{"items":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"287395","ticker":"fed-decision-in-july-181","slug":"fed-decision-in-july-181","title":"Fed Decision in July?","description":"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-20T00:12:28.430927Z","end_date":"2026-07-29T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":91753325.31313422,"volume_24hr":2947392.8183310004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":94.2450942993164,"normalized_volume":68.2767333984375,"liquidity":4268612.41468,"open_interest":17985965.306427,"categories":["Economy","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"101550","slug":"jerome-powell","label":"Jerome Powell"},{"id":"100478","slug":"fomc","label":"fomc"},{"id":"159","slug":"fed","label":"Fed"},{"id":"100196","slug":"fed-rates","label":"Fed Rates"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105614","slug":"cpi-release","label":"CPI Release"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No change","top_outcome_probability":0.7455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014999999999999902,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-103918.07620100072,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181","chart_24h":[2665155.9037899976,2523446.8234079992,2401563.124351,2282472.3233450013,2157398.7229760005,2388025.505881,2373135.739233001,2301232.4320880007,2342933.854929,2392444.025598999,3229748.410386999,3219846.8322689994,3208070.779372999,3176128.237501999,3113588.5968409986,3050756.543791999,3050714.2280519987,3010545.494716998,2933134.975188998,2938731.0027859984,3019980.8353499984,2990460.965605999,2993444.1346519985,3010991.870742998,3046013.580957999,3080826.8720179987,3179841.4537269985,3197063.273468998,3203015.095282998,3137216.9680809984,3120143.6599999983,3091703.6364259967,3135973.250820997]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"711714","ticker":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963-FEQHrNm5Q53X.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T23:11:24.825515Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5908540.684066003,"volume_24hr":2046295.2891899997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":88.79329681396484,"normalized_volume":49.320743560791016,"liquidity":746420.76768,"open_interest":1885884.0581259998,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 22","top_outcome_probability":0.999,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0024999999999999467,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-37538.141686999996,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:39.620231Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:39.620231Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T23:28:44.335531Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","chart_24h":[1165595.075828,1138608.0411399999,1132958.6205489996,1133923.6013129994,1082755.4340009997,1084035.2203899994,1252825.4272349998,1308389.5697110002,1350549.841453,1413464.254079,1383326.746124,1388109.329114,1423488.1822420002,1576794.9290640003,1548167.1555039997,1563300.3245150002,1567766.215242,1572265.43587,1560516.1742350003,1555894.2184100004,1549713.0080330002,1608758.8534910001,1609189.757444,1619817.5211669998,1609465.9078729998,1630351.2579749997,1711436.8310789997,1732607.890166,1739921.2858059998,1764484.079483,1902199.58058,1899009.937336,2021508.5277339998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"411239","ticker":"next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia","slug":"next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia","title":"Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?","description":"General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ethiopia-parliamentary-election-winner-ofkn9mmT2_id.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ethiopia-parliamentary-election-winner-ofkn9mmT2_id.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-27T21:54:39.652000Z","end_date":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":230123769.1816823,"volume_24hr":1379123.963383,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":87.01258087158203,"normalized_volume":75.29930114746094,"liquidity":169483.85809,"open_interest":37358.165892000005,"categories":["Elections","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"104289","slug":"ethiopia","label":"Ethiopia"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Abiy Ahmed","top_outcome_probability":0.9485,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.008500000000000063,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-549.1713520000002,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:33.551196Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:33.551196Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia","chart_24h":[2502210.2303170003,2410514.217629,2406197.380117,2360314.848467,2084931.3006260002,2237003.300626,1998008.1658700001,1998033.091243,1997948.2196840001,1997691.2114590001,1997690.949703,1997359.00462,1997359.00462,1997360.058345,1997358.185298,1997427.2159020002,1997627.2159020002,1997606.721294,1997601.617144,1997626.657389,1999293.3173890002,1999298.3173890002,1999288.9698990001,1999210.6012010002,1999217.930201,1999288.72894,1999288.72894,1999366.270035,1999273.79771,2126682.165106,2113219.490604,2113530.143083,1746330.143083]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31875","ticker":"republican-presidential-nominee-2028","slug":"republican-presidential-nominee-2028","title":"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-11T19:42:02.156000Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":679676230.0227876,"volume_24hr":1446971.873963,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":84.75501251220703,"normalized_volume":84.00950622558594,"liquidity":55489144.26054,"open_interest":10128110.107541999,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"264","slug":"primaries","label":"Primaries"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Robert F. Kennedy Jr.","top_outcome_probability":0.49,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028","chart_24h":[209276.079082,207221.62853800002,206106.078835,197612.326116,126190.04314000001,103191.515673,127389.894082,137162.547901,143661.588444,139078.989771,140990.289812,259066.546161,264652.358593,263915.640892,262087.188275,257120.746316,256793.089351,256942.622715,263313.489605,270599.146256,264240.467509,264010.297486,263558.740998,458408.907488,620348.322011,619416.646255,619430.875271,618187.41164,618878.192551,639345.193148,1420833.6516180001,1439538.149829,1447494.837548]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31552","ticker":"presidential-election-winner-2028","slug":"presidential-election-winner-2028","title":"Presidential Election Winner 2028","description":"The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/presidential-election-winner-2024-afdda358-219d-448a-abb5-ba4d14118d71.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/presidential-election-winner-2024-afdda358-219d-448a-abb5-ba4d14118d71.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-11T19:05:46.369000Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":670861156.2233369,"volume_24hr":1176689.543162,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":82.30613708496094,"normalized_volume":83.90164947509766,"liquidity":48480018.80859,"open_interest":58395654.67274399,"categories":["Elections","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"102886","slug":"president","label":"President"},{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"JD Vance","top_outcome_probability":0.1985,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":12590.503232999974,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028","chart_24h":[927469.702945,925302.3911,951195.44171,949654.180785,784815.828766,470963.05665800004,453747.28507700004,559315.000969,731083.525168,783963.0767610001,782464.844383,767967.2938300001,761543.636045,762771.645644,761513.0351260001,759289.9776440001,760841.2448720001,748265.490782,762350.159907,742446.9833290001,741649.499494,738827.709458,743007.16072,773491.19297,780245.090781,779677.788941,778551.975414,777675.351891,783779.739128,858919.8138659999,1178090.5672499998,1180048.46162,1177506.9677249999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"30829","ticker":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","title":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/democrats+2028+donkey.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/democrats+2028+donkey.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-11T18:35:56.805000Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1247375312.0409725,"volume_24hr":1078838.485642,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":81.27079772949219,"normalized_volume":89.1007080078125,"liquidity":72767135.4746,"open_interest":10790274.868105007,"categories":["Elections","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"264","slug":"primaries","label":"Primaries"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Gavin Newsom","top_outcome_probability":0.1975,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-10334.029235000002,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","chart_24h":[665720.863765,668447.304277,689694.009086,688297.492838,612779.9638789999,576069.0018549999,533290.814518,530312.957167,560759.541932,538821.614667,517575.062212,529140.745976,613875.507099,615105.396991,685803.5972780001,709687.501735,708389.632396,693643.548939,695347.389965,705253.927261,705175.810756,715852.024915,718496.637497,719805.12188,1075436.161111,1009734.133165,952345.027766,951522.413465,949616.283497,949799.2233150001,986966.990611,980880.725927,1078100.202987]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"701422","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-17-july-24","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-17-july-24","title":"Elon Musk # tweets July 17 - July 24, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 17 12:00 PM ET to July 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-14T04:00:47Z","end_date":"2026-07-24T16:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-24T20:38:43Z","volume":3649274.156239998,"volume_24hr":976427.7736419997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":80.1158447265625,"normalized_volume":46.37462615966797,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":321376.5144889999,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"200-219","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0635,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":42973.49816900006,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T20:53:07.862059Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T20:53:07.862059Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T04:13:19.445860Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-17-july-24","chart_24h":[900291.8556879999,897411.8368779998,910100.7678799998,909030.801072,926548.9869719999,964871.629431,984339.629581,1101755.609771,1093383.438361,1081202.452235,1032406.4439209998,1018980.6434329997,1015494.1720629997,1004372.8315359998,976427.7736419997]},{"source":"gemini","id":"2640","ticker":"CRYPTOSTRUCT26","slug":"will-crypto-market-structure-legislation-become-law","title":"Will crypto market structure legislation become law?","description":"This market resolves to Yes if crypto market structure legislation becomes law by the specified deadline. For purposes of this Contract, 'crypto market structure legislation' means any bill that: (1) Establishes a regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely stablecoins); AND (2) Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (SEC, CFTC, or other) for oversight of digital assets; AND (3) Creates definitions or classifications for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other classifications.  Bills that do the following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: solely regulate stablecoins and/or CBDCs; only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without a regulatory framework; only address crypto taxation; pass only one chamber; as well as appropriations bills; executive orders or agency rules; bills vetoed and not overridden; state legislation. Resolution source: Library of Congress.","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/1X12y7OhZNqwdNenVwemrA/81a6784737b185a4bd7be2276a69d5cf/Contract_Image.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-25T03:23:48.552000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":86958.0,"volume_24hr":14917.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.93047332763672,"normalized_volume":80.91716766357422,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Congressional"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.42,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T05:50:09.673671Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T05:50:09.673671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/CRYPTOSTRUCT26/will-crypto-market-structure-legislation-become-law","chart_24h":[1719.0,1881.0,1632.0,4250.0,5003.0,5019.0,4269.0,11381.0,11404.0,11401.0,11651.0,11889.0,11639.0,11733.0,13184.0,14917.0]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"725896","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-23-july-25","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-23-july-25","title":"Elon Musk # tweets July 23 - July 25, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 23 12:00 PM ET to July 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-20T16:07:17Z","end_date":"2026-07-25T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1002090.821026,"volume_24hr":714224.2137290002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.44499969482422,"normalized_volume":38.74639129638672,"liquidity":92538.40493,"open_interest":154939.62215299997,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"115-139","top_outcome_probability":0.6355,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.6205,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":104148.98485600013,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:53:12.740902Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:53:12.740902Z","added_at":"2026-07-20T16:19:13.641826Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-23-july-25","chart_24h":[187870.827474,189741.19446,189758.894045,190918.502006,189256.96934200003,191005.52267700003,195810.895951,210215.76533600004,217372.364826,236196.73413300002,245217.75717100003,292575.47975800006,323661.50354400004,335075.44012900005,341374.142163,371333.506742,373401.960398,364681.03472700005,372041.48253200005,375713.12290700007,387196.991262,451776.2173109999,474175.36667699995,480793.42895399994,545759.0277669999,577540.4081839999,611529.185983,667980.931595,708955.3473840001,706745.5375770001,704348.034116,703329.2212780002,709268.2352830002]},{"source":"opinion","id":"380","ticker":"380","slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","title":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0xcb42f112953cc7e513b8cf74262f32eab068943f50a4f9ab7b827084b1af0c79","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-15T03:51:25Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16851040.0625,"volume_24hr":294856.493,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":75.86063385009766,"normalized_volume":68.35005950927734,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Jon Stewart","top_outcome_probability":0.952,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-29T03:20:59.099733Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-29T03:20:59.099733Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73130","ticker":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:52:17.414000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47282386.32501867,"volume_24hr":685887.4597899998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":75.8565444946289,"normalized_volume":63.42877197265625,"liquidity":814018.2888,"open_interest":7187263.50916,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.275,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":348817.5495659998,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","chart_24h":[321996.3351570001,304703.2060950001,309766.791948,307240.73286799993,305920.7794899999,320360.7547269999,383938.0198250002,416101.15995300026,469108.38869300025,551072.9338860002,536355.1539320003,538823.2477100003,563898.1153730004,622788.2949080004,610105.3131430002,586847.5076790003,589343.7388530003,593567.1448610004,609211.1495550002,604901.0610720003,604682.2240770003,645843.0331490003,659050.0186080002,658824.0056920003,643419.4006300003,643174.0443390002,702802.4054530002,637514.2896359998,640405.4900829999,649231.0297089998,664235.4108649999,676477.9708249999,673361.0739759998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"716159","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-21-july-28","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-21-july-28","title":"Elon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 21 12:00 PM ET to July 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-18T04:06:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-28T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1813857.8222730001,"volume_24hr":651440.149039,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":75.57086181640625,"normalized_volume":42.16353988647461,"liquidity":575316.322,"open_interest":283844.93019,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"280-299","top_outcome_probability":0.2355,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.14400000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":14322.488598000002,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:44.356513Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:44.356513Z","added_at":"2026-07-18T04:11:17.886063Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-21-july-28","chart_24h":[262037.77693000002,263664.48879000003,261360.75879000002,258996.17338400002,257639.999577,259653.49658700003,258955.288166,284279.763645,288801.23166,289611.31600500003,286436.47853100003,316771.245817,334240.74018,352775.59022,366340.283367,392887.05179999996,392599.62125699996,376148.91161899996,363209.042478,372220.01481799997,397855.767955,423172.380915,447505.287379,460836.644659,500978.689514,533033.721192,551862.229646,565476.56054,606944.321329,622447.606358,638567.2388449999,650654.727133,656542.482661]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"449163","ticker":"israel-closes-its-airspace-by","slug":"israel-closes-its-airspace-by","title":"Israel closes its airspace by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-F65UW1ZQCDQ_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-F65UW1ZQCDQ_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T23:52:26.542773Z","end_date":"2026-08-15T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24665812.920433972,"volume_24hr":461746.10492799996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":71.61248016357422,"normalized_volume":58.844390869140625,"liquidity":160827.5941,"open_interest":723856.5036919999,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"103160","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-20","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 20"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.38,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.18000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6924.129685,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:35.536963Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:35.536963Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by","chart_24h":[305611.48851799994,301586.572167,312135.201937,315568.619279,320876.118195,318612.10039299994,346006.36764499993,374708.224825,420714.00794000004,437138.9131,431185.60195,427043.54354499996,426154.59328599996,403764.76316400006,391524.7506380001,393302.643754,386348.27070500003,391577.6518460001,380193.64146600006,382039.20645700005,408790.9401360001,408516.60074600007,426239.1787110001,459854.1622700001,472091.2354590001,466141.18620200007,467031.0842900001,459542.887308,456393.13770900003,455770.797323,453712.644291,471889.22762200003,460108.308598]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"704853","ticker":"will-trump-meet-with-netanyahu-byptptpt-20260714195149520","slug":"will-trump-meet-with-netanyahu-byptptpt-20260714195149520","title":"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu meets with Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both Netanyahu and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-meet-with-netanyahu-by-bQ2rBEuRo_dN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-meet-with-netanyahu-by-bQ2rBEuRo_dN.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-15T01:56:29.444133Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":794307.5354539987,"volume_24hr":445114.7521009991,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":71.21681213378906,"normalized_volume":37.46908187866211,"liquidity":121218.73469,"open_interest":282276.102866,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"103026","slug":"trump-netanyahu","label":"Trump-Netanyahu"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.9565,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.532,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":118983.4530449999,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:33.140466Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:33.140466Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T02:07:28.468149Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-meet-with-netanyahu-byptptpt-20260714195149520","chart_24h":[86307.41243699996,85602.40832499997,86771.74626799997,88213.70577399999,88035.48781399998,88247.99140099998,214556.7194179999,253315.7222299999,265743.1211189998,297611.5991549997,302044.1337809997,341422.3547689997,369105.1728579997,361752.5628279997,374785.37412499957,377943.32533199945,381869.24261999945,384978.4690049994,376072.3925159994,387848.0946939994,389364.0701419994,393919.7320959993,395615.4060519993,405238.2620309993,408425.8906069993,409496.3223059993,418958.5016139993,421292.09381799924,426969.7148379992,426696.7686779992,430321.14428099926,442861.9666169992,443807.2227719992]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"237598","ticker":"iran-leader-end-of-2026","slug":"iran-leader-end-of-2026","title":"Iran leader end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T00:15:11.057586Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":34734030.361562975,"volume_24hr":367933.8096459999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.18244171142578,"normalized_volume":61.23629379272461,"liquidity":1617546.30279,"open_interest":758284.217162,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"103796","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-100","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Mojtaba Khamenei","top_outcome_probability":0.7525,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02499999999999991,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-64024.43742000016,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:22.402965Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:22.402965Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[409064.54258799955,409270.02706499957,409424.5415059996,413156.53202999954,413072.8721669995,422341.603186999,456788.7048650004,465016.1917170004,515542.8994640003,516890.6487660004,517401.97830100043,517906.5371310004,519166.9538740004,519563.8838740004,520640.29493200046,511771.723775001,492313.01728200103,485221.877282001,484771.054014001,483608.4327590009,483572.4429030009,483624.69090300094,483936.06451100094,486645.4195110009,486681.11566600093,458822.2927260021,460874.15410000214,438989.6155090015,401490.3056600006,412028.7703190008,402728.40711700014,366637.24119199987,368087.7235419999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"45915","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election","slug":"brazil-presidential-election","title":"Brazil Presidential Election","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T20:07:57.760000Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":115755135.39525202,"volume_24hr":354054.728481,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.7669906616211,"normalized_volume":70.02146911621094,"liquidity":9192736.79415,"open_interest":3940933.885157,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101252","slug":"macro-election-2","label":"Macro Election 2"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","top_outcome_probability":0.615,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-7809.986185999991,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","chart_24h":[499089.047864,497048.764976,495546.476009,467118.873922,375416.11243400007,368445.13047400006,297193.315225,287080.549699,286496.61808200006,290129.25257700006,275674.838005,286620.489849,340033.57066300005,311632.507892,292400.499537,286577.71636900003,288996.178093,329263.16373900004,354508.230197,296553.396934,318948.352888,314964.765549,349259.783056,349356.37049400003,359989.819982,366092.982368,350866.316827,351142.39106500003,353172.128799,351328.61518900003,349840.64989700005,350642.068929,354171.694429]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"707496","ticker":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042","slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042","title":"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strikes-iran-by-october-3-2sVnIHq3sjqF.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strikes-iran-by-october-3-2sVnIHq3sjqF.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-15T19:54:20.028056Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2861230.4594639987,"volume_24hr":330823.87994799996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":67.54785919189453,"normalized_volume":44.862098693847656,"liquidity":217246.06094,"open_interest":775248.3624140001,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"334","slug":"ceasefire","label":"ceasefire"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.715,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.18999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":24763.315724000022,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:35.378180Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:35.378180Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T19:59:53.066022Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042","chart_24h":[221760.93874399996,216301.17561099998,217236.887218,213920.63127799996,218425.18245699996,219013.66871299996,223083.79247899994,219933.710328,211038.488748,202200.23397500004,201358.40469200004,202778.21826000002,193127.554061,183161.02551300003,181203.96465500002,191969.41510300004,181807.938781,181466.843186,190551.873372,196864.38452,200423.03759700002,178720.027893,193498.979282,202486.57984999998,219538.80020599999,228510.57750699998,234692.02425099997,246665.19032499997,254610.32813099996,291793.851047,304575.461831,311042.273161,316085.24279299995]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"727682","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-24-july-31","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-24-july-31","title":"Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 24 12:00 PM ET to July 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T04:00:46Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":607201.631183,"volume_24hr":298712.620966,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":66.92354583740234,"normalized_volume":36.00763702392578,"liquidity":661622.92273,"open_interest":179506.61282699998,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"240-259","top_outcome_probability":0.136,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.067,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6604.2276660000025,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:53:18.671349Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:53:18.671349Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T04:08:51.810989Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-24-july-31","chart_24h":[69914.494549,66460.691474,66186.490122,68531.252311,69717.472656,70237.470656,67614.886213,73934.542882,68251.452288,77141.615444,79393.690694,96830.730309,101312.293607,111873.396519,115259.271201,135663.752524,138458.761208,135195.182957,132870.752242,138793.90489900002,144257.494823,159436.672061,201544.993653,210542.855436,243577.420526,253572.283321,259301.466418,274732.886879,281037.36224600003,287786.910115,290732.277528,290312.784198,298077.404104]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"267102","ticker":"kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","slug":"kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31-j0_GAJMNgJ_G.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31-j0_GAJMNgJ_G.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-14T00:25:34.154359Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:55:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66497538.851981446,"volume_24hr":323743.738152,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":66.31468963623047,"normalized_volume":65.8983154296875,"liquidity":442691.16655,"open_interest":2873340.976982,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104127","slug":"mojtaba-khamenei","label":"Mojtaba Khamenei"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104230","slug":"kharg-island","label":"Kharg Island"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.0855,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.018000000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":29884.73178600002,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","chart_24h":[365300.036278,367821.322316,370552.295062,370683.02886499994,367347.76475999993,366714.25229999993,323551.929577,325392.39627800003,323250.43129300006,324467.279634,318985.00305999996,321239.771709,326274.384916,290991.859508,274119.7693,281047.778453,287510.605981,272360.87053300004,278920.623773,276500.53756500006,265669.5494770001,256768.343794,248467.27756299998,234450.45792999998,235660.000817,233180.330562,237104.15231399998,263039.117221,275727.713337,275499.11960800004,278081.029608,279848.462496,281429.629969]},{"source":"manifold","id":"aJNfiOgnBj8XYDdyrsbb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-attempt-to-run-for-a-thi","title":"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?","description":"In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate,\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8\nBen Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right?\n\nI use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.\n\n\nResolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024\n\nResolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032.\n\n\n\nEdit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here. \n\nEdit: If no clear statement or quote from Trump is available, I do not consider that sufficient evidence for the market to resolve YES. \n\n\n\n[Edit May 6, 2025]:  For the record, I’m handing over the ownership of the market to @shankypanky, she has the final say on the market resolution and all clarifications on the market.\n\nPinning the voting page here on whether this market should have resolved Yes already.\nhttps://manifold.markets/Balasar/should-manifold-market-resolve-as-y?play=true","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F861ab7b87f88.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T04:35:02.552000Z","end_date":"2028-11-08T06:32:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":189510.96091842247,"volume_24hr":2595.08054703261,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":65.57648468017578,"normalized_volume":55.37543869018555,"liquidity":1540.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.387248,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?","top_outcome_probability":0.387248,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.166373,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2595.08054703261,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-trump-attempt-to-run-for-a-thi","chart_24h":[0.220875,0.220875,0.262904,0.47,0.47,0.387248,0.387248,0.387248,0.387248]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"255195","ticker":"iran-leadership-change-by","slug":"iran-leadership-change-by","title":"Iran leadership change by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-leader-ship-change-by-6HjLf457Nt35.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-leader-ship-change-by-6HjLf457Nt35.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-09T02:58:15.361000Z","end_date":"2027-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20751636.62004999,"volume_24hr":322766.665034,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":65.06254577636719,"normalized_volume":57.630496978759766,"liquidity":313216.51952,"open_interest":1309231.203763,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104126","slug":"mojtaba","label":"Mojtaba"},{"id":"104068","slug":"ayatollah","label":"ayatollah"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"104127","slug":"mojtaba-khamenei","label":"Mojtaba Khamenei"},{"id":"104217","slug":"khamenei-out","label":"Khamenei out"},{"id":"104218","slug":"mojtaba-out","label":"Mojtaba out"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.395,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":8599.60403,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by","chart_24h":[160914.608016,160656.06044600002,167336.300714,172723.39499000003,164640.495628,163327.722933,163056.74664100003,188991.226853,183088.352745,183056.120983,181643.506609,197611.34572,202139.30219000002,198686.55803800002,195183.11838800003,193117.83592600003,193329.03264600004,233126.97235600004,231735.442356,220972.932356,221942.932356,213353.748147,226549.60985300003,226920.081199,212981.340363,198931.42842699998,200270.530864,206235.526689,221629.36037399998,190305.987214,238703.060652,238749.106133,249848.84613299998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"712216","ticker":"what-will-trump-say-during-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-20260715212255806","slug":"what-will-trump-say-during-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-20260715212255806","title":"What will Trump say during WHCA Dinner?","description":"Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a White House Correspondents Dinner on July 24, 2026 (https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/). \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his White House Correspondents Dinner on July 24, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is explicitly about the \"White House Correspondents Dinner\" scheduled for July 24, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.\n\nIf this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other markets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video of the events.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-during-ballroom-dinner-on-october-15-YsDlQHZFfgGy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-during-ballroom-dinner-on-october-15-YsDlQHZFfgGy.jpg","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-17T02:40:21.994984Z","end_date":"2026-07-24T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-25T06:26:42Z","volume":259345.380384,"volume_24hr":235914.514864,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.46310424804688,"normalized_volume":31.56442642211914,"liquidity":0.0,"open_interest":67868.125677,"categories":["Politics","Culture","Mentions"],"tags":[{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"100343","slug":"mention-markets","label":"Mentions"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105622","slug":"trump-speech","label":"Trump Speech"},{"id":"105780","slug":"whca-dinner","label":"WHCA Dinner"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Biden 5+ times","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.755,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6490.501158,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T06:53:22.527388Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T06:53:22.527388Z","added_at":"2026-07-17T02:53:24.398373Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-20260715212255806","chart_24h":[12950.740978,13431.319513999999,13524.22049,14206.805953999998,15542.452349999998,16276.602723,17364.319719000003,17951.977338,25313.443018,25938.793031,29162.787878,31037.774304,34177.917437,37906.425075,40638.850349,62620.319595,75360.024661,98699.854179,111138.904635,139131.853169,157868.706722,216183.52279500003,224977.823237,228674.84279,235297.215354,234587.635614,235945.12236100002,235914.514864]},{"source":"predict","id":"10273","ticker":"10273","slug":"how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","title":"How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-29T22:24:45.988000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9227589.850000001,"volume_24hr":41850.97000000015,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.41939544677734,"normalized_volume":85.56900024414062,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics","Economy","Fed"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"0 (0 bps)","top_outcome_probability":0.8285,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.008500000000000063,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1269.2700000000186,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:41:28.233254Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:28:05.712471Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://predict.fun/market/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","chart_24h":[39618.70000000014,42009.99999999987,43512.19999999982,40855.99999999981,38148.70999999977,47623.80999999975,48775.91999999997,49978.039999999964,47016.790000000095,47145.840000000084,62828.71999999997,62843.76000000007,63696.590000000084,63770.970000000205,52398.480000000156,52251.01000000007,46266.70000000001,46581.18000000008,47511.6100000001,41850.97000000015]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"276527","ticker":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-16T18:44:59.488518Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7805202.96793897,"volume_24hr":293859.599459,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":63.9270133972168,"normalized_volume":51.098548889160156,"liquidity":475576.88215,"open_interest":1001365.912437,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102107","slug":"houthi","label":"houthi"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104136","slug":"traffic","label":"traffic"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"},{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104009","slug":"regional-spillover","label":"Regional Spillover"},{"id":"583","slug":"shipping","label":"shipping"},{"id":"749","slug":"red-sea","label":"red sea"},{"id":"104235","slug":"cape-of-good-hope","label":"cape of good hope"},{"id":"582","slug":"houthis","label":"Houthis"},{"id":"738","slug":"yemen","label":"Yemen"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.325,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-7111.600586,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","chart_24h":[291336.671724,289755.585319,285719.43876999995,290137.622017,297097.36248999997,279657.075096,280945.736172,280897.255451,283040.385764,279906.60030600004,278674.479263,276267.383417,274783.497347,276140.235754,304868.423434,309380.196415,311290.586415,298055.477302,301690.095575,278658.785162,263586.801805,229767.026726,200779.712707,184782.501957,179810.659475,176532.69734,167100.27191699998,168097.34191699998,167584.45191699997,158528.401387,136802.88674799996,142690.79439699996,224061.51173999996]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79987","ticker":"next-french-presidential-election","slug":"next-french-presidential-election","title":"Next French Presidential Election","description":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:09:35.811900Z","end_date":"2027-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":115978113.65112576,"volume_24hr":189649.84393900004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":62.224185943603516,"normalized_volume":70.03609466552734,"liquidity":11740025.96851,"open_interest":803269.608243,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100282","slug":"french-election","label":"French Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Marine Le Pen","top_outcome_probability":0.308,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009500000000000008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1363.1528660000095,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","chart_24h":[167342.337296,162569.316575,148853.981046,140381.810513,140403.475263,164765.949675,164894.352865,161075.489837,91195.72044700001,100268.41667,105848.152195,106618.376694,104593.12746900001,100801.569161,102579.48728100001,99660.30351400001,97759.40599000001,97908.323193,97794.62285300001,98425.980483,100231.613643,97325.63878400001,95952.71828500001,92018.67567400001,90949.886994,91116.60749400001,92964.37134700001,175629.99041300002,180844.518933,185904.28572300004,190328.71320600004,190383.51607100002,189944.55406700002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"660108","ticker":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-02T21:49:34.448693Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2149654.874821997,"volume_24hr":183240.89771099994,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.87826156616211,"normalized_volume":43.18250274658203,"liquidity":307651.747,"open_interest":1055467.323853,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.125,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1153.4660570000415,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:00.771571Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:00.771571Z","added_at":"2026-07-02T21:55:47.773743Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","chart_24h":[185067.10543499995,185069.26098499997,180480.75098499996,153028.93195599996,151288.62095399998,157810.85627699998,149682.709654,157608.530561,187693.216157,191950.102002,185688.75934800002,185234.916916,165670.908759,164077.698759,162365.435169,157311.998541,157069.96964300002,150261.91051100002,149296.99515300003,123831.73606099992,123849.8189869999,122161.45816699987,75745.65702999994,86629.26396899993,86943.79746099994,121227.34437199993,121097.48437199993,120853.22699799993,120812.77756099992,120640.93629499992,160925.33891299993,183558.75167699993,183625.78010499993]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"699735","ticker":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?","description":"On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n\nAnonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\nStatements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\nThird-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;\nSatirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and\nStatements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039-hE3ZTZ51JJy3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039-hE3ZTZ51JJy3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-13T18:04:23.246000Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":980527.3160430006,"volume_24hr":185756.31709000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.8206787109375,"normalized_volume":38.639610290527344,"liquidity":135072.6004,"open_interest":230259.096884,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"104573","slug":"blockade","label":"Blockade"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"583","slug":"shipping","label":"shipping"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.485,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-6245.579602000003,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:24.057568Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:24.057568Z","added_at":"2026-07-13T18:15:33.710160Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","chart_24h":[74442.498448,74396.636142,70481.884719,79509.034904,79361.18596500001,76659.178422,93502.534103,97616.26315599997,110152.69887199998,109644.44125199998,103422.022401,102846.01826399998,100030.03270499999,100114.881623,99929.102894,99507.83662399999,99636.99861699999,98341.086157,95832.711974,90309.73982100001,94635.24242400001,86246.755931,86503.71974300001,88137.76141100001,158494.71024400002,157955.498427,169698.274344,171813.99006600003,171118.14212300003,172207.912102,175061.854476,179848.399352,182592.842543]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9re3xe1soLUwdOEudDno","ticker":"9re3xe1soLUwdOEudDno","slug":"who-will-be-the-next-person-to-win","title":"Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?","description":"Resolves to whoever is next elected to the office, other than Nancy Pelosi, regardless if they are ever seated. Includes special elections. Expires before the next redisticting cycle; will be resolved N/A if no one wins the seat other than Pelosi by market close time.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/barak/vp7kbpancy.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-04T05:21:36.325000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1412376.657096063,"volume_24hr":2000.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.30504608154297,"normalized_volume":75.1937026977539,"liquidity":131000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["sf-politics","san-francisco","118th-congress","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Scott Wiener","top_outcome_probability":0.689417,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011717999999999895,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2000.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T07:51:59.989129Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T07:51:59.989129Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/barak/who-will-be-the-next-person-to-win","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"623233","ticker":"iran-announces-withdrawal-from-mou-negotiations-byptptpt-20260622191732319","slug":"iran-announces-withdrawal-from-mou-negotiations-byptptpt-20260622191732319","title":"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?","description":"On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\nA termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. \nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; \n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; \n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; \n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; \n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and \n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-announces-withdrawal-from-mou-negotiations-byptptpt-20260622191732319-SNgzVjYr8tgQ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-announces-withdrawal-from-mou-negotiations-byptptpt-20260622191732319-SNgzVjYr8tgQ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-22T19:39:45.497419Z","end_date":"2026-08-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8209339.529892002,"volume_24hr":169361.648118,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.93324661254883,"normalized_volume":51.48084259033203,"liquidity":201109.70691,"open_interest":641681.659003,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104513","slug":"agreement","label":"Agreement"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 15","top_outcome_probability":0.135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.06999999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7340.175627999999,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:51.091605Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:51.091605Z","added_at":"2026-06-22T19:54:24.523061Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-announces-withdrawal-from-mou-negotiations-byptptpt-20260622191732319","chart_24h":[111760.96569599998,118455.97246999998,122282.534873,118919.791659,115783.180746,121375.320746,120912.907881,121101.572855,123233.69756100001,124767.74221099999,124218.31043499998,123175.984862,126064.48696899999,97500.92146900001,117651.17769600001,116207.967696,110917.70269600001,110260.986013,105434.43901300001,105280.47901600001,107503.50731,101204.30010400001,97175.987657,99958.19765700001,105439.495513,105761.595711,107609.27571100001,108810.485711,112974.313991,109520.853986,145568.15022700003,155126.65022700003,167333.51338300007]},{"source":"manifold","id":"BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y","ticker":null,"slug":"will-republicans-win-the-senate-in-738388924521","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?","description":"Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.\n\nIf a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fk28kghBTxb.png?alt=media&token=5edacbb5-bb31-463a-b877-0d281bc544f4","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-08T18:07:28.467000Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":90139.27166957434,"volume_24hr":1941.9521393799373,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.83112335205078,"normalized_volume":48.810279846191406,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.561269,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?","top_outcome_probability":0.561269,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0027770000000000294,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1231.4648144001208,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-republicans-win-the-senate-in-738388924521","chart_24h":[0.558492,0.554429,0.554698,0.55366,0.558123,0.558126,0.560261,0.560261,0.560261,0.562397,0.562397,0.562397,0.562104,0.562104,0.555928,0.5604,0.560402,0.557304,0.561786,0.561788,0.557307,0.561501,0.561267,0.56127,0.561269]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31195","ticker":"putin-out-before-2027","slug":"putin-out-before-2027","title":"Putin out as President of Russia by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-06T22:30:10.584000Z","end_date":"2027-06-30T18:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18458354.703889,"volume_24hr":150693.93147300006,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.8453369140625,"normalized_volume":56.85818862915039,"liquidity":1283730.74019,"open_interest":8951441.901531002,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.155,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4918.799777,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[64533.66020700001,59105.857607,57272.05422500001,50550.911337,50572.731337,130155.49772900002,134922.84550500003,138844.78672200005,140670.14003600006,149397.24060900006,153022.25060900007,154922.01668000006,161172.50785600004,163153.19785600004,163080.73113500004,163129.39937200004,166050.52731500004,165950.29653300004,166207.02246300006,166315.52000000005,166892.33111000006,163959.90668500005,163792.39668500004,163927.27817400006,164628.60993700006,164666.66993700006,140107.31793800008,140294.75935600008,141300.43334600006,142377.35924400005,141015.06999800005,150329.36147300006,150224.70147300005]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"455867","ticker":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-11T13:14:49.964000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20421105.538354263,"volume_24hr":150200.69427900005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.83634948730469,"normalized_volume":57.54718780517578,"liquidity":620124.63054,"open_interest":3680547.80628,"categories":["Politics","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104130","slug":"ships","label":"ships"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"},{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0055,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-474778.4090270002,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","added_at":"2026-05-11T13:18:58.934604Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","chart_24h":[612768.736064,604267.1821680001,543842.3415960001,507886.7067379999,524782.768528,525476.8655339999,494840.76165,491132.10347300005,526490.3811410001,488991.878672,475223.94065100007,461301.25285499985,461902.7395209999,449983.21225099993,442258.01679699996,435884.52770999994,437003.9895759999,412288.7664729998,412374.3431389999,408688.9396039999,399218.2252169999,327859.9029959998,322776.2490519998,254759.91238499992,222351.35538499994,208473.49039199998,201646.89609699996,189986.14209700003,189148.83443800002,190032.55974600004,155928.12634600006,156575.04467900007,150090.24427900006]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"704543","ticker":"saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-byptptpt-20260714210903830","slug":"saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-byptptpt-20260714210903830","title":"Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n“Yemen” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Yemen. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Saudi Arabia and Yemen and credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strikes-yemen-before-august-8npJS-s8ATIM.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strikes-yemen-before-august-8npJS-s8ATIM.jpg","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-14T23:52:22.221597Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-25T03:32:40Z","volume":194514.42118200008,"volume_24hr":147643.36003599997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.671424865722656,"normalized_volume":30.12452507019043,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":51182.822794,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"738","slug":"yemen","label":"Yemen"},{"id":"582","slug":"houthis","label":"Houthis"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"308","slug":"saudi-arabia","label":"saudi arabia"},{"id":"104009","slug":"regional-spillover","label":"Regional Spillover"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 24","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.945,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":100475.32089199997,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T03:49:22.178415Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T03:49:22.178415Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T00:25:11.191052Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-byptptpt-20260714210903830","chart_24h":[8647.151634999997,8663.941342999997,8530.468426999998,12047.703103999998,11692.293103999998,11691.156745999997,11441.226616999997,10692.44833,11517.06833,11208.71833,10748.024998,9669.795358999998,9542.503187999999,14128.232807,31202.743007999998,67602.04537800001,79030.58156400002,87289.42281300003,91520.68973900002,92919.31861900001,115998.055908,123816.32865699996,131687.48099599997,147643.36003599997]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"158505","ticker":"clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","slug":"clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","title":"Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2025-nKCKPZK92UBU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2025-nKCKPZK92UBU.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-11T23:22:56.488713Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2658480.598597988,"volume_24hr":159164.038291,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.52263259887695,"normalized_volume":44.41953659057617,"liquidity":160802.5246,"open_interest":903443.342707,"categories":["Crypto","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"21","slug":"crypto","label":"Crypto"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"531","slug":"us-law","label":"us law"},{"id":"105292","slug":"crypto-legal","label":"Crypto Legal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.355,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.06,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":26986.353004999983,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:08.183178Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:08.183178Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","chart_24h":[117016.637567,116686.064491,115905.04182299998,110713.31189899998,111268.86510999996,111787.69253699997,161013.4537719999,164015.44358699993,170302.8471139999,173567.54539499988,176106.8141949999,178738.31000499992,185532.2288159999,181885.9210029999,183142.151542,183151.07953900003,167418.82259399997,155110.81187700003,154594.54482100005,151795.512985,144062.974344,157378.250637,152880.193317,150952.762886,151066.03249,149469.606292,147674.988894,143843.762728,144041.692304,147281.566692,145314.341811,145973.892878,145467.188453]},{"source":"predict","id":"15804","ticker":"15804","slug":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","description":"If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T20:35:47.945000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1014629.28,"volume_24hr":27148.339999999967,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.28630828857422,"normalized_volume":63.63241195678711,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics","Global"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.0595,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0049999999999999975,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":26667.01000000001,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:41:28.233254Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:28:05.712471Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://predict.fun/market/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","chart_24h":[481.3299999999581,481.3299999999581,481.3299999999581,481.3299999999581,0.0,10036.25,10036.25,10036.25,10036.25,10036.25,10036.25,10036.25,10036.25,17181.280000000028,17600.820000000065,17600.820000000065,17700.820000000065,17700.820000000065,25225.44000000006,27148.339999999967]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"715891","ticker":"us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096","slug":"us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096","title":"US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\nAnonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\nStatements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\nThird-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action;\nSatirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;\nAnnouncements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and\nStatements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-announce-an-iran-ceasefire-by-JBxUYsGvggYB.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-announce-an-iran-ceasefire-by-JBxUYsGvggYB.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-18T01:59:48.167091Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1151886.3777420009,"volume_24hr":128111.040964,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.91046142578125,"normalized_volume":39.54393768310547,"liquidity":158465.8683,"open_interest":146866.101219,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"102305","slug":"us-iran","label":"US-Iran"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.67,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.05500000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6310.238131999997,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:44.356513Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:44.356513Z","added_at":"2026-07-18T02:02:18.709755Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096","chart_24h":[169223.376324,168130.353383,166928.773125,166228.18951300002,163202.388497,163054.242182,167372.40665699996,143591.690425,147881.663466,124893.340269,106866.09018800002,104937.00548400001,102642.67516500001,95542.913553,94275.41821300001,93388.56177100001,93800.83437200001,94049.344372,93788.66658100001,89320.160495,89947.366519,85272.194653,87132.62764,86837.956256,105775.06508,110504.485442,117446.111005,124743.107117,124234.10549500001,125839.986415,125860.8417,125635.943693,123699.45942700001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"143443","ticker":"venezuela-leader-end-of-2026","slug":"venezuela-leader-end-of-2026","title":"Venezuela leader end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"officially holds\" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. \n\nIf the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).  \n\nIn the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan  government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. \n\nIf no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. \n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. \n\nNote: this market is mutually exclusive.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026-lOfqbUxiKAsg.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026-lOfqbUxiKAsg.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-04T18:21:09.391000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":94220561.32299797,"volume_24hr":134888.55780799928,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.1435661315918,"normalized_volume":68.47581481933594,"liquidity":1971377.96306,"open_interest":579693.371999,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103147","slug":"trump-machado","label":"Trump-Machado"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"},{"id":"246","slug":"venezuela","label":"Venezuela"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101669","slug":"maduro","label":"maduro"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Nicolás Maduro","top_outcome_probability":0.8225,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011499999999999955,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":86573.16530799975,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:06.107853Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:06.107853Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[38051.02029,37933.64329,37663.982320999996,37384.378787999995,37671.571348,45467.033271,45012.832399,55931.419884,52893.728600999995,52534.080183,52487.187183,52433.439583,46888.129216,43633.858550000004,42837.85275,41897.779067999996,42100.492068,42738.627132,42754.627682,44952.028207,42638.131189,42569.437939,42662.628705,42590.913705,41462.54571,41442.528708,41314.965308,40549.503058,40228.906732999996,43427.176695999995,97615.28393599989,116200.71518699973,114429.08632899975]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"723777","ticker":"iran-invades-kuwait-byptptpt-20260720015031544","slug":"iran-invades-kuwait-byptptpt-20260720015031544","title":"Iran invades Kuwait by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.\n\nMere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.\n\nOnly the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to \"No.\" No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.\nHybrid or \"grey zone\" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.\n\nSearch and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-invades-kuwait-byptptpt-20260720015031544-RRCIRMEIvRRQ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-invades-kuwait-byptptpt-20260720015031544-RRCIRMEIvRRQ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-20T02:36:31.140163Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":551786.5266950005,"volume_24hr":113709.60730700003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.07782745361328,"normalized_volume":35.500118255615234,"liquidity":140779.87344,"open_interest":166393.38323099999,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"102580","slug":"kuwait","label":"Kuwait"},{"id":"193","slug":"military","label":"military"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.0365,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0395,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":9379.021621000022,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:53:06.519125Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:53:06.519125Z","added_at":"2026-07-20T02:44:03.654146Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-invades-kuwait-byptptpt-20260720015031544","chart_24h":[105023.77635500001,105645.03992600001,105661.03975000001,131579.671982,171296.493207,171079.480227,172795.03506,172999.097646,143124.020101,135397.38448600002,134212.747449,134125.662974,138152.363665,137434.363665,135976.863665,135560.217303,134410.89857600004,134187.85857600003,109118.38369200002,109100.80798200001,110703.16281000002,110033.86166300002,116052.93049300002,118844.71654300002,120418.54733700001,115888.96012200002,115880.47781400003,115139.42161900002,115357.439001,115410.25056700001,114922.43262900002,114882.70529400003,113664.77144900002]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSAVEACT-27","ticker":"KXSAVEACT-27","slug":"KXSAVEACT-27","title":"Will the SAVE Act become law?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-07T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-04T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9578837.54,"volume_24hr":297192.59,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.64276123046875,"normalized_volume":57.74198532104492,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":3836520.45,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 4, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.064,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":178628.07,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:46:38.808722Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:46:38.808722Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsaveact/will-the-save-act-become-law/kxsaveact-27","chart_24h":[118564.52,110475.27,111971.68,110080.86,110226.96,267281.41,267940.74,264209.96,266332.15,267820.39,269809.04,273622.02,276747.42,274909.47,274787.9,277553.17,278795.77,277402.64,263024.2,266655.64,264175.64,289369.18,288474.41,288638.25,288221.84,280583.83,281355.81,288048.84,287359.26,288155.12,288284.58,297627.24,297682.98,297192.59]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tPLAFk3FPVm3xrBmldfh","ticker":"tPLAFk3FPVm3xrBmldfh","slug":"who-will-be-elected-president-in-20","title":"Who will be elected president in 2028?","description":"Getting in early","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-04-24T01:23:58.749000Z","end_date":"2028-11-03T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1701036.525189907,"volume_24hr":1357.6712516918212,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.21952438354492,"normalized_volume":77.18161010742188,"liquidity":11225.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","us-politics","2028-us-presidential-election-6tdsp26zly"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"J.D. Vance","top_outcome_probability":0.199248,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.012871000000000021,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":423.7105717907252,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:45:48.174471Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:45:48.174471Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20","chart_24h":[444.56310745672,441.56310745672,599.585716704178,681.585716704178,681.585716704178,727.5857166849961,1032.6158521704267,1032.6158521704267,1293.4902542955479,1461.4682868375016,1729.023951644187,1377.0468274913187,1362.6712516918212,1351.6712516918212,1344.6712516918212,1349.6712516918212,1357.6712516918212]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"455875","ticker":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-11T13:03:57.905316Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5919036.838006991,"volume_24hr":85375.918046,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.34880065917969,"normalized_volume":49.39082336425781,"liquidity":297456.0811,"open_interest":1485320.957255,"categories":["Politics","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104130","slug":"ships","label":"ships"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104131","slug":"transit","label":"transit"},{"id":"104139","slug":"hormuz","label":"Hormuz"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.515,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-82968.86464599997,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:37.864296Z","added_at":"2026-05-11T13:04:48.315040Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","chart_24h":[168719.62513899998,170444.26474199997,167500.39922999995,167592.70692099995,164545.50692099996,161829.75692099996,167819.58367199995,156991.60779299994,157198.13779299994,155896.54051099997,156979.88541399996,154932.67611499995,154983.71149799996,158100.20149799995,158107.37457299995,155893.79614299996,52068.20070499999,48515.96412399999,48089.71667999999,44413.680016,32722.605667000003,33878.25716,35228.207160000005,41055.63716,40955.63716,37251.78716,36828.378998,36827.396142,39027.938450999995,38424.64518700001,85732.36641000002,85955.127837,85759.76049300001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"45017","ticker":"michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner","slug":"michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner","title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner","description":"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.\n\nIf no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner-uPezQW2QcX0-.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner-uPezQW2QcX0-.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-15T19:40:30.405000Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1255716.3205160005,"volume_24hr":80974.326063,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.82275390625,"normalized_volume":40.057376861572266,"liquidity":333223.07256,"open_interest":302478.07283399993,"categories":["Elections","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"902","slug":"primary-elections","label":"primary elections"},{"id":"1550","slug":"senate-primary","label":"Senate Primary"},{"id":"936","slug":"democratic-primary","label":"Democratic Primary"},{"id":"1433","slug":"michigan-primary","label":"Michigan Primary"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105189","slug":"august-4-primaries","label":"August 4 Primaries"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"264","slug":"primaries","label":"Primaries"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Abdul El-Sayed","top_outcome_probability":0.645,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.15000000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":23696.266916000008,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner","chart_24h":[26149.77074,26122.249274,26149.369274,25572.509274,25850.851051,25850.851051,23384.473154,23169.673154,23112.453154000003,22773.588254000002,22817.614835,22764.414136,46083.929714,50189.434426,62736.229461999996,63349.119805,72288.71092499999,72678.653629,73511.470934,95913.80129599999,96206.19823999998,96496.306615,96671.85272099999,96780.191178,96944.006186,96984.971186,96983.696186,97122.626186,97073.986186,81407.355297,81572.176063,81141.556063,81161.546063]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"72347","ticker":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-03T23:52:00.295000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23087060.855305273,"volume_24hr":80309.538871,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.71172332763672,"normalized_volume":58.38932800292969,"liquidity":700004.1702,"open_interest":4323532.024684,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.095,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-44101.236183,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[107580.20505400002,111836.15141500001,113591.94686500003,113503.19686500003,112726.49280200004,143455.814619,143545.82561,138774.670645,133490.330645,133208.48064500003,102063.47610199999,103255.585196,103228.12035099999,103741.305807,102020.723493,101790.723493,100990.16238299999,100990.16238299999,93734.762383,93249.80693,87916.332386,87766.332386,88902.802386,88902.802386,78687.277946,78687.277946,78491.936836,53628.035928,53792.525928,52594.534111,82367.776142,80641.256142,80220.23887100001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"60692","ticker":"will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends","slug":"will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends","title":"Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nAn announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-mitch-mcconnell-before-july-izojPdwWuNWI.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-mitch-mcconnell-before-july-izojPdwWuNWI.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-17T21:26:50.709000Z","end_date":"2027-01-03T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":782701.1540229999,"volume_24hr":79068.22661,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.574214935302734,"normalized_volume":37.40601348876953,"liquidity":66782.7067,"open_interest":369622.7929,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"514","slug":"congress","label":"Congress"},{"id":"100199","slug":"senate-elections","label":"Senate"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.445,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-150570.82000000007,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends","chart_24h":[229639.04661000005,229639.04661000005,229644.04661000005,229444.04661000005,229644.04661000005,229453.94565600005,265235.00004400004,152880.87390199996,94133.80157499999,86736.609121,85651.51897699999,109017.60545399999,101498.76701299999,100748.85934499999,100802.133257,95307.47891299998,95090.08761,94435.44261000001,94418.07261,81200.502439,81259.469654,81243.779654,81352.475305,79472.440241,78965.29024100001,79457.29803900002,79463.370042,78864.247716,78507.607716,78524.17118500001,78930.321185,78920.19661,79068.22661]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"620025","ticker":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412","slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?","description":"On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.\n\nThis market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”\n\nUnless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.\n\nIf the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including:\n\n(i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument;\n(ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries;\n(iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or\n(iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument.\n\nA qualifying written diplomatic instrument must:\n\n(i) Be identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting;\n(ii) Establish at least one specific obligation limiting Iran's nuclear program through a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested, which may take the form of a defined limit, prohibition, or quantity (e.g., a specific cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, or an explicit commitment for Iran to surrender, destroy, or dilute its enriched uranium stockpile). Non-specific or vague restrictions, with no defined metric (e.g., a pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons, a commitment to maintain the status quo, or an agreement to abide IAEA monitoring or inspections requirements that do not specifically restrict Iran’s nuclear program) will not qualify.\n\nThe content of the qualifying instrument must be expressed as an agreed obligation to be implemented. The following do not qualify: \n\n(i) a provision the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument; \n(ii) a provision explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation; \n(iii) a floor, placeholder, or minimum standard established explicitly for the purpose of structuring ongoing or future talks. \n\nA definite and unconditional obligation may qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the exact implementation date, timeframe, or sequencing, remain subject to future arrangements, provided that the obligation still establishes a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested. Conditional obligations do not qualify.\n\nWhether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If such an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies.\n\nAn instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. \n\nOnce a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412-2M_GeQ8diXxj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412-2M_GeQ8diXxj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-21T21:41:12.182790Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10971152.138789998,"volume_24hr":80271.48848900001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.361572265625,"normalized_volume":53.37556457519531,"liquidity":1117578.5608,"open_interest":2528421.895573,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"102305","slug":"us-iran","label":"US-Iran"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.295,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-5320.989374999999,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:51.091605Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:51.091605Z","added_at":"2026-06-21T21:57:58.721637Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412","chart_24h":[48843.73659000001,49571.201371,49526.87981900001,48583.23914900001,49575.101521000004,49174.04383000001,51780.508181000005,50591.41682800001,54229.98872500001,55900.54025400001,53684.402505000005,53963.42250500001,53708.215087000004,53598.71298300001,48407.512983,35207.692983,35620.336663,36505.649548,36537.787478,37437.461779,36937.461779,35221.391473,50077.266507,50844.57091,51690.829819,51690.829819,51682.645912,50038.221874,49308.971624000005,87261.101196,78278.976223,77709.648677,77316.43367700001]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4065","ticker":"FRA2027","slug":"french-presidential-election-winner-2027","title":"French Presidential Election Winner 2027?","description":"Who will win the next French presidential election?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/France__1__9a978a9e-db51-4850-860a-e8e0de87eafa.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T16:57:51.831000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30711.0,"volume_24hr":2791.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.44003677368164,"normalized_volume":66.78502655029297,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["International"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Marine Le Pen","top_outcome_probability":0.33,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.02999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T23:45:23.017594Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T23:45:23.017594Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/FRA2027/french-presidential-election-winner-2027","chart_24h":[264.0,1850.0,2800.0,2791.0]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"435121","ticker":"who-will-trump-talk-to","slug":"who-will-trump-talk-to","title":"KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.\n\nA declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.\n\nThe claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-38HZ6qxWev1f.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-38HZ6qxWev1f.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-01T22:15:55.713355Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":267245.36046300014,"volume_24hr":69599.63999999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.369266510009766,"normalized_volume":31.71656608581543,"liquidity":18826.68174,"open_interest":6732.135733,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104009","slug":"regional-spillover","label":"Regional Spillover"},{"id":"101926","slug":"kurds","label":"Kurds"},{"id":"100756","slug":"iraq","label":"iraq"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104113","slug":"kurdistan","label":"Kurdistan"},{"id":"104112","slug":"kurdistan-regional-government","label":"Kurdistan Regional Government"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.077,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":68184.05082899999,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:35.536963Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:35.536963Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-talk-to","chart_24h":[1415.589171,52.397605,43.427605,43.427605,37.84,37.84,37.84,37.84,37.84,37.84,37.84,37.84,37.84,37.84,37.84,47.31,47.31,47.31,47.31,47.31,47.31,47.31,15277.29,46188.49,51298.48999999999,51298.48999999999,66244.48,67762.48,69627.48,69599.63999999998,69599.63999999998,69599.63999999998,69599.63999999998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"739241","ticker":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-july-27","slug":"elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-july-27","title":"Elon Musk # tweets July 25 - July 27, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 25 12:00 PM ET to July 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-22-29-apMPG21-pzx_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T16:07:16Z","end_date":"2026-07-27T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":102327.56603100001,"volume_24hr":67822.05593900001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.01268005371094,"normalized_volume":26.982318878173828,"liquidity":144008.58507,"open_interest":30136.861057,"categories":["Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"972","slug":"tweets-markets","label":"Tweet Markets"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"40-64","top_outcome_probability":0.365,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.09000000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":661.703481000005,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:54:14.267288Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:54:14.267288Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T16:52:07.362283Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-july-27","chart_24h":[34632.48183,35046.54031999999,35237.536372999995,35584.85326499999,35736.92286399999,35823.67535699999,36873.134689,41781.686518999995,45272.048061,45465.473701999996,53736.967298999996,54867.669473,59593.199031,61765.328162,62343.987537,58189.395409,58277.22431899999,54768.538195999994,52715.221885,50596.367847999994,52393.297452,55221.991283999996,60703.18792599999,59204.51386800001,63350.785302000004,63684.39636700001,62456.019551000005,61563.809892000005,62350.22154800001,64896.050995000005,66608.896269,66389.23798800001,67002.614606]},{"source":"gemini","id":"2639","ticker":"SAVEACT","slug":"will-the-save-act-become-law","title":"Will the SAVE Act become law?","description":"Will the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) become law before Jan 4, 2027? Outcome verified from the Library of Congress (Congress.gov).","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/1X12y7OhZNqwdNenVwemrA/81a6784737b185a4bd7be2276a69d5cf/Contract_Image.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-25T03:23:48.564000Z","end_date":"2027-01-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72684.0,"volume_24hr":2568.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.34550476074219,"normalized_volume":78.38591003417969,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Congressional"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"SAVE Act becomes law?","top_outcome_probability":0.08,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T07:53:00.115187Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T07:53:00.115187Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/SAVEACT/will-the-save-act-become-law","chart_24h":[4208.0,4026.0,3074.0,2824.0,2837.0,2847.0,2318.0,2568.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SyhgEZC68s","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-democrats-win-the-2026-tex","title":"Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?","description":"Resolves yes if Democrats win the Texas Senate Seat election in 2026.\n\nCurrent primary candidates include Crockett and Talarico on the Democratic side and Cornyn, Paxton and Bell on the Republican side.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-29T00:35:26.596000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":169437.73862048733,"volume_24hr":1043.1822553893303,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.26276397705078,"normalized_volume":54.35976791381836,"liquidity":1451.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default","2026-us-congressional-elections","texas"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.41091,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?","top_outcome_probability":0.41091,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.017484999999999973,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":982.1126878897196,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-the-democrats-win-the-2026-tex","chart_24h":[0.393425,0.393425,0.393425,0.393425,0.386928,0.387596,0.387596,0.394691,0.393573,0.411744,0.407798,0.407798,0.407798,0.407798,0.411073,0.411073,0.411073,0.411073,0.406919,0.406917,0.406755,0.406755,0.402597,0.41091,0.41091]}],"meta":{"page":1,"page_size":50,"total":2854,"total_pages":58},"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"http://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?categories=Politics","as_of":"2026-07-25T10:55:10.360240Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"}}