Transfer at a wet market","top_outcome_probability":0.530891,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.348476Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.348476Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/where-did-covid19-come-from","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"KdEudpbnOztIw5ovm7nW","ticker":null,"slug":"will-i-live-to-be-150-years-old-3d90b0df1fa7","title":"Will I live to be 150 years old?","description":"I'm currently 20 years old. I have no major health issues or family history of health issues. I generally don't participate in dangerous activities.\n\nI love my life and want to stay alive for as long as possible. I could see myself wanting to live for thousands of years if I could. I intend to continue living even if I foresee my utility being net negative for the foreseeable future, but that may change in the future.\n\nMarket resolves \"n/a\" if I die as a result of intentional market manipulation.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-20T10:07:57.870000Z","end_date":"2192-06-15T01:03:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":37277.79066818692,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.59426498413086,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.217308,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will I live to be 150 years old?","top_outcome_probability":0.217308,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/justifieduseofFallibilism/will-i-live-to-be-150-years-old-3d90b0df1fa7","chart_24h":[0.217308,0.217308]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LY6gHqig2w9NxKvLV1h6","ticker":null,"slug":"more-than-10-of-children-born-in-th","title":"More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030","description":"unconventionally conceived = conceived through IVF, or another method which isn't a natural man + woman + in-body conception + implantation scheme.  \n\ni.e. there is some intervention which changes the path, location, constituency, existence, or selection of the sperm or egg such as filtering sperm, artificially selecting sperm, temporarily removing the egg or fetus, exposing either of them to foreign agents for genetic/health purposes, or similar divergence from the conventional method with significant effects.\n\nJudging timespan: if such a condition holds for net children born over at least 6 months before the judging date.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FnF6POlpuqf.png?alt=media&token=46f87ed0-f14a-406d-bd3d-dad00abe11d9","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-30T21:10:29.734000Z","end_date":"2030-06-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4475.569783983474,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.529796600341797,"liquidity":1315.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.1294,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.1294,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ernie/more-than-10-of-children-born-in-th","chart_24h":[0.1294,0.1294]},{"source":"manifold","id":"M5pwgOxn4vS7U92uMxqi","ticker":"M5pwgOxn4vS7U92uMxqi","slug":"lantern-bioworks-lumina-probiotic-d","title":"Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]","description":"Lantern Bioworks says they have a cure for tooth decay. Their product is a genetically modified bacterium which infects your mouth, outcompetes all the tooth-decay-causing bacteria, and doesn’t cause tooth decay itself. If it works, it could make cavities a thing of the past (you should still brush for backup and cosmetic reasons).\n\nIs this true?\n\nThe options in this market are based on Scott Alexander's latest post about Lantern Bioworks, in which he says:\n\nMy real opinion, as precisely as I can express it, is: \n\nAdvance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride: 5% \n\nGood on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments: 35% \n\nDoesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does: 10% \n\nDoesn’t work at all and never will: 50% \n\nCauses minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol: 30% \n\nCauses medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics: 5% \n\nCauses disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide: <1%\n\nThese possibilities are all independent options in this market. If I am personally convinced that an option is true/untrue and am certain enough that I would make a real money bet on it at extreme odds, that option resolves YES/NO here accordingly. \n\nSo this market depends on my judgement, but notably I am a longtime reader of Scott Alexander and I trust him quite a bit. So if Scott writes a post saying that that these things are true or untrue, I am very likely to believe him. If you can convince Scott, or Zvi for that matter, you have likely convinced me. \n\nI am very skeptical by default of anything claiming to be as amazing as Lumina, but I think that even a small chance that it is that good makes it well worth pursuing. I have previously traded in some Lantern Bioworks markets, but after making this market I intend to buy no more shares in those markets. I will not buy any shares in this market.\n\n[image]I will try to check in on the latest evidence regularly, and if it seems like we may never know the truth of an option I may decide to resolve it N/A. \n\nI am prepared to wait several years for good data if necessary, but my hope is that some of the more extreme scenarios here will be resolvable sooner than that. The resolution date will be moved out as necessary. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-16T15:28:59.685000Z","end_date":"2030-04-02T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16618.994193430495,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.45504379272461,"liquidity":6635.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Health","Science and Technology"],"tags":["lantern-bioworks","aella","technology-default","startups"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Doesn’t work at all and never will","top_outcome_probability":0.502493,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.348476Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.348476Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/lantern-bioworks-lumina-probiotic-d","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"MAqlzny1hdcYqoL2lAbo","ticker":"MAqlzny1hdcYqoL2lAbo","slug":"which-of-these-famous-people-will-h","title":"Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?","description":"Judgeable when the second child is born or when the person passes away (given that we know they don't have any more planned or possible).\n\nAlso can YES if new information about the past is revealed. \n\nWishing everyone a big, happy and healthy family. Of course adopted children count; adopting a child and helping him or her have a good upbringing is one of the best things you can do. \n\nStepchildren for our purposes don't, though, since the question is about whether these people will cause a new parent+child relationship to exist for a kid who didn't have one before. Since stepchildren always will have had the person the stepparent is marrying, they wouldn't. I realize this isn't perfect, if someone married someone with adopted children it's not clear. To the best I can I'll try. If you think you've found a weird situation please let me know and I'll try to help and not trade against you. \n\nJudging: for bands, we consider the membership at the point of market creation\n\nEnd date: mid 2035","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ernie%2Fa07c877095d3.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-04T07:18:56.986000Z","end_date":"2035-07-01T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12458.727925889998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.3840446472168,"liquidity":8920.25,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Health"],"tags":["human-population-crisis","fertility","extreme-fertility-policites"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Virat Kohli","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.087263Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.087263Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ernie/which-of-these-famous-people-will-h","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"NolrujDZunqwMU0jEJ9B","ticker":"NolrujDZunqwMU0jEJ9B","slug":"conditional-on-a-consensus-20-years","title":"Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?","description":"Related ACX post Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know.  I will go off of some combination of how sure scientists are that it matters, vs. how big scientists think the effect is.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-17T04:41:42.436000Z","end_date":"2043-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3010.0141959238226,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.085763931274414,"liquidity":1460.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Diet and obesity","top_outcome_probability":0.448918,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:49:31.234500Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:49:31.234500Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/conditional-on-a-consensus-20-years","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OrpcQ6dcCy2DppNlFtBV","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2028-will-any-major-hospital-adv","title":"In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of  diagnosis of human patients?","description":"Examples of major hospitals would be institutions like Massachusetts General Hospital, or National University Hosptial in Signapore. This isn't meant to be too restrictive, you could also read this as affecting more than ten thousand concurrent patients. The intent is that it is both legal somewhere and has gained some amount of public acceptance.\n\nAdvertise means anything comparable to how hospitals currently treat the services they provide, for instance, Mass General currently advertises cancer treatment.\n\nPrimary method of diagnosis means that an AI evaluates symptoms and delivers a diagnosis which is expected to be followed in most cases. The diagnosis may be checked by a physician, but a physician is not using the AI as a tool. A symptom of this might be a significantly lower doctor to patient ratio than is currently common. The recent Alzheimer research, for example, would be a supplementary method of diagnosis.\n\nVeterinarians will not count.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F3XAxp8djKr.png?alt=media&token=50f66bf4-32cd-4394-a802-c908f18b5e12","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-10T00:37:20.166000Z","end_date":"2029-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4736.7807874363625,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.88895034790039,"liquidity":1340.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.359053,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of  diagnosis of human patients?","top_outcome_probability":0.359053,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/in-2028-will-any-major-hospital-adv","chart_24h":[0.359053,0.359053]},{"source":"manifold","id":"PAPtPqQZhh","ticker":null,"slug":"will-at-least-1-nonpassenger-get-ha","title":"Will at least 1 non-passenger get hantavirus from the MV Hondius outbreak?","description":"This market will resolve to YES if at least one individual who was not a passenger or crew member on the MV Hondius during the outbreak is officially confirmed by a national public health authority (e.g., CDC, WHO, or equivalent national health ministry) to have contracted the Andes virus as a result of the MV Hondius outbreak.  Otherwise, if no such confirmation is made by the time the current outbreak is declared over by international health authorities, or if all reported cases are confirmed to be passengers or crew, the market will resolve to NO.\n\nWill not resolve YES if other, unrelated Hantavirus / Andes virus cases occur.  For example, a couple dozen Americans contract other strains of endogenous Hantavirus every year.  These would not be adequate to resolve YES... the etiology has to involve the MV Hondius outbreak.\n\nThis would, however, also resolve YES if it's revealed that the passengers who contracted the disease on the MV Hondius had previously spread it to others before getting on the ship!\n\nI will not trade on this market to remain objective in its resolution.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-14T19:44:52.357000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T19:42:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18090.926744504734,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.07692337036133,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.124964,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will at least 1 non-passenger get hantavirus from the MV Hondius outbreak?","top_outcome_probability":0.124964,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-08T13:47:02.436741Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T13:47:02.436741Z","added_at":"2026-05-15T19:21:37.007937Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-at-least-1-nonpassenger-get-ha","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"PMzQkw78fqNVlo3baV5F","ticker":null,"slug":"before-2050-will-it-become-safe-and","title":"Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?","description":"\"Apparent sex\" here includes voice timbre, facial appearance, body shape, and genitals. It does not include reproductive system, DNA, hormornes, or qualia. The procedure needs to be good enough that a stranger can't tell someone has undergone the procedure just by looking at them.\n\n\"Easy\" means it's not significantly more prohibitive for the middle class than other big life changes such as moving, getting a new job, etc.\n\nIn order for this to resolve YES, there must be many people who are not super-wealthy and have changed their sex back and forth several times, being largely indistiguishable from people born as that sex each time.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbIPQXkIWpF.png?alt=media&token=c32b4e0d-c6c2-4345-b22f-ad473483547d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-15T20:54:15.072000Z","end_date":"2050-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7187.248952733156,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.603132247924805,"liquidity":1010.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.4,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?","top_outcome_probability":0.4,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2050-will-it-become-safe-and","chart_24h":[0.4,0.4]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QSdcggdSt0zy86RmxXNi","ticker":"QSdcggdSt0zy86RmxXNi","slug":"which-2024-us-presidential-candidat","title":"Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer?","description":"Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the two oldest candidates to ever run for the US presidency. They have both passed the median life expectancy in the US (77.26 years). Both have publicly displayed signs of cognitive decline and both have already experienced declining health from the demands of the presidency. \n\nThis market resolves based on the person's age when they expire.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-79LSfWwe1.webp?alt=media&token=8b60f9ad-4772-4286-94b7-723d2f873db0","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-09T14:10:59.414000Z","end_date":"2045-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10645.706561297262,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.27995681762695,"liquidity":1125.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections","Health"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default","2024-us-presidential-election","health","mental-health"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Donald Trump","top_outcome_probability":0.7,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-22T02:43:23.446382Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-22T02:43:23.446382Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/becauseyoudo/which-2024-us-presidential-candidat","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"RaUhdxs3ToW4qEOXslFy","ticker":"RaUhdxs3ToW4qEOXslFy","slug":"when-will-the-worlds-total-fertilit","title":"When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?","description":"This is a cumulative probability market. For an answer to resolve YES, reports/publications/data from any sufficiently conventionally high-status source (e.g. the UN Population Division, the World Bank, the CIA World Factbook, the Population Reference Bureau) need to come out before the date of that answer claiming that the world's Total Fertility Rate is at or below 2.1 (replacement level can change depending on mortality rates, sex ratio, etc. but 2.1 is the figure for the purposes of this question).\n\nNot that publications after an answer's date that make this claim are not eligible to count towards this question, even if they concern time periods before the date in question. The actual claim itself that humanity has fallen below replacement level needs to be made before the year in the answer in question.\n\nI will use my discretion on what sources I will count, but expect it to be conservative. Feel free to ask about sources ahead of time. ","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Tripping/b9489255555f.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-13T17:29:11.672000Z","end_date":"2069-03-31T12:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6219.8935892323425,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.647335052490234,"liquidity":1125.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Health"],"tags":["population","children","fertility"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2069","top_outcome_probability":0.92548,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-29T14:19:17.952505Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-29T14:19:17.952505Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tripping/when-will-the-worlds-total-fertilit","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"UOt5nELN6Q","ticker":null,"slug":"health-issues-from-100-huel-diet-di","title":"Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?","description":"I once spent multiple consecutive months eating a 100% Huel diet, I believe that saved about 30 minutes a day. But I think it's possible in the future we will know that this is a bad idea, e.g. maybe Huel has a high amount of microplastics because of the amount of processing steps it goes through, and we end up discovering microplastics are really bad. Or maybe eating the same thing every meal is really bad for your microbiome.\n\nThis market resolves Yes if in the future the consensus is that eating a 100% Huel diet (of the Sep 21, 2025 Powder formula, chocolate flavor, maintainence calories) is less healthy than a typical \"healthy\" whole foods mediterranean diet, calorie matched, to an extent I judge is not worth an extra 30 minutes a day.\n\nI will resolve this question by, at minimum, asking a competent LLM for its perspective to get up to date on the science, read the comments here, and then resolve, in 2035.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-21T21:08:51.098000Z","end_date":"2034-12-28T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":35790.23508837298,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.27306365966797,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.71683,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?","top_outcome_probability":0.71683,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/colorednoise/health-issues-from-100-huel-diet-di","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"VFRxwdYRrSWRx5474PK0","ticker":"VFRxwdYRrSWRx5474PK0","slug":"what-will-be-true-about-apples-smar-528382f89632","title":"What will be true about Apple's smart ring?","description":"https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/rumors-ramp-apple-smart-ring-120908847.html\n\nFor answer inspiration:\n\nWhat will it be named?\n\nWhen will it be announced?\n\nWhen will it be available to the public?\n\nSpecs?\n\nDifferences from competitors?\n\nEnd date will be changed to match public launch date once announced.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/dglid%2Fd9fefc42714a.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-22T22:29:08.850000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7555.40756322478,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.937084197998047,"liquidity":4615.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":["technology-default","apple","health","science-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"It won't be available for purchase in 2024 ","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T23:14:07.299262Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T23:14:07.299262Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/dglid/what-will-be-true-about-apples-smar-528382f89632","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"WAT0LR6n1qtctjE8U1Gr","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-find-a-way-to-live-forever","title":"Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?","description":"Biological immortality is an absence of aging. Specifically it is the absence of a sustained increase in rate of mortality as a function of chronological age. \n\nA cell or organism that does not experience aging, or ceases to age at some point, is biologically immortal.\n\nResolves YES in 2046 if we have made significant progress in this area to reliably have first instances of induced biological immortality evidenced in animal subjects and first trials in humans have commenced.\n\nResolves NO in 2046 if we have found no means to induce biological immortality, animal testing is inconclusive and human trials have not commenced and are not projected to commence within the end of the year 2046.\n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-04T04:21:38.681000Z","end_date":"2047-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18725.5803569878,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.33113479614258,"liquidity":1005.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.269485,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?","top_outcome_probability":0.269485,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BB/will-we-find-a-way-to-live-forever","chart_24h":[0.269485,0.269485]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Y3mO6WhMDw18XfPLk4i2","ticker":null,"slug":"will-i-live-to-be-at-least-200-year","title":"Will I live to be at least 200 years old?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-18T14:49:30.248000Z","end_date":"2191-10-16T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":95441.09252540376,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":49.35561752319336,"liquidity":1955.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.150928,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will I live to be at least 200 years old?","top_outcome_probability":0.150928,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:30:00.909842Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:30:00.909842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/will-i-live-to-be-at-least-200-year","chart_24h":[0.150928,0.150928]},{"source":"manifold","id":"YPv8p5uENjIZVHfA8THI","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-another-pandemic-by-t","title":"Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?","description":"Resolves YES if the WHO declares a pandemic not related to Covid-19 on or by December 31, 2030. Resolves NO otherwise.\n\nIf the WHO declares a pandemic due to some variant of Covid-19, this will not count.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FHtjU9qFEoB.png?alt=media&token=1577dc59-f91a-4ccb-9b7a-540609eef8df","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-17T07:10:49.505000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8704.171507634046,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.893465042114258,"liquidity":1220.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.33,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.33,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JoeC/will-there-be-another-pandemic-by-t","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"Yvl4Iu8tLaLqIVj4JTwd","ticker":"Yvl4Iu8tLaLqIVj4JTwd","slug":"death-toll-in-israelhamas-war-israe","title":"Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side","description":"More options because the other market solidified at 500+\n\nUpdate Dec 29: This market, like the other one, is about the entire war. I have moved the resolution date because it has not ended yet. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2023-10-08T06:14:01.276000Z","end_date":"2026-06-01T06:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-01T06:59:00Z","volume":74211.46345067663,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":47.213504791259766,"liquidity":6470.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Health","World"],"tags":["death","arabisraeli-conflict","israelhamas-conflict-2023"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1500-2500","top_outcome_probability":0.839904,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-01T07:06:54.969070Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-01T07:06:54.969070Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/death-toll-in-israelhamas-war-israe","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"Z8csnnSEdz","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-vaccine-against-the-andes-vi","title":"Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?","description":"Andes virus is a member of the hantavirus family responsible for the MV Hondius cruise ship outbreak.  \n\nThe only vaccine against hantaviruses in use is Hantavax which targets Hantaan river virus and Seoul virus, both \"old world\" hantaviruses, causing different symptoms than \"new world\" hantaviruses like the Andes virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantavirus_vaccine)\n\nModerna has been working on mRNA hantavirus vaccine, though this seems to target old world hantaviruses as well:\n\nhttps://brusselssignal.eu/2026/05/korea-university-and-moderna-have-been-working-on-mrna-hantavirus-vaccine-since-2023/\n\nResolves YES if any officially sanctioned vaccine trial in humans occurs before close date, where:\n\nthe vaccine has preclinical data suggesting possible efficacy against Andes virus\n\nthe trial has testing efficacy against Andes virus among its goals\n\nAs @Cactus noted, there was a vaccine tested earlier (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37380156/). This market will only consider trials that happen after market creation (specifically, that the vaccine is administered to humans after market creation, if the trial started or was designed earlier, it still counts).\n\nThe results of the trial are not relevant for resolution.\n\nI will not bet on this market.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-07T13:49:00.525000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3191.609364441672,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.439233779907227,"liquidity":300.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.246527,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.246527,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":"2026-05-13T10:02:04.159958Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AIBear/will-a-vaccine-against-the-andes-vi","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"bWKSnmhmzIKJhOmqygMy","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-who-declare-a-h5n1-pandemi-82fde4966973","title":"Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?","description":"Feb 6, 11:16am: Will the WHO declare a H5N1 pandemic before 2030? → Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FivTaUM5KCP.svg?alt=media&token=05fcde50-cf1d-4c86-9d90-c620936eae78","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-05T21:16:42.981000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T11:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":31123.382499764542,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.18052291870117,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.189324,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.189324,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-who-declare-a-h5n1-pandemi-82fde4966973","chart_24h":[0.189324,0.189324]},{"source":"manifold","id":"f5zcF5iZUpKrcqmq5P2k","ticker":null,"slug":"will-i-get-any-new-cavities-after-a","title":"Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?","description":"I was supposed to get the stuff put on my teeth today, but it got postponed; since I'm leaving town I probably won't get it applied for another month or two. \n\nIt takes about a year for it to become effective, so this market is really \"Will I get any new cavities from 1 year after application (latest December 2023, so final cavity check Dec 2024), until the end of 2026?\"\n\nI'll do a dental visit around 1 year from application to check for baseline cavities, and won't count any that exist. \n\nI am historically very cavity prone, I've had I think 14 cavities? I have good but not great oral hygeine; I brush 1-2 times a day and go through phases of regular flossing and not flossing. I last visited the dentist 6 months ago and they said \"everything looks pretty good.\"","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-27T02:00:51.280000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21698.075979904206,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.42744827270508,"liquidity":2175.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.236314,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.236314,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T15:29:01.046258Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T15:29:01.046258Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-get-any-new-cavities-after-a","chart_24h":[0.236314,0.236314]},{"source":"manifold","id":"fnjg4dz3lsouiW7CTL7S","ticker":null,"slug":"will-i-be-alive-by-2100","title":"Will I be alive by 2100?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-24T07:50:59.070000Z","end_date":"2100-02-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8649.363178317388,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.850461959838867,"liquidity":1070.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.584678,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will I be alive by 2100?","top_outcome_probability":0.584678,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-13T06:56:17.577968Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-13T06:56:17.577968Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-i-be-alive-by-2100","chart_24h":[0.584678,0.584678]},{"source":"manifold","id":"oDXjk9IUybWsjEiP0TP5","ticker":null,"slug":"will-aoh1996-be-fda-approved-before","title":"Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?","description":"This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. See also this Wikipedia page. As of 2023-08-02, AOH1996 is in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of solid tumors. \n\nThis market resolves YES if AOH1996 gets FDA approval for use in humans at any time before 2040. This includes fast track, breakthrough therapy, accelerated approval, and priority review, as well as the normal approval pathway. It also includes any new approval pathways the FDA may develop prior to 2040. AOH1996 may be approved as a mono- or combination therapy.\n\nI will not bet in this market.\n\nAt the time of writing, I am aware only of this other AOH1996 market. I created this market to additionally capture the long tail of less glamorous outcomes, including slow approval, approval for only small disease area, and approval as a combination therapy.\n\n","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FwD5guJ-UVj.png?alt=media&token=c747a824-821e-4742-9820-58804a801a3e","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-02T23:58:54.137000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10424.597869132014,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.13401412963867,"liquidity":3465.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.403524,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.403524,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tossup/will-aoh1996-be-fda-approved-before","chart_24h":[0.403524,0.403524]},{"source":"manifold","id":"orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK","ticker":null,"slug":"will-over-100000-people-be-conceive","title":"Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?","description":"See:\n\nhttps://lifeview.com\n\nhttps://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection\n\nDoesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or \"child success\" predictions. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F3df7-__zJL.png?alt=media&token=5b90ba63-0d29-4426-90ca-de9888d892a3","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-13T19:15:32.802000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":46686.9110651686,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.391937255859375,"liquidity":11520.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.431836,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.431836,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive","chart_24h":[0.431836,0.431836]},{"source":"manifold","id":"prcMauO7vcULNj5aOmEo","ticker":null,"slug":"will-i-live-to-be-200-years-old","title":"Will I live to be 200 years old?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-13T08:58:52.191000Z","end_date":"2202-01-30T23:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":56229.72144122272,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.90613555908203,"liquidity":1150.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.12,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will I live to be 200 years old?","top_outcome_probability":0.12,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:30:00.909842Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:30:00.909842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/elibutchad/will-i-live-to-be-200-years-old","chart_24h":[0.12,0.12]},{"source":"manifold","id":"r5m78geu3w","ticker":"r5m78geu3w","slug":"at-end-of-year-2026-how-difficult-w","title":"At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?","description":"Some example scenarios for each option (this is not exhaustive, just representative):\n\nNotably easier: HRT is available over the counter; DIY HRT is completely legal rather than grey market or significantly cheaper.\n\nAbout the same: an HRT prescription can be obtained via informed consent at Planned Parenthood or similar; DIY HRT is grey market but in practice is only infrequently confiscated.\n\nNotably more difficult: an HRT prescription requires long waits or the approval of several experts; DIY HRT is confiscated somewhat frequently or is significantly more expensive.\n\nVirtually impossible: an HRT prescription is essentially illegal; DIY HRT carries significant legal risk.\n\nHRT is hormone replacement therapy, and includes various forms of estrogen/estradiol, anti-androgens, and progesterone.\n\nIn this question, blue states are loosely defined, but generally any state which consistently would have a relatively uncontested Democratic trifecta in fair elections for the duration of this question counts.\n\nThis market is specifically about feminizing HRT because I don't know much about the processes for obtaining masculinizing HRT. If someone else who knows more makes a market for masculinizing HRT, let me know and I'll link it here.\n\nThe question asks about adults in blue states because I have seen a lot of disagreement on trans twitter about whether blue states will remain a safe haven for trans people or if we will need to leave the country for our safety, and I would like a clearer answer to this question for my own planning. 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