{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?categories=Science+and+Technology","as_of":"2026-10-24T04:13:42.915627Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"},"items":[{"source":"manifold","id":"CL56c9sqQp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-another-millennium-prize-probl","title":"Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if, between September 9, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a proposed solution for at least one of the remaining five Millennium Prize Problems is formally announced or published.\n\nThe five eligible problems for this market are:\n\nP versus NP\n\nThe Riemann Hypothesis\n\nYang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap\n\nThe Hodge Conjecture\n\nThe Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture\n\nFor the purposes of this market's resolution:\n\nNavier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness is excluded from resolving this market to YES. OpenAI announced a proposed solution to Navier–Stokes on September 8, 2026. This market specifically tracks whether another (i.e., a third) Millennium Prize Problem will have a solution claimed or published in 2026.\n\nPoincaré Conjecture is excluded as it was solved prior to 2026.\n\nThe proposed solution must be put forward by a recognized mathematician, a reputable academic institution, or a major AI/technology research organization (such as OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, etc.).\n\nThe announcement must be accompanied by a published paper, a public preprint (such as on arXiv), or a formalized computer-verified proof (such as in Lean or Coq).\n\nThe solution does not need to be officially verified or awarded by the Clay Mathematics Institute by the end of 2026 (as CMI rules require a two-year waiting period after publication). However, the solution must not be widely debunked or retracted by the mathematical community before December 31, 2026.\n\nIf no other eligible Millennium Prize Problem has a proposed solution announced by the end of 2026, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nBackground\n\nThe Millennium Prize Problems are seven mathematical puzzles selected by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000, each carrying a $1 million prize for a correct solution. For over two decades, the Poincaré Conjecture (solved by Grigori Perelman in 2002–2003) was the only solved problem.\n\nOn September 8, 2026, OpenAI published a paper claiming that an unreleased internal AI system had solved the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem by proving that the equations can develop a singularity in finite time. This market is designed to predict if the rapid acceleration of AI capabilities or human mathematical breakthroughs will result in yet another of the remaining five unsolved classic problems being solved before the end of 2026.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a proposed solution is neither widely debunked nor widely accepted (remains controversial) by December 31, 2026:\n\nThe creator will delay resolution for 2 to 3 months after the market closes.\n\nIf the proof remains controversial after this period, the creator is leaning toward resolving the market to NO or N/A (rather than YES), and will consult with moderators and mathematicians to make a final decision.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The controversy clause applies strictly to the mathematical validity of the proof itself (e.g., disputed proofs like the ABC conjecture), not to public relations or circumstances surrounding the announcement.\n\nAn announcement similar to the Navier-Stokes release will resolve to YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-08T22:46:34.870000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":627032.5668675068,"volume_24hr":28461.200045373185,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":65.5500717163086,"liquidity":5210.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.318226,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.318226,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014355000000000007,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":28174.430908665912,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-09-10T09:23:18.295652Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/HumanClanker/will-another-millennium-prize-probl","chart_24h":[0.332581,0.332581,0.332581,0.332581,0.42,0.415652,0.37,0.314873,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.329701,0.329701,0.328743,0.364058,0.356373,0.368547,0.353838,0.339919,0.334708,0.38,0.312238,0.374843,0.363787,0.352753,0.351221,0.345858,0.340567,0.320706,0.318226]},{"source":"manifold","id":"A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","title":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","description":"EG \"make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover\". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:47:22.898000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14486481.562628107,"volume_24hr":26042.616644926187,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":98.8823471069336,"normalized_volume":100.0,"liquidity":20916.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.461064,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","top_outcome_probability":0.461064,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.028936000000000017,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":23346.65631337826,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","chart_24h":[0.49,0.489808,0.489808,0.488744,0.478702,0.478702,0.478702,0.489221,0.49,0.483982,0.485302,0.485302,0.484755,0.484391,0.484391,0.475452,0.466486,0.467298,0.464774,0.471391,0.473363,0.473363,0.474703,0.474703,0.460109,0.460109,0.460109,0.460791,0.460791,0.461064,0.461064]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qLNSsQUZyN","ticker":null,"slug":"will-anthropics-ipo-s1-be-public-by-EspZI2PuCc","title":"Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if a Form S-1 or S-1/A for Anthropic’s proposed IPO is publicly accessible on SEC EDGAR by 23:59 ET on 31 October 2026. Publication of earlier confidential drafts (DRS) alone doesn’t count. Leaks and press reports don’t count. A filing that is later withdrawn  counts.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-12T16:48:20.304000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T21:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":32373.526834544773,"volume_24hr":5660.392801400771,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":71.42639923095703,"normalized_volume":39.67484664916992,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.633227,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.633227,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.12522100000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1899.4174089745247,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-10-13T15:07:38.715824Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-anthropics-ipo-s1-be-public-by-EspZI2PuCc","chart_24h":[0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.750948,0.750301,0.750301,0.750301,0.750301,0.750301,0.747067,0.747067,0.747067,0.751162,0.751162,0.74948,0.723087,0.690339,0.690339,0.628241,0.628241,0.633532,0.633532,0.633227]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lNP2uQ8gS6","ticker":"lNP2uQ8gS6","slug":"what-month-in-2026-will-anthropic-i","title":"What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?","description":"Resolves based on the month Anthropic ipos on a public stock exchange and shares have been sold.  Announcement of an ipo does not resolve this market, it must be completed.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-10T08:51:39.205000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":91636.85598104466,"volume_24hr":3382.9568969124794,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":63.172386169433594,"normalized_volume":48.02303695678711,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"tags":["technology-default","ai","openai","business"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.635058,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.10659200000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1526.1647841921513,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:38:19.020483Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T03:38:19.020483Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T23:45:45.217065Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/what-month-in-2026-will-anthropic-i","chart_24h":[2208.470788728346,2227.315772066917,2129.8722156510344,2119.061905048224,2068.67176707281,2071.0939050392753,2046.8556522730025,2760.692180849757,2733.1492885792363,2728.9356336758588,2730.27652505688,2738.334899569275,2763.4587517577543,4152.420456853914,2900.39659560033,2917.7519062916426,2947.6488022929566,2906.1407693959973,2920.1233090974174,3090.453477131552,3102.917268159156,3317.866426248336,3382.9568969124794]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1040303","ticker":"anthropic-announces-bankruptcy-by","slug":"anthropic-announces-bankruptcy-by","title":"Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-kuqe-I60SJVbXGoPg.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-kuqe-I60SJVbXGoPg.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T22:38:03Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2608832.501457,"volume_24hr":205908.00130800004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.87107849121094,"normalized_volume":49.57512664794922,"liquidity":677906.8758,"open_interest":1010462.639176,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"105300","slug":"corporate-financials","label":"Corporate Financials"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 3.25%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2029","top_outcome_probability":0.235,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.004999999999999977,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-8461.409259,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:48.354811Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:48.354811Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T22:56:08.625984Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-announces-bankruptcy-by","chart_24h":[36417.520115,36417.520115,36617.530114999994,36617.530114999994,229431.410115,229436.530115,230293.530115,230041.122288,230041.122288,230058.89340000003,230159.21557400003,230159.21557400003,230165.87557400003,230155.35557400002,230084.475574,227996.947771,227986.34283500002,224907.29283500003,224893.712835,227694.712835,206888.970857,206261.250857,197886.307047,197650.307047,197650.307047,200538.437047,203202.837047,203202.837047,202895.00130800004,202895.001308,202895.001308]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nhOLt6Ctuu","ticker":"nhOLt6Ctuu","slug":"october-2026-ai-model-releases","title":"October 2026 AI model releases","description":"This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during October 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership). \n\nSubvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for \"Gemini 3.1 Flash\"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for \"GPT5.5\"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.\n\nPlease ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions. \n\nAlso, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity. \n\n\nNotes:\n\nFor the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market. \n\nFaster throughput variants of an already released model do not count for this market. For example, GLM-5.3-Prime.\n\nFor Gemini model families specifically, 3.x subvariants count for the Gemini 4 options. So, a Gemini 3.9 Flash release counts for Gemini 4 Flash, etc. \n\nI've added Argon on the same tier as Pro since it seems like a name rebrand, though if it becomes clear that they are different, I will N/A the option and create two separate options.\n\n\nPrevious Months:\n\n@/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases-2I5QOgzd9Q \n\nUpdate 2026-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A Fable 5.2 release will count towards the Fable 5.5 option.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A GPT 6 Terra release will count towards the GPT-6.1 Terra option.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T20:09:43.059000Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36278.03462708254,"volume_24hr":3102.3933293044975,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.83399200439453,"normalized_volume":40.54964828491211,"liquidity":2700.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai-model-releases","ai","technology-default","ai-impacts"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Any Mistral Model","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:03:37.396291Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:03:37.396291Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T16:56:09.074713Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/prismatic/october-2026-ai-model-releases","chart_24h":[1380.09983954604,1494.1619006321469,1486.6519006321469,1518.7590854295502,1477.5810248369178,1465.3918442472318,1500.2308602527344,1480.6027881662703,1474.338788002138,1404.8070102987056,1395.872766734246,1405.1489815513748,1384.0338914305898,2468.5332654562944,2769.6900899748,2769.6900899748,2732.2803971700596,3027.1989656038477,3025.1360717525818,3044.7179820827246,2999.922877053358,2997.942482935319,3179.1058522463927,3289.0827724962114,3014.635081861492,3099.935868678708,3094.957804916581,3112.4069465359908,3119.0075945154213,3102.3933293044975]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CZp52czdQL","ticker":"CZp52czdQL","slug":"largest-company-end-of-2026","title":"Largest company end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31st 2026, as of market close. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be https://companiesmarketcap.com\n\nSee also\n@/Bayesian/largest-company-end-of-2025 ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-03T11:59:09.405000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":59044.50802390782,"volume_24hr":2781.2911493499114,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.16545486450195,"normalized_volume":44.39927291870117,"liquidity":1200.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology","Finance"],"tags":["business","technology-default","companies","big-tech","finance"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"NVIDIA","top_outcome_probability":0.599622,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.07906999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":837.3064040158497,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:03:37.396291Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:03:37.396291Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T08:24:23.480381Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/jim/largest-company-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[1233.0413547332223,1202.4419165159004,1177.7946127456757,1168.7455390671032,1137.2386842514038,1317.179267435418,2177.3461128581052,2185.2391542217306,2218.7232322873133,2218.7232322873133,2154.0093467104584,2188.805832261197,2277.3189525252433,2298.2682488820546,2329.220869742195,2277.2073393471837,2266.01764158458,2284.9567411508774,2353.661067163816,2430.8212525604404,3176.591310169349,3147.2956849835596,3137.6810378700907,3070.6162789039945,2781.2911493499114]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EU2P5AdyuE","ticker":null,"slug":"anthropic-above-10t-valuation-on-ju","title":"Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027","description":"(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/anthropic-above-40t-valuation-on-ju)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/anthropic-above-20t-valuation-on-ju)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-14T07:48:38.475000Z","end_date":"2027-06-14T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":159008.32473711963,"volume_24hr":2478.3544943623524,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.42917251586914,"normalized_volume":52.76759338378906,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["anthropic"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.082949,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.082949,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03119200000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2468.1685348718893,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-10-08T17:57:04.643858Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/anthropic-above-10t-valuation-on-ju","chart_24h":[0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.114141,0.070501,0.070501,0.070501,0.070501,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949,0.082949]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"90177","ticker":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-25T18:05:19.721000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":74665645.47104806,"volume_24hr":143007.4039,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.2392692565918,"normalized_volume":74.63946533203125,"liquidity":747675.71129,"open_interest":8678798.204705002,"categories":["Politics","Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"71","slug":"aliens","label":"Aliens"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.0475,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0049999999999999975,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":80035.982305,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:06.958897Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:06.958897Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","chart_24h":[59165.396425,57923.690425,57942.365172,54859.643565,54009.643565,54713.281661,60385.671661,61900.821661,61356.701661,61680.137043,88483.24977,89185.431588,71536.542054,82359.568383,86940.456071,90524.01329399999,90124.49050300001,83186.600503,87973.04050500001,88609.743757,93064.704097,92964.704097,90131.050764,114984.98076399999,137552.791812,135713.454445,136006.473843,135967.728433,141363.88685100002,141579.904603,142489.424603]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"841230","ticker":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","slug":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","title":"Which company has the best AI model end of October?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNote: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-13T00:02:19Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3379528.089719,"volume_24hr":129484.577795,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.26369094848633,"normalized_volume":51.32722091674805,"liquidity":1521855.24619,"open_interest":468126.4863689999,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"105580","slug":"ai-rankings","label":"AI Rankings"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"105531","slug":"opus","label":"Claude Opus"},{"id":"106269","slug":"gpt-releases","label":"GPT Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Google","top_outcome_probability":0.877,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.020499999999999963,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-11454.297167,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:42.245237Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:42.245237Z","added_at":"2026-08-13T00:34:11.132528Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","chart_24h":[120365.276249,120361.577112,145502.983211,186263.567362,188468.011363,175293.607457,175279.47281900002,175836.864892,179016.60239800002,178873.555233,178592.996712,185199.607632,167157.201877,171499.60155,171759.944495,164313.83742999999,160406.89549,162312.08473099998,154411.069927,157195.461147,158903.747836,158686.620071,156541.17635,160194.460957,159758.612891,159905.183794,160371.902164,160596.419334,158222.308725,157617.110713,129340.13176]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-large-language-models-beat-a","title":"Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-13T16:17:14.714000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T02:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2104235.358944852,"volume_24hr":1972.9177758766089,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.07024002075195,"normalized_volume":77.97984313964844,"liquidity":4425.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Sports"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.605268,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.605268,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014731999999999967,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2403.1027025481317,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:15:33.398417Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T03:15:33.398417Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a","chart_24h":[0.62,0.613093,0.614423,0.60756,0.60756,0.601036,0.603319,0.6,0.596335,0.59028,0.59028,0.605487,0.605541,0.605541,0.605268]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dnL9sR88ns","ticker":"dnL9sR88ns","slug":"will-anthropic-have-the-largest-ipo","title":"Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?","description":"Market capitalization based on the official closing price on the first trading day of the respective company (for SpaceX: $2.105T)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-18T17:06:44.282000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":68296.70954945467,"volume_24hr":1934.0116216311512,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.78166198730469,"normalized_volume":45.58366775512695,"liquidity":4000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["companies","anthropic","spacex","ai","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No [Anthropic < SpaceX]","top_outcome_probability":0.537692,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.020373000000000085,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":855.8914174935162,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T22:49:11.016369Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T22:49:11.016369Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T19:21:41.001801Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-anthropic-have-the-largest-ipo","chart_24h":[790.0193048252488,719.1945521368623,669.1945521368623,731.5223712867735,781.5223712867735,831.4606034714681,1006.4606034714681,1016.4606034714681,1786.4606034714682,1813.608159105846,2019.0550512367072,1915.2506698282905,1934.0116216311512]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sCOZtS0y5E","ticker":null,"slug":"anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","title":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","description":"Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030\n\n[tweet]Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).\n\nUpdate 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-20T02:37:28.142000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":498318.332371937,"volume_24hr":1848.7582714717448,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.13127136230469,"normalized_volume":63.312992095947266,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["iphone","apple","virtual-reality","apple-vision-pro","anthropic"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.423992,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.423992,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.006008000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1748.7582714717448,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","chart_24h":[0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992,0.423992]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"548858","ticker":"anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes","slug":"anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes","title":"Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap","description":"This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T21:07:04.528790Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2232355.618934,"volume_24hr":90720.50196299999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.85920333862305,"normalized_volume":48.53420639038086,"liquidity":200078.17051,"open_interest":108396.569651,"categories":["Finance","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"},{"id":"103151","slug":"rewards-200-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"$1.75–$2.0T","top_outcome_probability":0.275,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4011.1580350000004,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:35.749734Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:35.749734Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T21:21:44.379872Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes","chart_24h":[84370.654646,84370.654646,88247.333706,88247.333706,92745.04598800001,92448.88237200001,92550.476338,85782.38604,94535.26827,98160.28786600001,98900.711578,94875.882174,80725.826305,81726.179898,80631.74989800001,67532.877077,67833.18707700001,68622.62757,68693.62757,88728.211917,76745.519241,79234.40543,78327.247248,79219.313114,78965.993953,84748.869328,81187.912409,81409.246894,90527.079417,90447.229417,90537.465667]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1103960","ticker":"indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","slug":"indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","title":"Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies.\n\nEnactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment.\n\nExecutive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify.\n\nThe moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings.\n\nThis market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Indiana; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929-Cbje5a8Zy63I.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929-Cbje5a8Zy63I.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-29T15:56:31Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6332493.089733,"volume_24hr":86689.15232600001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.431148529052734,"normalized_volume":55.704933166503906,"liquidity":557130.7974,"open_interest":123991.010626,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"763","slug":"states","label":"states"},{"id":"104967","slug":"compute","label":"Compute"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 3.25%"},{"id":"100931","slug":"indiana","label":"Indiana"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105582","slug":"ai-regulation","label":"AI Regulation"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.295,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1014.3800000000001,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:14.724374Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:14.724374Z","added_at":"2026-09-29T19:00:28.632076Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","chart_24h":[146794.68566000002,146794.68566000002,146577.287986,146576.71798600003,146519.24798600003,10961.624652,7411.624652000001,7411.624651999999,7396.574652,7333.974652,7133.974652,7133.974652,7133.974652,7133.974652,7133.974652,7044.672326,7044.342326,7044.342326,7002.602326,7002.602326,2.602326,2.602326,2.602326,2.602326,84744.43982600002,86688.15232600001,86689.15232600001,86689.15232600001,86689.15232600001,86689.15232600001,86689.15232600001]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tg6sd2cOdP","ticker":"tg6sd2cOdP","slug":"what-ticker-will-anthropic-use","title":"What ticker will Anthropic use?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-10T20:49:19.856000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T21:18:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":31631.443104773956,"volume_24hr":1681.7866235376885,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.77836608886719,"normalized_volume":39.497867584228516,"liquidity":1550.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["anthropic","startups"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"ANT","top_outcome_probability":0.64809,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.45407200000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1385.4949975004097,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T00:49:39.725941Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T00:49:39.725941Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T01:58:32.797039Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/MichaelWheatley/what-ticker-will-anthropic-use","chart_24h":[230.0,695.3241110728619,1372.1451291107278,1545.4638034505176,1643.9607846841247,1675.173336229549,1681.7866235376885]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXALIENS-27","ticker":"KXALIENS-27","slug":"KXALIENS-27","title":"Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-05T06:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":37131539.73,"volume_24hr":249292.06,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.57617950439453,"normalized_volume":81.37628936767578,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":14370116.459999999,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 20, 2029","top_outcome_probability":0.23,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3635.3900000000003,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:01:32.455707Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:01:32.455707Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist/kxaliens-27","chart_24h":[79473.02,82454.91,82478.35,233203.9,235961.87,236118.13,236123.11000000002,236123.11000000002,236991.52000000002,238600.63,238751.57,238687.66999999998,238753.34999999998,245419.40999999997,246020.77,245754.68,249098.8,240883.91999999998,243474.9,244854.00999999998,244914.31999999998,226095.55,226438.58000000002,237082.89,257109.53,256397.05000000002,257335.39,256332.43,260993.87000000002,234143.76,245272.59,244593.36000000002,249302.43000000002,250959.88,250085.87000000002,250157.90000000002,249292.06]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"556382","ticker":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026","slug":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026","title":"Which company has best AI model end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-04T17:41:50.554402Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2950706.090307,"volume_24hr":60075.225333,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.038360595703125,"normalized_volume":50.40495300292969,"liquidity":1345543.87677,"open_interest":235654.468849,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"540","slug":"grok","label":"Grok"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"105580","slug":"ai-rankings","label":"AI Rankings"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"105531","slug":"opus","label":"Claude Opus"},{"id":"106269","slug":"gpt-releases","label":"GPT Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":0.495,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3444.295906000001,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:35.749734Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:35.749734Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T17:56:36.371824Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[123760.45334,123761.98541,137024.653979,135038.25142699998,134880.315273,134782.18638499998,135662.06749699998,135716.95517,136675.624898,136363.219293,136801.905457,136801.905457,139360.153123,74275.807917,71140.700319,56900.948483,49734.511062,47463.620715,47271.712965,49812.982641,49829.196449,51917.326015,51881.913946,70814.67546,70119.77214100001,70429.772141,69816.444481,69778.623481,69618.562481,69572.065147,74767.022435]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"956789","ticker":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-03T00:11:15Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":954961.481305,"volume_24hr":72728.360382,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.79355239868164,"normalized_volume":43.06010437011719,"liquidity":57795.76821,"open_interest":143915.46592899997,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"105578","slug":"fable","label":"Fable"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"},{"id":"104801","slug":"mythos","label":"Claude Mythos"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.9315,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0045000000000000595,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-3157.8417789999985,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:19.978311Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:19.978311Z","added_at":"2026-09-03T01:01:58.778018Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","chart_24h":[106398.93259899999,105166.26193200001,101507.776046,101000.541629,112541.879912,115726.44643,115540.05311499999,119756.977476,110043.671597,109645.10123300001,109095.582434,103437.608699,102269.19160600001,109600.49888999999,106952.941839,106187.94752,102505.639435,101588.403518,102243.66023,97204.879402,93851.698015,90628.64494700001,95144.075004,93234.29789,100773.023652,97233.55883800001,97383.993545,95232.22894300001,87034.275477,76600.100647,75434.399986]},{"source":"manifold","id":"zg7xJ5ZkJJ4wJPJDPjWO","ticker":null,"slug":"by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","title":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","description":"Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By \"visible break\", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon. \n\nUpdate 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:\n\nA direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:31:04.244000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":704568.7550616228,"volume_24hr":1406.4106538862675,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.26954650878906,"normalized_volume":66.70008850097656,"liquidity":5210.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","acx","economics-default","scott-alexanders-5-year-predictions","global-macro"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.290194,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","top_outcome_probability":0.290194,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.00019400000000002748,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-4137.9742640322165,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","chart_24h":[0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.294563,0.294563,0.3,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1114519","ticker":"largest-company-end-of-october-2026","slug":"largest-company-end-of-october-2026","title":"Largest Company end of October 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T16:14:15Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":796996.3513079999,"volume_24hr":60630.80817300001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.123416900634766,"normalized_volume":41.9364013671875,"liquidity":400174.39517,"open_interest":144473.50917299997,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy","Finance","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"NVIDIA","top_outcome_probability":0.56,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.1279999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":16010.093926999993,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:30.346981Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:30.346981Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T16:34:41.942523Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-october-2026","chart_24h":[58166.420401999996,58188.002825999996,59233.222912,71346.908689,68463.395615,63920.279631,64005.793372,62212.343456999995,62366.950948,62452.203577,67378.380592,69060.502682,69500.357944,71035.59418799999,72611.09449399999,69855.026231,66122.070962,53608.67174399999,53844.790827000004,58097.610246,52629.132719,53288.79599399999,55888.698016,55699.802062,55304.521931,55508.773296,55348.700005000006,55514.643944,57095.13159599999,59466.726607,59447.183417]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79041","ticker":"largest-company-end-of-december-2026","slug":"largest-company-end-of-december-2026","title":"Largest Company end of December 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-12T21:16:56.414786Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8903703.516595,"volume_24hr":56009.679634,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.41495895385742,"normalized_volume":58.15548324584961,"liquidity":1229868.01768,"open_interest":556948.294828,"categories":["Economy","Business","Finance","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"NVIDIA","top_outcome_probability":0.59,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-12596.507752999996,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-december-2026","chart_24h":[101539.258886,101648.538117,102826.754783,78133.883391,78357.110215,77447.456039,75255.271188,74998.08001500001,73696.368682,73837.43253,75260.56690399999,75201.819021,75404.599802,85390.421222,91884.048268,89907.278305,87796.51495499999,87646.897136,79981.541723,72258.724743,69222.582921,69239.493772,65530.697611,66198.735611,66222.083415,65405.236743,66092.19944,70879.82677100001,70485.78082,68838.151775,69828.315575]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5WEpXLx31YdM11zOdo4h","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace","title":"Will we get AGI before 2027?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027\n\nMOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)\n\nThis market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI?‌ as its baseline. If that resolves NO for this market's year (and every year earlier), this also resolves NO. If it resolves YES, we dig into the nitty gritty.\n\nPlease see THIS COMMENT from the 2026 market for more guidance about what a YES resolution might look like.\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2027:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-14d109820be6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FZMl4Ifi_0g.png?alt=media&token=6b33be16-2892-4120-9957-248da43a603e","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-09T16:12:54.798000Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":302042.58018673584,"volume_24hr":1218.813117311407,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.30519104003906,"normalized_volume":58.57268524169922,"liquidity":1085.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.035011,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.035011,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.008397000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1189.6591118232996,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace","chart_24h":[0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.026614,0.034267,0.034267,0.034267,0.034267,0.035445,0.035445,0.035445,0.035445,0.035445,0.035445,0.035011,0.035011,0.035011,0.035011,0.035011]},{"source":"predict","id":"431491","ticker":"431491","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-february-20-R6s0bPnaJ6Y-.png","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-15T13:05:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36495.119999999995,"volume_24hr":19394.97,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.22941589355469,"normalized_volume":36.55640411376953,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["Tech","AI"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.935,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":19161.32,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:29.012277Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:29.012277Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:11:53.911078Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","chart_24h":[17.30999999999858,17.30999999999858,17.30999999999858,17.3199999999988,15.209999999999127,19108.95,19108.95,19119.46,19361.059999999998,19409.059999999998,19409.059999999998,19409.059999999998,19409.059999999998,19409.059999999998,19409.059999999998,19409.059999999998,19410.129999999997,19394.97]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"841209","ticker":"best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-october","slug":"best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-october","title":"Best Chinese AI Company end of October?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNote: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.\n\nQualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T23:55:02Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":305763.48225,"volume_24hr":45660.974046999996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.57583999633789,"normalized_volume":36.23104476928711,"liquidity":70329.6778,"open_interest":40098.702844,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"104431","slug":"moonshot","label":"Moonshot"},{"id":"105580","slug":"ai-rankings","label":"AI Rankings"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Xiaomi","top_outcome_probability":0.5985,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.09249999999999992,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7362.004549000001,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:42.245237Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:42.245237Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T23:56:38.531404Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-october","chart_24h":[11377.197751,11377.197751000002,19171.971966999998,18502.524212,18382.466905,18804.579549000002,18588.717771,17767.703217,17762.703217,18268.989658000002,18763.59624,18885.776814,18813.78135,19139.446964,25175.71396,26337.771626,30256.285532,31740.439119,32598.425293,38419.693319,39180.687380999996,39214.948635,39102.895778,39500.425489,38480.633769,38111.633769,40393.278481,40532.078481000004,40337.658481,44503.304835,44202.989227]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1121372","ticker":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-onptptpt-20261002","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-onptptpt-20261002","title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?","description":"This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T22:15:29Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":319398.55167300004,"volume_24hr":43849.461644,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.21751022338867,"normalized_volume":36.48247528076172,"liquidity":67992.36013,"open_interest":28005.38392300001,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"105578","slug":"fable","label":"Fable"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"},{"id":"104801","slug":"mythos","label":"Claude Mythos"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No release by October 31","top_outcome_probability":0.7515,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.14549999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6320.259153000001,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:30.346981Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:30.346981Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T22:37:23.488278Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-onptptpt-20261002","chart_24h":[28100.545911,28026.545911,26979.991676,27304.106507,27933.922723,29858.796783,29536.486056,30295.857175,28725.559264000003,30615.736754999998,29576.675246000003,25965.034078,25723.388179999998,27285.038223,26959.459541,26896.87098,29531.408944,30054.894248,36547.254289000004,38561.027793,37945.108105,38319.657086,38547.885998,38375.618812,43316.894338,42482.504052,42573.527365,46461.376342999996,43281.101035,43939.529469,45142.042087999995]},{"source":"manifold","id":"pcEc5O9CPc","ticker":null,"slug":"does-claude-opus-55-make-egregious","title":"Does Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors?","description":"Third time's the charm?\n\nScott Alexander has a market resolving in 2028 about whether Gary Marcus will be able to find \"three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.\" (Weird adversarial hacks don't count.)\n\nA year and a half ago, I thought maybe ChatGPT o3 was smart enough that it was there already. It was not. A few months later, I thought GPT-5-Thinking might've gotten there. Still not. So now it's been more than another year and maybe Claude Opus 5.5 is there?\n\nTo resolve YES, that it still makes egregious errors, we need, by market close [UPDATE: By the deadline listed below], just one example I can replicate [in a Temporary Chat] (no access to my chat history) with effort set to max. We won't worry about \"average teenagers\". If the answer is clear to us and Claude gets it wrong at least half the time, this market resolves YES.\n\nAs always, ask clarifying questions before betting too hard. We'll discuss in the comments and aim for the spirit of the question, namely, thinking of this as a capabilities milestone and seeing how correct Gary Marcus was in his LLM skepticism. We'll generally but not necessarily follow precedents from the previous two incarnations of this market for o3 and GPT-5.\n\nFAQ\n\n1. Are images allowed this time?\n\nYes, with one concession for how much harder that is for an LLM. Normally it's not allowed to nudge the AI, but for visual questions we'll add \"write code as needed to verify your answer\".\n\n2. What if it can't do that in a Temporary Chat?\n\nThen we'll test another way. I've got Claude building an elaborate harness but anyone with a Claude Max plan should be able to replicate any question failure in a normal Claude session if they have no conversation history about that specific question and Claude doesn't otherwise cheat.\n\n3. What if \"write code as needed\" makes it perform worse?\n\nWe'll take the best of both. Reasoning: First, that may help make up for the advantage that YES bettors got from extending the deadline on this market. Also it feels within the spirit of the question -- what AI is capable of. Finally, we weren't even sure at first that images should be allowed (they weren't in past versions of this market) so giving the AI any advantages we can on the image questions feels closer to a good compromise.\n\n4. What's the deadline?\n\nProbably midnight pacific, the night of October 20, 2026. To be finalized in discussion in the comments. Trading can stay open until we've finished testing and discussing but submissions after the deadline don't count. Per the spirit of the question we don't want to exclude real examples just because they came in late but originally we did say \"by market close\" and extended that a couple times by some number of days so we need to pick a hard cutoff and stick to it.\n\n5. What does \"clear to us (humans)\" mean?\n\nThis is part of the definition of \"egregious failure\". We want a question that doesn't get a WTF reaction from humans or otherwise make our heads hurt trying to parse it. Roughly, the question should be phrased as clearly (for humans) as we're able to, and Claude's failure should be robust to minor rephrasings that we humans agree are all clearly the same underlying question.\n\n[Ignore any autoclarifications that appear below this line.]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T07:07:55.561000Z","end_date":"2026-10-25T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":49446.700840275334,"volume_24hr":1108.8915945188462,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.0298957824707,"normalized_volume":42.97700881958008,"liquidity":1050.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.62,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Does Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors?","top_outcome_probability":0.62,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.032694,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2175.8303011916732,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T06:48:11.350578Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/dreev/does-claude-opus-55-make-egregious","chart_24h":[0.652694,0.67,0.734947,0.734947,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.738755,0.738755,0.659996,0.660829,0.688149,0.688149,0.688149,0.688149,0.688149,0.725172,0.725172,0.62,0.62,0.727949,0.727949,0.727949,0.71,0.734884,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXLLM1-26DEC31","ticker":"KXLLM1-26DEC31","slug":"KXLLM1-26DEC31","title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-01T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15306025.469999999,"volume_24hr":102904.32,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.355384826660156,"normalized_volume":73.31156921386719,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":8086285.46,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Claude","top_outcome_probability":0.501,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":10657.4,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:01:38.800726Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:01:38.800726Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026/kxllm1-26dec31","chart_24h":[49647.18,50277.19,51544.28,51481.74,51794.659999999996,52775.14,52816.04,53026.23,52993.81,53048.65,52829.11,52810.07,52707.380000000005,52615.090000000004,53459.83,41844.97,46971.04,47202.91,44704.63,42909.97,60666.340000000004,60755.6,86768.7,88490.93,90134.2,94131.01,94584.31999999999,97240.78,98804.61,108015.43,108312.83,102907.17,103542.53,102049.08,102044.89,103998.16,102904.32]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ddAhRRLnRO","ticker":"ddAhRRLnRO","slug":"how-many-starship-launches-will-occ","title":"How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?","description":"Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)\n\nMust be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts\n\nAnswers will resolve as they are fulfilled\n\nI may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable\n\nUTC is used for determining 2026 start/end","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-02T01:13:13.514000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":196080.81209567664,"volume_24hr":933.4820984104279,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.750640869140625,"normalized_volume":54.63040542602539,"liquidity":13000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e","spacex","starship-launch-party","rockets"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"3 or more","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T00:27:10.664430Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T00:27:10.664430Z","added_at":"2026-07-02T01:21:26.424737Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Nat/how-many-starship-launches-will-occ","chart_24h":[1106.3481826032282,888.5775504054088,933.4820984104279]},{"source":"manifold","id":"l9lRst5288","ticker":"l9lRst5288","slug":"claude-fable-52-anthropic-release-d","title":"Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date","description":"The '+' means any version at or above 5.2 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.2 and releases Claude Fable 5.3 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.2, will also count.\n\nThe model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.\n\nSee also:\n\n@8AyI5Np5yl \n\n@OchSUnInIq \n\n@cgl2IP0yIC \n\n@LU5RqqqEuA \n\n@2OzL6Q56y8 \n\n@IZO2UZgUNO \n\n@2CqdhIO9cU \n\n@AnL9Aqgzc5 \n\n@N0qR0nZl8O \n\n@AzzEpzA8ys \n\n@ntStglnQz0 \n\n@SCnZAUUzEP \n\n@y5CU6hUn6s \n\n@qyC5ychznC \n\n@RlI6hyuNpU \n\n@2Rh2t5hALp \n\n@NONz6Ntycp \n\n@l9lRst5288 (this market)\n\n@ORA9UAlgdI \n\n@pNElq2SnCU \n\n@QL5hAdgQld \n\n@c5QycNqzUU \n\n@zNZZtUPO8d ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-05T16:27:35.969000Z","end_date":"2027-02-16T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22789.082453271938,"volume_24hr":882.7630646734382,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.023433685302734,"normalized_volume":37.03793716430664,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","anthropic","claude","ai-model-releases","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2027-02-16","top_outcome_probability":0.979564,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:52.540612Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:52.540612Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T18:32:51.482662Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/claude-fable-52-anthropic-release-d","chart_24h":[3649.365758658704,3652.30945409922,3665.806222696503,3701.440441897061,3698.287445497291,3703.610564074669,3687.81469973796,3686.1027806961024,3677.1685371316426,3663.0477550729156,3643.3614072305095,3676.2423957250658,3731.579512227744,3653.8563730816304,3653.8563730816304,3665.2953692617343,3642.4566569500153,3642.4566569500153,3685.2842310507076,3688.8453854436807,3714.7900128999836,4110.810576062991,4113.9061438682675,1948.7195336100654,1231.421979051199,887.9227345495507,890.1036560499314,887.7236215339964,882.7630646734382]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OyqnAAIsIn","ticker":"OyqnAAIsIn","slug":"what-will-openai-anthropic-xais-com-t2zygIOdIZ","title":"What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?","description":"This market matches Sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI revenues from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.\n\nSee the other manifold questions here\n\n[image]Resolution criteria\n\nResolves to the best estimate of the sum of December 2026 annualized revenues (monthly revenue × 12) of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. The resolver will primarily rely on publicly reported figures from reliable news sources (e.g., The New York Times, Reuters, The Information, Bloomberg), official company statements, or direct announcements from company CEOs.\n\nIf the most recent reports are from earlier in 2026, the resolver may extrapolate or use projections to estimate December revenue. If there are conflicting reports, the resolver will use their best judgment to determine which is more reliable.\n\nEli Lifland is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions.\n\nBuckets are left-inclusive: e.g., $50-60B includes $50.0B but not $60.0B.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-18T04:47:27.456000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":233514.1085193012,"volume_24hr":843.2513716805919,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.43182373046875,"normalized_volume":56.208106994628906,"liquidity":30000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","technology-default","2026-ai-forecasting-survey-by-ai-di"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.122632,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.023016999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":528.1569614720211,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T17:43:33.229401Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T17:43:33.229401Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-openai-anthropic-xais-com-t2zygIOdIZ","chart_24h":[363.6430125727235,863.6430125727235,843.2513716805919]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1111228","ticker":"next-claude-haiku-model-4pt6-text-arena-debut-20260930","slug":"next-claude-haiku-model-4pt6-text-arena-debut-20260930","title":"Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Haiku\" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include \"Haiku\" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nA model marked \"AutoEval\" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the \"AutoEval\" label will be considered.\n\nIf multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-10-01T00:11:50Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-23T18:01:15Z","volume":150884.13788899998,"volume_24hr":24885.178186999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.34525680541992,"normalized_volume":32.29291534423828,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":47123.627204000004,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"104752","slug":"debut","label":"Debut"},{"id":"105532","slug":"haiku","label":"Haiku"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1400+","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.015499999999999958,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":429.64306300000044,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:27:47.923795Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T03:27:47.923795Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T00:28:05.412018Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-haiku-model-4pt6-text-arena-debut-20260930","chart_24h":[20012.686363,20012.686363,20336.532363,21794.029146,32465.539146,34042.479146,34051.019146,35359.489146,35459.48914599999,35507.269146,35534.327969,35534.327969,35585.487968999994,35626.417968999995,35641.967969,35724.437969,35882.057968999994,42142.073373,42232.153373,43315.551879,43315.551879,42690.131879,42683.475416999994,42683.475417,42683.475416999994,42683.475417,25179.62041,24999.03041,24987.40041,24885.178186999998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"994461","ticker":"openai-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by","slug":"openai-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by","title":"OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-in-2025-xKDwO2QRBchw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-in-2025-xKDwO2QRBchw.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T16:00:14Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":959330.6353359999,"volume_24hr":23610.353215000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.90642547607422,"normalized_volume":43.088661193847656,"liquidity":62219.9995,"open_interest":159122.286246,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"102251","slug":"math","label":"Math"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"106204","slug":"cmi","label":"CMI"},{"id":"106092","slug":"astra","label":"Astra"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.595,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.07999999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6857.310325000002,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:35.687508Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:35.687508Z","added_at":"2026-09-09T16:07:49.002136Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by","chart_24h":[12145.423532,12145.423532,13127.843532,13127.843532,12897.843532,8997.843532,8997.843532,8997.843532,8997.843532,24068.366357000003,22700.621062000002,17908.891062000002,17915.224393,17615.224393,17686.871452000003,17828.871452000003,18380.561452,18380.561452,18380.561452,18285.561452,18285.561452,18292.561452,18292.561452,18292.561452,18138.773215,18222.773215,18222.773215,18222.773215,18428.793215,17954.793215,23508.593215]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hISQySnLnu","ticker":null,"slug":"acx-2026-will-the-sp-500-close-abov","title":"[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?","description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41130)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if the value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 7,500 at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T23:05:56.119000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57425.670649889966,"volume_24hr":716.5969414110812,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.3618049621582,"normalized_volume":44.17485427856445,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technology-default","acx-2026-prediction-contest","stocks","business","economics-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.704082,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.704082,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0012429999999999941,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1029.5684970127368,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T07:37:06.386599Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-sp-500-close-abov","chart_24h":[0.702839,0.702839,0.703114,0.704765,0.704765,0.705046,0.705187,0.705187,0.705187,0.705187,0.705187,0.705187,0.705187,0.705187,0.705187,0.680703,0.684191,0.685013,0.685979,0.687079,0.687352,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.704082,0.704082,0.704082,0.704082]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"200252","ticker":"openai-ipo-closing-market-cap","slug":"openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-554","title":"OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap","description":"This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-06T23:10:57.249645Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":566491.6198,"volume_24hr":20057.107651,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.559913635253906,"normalized_volume":39.85591506958008,"liquidity":171323.45573,"open_interest":42575.270515,"categories":["Finance","Business","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"105048","slug":"openai-ipo","label":"OpenAI IPO"},{"id":"104182","slug":"rewards-100-4pt5-100","label":"rewards 100, 4.5, 100 Deprec"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1.5T+","top_outcome_probability":0.3735,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.05399999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5951.420924999999,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:22.848841Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:22.848841Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-554","chart_24h":[9874.191300999999,9874.191300999999,9874.191300999999,9874.191300999999,9874.191300999999,9874.191300999999,9874.191300999999,12071.033118999998,12071.033118999998,12071.033118999998,12071.033118999998,12071.033118999998,28846.572206999997,28829.772206999998,28774.142207,28780.142207,24999.919069,24999.889069,24702.457632,24702.457632,24886.357632,24886.357632,24288.787632,21914.917632,21776.917632,20217.766407,20217.766407,20167.766407,20167.766407,20057.107651,20057.107651]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"850712","ticker":"next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt","slug":"next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt","title":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Terra\" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Terra\" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T21:36:36Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":89703.66080700001,"volume_24hr":18953.264892,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.34339904785156,"normalized_volume":29.531381607055664,"liquidity":11515.40444,"open_interest":18371.021328,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"473","slug":"gpt","label":"gpt"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"106100","slug":"gpt-terra","label":"GPT Terra"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"106269","slug":"gpt-releases","label":"GPT Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 30","top_outcome_probability":0.8325,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04149999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1351.7148889999999,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:45.140798Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:45.140798Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T21:38:36.204101Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt","chart_24h":[18282.195157,18290.406541,18866.585409,18866.585409,22328.259239,22702.557961,22702.557961,22344.802378,22519.385465,22625.819581,22132.009581,21981.374862,22207.194862,23835.999405,23841.908680999997,24301.365047,24538.355047,23842.355123999998,23415.937887,23308.226333,21804.865918,20962.882164,20384.72258,21808.990358,18687.705754,17885.367976999998,16726.315485,16627.526038,17433.781681,18093.367528,19319.219243]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"549095","ticker":"what-will-anthropics-public-ticker-be","slug":"what-will-anthropics-public-ticker-be","title":"What will Anthropic's public ticker be?","description":"An official announcement from Anthropic that it will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market. \n\nIf a ticker used by Anthropic in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if Anthropic uses a ticker symbol of $ANTH.A or $ANTHA, this market will resolve to $ANTH). \n\nIf Anthropic announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $ANTH.A and $ANTH.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until Anthropic's first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order. \n\nIf Anthropic IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other.\" \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. \n\nNote: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T21:12:00.482230Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":150808.185895,"volume_24hr":19068.942517,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.197853088378906,"normalized_volume":32.290184020996094,"liquidity":18012.85847,"open_interest":23304.829357999995,"categories":["Finance","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"105184","slug":"dario","label":"Dario"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"$ANT","top_outcome_probability":0.5875,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.375,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":15425.044618,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:35.749734Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:35.749734Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T21:21:46.746191Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-anthropics-public-ticker-be","chart_24h":[7841.380485,7986.380485,8022.119518,8064.146849,8067.121586,8938.941586,8894.626281,7996.751018999999,7986.751018999999,7993.719523,8097.052857,8571.637369,8726.218547,8819.308234999999,8870.288235,11490.521891999999,14718.805105,16305.179361,17584.693567,17877.767251,18347.837251,18910.837251,19002.199649,19144.706153,19144.706153,19144.706153,19144.706153,18783.473373999997,18889.57205,18910.772614999998,19467.876088999998]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dtUG8FldnqFJA2QF7f5Y","ticker":null,"slug":"will-llm-hallucinations-be-a-fixed-0f4541372303","title":"Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?","description":"https://fortune.com/2023/08/01/can-ai-chatgpt-hallucinations-be-fixed-experts-doubt-altman-openai/\n\n[link preview]“This isn’t fixable,” said Emily Bender, a linguistics professor and director of the University of Washington’s Computational Linguistics Laboratory. “It’s inherent in the mismatch between the technology and the proposed use cases.”\n\nHow true will this end up being? At the end of 2028 I will evalaute whether the hallucination problem for LLMs has been fixed or still exists. If hallucinations have been solved this market resolves YES. If the outstanding hallucination problem still exists, this market will resolve NO. \n\nThis is a followup market to this related market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-llm-hallucinations-be-a-fixed?r=U25lYWt5U2x5)\n\nUpdate 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The evaluation will focus on the full AI product available to users (e.g., a future version of ChatGPT like GPT-6), rather than just the raw underlying Large Language Model (LLM) in isolation. This means that systems which integrate the LLM with auxiliary components such as:\n\nWeb search\n\nKnowledge bases\n\nCitation mechanisms to reduce or eliminate hallucinations will be considered when determining if the problem is 'fixed'.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-15T20:07:33.470000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":92254.28234947972,"volume_24hr":646.2668685649082,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.07438278198242,"normalized_volume":48.07950210571289,"liquidity":3870.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technical-ai-timelines","ai","technology-default","science-default","-llm-ai-capabilities"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.3482,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.3482,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.003232999999999986,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-llm-hallucinations-be-a-fixed-0f4541372303","chart_24h":[0.344967,0.344967,0.344967,0.3482,0.3482,0.3482,0.3482,0.3482]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tplhuRgdCS","ticker":null,"slug":"gpt61-astra-released-in-october","title":"GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?","description":"Update 2026-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * This market will resolve based on the same rules as Polymarket.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T01:44:26.040000Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":149238.3237144925,"volume_24hr":644.254706153046,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.03583908081055,"normalized_volume":52.21030807495117,"liquidity":1500.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.13,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?","top_outcome_probability":0.13,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.021587999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-90.35095128316539,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-10-04T14:04:05.372761Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/gpt61-astra-released-in-october","chart_24h":[0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.151588,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1237266","ticker":"gpt-astra-6pt1-hle-diamond-debut-20261020","slug":"gpt-astra-6pt1-hle-diamond-debut-20261020","title":"GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes \"Astra\" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.\n\nThe percentage displayed as \"HLE-Diamond Accuracy\" for the model in its result card on the \"AI Progress on HLE-Diamond\" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf the Center for AI Safety (CAIS), which maintains the official Humanity's Last Exam results, publishes a qualifying score (defined below) for the model, and the model has not been displayed on the chart by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day (ET) after the first such publication, that score will be used instead, rounded to one decimal place. If multiple qualifying scores for the model have been published by that time, the highest will be used.\n\nA qualifying score is one issued under CAIS's name (for example, on https://agi.safe.ai/, https://lastexam.ai/, or https://dashboard.safe.ai/, including jointly with Scale AI) that is clearly identified as overall accuracy on the full HLE-Diamond question set (1,000 questions, released September 22, 2026), without tools, at the reasoning setting labeled \"high\" in HLE-Diamond's main results.\n\nNo score other than the chart value or a qualifying score will count, even if no qualifying score is published. This includes scores on the original Humanity's Last Exam or HLE-Rolling, \"reasoning max\" or \"with tools\" results, Reasoning or Knowledge partition scores, values available only through an API, data file, or page source, scores from Scale AI's separate leaderboards, other evaluators, or the model's developer, and any score where there is reasonable doubt that it meets the conditions above.\n\nA model first appears on the site on the earlier of the date (ET) it is first displayed on the chart and the date (ET) a qualifying score for it is first published. If the chart value is used, the check described in the first paragraph takes place at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the model's first display on the chart; if a qualifying score is used, it takes place at the end of the three-day period described above.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE-Diamond Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered.\n\nIf a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that no HLE-Diamond Accuracy for it is available under these rules at the time of the check, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at the time of the check, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE-Diamond Accuracy becomes available. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-22T20:39:52Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":35752.40667900001,"volume_24hr":16120.913695,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.790794372558594,"normalized_volume":24.964942932128906,"liquidity":10221.2286,"open_interest":7871.313488,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"473","slug":"gpt","label":"gpt"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"106092","slug":"astra","label":"Astra"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"},{"id":"105581","slug":"ai-benchmarks","label":"AI Benchmarks"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"55%+","top_outcome_probability":0.885,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1582.7478530000008,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:51:03.329706Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T03:51:03.329706Z","added_at":"2026-10-22T20:54:52.423431Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-hle-diamond-debut-20261020","chart_24h":[19791.582984,19791.582984,20081.692984,20447.272984,20447.272984,20727.272984,20743.062458,21048.772458,21063.772458,21063.772458,21071.672458,21653.882458,21653.882458,21661.322458,21780.132458,21780.132458,21780.132458,21920.132458,24223.242458,24240.777912999998,24240.777913,24240.777912999998,24246.272416,22763.767848,18191.675718,16414.530585,14366.611443,13592.491443,17441.11418,16358.244937,16084.863695]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8Gq8TWVjA1LeBNEt68d2","ticker":null,"slug":"apple-vision-pro-discontinued-in-20","title":"Apple Vision Pro discontinued before 2028?","description":"YES = Apple discontinue it\n\nNO = Apple keep selling it","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FA6HDXrj9K-.png?alt=media&token=03ac5bc7-e274-4515-ba6e-ab8ce781be38","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-06T14:47:55.273000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10621.590349370594,"volume_24hr":578.3870271117408,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.71429443359375,"normalized_volume":31.61697006225586,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["apple","technology-default","apple-vision-pro"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.137599,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Apple Vision Pro discontinued before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.137599,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.022153000000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":288.38702711174085,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/oracleofosaka/apple-vision-pro-discontinued-in-20","chart_24h":[0.159752,0.159752,0.159752,0.159752,0.159752,0.159752,0.159752,0.159752,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599,0.137599]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4021","ticker":"BESTAI26","slug":"best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","description":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/Contract_Image__1__c09cff3c-54fb-42e7-9dcf-e0cc6d6b64d5.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T11:46:32.803000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":308539.0,"volume_24hr":926.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.8250732421875,"normalized_volume":88.28453063964844,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["AI Models"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Claude","top_outcome_probability":0.51,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:48:28.607681Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T03:48:28.607681Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[1033.0,783.0,533.0,1436.0,1186.0,936.0,926.0]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1103970","ticker":"missouri-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","slug":"missouri-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","title":"Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the State of Missouri enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies.\n\nEnactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment.\n\nExecutive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify.\n\nThe moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings.\n\nThis market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Missouri; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/missouri-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929-vYUdbIsyX1Ug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/missouri-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929-vYUdbIsyX1Ug.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-29T15:58:02Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":771288.3629180001,"volume_24hr":13255.959589,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.239784240722656,"normalized_volume":41.73446273803711,"liquidity":151734.76854,"open_interest":42637.365685,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"763","slug":"states","label":"states"},{"id":"104967","slug":"compute","label":"Compute"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 3.25%"},{"id":"100929","slug":"missouri","label":"Missouri"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105582","slug":"ai-regulation","label":"AI Regulation"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.255,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:14.724374Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:14.724374Z","added_at":"2026-09-29T19:00:28.632076Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/missouri-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","chart_24h":[506.378975,506.378975,506.378975,6297.155642,5797.135642,6145.393374,7671.209541,7671.209541,7671.209541,7671.209541,7671.209541,7671.209541,7671.209541,7671.209541,12272.908564,12272.908564,12472.609589,12889.749589000001,12889.749589000001,12889.749589000001,12889.749589000001,12889.749589000001,12889.749589,12889.749589,12889.749589000001,12889.749589,12889.749589000001,13255.959588999998,13255.959589,13255.959589,13255.959589]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1114518","ticker":"2nd-largest-company-end-of-october-2026","slug":"2nd-largest-company-end-of-october-2026","title":"2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T16:14:21Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":95820.109108,"volume_24hr":12927.548798,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.041099548339844,"normalized_volume":29.880332946777344,"liquidity":157660.09781,"open_interest":23638.985316,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy","Finance","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Apple","top_outcome_probability":0.56,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.1349999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3622.4255980000007,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:30.346981Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:30.346981Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T16:34:41.942523Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/2nd-largest-company-end-of-october-2026","chart_24h":[6166.782422,6251.812422000001,6251.812422,6415.602466,6626.3148,6545.1748,6545.1748,6722.4398,6579.342329,6604.18705,6765.6870499999995,6866.148712,6866.190498,7551.424438999999,8749.200466,8358.680021,9359.40574,10624.475218,11386.492580000002,12029.782580000001,12570.469095999999,12933.022867,13525.957153000001,13457.957153000001,13457.967153000001,13438.081221,14523.76722,15280.638930000001,13126.430127000001,13089.663026,12924.040025999999]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Fu06rW7W4z8Uqabxm3MB","ticker":null,"slug":"will-spacex-send-a-starship-to-mars","title":"Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?","description":"\"To Mars\" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars. It doesn't have to be a landing; an orbit around the planet or a close flyby also qualify.  However simply going out past Mars's orbital distance from the sun, while not actually approaching the planet itself, does not count.\n\n\"Send\" means that a rocket lifted off the launchpad for that target. A mission that is simply scheduled for the future does not count. A mission that lifts off and then blows up 2 feet above the launch pad still counts.\n\nIf there's a mission that is half-jokingly described as aiming for Mars, but clearly had no hope whatsoever of actually getting there, that doesn't count. It must be a serious attempt. (But something as low as a 10% chance is still a serious attempt.)\n\n\"Starship\" refers to the second stage only. A Superheavy first stage does not have to be going. If they rename Starship to something else, that still counts. (Please note that this is about sending the entire Starship to Mars, not just using Starship to launch a smaller vehicle towards Mars and then turn back towards Earth.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FXeJ5IIxNFw.png?alt=media&token=fe9576dd-5540-4bc7-b169-226ebeae74db","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-07T18:16:03.839000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":159249.79513209182,"volume_24hr":482.4371799978112,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.54218292236328,"normalized_volume":52.78096389770508,"liquidity":1125.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["spacex","space","elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e","mars"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.037473,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.037473,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-spacex-send-a-starship-to-mars","chart_24h":[0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473,0.037473]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1040632","ticker":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-november","slug":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-november","title":"Which company has the best AI model end of November?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNote: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-18T00:09:51Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":400978.198618,"volume_24hr":11786.748287,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.317264556884766,"normalized_volume":37.8036003112793,"liquidity":186289.41013,"open_interest":60757.466201999996,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"105580","slug":"ai-rankings","label":"AI Rankings"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"106269","slug":"gpt-releases","label":"GPT Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Google","top_outcome_probability":0.55,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03499999999999992,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-0.9535339999997632,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:48.354811Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:48.354811Z","added_at":"2026-09-18T00:33:25.502712Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-november","chart_24h":[22310.39501,22301.13575,22301.13575,22169.13575,22125.39575,22206.98575,22206.98575,17355.876906,17274.046906,17024.236906,16904.459706,16715.149706,16715.149706,1704.386464,1697.359436,1710.928589,1431.482435,3614.402435,3614.402435,3614.402435,3614.402435,3080.402435,2625.009732,3085.009732,3085.009732,3085.009732,11950.748288,11881.303843,11881.748287,11876.748287,11776.748287]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1040305","ticker":"coreweave-announces-bankruptcy-by","slug":"coreweave-announces-bankruptcy-by","title":"CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if CoreWeave announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents CoreWeave. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/coreweave-announces-bankruptcy-by-vRtKJP08SA3I.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/coreweave-announces-bankruptcy-by-vRtKJP08SA3I.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T22:38:30Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":311319.39964400005,"volume_24hr":11282.490001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.985836029052734,"normalized_volume":36.33513259887695,"liquidity":59480.1919,"open_interest":70033.98024,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"105300","slug":"corporate-financials","label":"Corporate Financials"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 3.25%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2029","top_outcome_probability":0.265,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-30.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:48.354811Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:48.354811Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T22:56:08.625984Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/coreweave-announces-bankruptcy-by","chart_24h":[3560.84,3560.84,3560.84,2095.88,2065.88,2065.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,2035.88,11210.156667,11282.490001,11282.490001,11282.490001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"500753","ticker":"will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","slug":"will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","title":"Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-19T04:57:57.988000Z","end_date":"2027-01-05T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6068801.429627,"volume_24hr":11047.880018,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.823951721191406,"normalized_volume":55.402774810791016,"liquidity":365350.06925,"open_interest":1919360.545887,"categories":["Finance","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"104970","slug":"privates","label":"Privates"},{"id":"662","slug":"llm","label":"llm"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"104108","slug":"dario-amodei","label":"Dario Amodei"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"↑$1.5T","top_outcome_probability":0.935,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-372.728115,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:32.744592Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:32.744592Z","added_at":"2026-05-19T05:19:10.300636Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","chart_24h":[49444.367255,49444.367255,49378.367255,48837.129160000004,48859.249488,47498.815446,47498.815446,48505.185446,48495.185446,53294.57878,53311.40378,53311.40378,54501.407069,54476.40706899999,54630.077069,54390.895402999995,48795.107346,46512.987345999994,42555.681596,42237.307766,35381.757366,34924.153081000004,31999.486057000002,26594.486057,26594.486057,26634.079571,27985.260048,27985.260048,28067.260048,28117.750048,17720.383666]},{"source":"manifold","id":"uzy6qS585c","ticker":null,"slug":"elon-musk-actually-gifts-a-spacex-s","title":"Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?","description":"Here's the context: Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on X \n\n\nResolution details:\n\nThey don't need to receive the money within 2027. If a consensus of credible reporting says that Musk has initiated the process within the calendar year of 2027, then I'll leave the market open and it can resolve once the money is received (even if that stretches beyond 2027). \n\nIt needs to cover >90% of children (<5 years old at the start of 2027) who are American citizens during the year 2027. It is ok if a smaller % actually receive it (e.g., the parent has to put in some work to get it). I'll evaluate coverage based on my subjective sense of \"if a typical motivated parent wanted to put a bit of work in, could they actually secure this for their child).\n\nI will be ~somewhat flexible on what \"one SpaceX share\" means. Probably it will be a threshold like receiving monetary value of at least >50% the market value of a SpaceX share.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-19T20:35:25.353000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12883.300248695796,"volume_24hr":453.80547406119666,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.82386016845703,"normalized_volume":32.94727325439453,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e","elon-musk-9SnzlR8p2A","spacex"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.405993,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.405993,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.06794299999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1545.5202319025398,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-10-20T22:11:38.994357Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/elon-musk-actually-gifts-a-spacex-s","chart_24h":[0.33805,0.33805,0.33805,0.33805,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.408997,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993,0.405993]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"875723","ticker":"in-which-month-will-anthropic-ipo","slug":"in-which-month-will-anthropic-ipo","title":"In which month will Anthropic IPO?","description":"This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange.\n\nAn IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing.\n\nIf Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nAnnouncements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.\n\nResolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T13:36:52Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":440421.86185899994,"volume_24hr":10653.267965000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.54461669921875,"normalized_volume":38.355308532714844,"liquidity":93763.3133,"open_interest":46787.42269200001,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.6175,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.135,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2600.3694889999997,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:54.156723Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:54.156723Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T15:02:27.529439Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/in-which-month-will-anthropic-ipo","chart_24h":[3915.893438,3915.893438,4090.893438,4090.893438,4090.893438,4090.893438,4090.893438,4090.893438,4090.893438,4184.853438,3432.983438,3432.983438,1004.56944,1452.31944,2280.2166939999997,2830.216694,2969.6966939999998,2571.6966939999998,2557.480902,3979.2509019999998,4035.670902,3881.797254,3881.797254,3881.797254,4715.526202,4715.526202,4762.466202,4782.466202,5060.7306419999995,5938.394601,10575.297965]}],"meta":{"page":1,"page_size":50,"total":1532,"total_pages":31}}