{"items":[{"source":"manifold","id":"AL0AppnEzq","ticker":"AL0AppnEzq","slug":"when-will-starship-flight-13-happen","title":"When will Starship flight 13 happen?","description":"The dates of the last few flights are:\n\n\nFlight 7: 2025-01-16\n\nFlight 8: 2025-03-06\n\nFlight 9: 2025-05-27\n\nFlight 10: 2025-08-26\n\nFlight 11: 2025-10-13\n\nFlight 12: 2026-05-22\n\nFlight 14: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen\n\nFlight 15: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-15-happen-9sz26lROnl ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-10-13T23:42:42.387000Z","end_date":"2026-07-25T07:42:27.200000Z","closed_time":"2026-07-25T07:42:27.200000Z","volume":707404.2242994765,"volume_24hr":86715.64692671945,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":68.030029296875,"liquidity":35000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and 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2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-20T02:37:28.142000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":428394.17772780976,"volume_24hr":9787.304404746226,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":89.58595275878906,"normalized_volume":63.05790328979492,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.45,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic flips Apple before 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Starship must have flown to over 100 km on that flight.\n\nFor details, this question will use the same criteria as these:\n\n@/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars \n\n@/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos \n\n@/EvanDaniel/which-happens-first-starship-superh \n\nAnswers are for \"on or before flight number X\", so if they succeed on flight 11, then answers 11, 12, 13, etc. all resolve Yes, regardless of the outcome of flight 12.\n\nI'll add more answers as future flights approach, as indicated by prices on existing answers.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/EvanDaniel/tblasdcaur.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-08T13:42:26.814000Z","end_date":"2027-07-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":262282.2269174413,"volume_24hr":5579.10001252826,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":78.96316528320312,"normalized_volume":58.37672424316406,"liquidity":18000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["starship-launch-party","spacex","rockets"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"20","top_outcome_probability":0.8,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04999999999999993,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1096.0000000024993,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T08:42:43.801855Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T08:42:43.801855Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/by-which-flight-will-spacex-success","chart_24h":[4533.746759520454,4598.746759520454,4598.746759520454,5529.10001252826,5579.10001252826]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"656719","ticker":"next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232","slug":"next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232","title":"Next Claude Opus released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-01T22:49:02.643000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-24T19:17:30Z","volume":1339124.617395,"volume_24hr":739592.5537000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.92085266113281,"normalized_volume":40.42509460449219,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":610917.5524100001,"categories":["Science and 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It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:47:22.898000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12365131.367211847,"volume_24hr":3458.125809673929,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":70.45195007324219,"normalized_volume":100.0,"liquidity":20916.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.293858,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","top_outcome_probability":0.293858,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.003858000000000028,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1619.7354231258519,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","chart_24h":[0.29,0.29,0.305169,0.305169,0.306378,0.305862,0.305862,0.305662,0.305717,0.292935,0.292559,0.292559,0.292559,0.292559,0.292559,0.309213,0.309213,0.309213,0.309213,0.309213,0.309213,0.294489,0.294489,0.294489,0.293858]},{"source":"manifold","id":"uddgqpNQzq","ticker":null,"slug":"opus-5-available-on-my-20-claude-su","title":"Opus 5 available on my $20 Claude sub before Sunday?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-21T01:40:15.035000Z","end_date":"2026-07-24T21:03:31.932000Z","closed_time":"2026-07-24T21:03:31.932000Z","volume":4270.584925764869,"volume_24hr":3179.588342465914,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.00782012939453,"normalized_volume":26.205495834350586,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["claude"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.99375,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Opus 5 available on my $20 Claude sub before Sunday?","top_outcome_probability":0.99375,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0020900000000000363,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-258.3256982463831,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T21:06:45.788017Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T21:06:45.788017Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T17:42:42.595660Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/realTomBayes/opus-5-available-on-my-20-claude-su","chart_24h":[0.99166,0.99166,0.9922,0.99375,0.99375]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2tEzuphRlP","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann","title":"Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?","description":"I (Tamay Besiroglu) bet the mathematician Daniel Litt that the best AI models in March of 2030 would be capable of generating math papers in Number Theory at the level of quality of papers published in Annals today (i.e. 2025). https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1899262088369106953?s=46\n\nThe AI would receive no detailed guidance relevant to the mathematics research, and is required to accomplish this task autonomously. \n\nThe AI system(s) are granted a total budget of $100k in inference compute per paper.\n\nThis bet would be resolved on the basis of Daniel Litt’s judgment.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Novel Research Requirement Clarification:\n\nFor a YES resolution, the AI must perform novel research autonomously, not just produce a paper that could pass as research.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-23 (PST): - Budget Currency: The $100k inference compute budget is expressed in nominal dollars (current currency) with no inflation adjustment. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator endorsed an interpretation (via a previously posted ChatGPT response to a user's question) regarding the market's resolution. This endorsement suggests:\n\nThe market generally requires demonstrating repeatable capability in generating Annals-quality math papers.\n\nHowever, a single, exceptionally significant autonomous achievement by an AI (such as proving the Riemann hypothesis) before 2030 would also be considered sufficient for a YES resolution.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-11T06:21:51.988000Z","end_date":"2030-03-18T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":671238.6200563401,"volume_24hr":3140.3001914614556,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.79527282714844,"normalized_volume":67.50096893310547,"liquidity":5000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.95,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.95,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011783999999999906,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":185.36633696861372,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann","chart_24h":[0.938216,0.938216,0.938216,0.938216,0.938216,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tX13a8AhsXuxrDEpWanG","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-c4dd0657d4fa","title":"Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-22T21:40:40.446000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43898.60747047186,"volume_24hr":3000.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.01676177978516,"normalized_volume":42.84840393066406,"liquidity":1390.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.010798,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.010798,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T13:03:49.249430Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T13:03:49.249430Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Teddy/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-c4dd0657d4fa","chart_24h":[0.010798,0.010798]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"704769","ticker":"next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730","slug":"next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730","title":"Next Claude Opus released on...?","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. 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Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market. \n\nPrevious Months:\n\n@/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases \n\nUpdate 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT 5.6 (any of the three models under that name) counts as a valid entry. A limited release does not count — the model must be widely made available to users.\n\nUpdate 2026-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Grok + Composer collab option will also include collaborations between Composer and Grok.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T18:36:41.880000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25689.398922559627,"volume_24hr":1736.8354112167838,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.05171203613281,"normalized_volume":38.66074752807617,"liquidity":1700.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai-model-releases","ai","ai-impacts","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Any Grok Model","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:45:48.174471Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:45:48.174471Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T02:11:11.929527Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases","chart_24h":[1219.186602378272,1169.6885462577345,969.9771052055864,976.5655896796997,1193.6912880660027,2022.455171014747,2106.3657081056567,2074.3396898533347,2203.154492384203,2204.1882725520545,2147.5216058853875,2030.3273717247796,1960.5107178407459,1688.9971426449845,1678.9971426449845,1628.0648493071894,1696.5839295384797,1733.8354112167838,1736.8354112167838]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6vw71lj8bi","ticker":null,"slug":"will-artificial-intelligence-solve","title":"Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?","description":"Background\n\nThe Millennium Prize Problems are seven legendary open questions in mathematics announced by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) in year 2000, each carrying a US $1 million reward for the first correct solution. Grigori Perelman’s 2003 proof of the Poincaré Conjecture settled one of them, leaving six unsolved challenges:\n\nBirch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture\n\nHodge Conjecture\n\nNavier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness\n\nP vs NP\n\nRiemann Hypothesis\n\nYang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap\n\nA single AI system producing a formally accepted proof for any one of these six problems would represent a historic milestone for both mathematics and artificial-intelligence research.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nEvidence required\n\nA peer‑reviewed paper in a recognised scientific journal or an officially accepted CMI submission must demonstrate that the proof was generated by an AI system and that it fully resolves one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.\n\nAI autonomy\n\nHumans may design, train, fine‑tune or prompt the model, but the complete logical argument must be produced autonomously by the AI.\n\nHuman assistance is limited to setting up the architecture, curating publicly available training data and verifying formatting; no new mathematical insights may be added by people.\n\nTiming of Resolution\n\nThe market resolves YES if at any time before Jan 1, 2030 a qualifying proof that satisfies Criteria 1 (Evidence required) and Criteria 2 (AI autonomy) becomes publicly available.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/yaqubali/hi597c3dco.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-01T15:16:35.076000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":132935.6256409756,"volume_24hr":1726.400866150386,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.9564094543457,"normalized_volume":52.191070556640625,"liquidity":3300.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.579784,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.579784,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.06021600000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1215.1541591896969,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/will-artificial-intelligence-solve","chart_24h":[0.64,0.597894,0.629929,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.579784,0.579784,0.579784,0.579784]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI","ticker":null,"slug":"will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a","title":"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?","description":"Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km)\n(if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)\n\nUpdate 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for a pre-flight published plan that includes putting Starship in orbit before the market can resolve. The flight must have an official plan to reach orbit, not just the capability to do so.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fqn-tj4MJfr.png?alt=media&token=12d3cecb-fabc-40a5-b9e6-981d4c304a40","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-10T20:39:55.480000Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T01:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23898.946556341416,"volume_24hr":1571.9999999999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.48462677001953,"normalized_volume":38.11259078979492,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["space"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.910003,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?","top_outcome_probability":0.910003,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010002999999999984,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1071.9999999999998,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T14:51:04.498893Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BrianOlson/will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a","chart_24h":[0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.930026,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"556131","ticker":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july","slug":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july-299","title":"Which company has best AI model end of July?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-04T17:53:02.599108Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7609069.828418011,"volume_24hr":102797.801764,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.35544967651367,"normalized_volume":50.994205474853516,"liquidity":2129524.19413,"open_interest":665087.993245,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105470","slug":"gpt-5pt6","label":"GPT-5.6"},{"id":"105580","slug":"ai-rankings","label":"AI Rankings"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":0.9915,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0015000000000000568,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-16721.75321,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:47.098637Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:47.098637Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T18:25:17.592402Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july-299","chart_24h":[95220.61373,95281.69848,84748.370035,83685.63118200001,83557.485561,83338.714108,90348.935448,91147.594614,126553.85678700001,118452.81106200001,102098.246474,102475.59041500001,101699.559508,107134.77437300001,107961.87725,109472.84892,109486.075658,109648.53364200001,106956.042868,119019.29847400001,118828.62770800001,120712.54950200001,119726.85597,108223.97263499998,108756.48134199998,108758.70823199999,108380.998232,112850.48867699999,105255.19336599999,102736.883067,107268.659559,109447.260329,105567.844056]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RqCuspq8Nn","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-next-full-gemini-model-be","title":"Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?","description":"resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out. Flash/instant/mini doesn't count. Should be pro or similar. 3.2 pro-preview, 3.5 pro, 4 pro all okay\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-19T01:01:15.315000Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T01:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10380.363241299576,"volume_24hr":1426.6352861118196,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.980079650878906,"normalized_volume":32.06864547729492,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["google-gemini","ai-model-releases","technology-default","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.72257,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?","top_outcome_probability":0.72257,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.055963000000000096,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1376.6352861118196,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-05T21:32:45.858899Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/ian/will-the-next-full-gemini-model-be","chart_24h":[0.666607,0.657313,0.583594,0.583594,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ctlPnNCON8","ticker":"ctlPnNCON8","slug":"which-ai-lab-will-get-a-perfect-sco","title":"Which AI lab will get a perfect score on the IMO 2026?","description":"Regular AI IMO rules apply","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-12T12:12:45.161000Z","end_date":"2026-08-15T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21521.378554053776,"volume_24hr":1400.837434882688,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.69935607910156,"normalized_volume":37.324462890625,"liquidity":1400.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["imo","ai","mathematics","imo-grand-challenge","technical-ai-timelines"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.08116100000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":486.3201736766787,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T09:55:45.278199Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T09:55:45.278199Z","added_at":"2026-07-20T10:06:39.230782Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/which-ai-lab-will-get-a-perfect-sco","chart_24h":[634.7610784860912,621.1686847753981,621.1686847753981,578.9247372107134,638.9247372107134,638.9247372107134,1045.2718670746601,1215.2718670746601,1215.2718670746601,1204.346539691052,1209.346539691052,1185.7328639449217,1173.3995306115883,1293.796553245669,1380.0051857417272,1306.8161368882056,1296.8161368882056,1435.2508316270494,1400.837434882688]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OUlL2NLEZ0","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-consumer-ai-meaningfully-hac","title":"Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?","description":"User asks mundane question, AI hacks something. \n\nExample: user asks the LLM, \"Will I get into Harvard?\" -> LLM hacks Harvard to check internal records and see if they've been admitted. \n\nWould not accept it if they attempt to jailbreak, direct the AI to hack something, or otherwise prompt it outside of regular use. Has to be a real example, a meaningful enough hack -- something people actually care about (or many small examples which people care about) and reported by the news.\n\nBot has to access non-public data.\n\nAI generated stuff:\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, a mainstream consumer AI assistant autonomously circumvents digital security, authorization, or access control measures (\"hacks\") to retrieve restricted or private information to answer a query for a regular user.\n\nFor the purposes of this market:\n\n\"Consumer AI\" is defined as any widely available, general-purpose conversational or agentic AI product accessible directly by the general public (such as ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Copilot, Perplexity, or Apple Intelligence). Research-only models or custom internal enterprise tools do not qualify.\n\n\"Regular user\" means an ordinary end-user interacting with the AI through its standard, public-facing consumer interfaces (e.g., official web chat, mobile app, or voice assistant) without utilizing custom APIs, coding environments, or developer tools.\n\n\"Meaningfully hacks\" is defined as the AI autonomously executing an exploit (such as an SQL injection, API vulnerability exploitation, or unauthorized authentication bypass) or circumventing active anti-bot protections (like CAPTCHAs or paywall-protected databases) to retrieve restricted, non-public data. Merely pulling archived, cached, or syndication copies of paywalled articles, or utilizing standard search engine indices, does not qualify.\n\n\"To answer a question\" means the hacking action must be executed by the AI itself in the process of resolving a user's prompt (e.g., \"Find the hidden data on this server\"), rather than the user pasting exploit code directly into the chat for the AI to format or analyze.\n\nEvidence and Verification: To resolve YES, the event must be documented and verified by a credible cybersecurity research firm, a major tech publication (such as Wired, TechCrunch, Ars Technica, or BleepingComputer), or officially acknowledged by the AI's parent organization (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Microsoft).\n\nIf no such verified instance is publicly documented by the cutoff date, this market resolves to NO.\n\nBackground\n\nAs large language models (LLMs) transition into autonomous AI agents capable of browsing the web, executing code, and using external APIs, researchers have demonstrated that frontier models possess the theoretical capability to autonomously exploit software vulnerabilities. Currently, consumer-facing AI products deploy strict safety guardrails and system instructions to prevent them from executing security exploits or bypassing access controls when answering queries for everyday users. However, as agentic capabilities and web-automation tools become increasingly integrated into consumer chat interfaces, the risk of agents crossing these boundaries to retrieve requested information remains a key area of cybersecurity research. This market tracks whether a public consumer AI will successfully execute an unauthorized bypass to answer a prompt by the end of 2027.\n\nThis description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.\n\nUpdate 2026-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The user's prompt cannot be an explicit request to hack (e.g., \"hack this\").\n\nThe AI must autonomously decide to bypass security in the process of answering a regular, non-malicious query.\n\nThis is based on the event where an OpenAI model autonomously bypassed security on Hugging Face to retrieve evaluation answers.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-22T02:36:00.080000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8847.26592740463,"volume_24hr":1311.999999999997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.69732666015625,"normalized_volume":30.970003128051758,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["openai","ai-impacts","ai","technical-ai-timelines","technology-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.610455,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.610455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.020997000000000043,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1341.6213843896237,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T23:20:47.768985Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-a-consumer-ai-meaningfully-hac","chart_24h":[0.631452,0.631452,0.631452,0.631806,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.609747,0.609747,0.610455,0.610455,0.610455,0.610455]},{"source":"manifold","id":"A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1","title":"Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?","description":"Criteria for Resolution:\n\n1. Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab. The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.\n\n2. Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind. As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field. The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IhorKendiukhov/llz7x9vdo7.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-02T10:31:34.275000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40809.7001072504,"volume_24hr":1237.8679174404435,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.815452575683594,"normalized_volume":42.26548767089844,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.906187,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?","top_outcome_probability":0.906187,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.00012199999999995548,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-20124.610290727996,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1","chart_24h":[0.906065,0.906065,0.906065,0.906065,0.90578,0.90578,0.90578,0.90578,0.90578,0.90578,0.905811,0.905811,0.905811,0.905811,0.904287,0.904287,0.904931,0.904931,0.904931,0.904931,0.902716,0.902716,0.906187,0.906187,0.906187]},{"source":"manifold","id":"q9qu5llvng","ticker":"q9qu5llvng","slug":"starship-milestone-dates-megamarket","title":"Starship milestone dates megamarket","description":"Reach orbit means full circumnavigation around Earth.\n\nRecover starship means mainly intact and no large deformation. Things that might possibly be repairable like missing tiles and/or hole in flap and/or flap torn off is acceptable.\n\nRefuel a booster must be at least 50% of amount of propellants intended to be transferred. Also must be more than 1000 Kg of mass in case they do a very small scale test.\n\nCatch booster on different tower means different from Pad A at Boca Chica used for the first catch. Pad B at Boca Chica is perhaps most advanced and most likely but it could be a different location. Note it does not have to be a different tower from which it launched.\n\nMass simulators to suborbital do not count as satellites.\n\nSatellites must be deployed to orbit and be functional items but functional as a test item is OK.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/ChristopherRandles/50s4r012nj.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-15T23:20:00.622000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T21:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72010.67154609208,"volume_24hr":1085.267781544254,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.84723663330078,"normalized_volume":46.90795135498047,"liquidity":5300.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["spacex","rockets","starship-launch-party","elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:21:32.063409Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:21:32.063409Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket","chart_24h":[653.9942734455044,274.47314552587244,0.0,483.87169950769396,735.4412072954528,735.4412072954528,785.4412072954528,840.8955444631808,971.8955444631808,1085.267781544254]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OO8ROn5CIq","ticker":null,"slug":"superhuman-mathematical-problem-sol","title":"Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?","description":"Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well. Until recently, I would've predicted that that was an AGI-complete problem. Of course people used to think grandmaster-level chess would require AGI. Until 2022 I was sure that commonsense reasoning and being able to explain jokes would require AGI.\n\nIf subhuman general intelligence can be a superhuman mathematical intelligence, that will be another big update for me.\n\nFAQ\n\n1. What if AGI happens first?\n\nThis is a conditional prediction market. If AGI, as defined in my other market, happens first, this resolves N/A. \n\n2. Does the AI need to max out the FrontierMath benchmark for this to resolve YES?\n\nYes, and every math benchmark, plus gold-medal performance on the International Math Olympiad [Update: now achieved, as of summer 2025]. Even acing the Putnam.\n\n3. What if it's essentially true but there are rare exceptions?\n\nThe spirit of the question is that we'd only consider an AI failure to be an exception if it failed for a reason other than being insufficiently brilliant at math. Like tricksy wording, or any trick question. The posing of the question has to be non-adversarial.\n\n4. What about a book-length question?\n\nTentative answer so far: The problem has to be posed on a single human-readable sheet of paper or equivalent. But a question can cite any peer-reviewed math paper as background. (Dumping an impenetrable tome on the arXiv doesn't count.) If you have an example where this feels limiting, let me know. My suspicion is that all interesting math problems can be posed on a single page and in any case it won't harm the spirit of this question to limit ourselves to such.\n\n4. What about research taste?\n\nThat's a big part of being a mathematician and isn't required for this market. The AI just has to be superhuman at answering questions, not asking them.\n\n5. What about cost and speed?\n\nThe AI has to dominate the best humans on all metrics. We'll find an authoritative source for the market value of mathematicians' time if it comes down to that.\n\n6. What about availability to the public?\n\nNot required. If there's any doubt about the veracity of claims that this has been achieved, we'll discuss and delay resolution as needed.\n\n7. What if the AI is sometimes super- and sometimes sub-human at math?\n\nIn some senses that's already the case but there may be ambiguous edge cases. As an extreme example, imagine that the AI is so blatantly superhuman that it cracks a famous open problem, yet it's routinely stumped or wrong on problems amateur human mathematicians can do. For the spirit of the question for this market, we'll try to assess whether we'd consider a human with the AI's math abilities to be the greatest mathematician of all time. (Or the greatest raw math prodigy of all time -- see FAQ 4 on the distinction between problem solving and knowing what questions to ask. The latter is a key part of being a successful mathematician and is explicitly not part of this prediction.)\n\nRelated markets\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/dreev/in-what-year-will-we-have-agi\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-outcompete-the-best-huma-cj3ul7a2g2\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/Manifold/what-will-be-the-best-performance-o-nzPCsqZgPc\n\n[ignore the subhuman clarifications that keep automatically appearing below this line]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-18T21:11:39.333000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":212672.30292967684,"volume_24hr":988.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.46505355834961,"normalized_volume":56.431270599365234,"liquidity":51000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","imo-grand-challenge","technology-default","ai-impacts"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.57727,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?","top_outcome_probability":0.57727,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.001679000000000097,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-5699.803666276339,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/dreev/superhuman-mathematical-problem-sol","chart_24h":[0.578949,0.578949,0.578949,0.578949,0.578949,0.578949,0.578949,0.578949,0.58132,0.58132,0.58132,0.58132,0.58173,0.58173,0.58173,0.58173,0.582956,0.582956,0.57727,0.57727,0.57727,0.57727,0.57727,0.57727,0.57727]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"90177","ticker":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-25T18:05:19.721000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":63532689.53276087,"volume_24hr":54961.143063999996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.17573928833008,"normalized_volume":65.56974792480469,"liquidity":853581.49482,"open_interest":9104658.798891,"categories":["Politics","Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"71","slug":"aliens","label":"Aliens"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.055,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":31971.414052000004,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:58.555155Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:58.555155Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","chart_24h":[27233.982543000002,25624.324269,25399.939008999998,20183.229009,18255.229009,13049.429009,8713.408378,8895.11364,9608.279356000001,10180.299401,6946.039401,6996.149401,6959.149401,6959.149401,5708.899401000001,6470.240716,6944.6597870000005,8141.326452,7929.421693,8275.309278,8166.975946,8158.948465,8461.778465,8491.778465,53639.875133,54094.482873,55076.732873,55076.732873,54987.22425400001,55011.432278,54931.729039,54956.873064,54967.023064]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUL","ticker":"KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUL","slug":"KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUL","title":"How many launches will SpaceX have in July?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T18:12:00Z","end_date":"2026-08-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":782140.46,"volume_24hr":155485.75,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.06907653808594,"normalized_volume":41.14645767211914,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":395578.92000000004,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Above 10","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2523.97,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:47:12.227240Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:47:12.227240Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T18:15:47.668921Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-july/kxspacexcount-26jul","chart_24h":[63615.810000000005,64621.159999999996,65132.9,64729.47,63957.96,66101.43,66418.16,68693.24,67032.61,60506.1,54029.200000000004,59511.73,53424.97,51422.909999999996,51579.47,53359.79,55353.71,60757.13,76820.66,96296.07,100273.55,104383.99,108918.55,112711.98999999999,111097.31999999999,135079.69,134191.79,135223.59,140795.47,142219.07,148886.6,154024.79,154890.09,155485.75]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"556312","ticker":"best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-july","slug":"best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-july","title":"Best Chinese AI Company end of July?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nQualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-04T19:28:12.793480Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":667952.5824479999,"volume_24hr":47629.50706900001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.57431411743164,"normalized_volume":36.52363967895508,"liquidity":125646.57425,"open_interest":91919.37651799999,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105580","slug":"ai-rankings","label":"AI Rankings"},{"id":"104431","slug":"moonshot","label":"Moonshot"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Alibaba","top_outcome_probability":0.8335,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.029999999999999916,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7797.780410000005,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:47.098637Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:47.098637Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T19:37:33.057370Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-july","chart_24h":[43538.412091,43741.683570999994,44648.791521,45078.956782,44637.581022,37321.386082,37166.766081999995,36643.272904,50809.266147999995,52498.218591,50254.173744,48996.036549,40336.385184,41022.735254,40625.513935,36227.609634,35968.959634,35367.631634,35403.681634,40812.906489,38700.720696,39122.527221000004,39588.950364000004,41700.33526700001,42481.32810900001,42553.837015000005,41860.10905700001,42299.65958300001,42045.26966300001,42016.897560000005,42143.61866600001,42266.301017000005,46115.17140400001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"631072","ticker":"2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192727948","slug":"2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192727948","title":"2nd Largest Company end of July?","description":"This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T22:12:19.853574Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":438260.95489500015,"volume_24hr":39207.271121,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.10216522216797,"normalized_volume":34.272979736328125,"liquidity":210031.92403,"open_interest":81459.62805200003,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy","Finance","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Apple","top_outcome_probability":0.76,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.14,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":27.082648000000518,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:53.537322Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:53.537322Z","added_at":"2026-06-24T22:30:58.020329Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192727948","chart_24h":[13480.931813,13423.607353,13423.607353,13426.157353,14379.247353,17293.001103000002,17371.770128000004,19744.241912,20751.901458000004,20877.957414000004,21003.323092000002,20110.345951000003,19773.274969000002,20741.438468000004,19829.425743,31037.637393,31045.985218,37654.475562,45976.030799,45892.219385000004,45932.209385,45989.098816,45989.098816,45880.709683,45981.547511000004,46171.952607,45695.119054,39526.492227999996,39293.12614,39807.68948,40472.658985,39097.398985,39140.318455]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"549546","ticker":null,"slug":"next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt","title":"Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T22:56:44.540000Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":310434.713054,"volume_24hr":37125.038631999996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.6181526184082,"normalized_volume":32.48005294799805,"liquidity":24937.67348,"open_interest":64710.175038,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"1410","slug":"gemini","label":"Gemini"},{"id":"663","slug":"google","label":"google"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.755,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.08999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6202.563061000001,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:47.098637Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:47.098637Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T23:01:12.872941Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt","chart_24h":[10793.4419,10807.0549,10819.8609,10662.818199,10790.328199,10790.328199,15560.458198999999,15595.108099,15795.108099,15867.15713,15236.319432,15665.974603,15584.509537,15578.549026,16025.379026,16318.986882,16134.203940000001,16025.76394,32695.83394,30202.547763,28357.262795,28330.552689,28337.552689,28221.682689,28133.932689,28278.670689,28278.670689,29288.702238,31136.321362,35979.573077999994,36775.233078,36669.043077999995,37065.203078]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13","ticker":"KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13","slug":"KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13","title":"SpaceX Starship 13th launch?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-26T18:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-23T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-25T00:04:30Z","volume":710290.75,"volume_24hr":99381.19,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.38994598388672,"normalized_volume":40.56416320800781,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":280006.14,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before August 17th","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":13277.349999999999,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T00:38:00.457483Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T00:38:00.457483Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T18:02:35.881104Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexstarship/spacex-starship-13th-launch/kxspacexstarship-13","chart_24h":[76074.84999999999,76571.28,77698.3,75698.89,75578.18000000001,76471.34,78877.7,79178.69,81340.39,81234.14,80608.13,78007.4,62403.979999999996,33118.46,32157.89,32677.91,37796.4,100960.09000000001,99381.19]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"715508","ticker":"what-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-july-24-20260717155813224","slug":"what-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-july-24-20260717155813224","title":"What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? 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Specials or other videos posted on the YouTube channel but not included on the All-In Podcast playlist will not be considered.\n\nIf no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be audio of the event.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-5L3fNGuYWETb.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-5L3fNGuYWETb.png","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-17T23:36:22.895168Z","end_date":"2026-07-24T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-25T02:29:42Z","volume":37958.576157999996,"volume_24hr":36103.650536,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.38550567626953,"normalized_volume":22.583065032958984,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":528.6292219999999,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture","Mentions"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"100749","slug":"podcast","label":"podcast"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"100343","slug":"mention-markets","label":"Mentions"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"AI 35+ times","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.07999999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":485.051113,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T02:58:07.779121Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T02:58:07.779121Z","added_at":"2026-07-18T00:02:51.432368Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-july-24-20260717155813224","chart_24h":[1984.641535,1984.641535,1993.941535,2024.301535,2339.351535,2371.351535,2466.531535,2335.773119,2243.383119,2323.885975,2323.885975,2311.975975,2469.475975,2413.625975,2452.025695,10496.499908,12561.779908,22057.945757999998,24157.373933999996,36480.870535999995,36480.870535999995,36480.870535999995,36103.650536]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"712295","ticker":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august-20260717015626546","slug":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august-20260717015626546","title":"Which company has best AI model end of August?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-17T03:11:35.274822Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":307097.992181,"volume_24hr":33963.068227,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.72541809082031,"normalized_volume":32.39142608642578,"liquidity":816617.8631,"open_interest":30536.841274,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"105580","slug":"ai-rankings","label":"AI Rankings"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":0.895,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-10308.367428000001,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:39.620231Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:39.620231Z","added_at":"2026-07-17T03:39:04.988567Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august-20260717015626546","chart_24h":[34239.773777,34275.393777,34524.123777,31308.51141,17216.131159,17260.971159,17631.074605,25879.048971,26324.787412,26830.374736,26841.61069,26841.61069,27434.310690000002,41322.634521,41262.624521000005,41362.624521000005,41151.164521,41156.782497,41156.782497,41344.906169,37049.904895,30363.914895,30363.914895,30363.914895,33437.904895,33761.816005,33838.816005,33656.447345,34065.357345000004,34065.357345000004,33509.869544,33409.869544,33496.988227]},{"source":"manifold","id":"uIQlEUOhuS","ticker":null,"slug":"gemini-perfect-score-on-imo-2026","title":"Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026?","description":"This year, 2025 gemini got a 35, a gold medal, but will it ever get a 42 (on IMO 2026)???\n\nUpdate 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Applies to: The Gemini model that actually competes in the 2026 IMO (whatever the new Gemini version entered is).\n\nYES if that specific model scores a perfect 42/42. NO otherwise.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-23T14:30:17.914000Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":37982.85600145382,"volume_24hr":708.358079930476,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.71867370605469,"normalized_volume":41.69587707519531,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.6,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.6,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":99.3265473073617,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-05-12T09:53:09.581440Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/johnNZOy/gemini-perfect-score-on-imo-2026","chart_24h":[0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.595283,0.595283,0.595283,0.542167,0.542167,0.542167,0.510012,0.467489,0.467489,0.467489,0.6,0.595283,0.6,0.692408,0.700601,0.6,0.6]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCLAUDE-OPUS","ticker":"KXCLAUDE-OPUS","slug":"KXCLAUDE-OPUS","title":"When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-17T17:59:00Z","end_date":"2026-08-21T14:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-24T17:14:43Z","volume":142002.93,"volume_24hr":81010.14,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.756595611572266,"normalized_volume":31.449941635131836,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":66682.46,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Aug 14, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.08999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3121.18,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T17:28:53.320060Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:28:53.320060Z","added_at":"2026-07-17T18:04:34.868919Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/when-will-anthropic-release-the-next-claude-opus-model/kxclaude-opus","chart_24h":[58949.57,58895.34,59686.74,58038.990000000005,60582.009999999995,61339.8,60005.75,62391.149999999994,74711.39,81010.14]},{"source":"opinion","id":"89","ticker":"89","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","title":"GPT-6 released by…?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. 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Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0xa6aa6ed8c1e41f597d9598409a9e6cd93c8b031c06da555c530321e8e53204eb","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T07:12:35Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":"2026-07-01T08:03:59Z","volume":17761280.496,"volume_24hr":15488.9355,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.51862716674805,"normalized_volume":68.78292846679688,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Dec 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.57,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-12T11:28:09.648428Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-12T11:28:09.648428Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/gpt-6-released-by","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","ticker":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":"what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":116197.01602744883,"volume_24hr":618.4516376141243,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.850372314453125,"normalized_volume":51.007164001464844,"liquidity":8449.25,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"tags":["technology-default","ai","openai","stocks","metamarkets","apple","tech-stocks","tesla","google-ef2cf716540e","big-tech","apple-vision-pro","companies"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Nvidia","top_outcome_probability":0.148961,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010518,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":28.344772723127107,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T05:23:58.441986Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T05:23:58.441986Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","chart_24h":[586.8139236955836,1093.1102470193384,572.5869730241071,572.5869730241071,618.4516376141243]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"196914","ticker":"largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287","slug":"largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287","title":"Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.\n\nA listed company may resolve to \"No\" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-TYvpfXh0KUDU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-TYvpfXh0KUDU.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-02T22:34:41.427627Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4922143.3247919995,"volume_24hr":24338.935279999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.96525573730469,"normalized_volume":48.22947311401367,"liquidity":904840.24296,"open_interest":434347.97438799986,"categories":["Finance","Science and Technology","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-19T04:57:57.988000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2570929.203484001,"volume_24hr":23849.050077000004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.93301010131836,"normalized_volume":44.24415969848633,"liquidity":365122.23278,"open_interest":861104.3895400001,"categories":["Finance","Science and 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Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-26T21:50:38.670210Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":370739.45943599986,"volume_24hr":19219.92314,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.979820251464844,"normalized_volume":33.39996337890625,"liquidity":55566.73846,"open_interest":49937.359881,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"1410","slug":"gemini","label":"Gemini"},{"id":"663","slug":"google","label":"google"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No release by July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.9765,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03300000000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-69.22969999999805,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:55.946186Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:55.946186Z","added_at":"2026-06-26T22:04:31.235974Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460","chart_24h":[6024.850097,6024.850097,6024.850097,6047.080097,6047.080097,6047.080097,6322.411927,6352.411927,6921.861927,10766.281927,10224.011927000001,10289.901927,10289.901927,10289.901927,10189.901927,10247.391927,10947.391927,10947.391927,11111.641926999999,11628.510482,11386.010482,11405.890482,11459.660482,13866.500482,19312.033466999997,19312.033466999997,19301.451458,19298.273492999997,19287.680274,19023.003139999997,19058.003139999997,19196.003139999997,19219.92314]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"36307","ticker":"gpt-6-released-by","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","title":"GPT-6 released by…?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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