{"items":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"481717","ticker":"fed-decision-in-september-762","slug":"fed-decision-in-september-762","title":"Fed Decision in September?","description":"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-13T21:23:09.737806Z","end_date":"2026-09-16T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":103989614.5417372,"volume_24hr":2617111.399225001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":90.72776794433594,"normalized_volume":77.52913665771484,"liquidity":5016170.66211,"open_interest":22443610.760575,"categories":["Politics","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"100478","slug":"fomc","label":"fomc"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"100196","slug":"fed-rates","label":"Fed Rates"},{"id":"101550","slug":"jerome-powell","label":"Jerome Powell"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"159","slug":"fed","label":"Fed"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"105614","slug":"cpi-release","label":"CPI Release"},{"id":"102548","slug":"jobs-report","label":"Jobs Report"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"25 bps increase","top_outcome_probability":0.525,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-16820.771644999506,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:36.140013Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:36.140013Z","added_at":"2026-05-13T21:40:18.173643Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762","chart_24h":[2181257.2406439995,2293684.779098,2347338.2480429998,2432108.794741,2359272.541481,2435888.425512,2458717.3996180003,2462278.523624001,2826469.418931,2837984.88453,2841088.014515001,2851771.6808270006,2782920.137663,2796538.9262240003,2829413.9034180003,2831827.598244,2937266.762637,2963459.7524070004,2925999.7897799998,2886168.249978,2715238.524425,2730850.635101,2806402.64161,2832853.841087,2880386.399551,2911816.334113,2907335.826113,2791311.658069,2778243.147175001,2638218.927272001,2631335.564561001,2617111.399225001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31552","ticker":"presidential-election-winner-2028","slug":"presidential-election-winner-2028","title":"Presidential Election Winner 2028","description":"The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/presidential-election-winner-2024-afdda358-219d-448a-abb5-ba4d14118d71.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/presidential-election-winner-2024-afdda358-219d-448a-abb5-ba4d14118d71.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-11T19:05:46.369000Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":703943773.5945642,"volume_24hr":832764.971226,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":77.2120361328125,"normalized_volume":94.4250259399414,"liquidity":61518445.06895,"open_interest":49911176.047460996,"categories":["Elections","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"102886","slug":"president","label":"President"},{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"JD Vance","top_outcome_probability":0.2455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2127.831076000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028","chart_24h":[444294.297594,402029.871601,343429.437161,340535.811895,340796.560994,343408.734474,341167.568364,327098.581597,318280.667412,318134.502444,314157.415905,313715.979613,317694.147212,317869.967694,821772.867187,842157.07987,840885.847876,871866.028383,860434.120742,843583.258101,845596.052892,817729.7615,819037.468852,722583.353619,722212.138487,722604.075658,835817.693493,837217.825983,830510.243144,829616.961856,833720.941575,832764.971226]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"449163","ticker":"israel-closes-its-airspace-by","slug":"israel-closes-its-airspace-by","title":"Israel closes its airspace by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-F65UW1ZQCDQ_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-F65UW1ZQCDQ_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T23:52:26.542773Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":29848944.725170966,"volume_24hr":801036.7544920001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.77264404296875,"normalized_volume":67.39945983886719,"liquidity":166943.9326,"open_interest":401304.71407,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"103160","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-20","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 20"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"September 30","top_outcome_probability":0.961,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.21599999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":563391.8520650001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:34.374027Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:34.374027Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by","chart_24h":[237644.902427,234481.93439899996,236042.01878699998,231167.59279399997,231388.183007,230883.39585399997,234962.44671,293568.76071599993,353936.73999,694979.7095820003,800153.5438690004,819793.5785320002,821613.1887490002,835161.5630780002,841600.0530740003,849312.3517460001,851967.0777910001,851424.4331940002,817141.3075430002,822816.4624619997,823603.0135829999,819846.7128489999,831261.6224780002,833709.4697509999,834033.2858810002,838970.5138640003,841018.4814850001,842013.9534060002,837576.132767,840752.106986,821328.0957800001,801036.7544920001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"928969","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-september-1-september-8-2026","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-september-1-september-8-2026","title":"Elon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 1 12:00 PM ET to September 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-29T04:00:40Z","end_date":"2026-09-08T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2237729.107424,"volume_24hr":763741.6749939999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.23506164550781,"normalized_volume":48.636619567871094,"liquidity":604897.69561,"open_interest":282116.451855,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"200-219","top_outcome_probability":0.9015,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.39649999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":124329.21413399989,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:22:27.734420Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:22:27.734420Z","added_at":"2026-08-29T04:14:29.127152Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-september-1-september-8-2026","chart_24h":[333405.596572,351445.120129,394698.137466,451749.23807900003,454008.84443299996,452422.190588,494214.347311,505622.92383099993,526797.73596,532951.3816209999,531363.363117,537063.010068,548570.832896,556053.0996739999,548355.925776,550240.5143629999,578412.526017,582496.153035,609963.7671470001,607741.044401,603746.6294529999,601453.055709,601326.7945729999,699255.6242729999,736765.719631,747715.6067530001,751354.345233,759797.286516,759552.226265,768493.3406959999,760180.7225579999,763741.6749939999]},{"source":"predict","id":"240582","ticker":"240582","slug":"presidential-election-winner-2028","title":"Presidential Election Winner 2028","description":"The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/3454e273-62fe-4d54-92ab-a2c33a7d038e.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-25T19:06:22Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2496865.4799999995,"volume_24hr":105411.30999999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.04728698730469,"normalized_volume":72.03312683105469,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics","Elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Ron DeSantis","top_outcome_probability":0.444,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:52.835327Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:52.835327Z","added_at":"2026-07-25T14:11:56.710515Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/presidential-election-winner-2028","chart_24h":[44704.94000000009,34831.050000000025,34831.050000000025,34759.590000000004,34759.590000000004,34759.590000000004,34771.55000000001,34771.55000000001,34771.55000000001,34771.55000000001,34816.76,34816.76,135733.34999999998,105406.47999999997,105409.04999999997,105409.04999999997,105411.30999999998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31875","ticker":"republican-presidential-nominee-2028","slug":"republican-presidential-nominee-2028","title":"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-11T19:42:02.156000Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":701010201.4086372,"volume_24hr":725257.659175,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":75.65422058105469,"normalized_volume":94.38632202148438,"liquidity":55730232.03746,"open_interest":9312750.216711996,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"264","slug":"primaries","label":"Primaries"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"J.D. Vance","top_outcome_probability":0.5025,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1291.3795809999997,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028","chart_24h":[440660.08017,447360.63150799996,446654.142689,483041.23355299997,425617.47054199997,457641.032076,463326.186519,465783.001704,465408.912469,479845.62177,479255.538936,470636.835162,473508.856824,475032.735922,660998.239513,661665.707752,650961.83516,651191.57993,615753.925201,615127.131696,860563.18194,933337.574817,940429.172243,872399.86591,716675.674487,718068.259654,718869.575739,718842.727313,718016.351608,723142.709483,725120.292706,725257.659175]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"45915","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election","slug":"brazil-presidential-election","title":"Brazil Presidential Election","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T20:07:57.760000Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":145242666.22005,"volume_24hr":686007.0017000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":75.0316390991211,"normalized_volume":80.36102294921875,"liquidity":16836189.16958,"open_interest":6431959.309130001,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101252","slug":"macro-election-2","label":"Macro Election 2"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","top_outcome_probability":0.555,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999898,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":114531.14473400006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","chart_24h":[568373.248515,539900.491182,543880.322483,522695.28395899996,588317.901192,571601.867507,581092.367485,563855.301256,539835.335962,386547.110921,382120.912716,386038.432845,389400.469595,390315.25801,422733.759981,395881.198044,385717.67650299997,384618.496389,396195.30928,403551.781896,407724.544626,411583.630807,409989.193728,442880.75263099995,505786.36781799997,504907.624753,525389.573788,520639.499251,555594.956341,593794.2929310001,605119.5695990002,686007.0017000001]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nChh5Pzzsy","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-finish-his-second-term","title":"Will Trump finish his second term?","description":"Resolves Yes if Trump finishes his second term. Resolves No if Trump doesn't serve a full second term for any reason.\n\n@/PuckMinder/will-trump-sign-any-cannabisrelated ","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/PuckMinder/tOU6LEEdcU.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-05T21:25:56.568000Z","end_date":"2029-01-22T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1804387.8456127574,"volume_24hr":12307.525940657253,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":74.35780334472656,"normalized_volume":76.85662078857422,"liquidity":100000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.840028,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump finish his second term?","top_outcome_probability":0.840028,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.005611000000000033,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-22929.87627490641,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:21:06.764054Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:21:06.764054Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/will-trump-finish-his-second-term","chart_24h":[0.845639,0.845758,0.84464,0.844287,0.842613,0.842613,0.841858,0.841158,0.841158,0.841158,0.840039,0.840373,0.840155,0.840437,0.840437,0.84,0.840067,0.840067,0.840234,0.840234,0.840152,0.84,0.84,0.840361,0.84,0.840001,0.840001,0.840028,0.840028,0.840028]},{"source":"predict","id":"10273","ticker":"10273","slug":"how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","title":"How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-29T22:24:45.988000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18168829.1,"volume_24hr":91458.41999999987,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":74.19158172607422,"normalized_volume":92.7509994506836,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics","Economy","Fed"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"0 (0 bps)","top_outcome_probability":0.9135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3227.7099999998463,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:57.511672Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:57.511672Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://predict.fun/market/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","chart_24h":[94892.00000000064,34821.51000000065,18429.490000000398,19304.800000000338,55274.16000000006,55225.860000000015,57750.61000000045,56555.17000000039,56751.62000000046,55290.240000000456,58802.22000000009,59075.040000000154,59292.76000000024,62781.980000000214,62980.68000000017,62896.94000000029,91458.41999999987]},{"source":"opinion","id":"380","ticker":"380","slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","title":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0xcb42f112953cc7e513b8cf74262f32eab068943f50a4f9ab7b827084b1af0c79","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-15T03:51:25Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16852347.1175,"volume_24hr":294750.838,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":72.9708023071289,"normalized_volume":66.61784362792969,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Mark Kelly","top_outcome_probability":0.989,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-03T10:13:55.956458Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T10:13:55.956458Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","chart_24h":null},{"source":"predict","id":"241131","ticker":"241131","slug":"california-governor-election-2026","title":"California Governor Election Winner","description":"This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/0221c7b1-951f-4df3-8601-c0c185680bc8.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-09T23:29:47.170000Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4914630.89,"volume_24hr":81275.20000000004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":72.6662368774414,"normalized_volume":78.80824279785156,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics","Elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Xavier Becerra","top_outcome_probability":0.9465,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.006000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-22186.09000000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:55.107491Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:55.107491Z","added_at":"2026-07-25T03:04:52.383375Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/california-governor-election-2026","chart_24h":[103769.11000000009,105267.47000000013,105267.47000000013,84185.48000000013,81729.13000000012,80987.68000000011,78396.56000000011,80796.45000000011,82752.89000000012,78941.92000000013,78844.7600000001,82491.3300000001,48635.3900000001,48635.3900000001,48624.38000000009,81275.20000000004]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"149589","ticker":"which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","slug":"which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","title":"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?","description":"Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T21:34:51.774902Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25721335.941239,"volume_24hr":509564.73628,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":71.74820709228516,"normalized_volume":66.2388916015625,"liquidity":2473834.6742,"open_interest":3112070.675042,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"United Russia (ER)","top_outcome_probability":0.745,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.05999999999999994,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":157969.67612199998,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:13.853696Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:13.853696Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","chart_24h":[199103.874792,208405.30344899997,209587.90408699997,219652.866586,218128.242178,219488.19002799998,215627.45866399998,217604.0071,216725.899575,217409.794431,210439.282397,209192.08218199998,210451.713182,210453.065182,214307.92009300002,215576.68227499997,204049.18638899998,187005.83538899999,184647.287299,186227.45919499997,204362.44257199997,217121.14821999997,213234.39178,220689.17714999997,228747.21218099998,228733.92025999998,271470.87185299996,467551.5769920001,491865.94149700005,487185.36958700005,486771.50886700006,509564.73628]},{"source":"predict","id":"12893","ticker":"12893","slug":"brazil-presidential-election","title":"Brazil Presidential Election","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://static.predict.fun/brazil-presidential-election","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T12:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-26T06:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8794290.730000002,"volume_24hr":69566.85999999984,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":70.68040466308594,"normalized_volume":84.8731689453125,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics","Global"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","top_outcome_probability":0.5505,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014499999999999957,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1820.7000000000116,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:55.107491Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:55.107491Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T11:32:48.020910Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/brazil-presidential-election","chart_24h":[131107.59000000008,137868.89000000007,64228.019999999975,64228.019999999975,64228.019999999975,64178.019999999975,63203.64999999989,63073.43999999987,63668.4699999998,61838.479999999894,61878.07999999993,65223.08999999994,40214.14000000007,28220.780000000086,30219.380000000092,66118.94000000003,69566.85999999984]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79987","ticker":"next-french-presidential-election","slug":"next-french-presidential-election","title":"Next French Presidential Election","description":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:09:35.811900Z","end_date":"2027-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":128693814.941274,"volume_24hr":386695.553733,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.76695251464844,"normalized_volume":79.32984161376953,"liquidity":16150009.0232,"open_interest":1099573.242596,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100282","slug":"french-election","label":"French Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Marine Le Pen","top_outcome_probability":0.3585,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.01200000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-43247.377681,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:06.991316Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:06.991316Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","chart_24h":[305982.864721,311214.545303,299789.804403,281056.13227299997,285557.297832,282793.077884,280986.88143,273606.734155,275166.923466,272022.350769,285011.913827,284748.33923,274414.25015,274271.454309,306036.237026,305512.448842,303382.631194,303385.909583,299151.361336,326776.53369099996,302804.811191,313531.12571500003,302030.978669,301801.169753,291470.151985,320210.815295,388055.961109,390834.961626,351549.893225,369410.449392,358786.850562,386695.553733]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"699735","ticker":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?","description":"On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n\nAnonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\nStatements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\nThird-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;\nSatirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and\nStatements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039-hE3ZTZ51JJy3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039-hE3ZTZ51JJy3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-13T18:04:23.246000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":26728863.346748002,"volume_24hr":342165.475728,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":67.46529388427734,"normalized_volume":66.53755187988281,"liquidity":550478.90367,"open_interest":2232624.4460360003,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"104573","slug":"blockade","label":"Blockade"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"583","slug":"shipping","label":"shipping"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.58,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0045000000000000595,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-28542.503037000006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:50.409396Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:50.409396Z","added_at":"2026-07-13T18:15:33.710160Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","chart_24h":[264599.43446300004,251701.961997,258446.54550300003,257644.167443,268580.274492,270938.414058,266093.273433,248110.283433,236834.334619,256336.25662899998,261330.699089,265602.86953400006,293380.357362,288938.173491,288228.455271,280422.583048,281183.856029,299818.461161,300284.580673,299422.04678200005,365770.843733,370663.393139,361932.058653,381485.386761,380234.056515,373725.469012,358065.826855,372664.315432,387329.00596199994,367285.9851069999,346014.01261599996,342165.475728]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"30829","ticker":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","title":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/democrats+2028+donkey.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/democrats+2028+donkey.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-11T18:35:56.805000Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1273754813.0515215,"volume_24hr":339659.23446,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":67.3874740600586,"normalized_volume":100.0,"liquidity":80474156.88963,"open_interest":9571657.794057004,"categories":["Elections","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"264","slug":"primaries","label":"Primaries"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","top_outcome_probability":0.1835,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-311.80944100000033,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","chart_24h":[517209.997805,525101.472574,542428.865707,549698.900314,506176.928829,508268.157457,508196.09389,499198.551195,502309.543828,502291.850575,512588.680252,512486.310244,510336.38431,510726.873986,520834.046239,545254.994333,545067.540796,546168.914302,544462.839775,552610.152343,552439.291987,549117.43357,335819.464419,300629.535357,278128.536859,287327.830026,302316.213307,307867.825571,308115.506921,313633.963295,306342.51915300003,339659.23446]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"959662","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-september-7-2026","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-september-7-2026","title":"Elon Musk # tweets September 5 - September 7, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 5 12:00 PM ET to September 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-09-03T16:08:43Z","end_date":"2026-09-07T16:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-07T18:05:01Z","volume":623819.432,"volume_24hr":334761.797223,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":67.23387145996094,"normalized_volume":40.50960922241211,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":214736.76378100002,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"<40","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009000000000000008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":39077.70694999996,"updated_at":"2026-09-07T18:20:57.785701Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T18:20:57.785701Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T16:16:27.404390Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-september-7-2026","chart_24h":[287518.38587099995,328969.392077,348177.447252,341903.285719,334761.797223]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"983493","ticker":"laptop-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","slug":"laptop-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","title":"$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of the LAPTOP token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token referenced in this market is LAPTOP, the token announced by Hunter Biden for launch on Base, as identified by the token's official channels (https://x.com/Laptoptoken) and confirmed by Hunter Biden or his official representatives.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If the LAPTOP token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/laptop-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1zqhSj27Mu97.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/laptop-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1zqhSj27Mu97.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-07T16:29:12Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":291769.116576,"volume_24hr":291769.11657599994,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":65.78875732421875,"normalized_volume":36.02708053588867,"liquidity":233960.23439,"open_interest":137016.439518,"categories":["Crypto","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"139","slug":"fdv","label":"FDV"},{"id":"170","slug":"biden","label":"Biden"},{"id":"21","slug":"crypto","label":"Crypto"},{"id":"106193","slug":"laptop","label":"laptop"},{"id":"106194","slug":"s-laptop","label":"$LAPTOP"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100150","slug":"memecoins","label":"Memecoins"},{"id":"102368","slug":"pre-market","label":"Pre-Market"},{"id":"731","slug":"hunter-biden","label":"Hunter Biden"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"$10M","top_outcome_probability":0.965,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.46499999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":31104.66352100001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:26:08.798830Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:26:08.798830Z","added_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:07.200711Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/laptop-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,80.4,80.4,1197.480525,3907.944605,5299.596958,19921.892561,25669.994606,52606.519207,69820.266103,74424.10930899999,99519.895552,101259.04807,103231.02884,125156.319259,126684.655663,129528.53913199999,137514.179678,143851.410229,147214.204523,149489.63425099998,152484.421549,156853.99359899998,166098.85322699999,176838.85384,201251.328633,209269.538738,247732.079472,291769.11657599994]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"81557","ticker":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","slug":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","title":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","description":"Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-15T00:27:02.243822Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36307377.464354,"volume_24hr":279093.592778,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":65.32515716552734,"normalized_volume":68.94221496582031,"liquidity":2378742.21718,"open_interest":1414372.3783179997,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"103026","slug":"trump-netanyahu","label":"Trump-Netanyahu"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Gadi Eizenkot","top_outcome_probability":0.5445,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03200000000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":21201.209427000005,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:06.991316Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:06.991316Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","chart_24h":[466521.184746,482807.587051,401533.703702,325732.210839,330705.255985,330132.176477,310266.925967,241546.141259,236210.111352,235931.585988,235172.32287,228828.84537,228856.472341,204281.268065,259792.062253,273300.262262,269976.960413,269593.704997,269513.444554,269458.338951,269987.630648,269112.812553,267093.40358600003,268379.622979,268348.318324,267607.435048,273194.793315,272204.484421,277489.977382,273018.983042,270366.419492,279093.592778]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"945718","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-september-4-september-11-2026","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-september-4-september-11-2026","title":"Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-01T04:00:34Z","end_date":"2026-09-11T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":729369.619492,"volume_24hr":250990.566311,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.22402954101562,"normalized_volume":41.46430206298828,"liquidity":315818.44743,"open_interest":201197.707727,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"180-199","top_outcome_probability":0.285,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.019999999999999962,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2944.224822999993,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:23:32.412001Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:23:32.412001Z","added_at":"2026-09-01T04:12:29.640994Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-september-4-september-11-2026","chart_24h":[165861.319576,171207.81017,181714.77014,196038.60429299998,199344.722035,197131.896055,195199.25864800002,193464.17627400003,199055.621144,202644.09453200002,198573.75927900002,207091.559466,216503.061117,217465.94747,220690.786711,228810.961432,235255.863367,238872.67275000003,244658.951398,232671.24269800002,232673.693879,230081.441431,229019.307465,243319.165482,259649.14022600002,267131.62087,277249.33414600004,276774.520241,276021.117238,282095.33195799997,291521.647396,250990.566311]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"149565","ticker":"russia-parliamentary-election-winner","slug":"russia-parliamentary-election-winner","title":"Russia Parliamentary Election Winner","description":"Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.\n\nNote: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T21:27:45.212078Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3623371.1717639994,"volume_24hr":223906.47112600002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":63.04977798461914,"normalized_volume":51.89583206176758,"liquidity":895719.59375,"open_interest":452412.954757,"categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104722","slug":"russia-election","label":"Russia Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"United Russia (ER)","top_outcome_probability":0.9875,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":219070.53159700002,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:13.853696Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:13.853696Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-winner","chart_24h":[4812.406599999999,4808.544599999999,4810.455599999999,3811.4301,3807.2091,3425.32835,3420.9816,3417.0241,3425.74285,3452.42485,3443.835958,3446.856958,3479.536458,3506.518458,2927.035279,2938.981279,2936.940279,2948.125279,2951.726279,3012.450029,2213.040029,2028.183029,2025.802029,2042.176279,2099.045279,588.617235,843.2642349999999,69243.474235,139297.333035,139290.218635,223905.86112600006,223906.47112600002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"158505","ticker":"clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","slug":"clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","title":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2025-nKCKPZK92UBU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2025-nKCKPZK92UBU.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-11T23:22:56.488713Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14388487.671567991,"volume_24hr":199210.075999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.859169006347656,"normalized_volume":61.80554962158203,"liquidity":385141.2508,"open_interest":5742083.547452,"categories":["Crypto","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"21","slug":"crypto","label":"Crypto"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"531","slug":"us-law","label":"us law"},{"id":"105292","slug":"crypto-legal","label":"Crypto Legal"},{"id":"105797","slug":"clarity-act","label":"Clarity Act"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.155,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":98023.686304,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:13.853696Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:13.853696Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","chart_24h":[101186.38969499999,100534.727445,103486.535729,102459.063961,103415.723961,97680.567495,100000.45984799998,96115.70661300002,94433.86661299998,94191.402496,92783.475438,82778.20093300001,83942.496816,83789.56564,84117.82976,88650.40799899997,74047.425058,72707.29329599997,71414.22552099999,91466.72309399999,90615.664274,90697.54426699998,117409.53466899997,117381.580666,110460.67890299996,98254.34596800001,105619.55452800001,103050.560412,105111.30041200001,99607.08864899998,157588.77364899998,199210.075999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31195","ticker":"putin-out-before-2027","slug":"putin-out-before-2027","title":"Putin out as President of Russia by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-06T22:30:10.584000Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23146913.987984993,"volume_24hr":161134.46794200002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.72716522216797,"normalized_volume":65.42262268066406,"liquidity":859103.09183,"open_interest":8958588.269738,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999981,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2423.737068999999,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[108693.87402999999,110448.83658199999,194225.37394999998,191145.75190099998,191444.366071,194467.690808,193759.100811,192270.28230700002,190373.91047700003,197008.95689200002,196959.95689200002,197099.956892,202223.45775300002,202259.172039,187590.94907300003,198043.479134,198201.41917100002,199291.35917100002,198763.503457,201933.716987,204615.61698700002,189459.79041800002,175103.09850100003,160484.537645,147989.629441,148029.951941,151074.631296,140219.503123,140715.36312300002,140711.47229600002,161810.27938800002,161134.46794200002]},{"source":"myriad","id":"733","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-october","title":"Will the Iranian Regime fall before October?","description":"**Market Dates:**\n\n- **Market Period**: From the publication date through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Market Close:** September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.\n\n**Resolution Criteria:**\n\n- Resolves to \"**Yes**\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern within the Market Period.\n- Resolves to “**No**” if not.\n\n**Resolution Details:**\n\n- A potential “Yes” resolution requires credible sources to confirm that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical control—have been dismantled, rendered inoperative, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of governance, or that they have otherwise lost de facto control over most of Iran’s population. This may occur through revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign authority.\n- Routine political events, including elections, reforms, or leadership transitions, do not qualify. Power shifts or internal coups that leave the core structure of the Islamic Republic intact also do not qualify.\n- To qualify, a definitive break in institutional continuity is required, such as the establishment of a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or a new constitution that replaces the Islamic Republic.\n- Loss of control over limited territory or opposition from rebel or exile groups does not qualify unless the Islamic Republic ceases to govern the majority of Iran’s population within the country.\n- The market will be resolved based on reports from the Iranian governements official communication channels, [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/), [Al Jazeera English](https://www.aljazeera.com/) and the [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/).\n\n**Cancellation Conditions:**\n\n- The resolution sources are unavailable or compromised.\n- Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable determination of the outcome.\n\nIn the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/Qme6hLC8UgGR6j2Lg1X3LKZhqeFV4WXAg6kgKnW2Xmhcy9","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/070b4533-1dff-428c-5d55-d83b894cb000/public","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-12T16:01:53Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":56402.943039,"volume_24hr":1015.45958,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.799442291259766,"normalized_volume":40.09464645385742,"liquidity":2000.002247,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.03903668,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the Iranian Regime fall before October?","top_outcome_probability":0.03903668,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T03:38:14.650076Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T03:38:14.650076Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-october","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"970292","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-september-7-september-9-2026","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-september-7-september-9-2026","title":"Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-05T16:07:15Z","end_date":"2026-09-09T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":153878.43693000003,"volume_24hr":128422.733365,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.48788833618164,"normalized_volume":32.45674514770508,"liquidity":103393.50773,"open_interest":60542.775020999994,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"40-64","top_outcome_probability":0.505,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":15131.198012000006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:24:43.036666Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:24:43.036666Z","added_at":"2026-09-05T16:17:54.536329Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-september-7-september-9-2026","chart_24h":[21460.584672,28181.127676,30197.155181000002,33536.072329,35875.067269,35165.225204,32573.581655,33065.225556000005,36952.865595,43118.991119,43116.103294,53216.873175,58903.996895000004,59701.284677999996,61778.539292999994,63557.946068,76776.614626,77668.467271,82666.517463,81837.76496700001,83600.49298999998,81717.718918,79302.58399,90622.38251699999,108928.744372,111819.44855599999,117856.66361,121856.451432,120264.19591000001,121566.62599799999,126995.626856,128422.733365]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"950983","ticker":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-begins-byptptpt-2-week-pause","slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-begins-byptptpt-2-week-pause","title":"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strikes-iran-by-october-3-2sVnIHq3sjqF.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strikes-iran-by-october-3-2sVnIHq3sjqF.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T00:24:19Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":765223.0103289997,"volume_24hr":123551.61779599999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.110557556152344,"normalized_volume":41.759605407714844,"liquidity":143459.5128,"open_interest":223710.19098800002,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"334","slug":"ceasefire","label":"ceasefire"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"September 30","top_outcome_probability":0.795,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":17749.161032,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:23:43.120801Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:23:43.120801Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T00:35:21.471497Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-begins-byptptpt-2-week-pause","chart_24h":[131085.54791400002,128102.72518300003,127169.678605,125844.52884999999,136314.92848499998,145016.378195,141209.80826,131008.99574899998,114662.89930100003,112933.97228000002,110216.44146600002,110153.69374400002,112134.84602000006,108684.36366500001,111445.19557799998,117321.70729700004,95729.97669299999,86762.08582800002,90470.11675900001,90962.79548200006,100251.88137600003,139300.5818940001,135310.79899,124602.273476,125327.65450900001,124013.68010099999,123785.39798800004,124561.99963600001,123794.81977,120967.55164300003,120409.903115,123551.61779599999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"881744","ticker":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-vote-share","slug":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-vote-share","title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-20T18:27:05Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-07T16:09:30Z","volume":374554.3979890001,"volume_24hr":122349.98118499998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.015384674072266,"normalized_volume":37.471473693847656,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":85567.79517900001,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"103721","slug":"saxony-anhalt","label":"Saxony-Anhalt"},{"id":"104910","slug":"sachsen-anhalt","label":"Sachsen-Anhalt"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"42-45%","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-12333.26514800002,"updated_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:17.195061Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:17.195061Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T20:04:12.401648Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-vote-share","chart_24h":[223813.551112,185197.705067,122349.98118499998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"660109","ticker":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-02T21:49:47.480763Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7978032.622691001,"volume_24hr":119691.78411100026,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.8017692565918,"normalized_volume":57.46177673339844,"liquidity":311451.71773,"open_interest":1752101.862713,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0195,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0019999999999999983,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":73991.80175300027,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:46.486018Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:46.486018Z","added_at":"2026-07-02T21:55:47.773743Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440","chart_24h":[45699.982358,56806.53235800001,52380.21962900001,55500.010532,67276.518335,70023.74154700003,63074.61154700003,63094.681546999724,63183.02154700003,60445.50821500003,42934.03821500002,42554.38821499974,42529.38821500003,42527.99621500003,42541.14621499972,82517.85621499973,83081.85621499973,83407.14372200002,83407.14372199972,116972.22372200002,120072.92372200004,120380.99245800004,116597.17924699975,116311.03924699975,114441.56924699973,114442.58752399975,112906.48474700005,113478.92566100003,113577.83232600024,115608.5708760002,116881.6144680002,119691.78411100026]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SyhgEZC68s","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-democrats-win-the-2026-tex","title":"Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?","description":"Resolves yes if Democrats win the Texas Senate Seat election in 2026.\n\nCurrent primary candidates include Crockett and Talarico on the Democratic side and Cornyn, Paxton and Bell on the Republican side.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-29T00:35:26.596000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":204123.85948995213,"volume_24hr":3653.9558556288966,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.420780181884766,"normalized_volume":55.362281799316406,"liquidity":10051.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default","2026-us-congressional-elections","texas"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.509735,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?","top_outcome_probability":0.509735,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.007428000000000101,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3551.9558556288966,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:21:06.764054Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:21:06.764054Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-the-democrats-win-the-2026-tex","chart_24h":[0.502307,0.502307,0.502307,0.502307,0.502307,0.502307,0.502307,0.482412,0.482412,0.474153,0.474153,0.477313,0.481944,0.481944,0.481849,0.47593,0.47593,0.457096,0.497999,0.497999,0.497634,0.497634,0.497634,0.497634,0.502591,0.502591,0.505051,0.506277,0.511762,0.509735]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73223","ticker":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","slug":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","title":"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025-uyYzbnJj0tjS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025-uyYzbnJj0tjS.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T19:35:55.838000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":882240.5816009999,"volume_24hr":110189.726252,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.00096893310547,"normalized_volume":42.64143371582031,"liquidity":76634.1521,"open_interest":387051.578362,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.145,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999981,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":42440.411405000006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:06.991316Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:06.991316Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","chart_24h":[67749.31484699999,67058.100558,36483.693713,48677.930800999995,48661.343719000004,50009.726075,43381.85121499999,44576.698143999994,45477.583606999986,45358.19108,45383.96569599999,46968.66022799999,72717.52186,72817.04567299999,97151.23567299997,97298.29449699998,96882.41449699998,96875.27164099998,97035.85707599999,113330.74099499997,112895.74099599998,112909.07432999997,107735.64528499999,107735.64528499998,107644.699096,108554.82481099998,108961.401481,108860.958625,110094.75862499996,109446.58672499999,111188.45339299999,110189.726252]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34044","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:37:56.300000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41063561.95227985,"volume_24hr":109595.395693,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.94880676269531,"normalized_volume":69.92073822021484,"liquidity":419953.36024,"open_interest":5647628.621695,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0375,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-192027.83012100006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","chart_24h":[301623.22581400006,292478.384256,26266.829467000003,27658.191994,29320.888657,29901.559059000003,29481.180024,29479.800024000007,29531.082075999995,32129.834675000002,32321.354675000002,32243.224675000005,32243.224675000005,32019.364675000004,31738.634111,31449.306154000005,39140.849001999995,38942.149002000006,36101.381001999995,36748.180463000004,36708.600714,32449.462041999996,30493.753749,30276.181645,29680.667566,29687.137565999998,110178.656127,110101.626127,110739.794496,111056.804931,109490.134114,109595.395693]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"881763","ticker":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-bsw-vote-share","slug":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-bsw-vote-share","title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-bsw-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections--xdpxBYiZm7Z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-bsw-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections--xdpxBYiZm7Z.jpg","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-20T18:32:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-07T16:09:30Z","volume":128154.33600799997,"volume_24hr":104268.42743,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.469383239746094,"normalized_volume":31.470182418823242,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":75852.92425099999,"categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"103721","slug":"saxony-anhalt","label":"Saxony-Anhalt"},{"id":"104910","slug":"sachsen-anhalt","label":"Sachsen-Anhalt"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"5-7%","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-428.5133710000082,"updated_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:17.195061Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:17.195061Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T20:04:12.401648Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-bsw-vote-share","chart_24h":[107639.599039,105157.838059,104268.42743]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"32225","ticker":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","title":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.\n\nA party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.\n\nThe following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.\n\nAll House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.\n\nSeats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.\n\nHouse members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026-lO2ezdY5lP2i.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026-lO2ezdY5lP2i.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-11T19:50:44.885000Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10281288.322205996,"volume_24hr":102836.12731000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.33666229248047,"normalized_volume":59.310550689697266,"liquidity":1193190.9152,"open_interest":3646493.105897,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"103123","slug":"parent-for-derivative","label":"Parent For Derivative"},{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102289","slug":"midterms","label":"Midterms"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Democratic Party","top_outcome_probability":0.865,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":60996.721720000016,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","chart_24h":[44106.235667999994,43873.145668,43779.112035000006,44160.620495,44201.909578,44337.172753,44331.362753,46436.509603,46005.259603,45817.378492,44805.378492,78229.200576,97875.74084500001,98614.663922,101221.751751,110444.545609,119812.89187500002,121557.341875,122165.27347500001,102284.870433,102228.080216,102588.23232,102545.542896,102568.53139600002,100000.641396,100010.641396,100123.14140200001,100912.238765,103050.84876500002,106617.14761600002,105433.61004200001,102836.12731000001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"90177","ticker":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-25T18:05:19.721000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66714268.024928,"volume_24hr":100808.61112799999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.145870208740234,"normalized_volume":73.84552764892578,"liquidity":1008390.01981,"open_interest":8643400.199086,"categories":["Politics","Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"71","slug":"aliens","label":"Aliens"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.0385,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":42655.05107999999,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:09.463399Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:09.463399Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","chart_24h":[101272.866537,99400.347575,101134.018096,105362.88466,106376.222293,106626.701768,106517.691768,42183.94796499999,43437.267964999985,28885.607965,28904.845701000002,29466.755701000002,29779.565701000003,29771.745700999993,30537.047987,31099.640702,31258.27281,32868.94384199999,30226.409557999996,30003.239665,30003.239665,42210.577955,84558.620957,85203.553925,85226.349715,85247.129715,98822.39392300001,98721.186494,99288.50542199999,101191.35197899998,100818.68161999999,100808.61112799999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"830255","ticker":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-15-20260810150912478","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-15-20260810150912478","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-11T09:20:21.932904Z","end_date":"2026-09-15T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1718392.995352,"volume_24hr":98842.38572999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.95746994018555,"normalized_volume":46.8956184387207,"liquidity":478911.84224,"open_interest":837320.984325,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104139","slug":"hormuz","label":"Hormuz"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0035,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0009999999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-29369.516075000007,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:20:56.196507Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:20:56.196507Z","added_at":"2026-08-11T16:22:07.846746Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-15-20260810150912478","chart_24h":[128211.90180499999,128211.85062099998,128211.85062100002,130251.15613899998,135012.230939,131754.451189,128070.320939,128125.08093900002,126929.88068900001,126929.89068899999,126929.890689,138403.870689,138433.96068900003,138433.96068900003,137575.153189,137575.153189,137575.153189,137408.49318900003,137408.493189,32457.361689,32478.361689,32479.966355,32329.363947,32334.86028,35854.780607,35804.579805,35807.548804,36034.490131,36231.99412499998,86746.00058499999,98835.66259999998,98842.38572999998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"956176","ticker":"dtrump-out-as-president-by-september-30","slug":"dtrump-out-as-president-by-september-30","title":"Trump out as President by September 30?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-out-as-president-by-march-31-c3SENQhH7Ao1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-out-as-president-by-march-31-c3SENQhH7Ao1.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-02T21:12:57Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":396226.2379310002,"volume_24hr":87348.67203100001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.782440185546875,"normalized_volume":37.800662994384766,"liquidity":197037.49604,"open_interest":308474.8596,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"100453","slug":"resign","label":"resign"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"393","slug":"donald-trump","label":"donald trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0009999999999999992,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":33898.123977,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:23:58.571091Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:23:58.571091Z","added_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:26.038934Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/dtrump-out-as-president-by-september-30","chart_24h":[55529.548054000006,45894.275954000004,45911.44676500001,41190.51437700001,41052.52159900001,41031.71093300001,48684.774201,47239.41620100001,48860.147092,72413.37709200001,72413.37709200001,63447.964426,64227.964426,64227.96442600001,64185.8427,64711.231309,64719.231309,65258.40222,65136.179999,65550.570225,65550.570225,114571.652615,114351.67283799998,114351.672838,114351.67283799998,114551.672838,114561.75283800001,114653.234775,114763.23477500002,114794.47509800002,87399.12603,87348.67203100001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"32228","ticker":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms","slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms","title":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms","description":"This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.\n\nA party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.\n\nA party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.\n\nThe following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers.\n\nFor determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.\n\nFor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. \n\nFor seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.\n\nSenate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/balance-of-power-2024-election-r-Fp-y4ONJBS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/balance-of-power-2024-election-r-Fp-y4ONJBS.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-11T21:05:18.843000Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11231518.421608,"volume_24hr":84957.75415900002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.52037811279297,"normalized_volume":59.9617805480957,"liquidity":1234702.95077,"open_interest":14534703.876567,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"102289","slug":"midterms","label":"Midterms"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Democrats Sweep","top_outcome_probability":0.515,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-10380.156766,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","chart_24h":[28650.580675999998,28389.926058999998,28713.712293999997,28904.512882,30901.211859,29509.053443,36905.768735,37072.661425,37137.120886,37096.303809,37124.380733,37124.380733,45716.764976,45742.764976,48902.033976,48670.784382,49117.020300000004,49017.020300000004,64372.348376,64308.820932,63173.02815699999,60973.729206,62373.155176,44154.805344,44458.635365,44433.458511000004,74559.21234900001,75442.868288,75638.528491,85070.57939900001,85442.77413300001,84957.75415900002]},{"source":"manifold","id":"461Vv3RpCpvUKKczW8Yw","ticker":"461Vv3RpCpvUKKczW8Yw","slug":"who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a","title":"2028 US Presidential Election winner?","description":"Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to \"Yes\" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nRequest your candidate in comments.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/predyx_markets%2F2194b04e5577.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-10T06:40:30.545000Z","end_date":"2028-11-06T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1316544.470239817,"volume_24hr":2852.7609226952045,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.06855392456055,"normalized_volume":73.530029296875,"liquidity":159050.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":["us-politics","2028-us-presidential-election-6tdsp26zly","politics-default","donald-trump","elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"JD Vance","top_outcome_probability":0.21,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1814.0408000026218,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T10:52:25.504631Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T10:52:25.504631Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a","chart_24h":[3439.043389726026,3566.4066220749805,3566.843157634888,3566.843157634888,3779.7387839447388,3879.7387839447388,3727.925361381137,3996.0439288321213,3995.697040280054,3005.5940013055615,3005.5940013055615,2988.780922695202,2852.7609226952045]},{"source":"gemini","id":"16","ticker":"CTRLUSHOU","slug":"which-party-will-win-the-us-house","title":"Which party will win the U.S. House?","description":"Which party will win the U.S. House in 2026?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/Contract_Image_b1759f71-f6ac-46af-95fe-7a920466ba72.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-23T16:08:44.150000Z","end_date":"2027-02-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":283914.0,"volume_24hr":4096.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.409637451171875,"normalized_volume":99.45046997070312,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["House"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Democratic Party","top_outcome_probability":0.85,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T12:37:22.088658Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T12:37:22.088658Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/CTRLUSHOU/which-party-will-win-the-us-house","chart_24h":[4123.0,4097.0,4101.0,4096.0]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"983483","ticker":"trump-renames-new-mexico-to-new-america-byptptpt","slug":"trump-renames-new-mexico-to-new-america-byptptpt","title":"Trump renames New Mexico to New America by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, presidential memorandum, or proclamation, signs any bill into law, or otherwise formally directs the federal government to rename New Mexico to \"New America\" or any other name including \"America\" by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA formal Trump administration directive to rename New Mexico, including through the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"rename\" includes directing the federal government to use the new name when referring to the state, regardless of whether the state's legal name is changed.\n\nStatements, social media posts, or expressions of support for renaming New Mexico will not qualify unless accompanied by a qualifying formal action or directive.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-renames-new-mexico-to-new-america-byptptpt-EeethjVg306D.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-renames-new-mexico-to-new-america-byptptpt-EeethjVg306D.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-07T16:24:45Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75328.20150300002,"volume_24hr":75328.201503,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.39186477661133,"normalized_volume":28.690706253051758,"liquidity":77871.1152,"open_interest":57802.457010000006,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101141","slug":"new-mexico","label":"New Mexico"},{"id":"106179","slug":"lake-ontario","label":"lake ontario"},{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.39999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":14575.056204000006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:26:08.798830Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:26:08.798830Z","added_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:07.200711Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-renames-new-mexico-to-new-america-byptptpt","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,2255.850425,3324.14254,5080.547896,13022.909247,30134.766135,30167.513379,34347.042154,40026.799135,40058.989135,51718.95233100001,52093.95233100001,57344.992331,63980.606617000005,64415.755776,64732.14131500001,66384.32879,66384.32878999999,66642.06879,67227.41367300002,67227.413673,69180.482553,69186.546369,75098.209943,75109.20994300001,75161.841503,75328.201503,75328.201503]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"166435","ticker":"next-prime-minister-of-sweden","slug":"next-prime-minister-of-sweden","title":"Next Prime Minister of Sweden","description":"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner-IocfiwWAt86R.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner-IocfiwWAt86R.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T20:34:34.381805Z","end_date":"2026-09-13T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4961313.303265999,"volume_24hr":68815.536479,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.551513671875,"normalized_volume":54.078025817871094,"liquidity":1269294.42996,"open_interest":380357.57804699993,"categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"191","slug":"sweden","label":"Sweden"},{"id":"103150","slug":"swedish","label":"Swedish"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"106088","slug":"sweden-elections","label":"Sweden Elections"},{"id":"106091","slug":"sweden-parliamentary-elections","label":"Sweden Parliamentary Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Magdalena Andersson","top_outcome_probability":0.795,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-6453.437913000005,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:15.182049Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:15.182049Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden","chart_24h":[80765.291119,81750.581119,82508.784627,82345.369169,84090.910911,82327.446727,83677.41149099999,83647.640251,83734.195705,92405.220042,93687.75447,93914.236362,96715.204637,96717.846687,102541.838417,102048.952701,105592.30245,108255.992462,105987.358422,90255.147057,96603.892104,102401.562104,101718.64958499999,101691.642955,100320.687213,100290.405379,72411.690854,75445.889667,79823.029665,79795.810036,69206.719745,68815.536479]},{"source":"predict","id":"239643","ticker":"239643","slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","title":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/market-images/5cf65713-a2b8-4c71-92c3-eae9146b728a.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-24T18:35:00Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":978864.4900000001,"volume_24hr":13597.570000000022,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.500404357910156,"normalized_volume":63.166141510009766,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics","Elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Raphael Warnock","top_outcome_probability":0.779,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:55.107491Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:17:55.107491Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T21:05:49.124017Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","chart_24h":[2348.859999999986,15425.229999999996,15446.729999999996,15502.729999999996,15502.729999999996,15502.729999999996,15392.729999999996,15392.729999999996,15392.729999999996,15600.189999999988,15836.430000000008,14619.930000000008,14619.930000000008,14097.63000000002,14097.63000000002,13729.070000000022,13597.570000000022]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"711714","ticker":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T23:11:24.825515Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T20:29:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28933476.511043,"volume_24hr":67524.253009,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.37633514404297,"normalized_volume":67.15571594238281,"liquidity":235072.0222,"open_interest":887514.619228,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"September 30","top_outcome_probability":0.875,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-125264.19184700001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:52.042739Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:52.042739Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T23:28:44.335531Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","chart_24h":[290799.335022,293261.548674,295839.711265,293732.293244,253155.67994,252877.116447,244618.05804100004,238655.399764,235646.879087,211480.416208,208487.71346500004,208472.034405,212752.57363700002,211409.638933,210957.10563200002,212906.925632,213495.476908,211692.520439,210842.68867600002,211548.66096100002,214533.65871500003,215406.29742400002,84334.077651,68852.466395,67522.831216,66655.367186,70941.953303,70386.845194,71791.394387,70856.475494,67951.24762299999,67524.253009]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"60182","ticker":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","slug":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","title":"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.\n\nIf multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.\n\nIf no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-16T22:30:31.859771Z","end_date":"2026-10-10T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23788938.250828005,"volume_24hr":65928.11157,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.15553665161133,"normalized_volume":65.63390350341797,"liquidity":1741654.2377,"open_interest":1259066.3575149998,"categories":["Culture","Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"18","slug":"awards","label":"Awards"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yulia Navalnaya","top_outcome_probability":0.075,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-803.5102570000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:04.988574Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:04.988574Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","chart_24h":[35427.917583,35530.048583,35537.462584,35426.472417,36591.684386,35900.226234,35886.44638,20636.03138,20546.729461,24522.397373,23415.683899,23639.806879,22105.777616,22101.794616,73251.170127,73019.960127,73524.042868,73961.758284,73961.335937,74158.977684,73863.594214,73931.312714,74060.26329,62161.88429,62144.448582,66425.768582,66571.290582,66596.69948,66535.24498,66662.668038,66347.721082,65928.11157]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"881716","ticker":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-spd-or-grune","slug":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-spd-or-grune","title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.\n\nThis market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.\n\nValid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-winner-YHHbQcKZp2Gq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-winner-YHHbQcKZp2Gq.png","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-20T18:22:13Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-07T16:16:48Z","volume":80308.50731700003,"volume_24hr":59327.03251,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.18743896484375,"normalized_volume":29.018770217895508,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":43538.302149,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"103721","slug":"saxony-anhalt","label":"Saxony-Anhalt"},{"id":"104910","slug":"sachsen-anhalt","label":"Sachsen-Anhalt"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0004999999999999449,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-6910.792255,"updated_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:14.514053Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:14.514053Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T20:04:12.401648Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-spd-or-grune","chart_24h":[66237.824765,66040.094765,59327.03251]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34051","ticker":"netanyahu-out-before-2027","slug":"netanyahu-out-before-2027","title":"Netanyahu out by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/netanyahu-out-in-2025-Vc7bE4GtiJzM.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/netanyahu-out-in-2025-Vc7bE4GtiJzM.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:38:14.261000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":124218280.0466106,"volume_24hr":56308.50489299998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.7116813659668,"normalized_volume":79.02937316894531,"liquidity":107738.3289,"open_interest":447671.86301299994,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.485,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":43569.100387999984,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:00.505464Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[12739.404505,12804.404505,13628.369784999999,13603.099785,13603.099785,34980.400988,43239.583461,43201.847613,43256.998398,44036.548398,44040.598398,44038.598398,44038.598398,44038.598398,43192.886733,42673.23032100001,42700.230321,42700.230321,42700.230321,62306.40333400001,58951.673099,58951.67309900001,61482.189390000014,61482.18938999999,61244.453542,61244.453542,61244.45354200001,61258.05417200001,61260.124171999996,63464.89021099999,62118.63790499999,56308.50489299998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"881761","ticker":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-spd-vote-share","slug":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-spd-vote-share","title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-spd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-yIpq6y3hMaSi.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-spd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-yIpq6y3hMaSi.png","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-20T18:32:01Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-07T16:10:58Z","volume":221520.30569000007,"volume_24hr":56198.496575,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.69390869140625,"normalized_volume":34.46713638305664,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":63530.676774,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"103721","slug":"saxony-anhalt","label":"Saxony-Anhalt"},{"id":"104910","slug":"sachsen-anhalt","label":"Sachsen-Anhalt"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"9%+","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0004999999999999449,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-3798.5857799999976,"updated_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:17.195061Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:17.195061Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T20:04:12.401648Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-spd-vote-share","chart_24h":[69721.066596,66624.359235,56198.496575]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"881762","ticker":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-vote-share","slug":"sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-vote-share","title":"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-greens-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-2c3x0eZEHqb9.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-greens-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-2c3x0eZEHqb9.jpg","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-20T18:32:07Z","end_date":"2026-09-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-07T16:09:30Z","volume":333854.34165599995,"volume_24hr":55886.16527600001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.64327621459961,"normalized_volume":36.802738189697266,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":97997.123812,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"103721","slug":"saxony-anhalt","label":"Saxony-Anhalt"},{"id":"104910","slug":"sachsen-anhalt","label":"Sachsen-Anhalt"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"7%+","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0004999999999999449,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-13657.752838000008,"updated_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:17.195061Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T16:33:17.195061Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T20:04:12.401648Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-vote-share","chart_24h":[108600.80853,70925.85368500001,55886.16527600001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"147974","ticker":"how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election","slug":"how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election","title":"United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?","description":"Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election-nLLocGcIAe-G.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election-nLLocGcIAe-G.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T22:34:31.425088Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":436279.00681399996,"volume_24hr":54387.614175,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.39670944213867,"normalized_volume":38.36757278442383,"liquidity":380336.66906,"open_interest":127997.886428,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"104722","slug":"russia-election","label":"Russia Election"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"325–339","top_outcome_probability":0.36,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-43.170000000000016,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:13.853696Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:13.853696Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election","chart_24h":[792.087414,1286.711072,1286.711072,1104.242768,1043.42,1033.44,1033.44,1052.61,1168.16,1209.464348,1214.322969,1163.731346,1194.663256,1186.0245,1188.737011,1181.997011,1137.998099,1137.998099,1137.998099,1075.998099,1078.788099,1078.788099,1081.337928,731.337928,726.337928,726.337928,726.337928,51079.660291,53825.310291,54036.385649,54111.656742,54387.614175]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"478472","ticker":"russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by","slug":"russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by","title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.\n\nOnly agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025-w2voYOygx80B.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025-w2voYOygx80B.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-13T03:30:46.221000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7442449.622843002,"volume_24hr":50265.47649100002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.685184478759766,"normalized_volume":56.960350036621094,"liquidity":797010.7778,"open_interest":628598.34409,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"452","slug":"zelensky","label":"zelensky"},{"id":"216","slug":"zelenskyy","label":"zelenskyy"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.68,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.32000000000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":680.1092229999999,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:36.140013Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T14:19:36.140013Z","added_at":"2026-05-13T03:47:46.707256Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by","chart_24h":[52014.480096,52815.377192,68588.245378,64849.090166999995,64701.620916,65459.647411000005,48738.993990000024,51222.66127800002,56455.140084000035,56822.68165800002,55119.46165800003,52776.21274800001,53020.77703400002,52990.77703400003,53188.20379600003,53131.64406000002,52285.11406000003,52432.27559900002,54103.849675000005,54695.59653000004,54756.374308000035,53070.065744000036,53086.98750400001,53691.376416,53362.52868100001,51876.09661100001,50974.39766000003,50323.12078900003,50357.77742000003,49781.04553600003,49813.58644600002,50265.47649100002]}],"meta":{"page":1,"page_size":50,"total":4360,"total_pages":88},"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?categories=Politics","as_of":"2026-09-08T14:30:45.298833Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"}}