{"items":[{"source":"manifold","id":"qpdlSsQzdU","ticker":null,"slug":"can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","title":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","description":"On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (non-explicitely-specialized for this task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable or better to the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. (Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed) can pick a movie that doesnt have copyright if need be. Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK. The resulting video must be about as long as the movie \n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/fvfp9L-qU7k?si=qCXEHIMcyziRmX1I)Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The movie must be theater-length (1.5+ hours), not a short film\n\nA $200/month subscription tier is acceptable for the model being tested; no explicit API cost limit has been set\n\nUpdate 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/subscription cost upper bound for the model being tested is somewhere between $200/month and $10,000 (exact limit not yet determined)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-07T04:33:08.159000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":804059.9771530674,"volume_24hr":944873.3088652845,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":69.4073715209961,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.479521,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.479521,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.016835999999999962,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":929490.4315320528,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T06:33:17.181565Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","chart_24h":[0.462685,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.488788,0.464977,0.478165,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.472862,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.48]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"314315","ticker":"claude-mythos-released-by","slug":"claude-mythos-released-by","title":"Claude Mythos released by…?","description":"A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased \"Claude Mythos\" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic releases \"Claude Mythos\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Claude Mythos\" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nProducts labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however,  a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-27T16:38:09.440113Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T19:09:30Z","volume":3213489.0365330023,"volume_24hr":2038325.4658930004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":85.2335433959961,"normalized_volume":49.29338073730469,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":1259530.2353009998,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"anthropic"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"},{"id":"104801","slug":"mythos","label":"Claude Mythos"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.05149999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":128914.59747,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T19:30:09.948661Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T19:30:09.948661Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by","chart_24h":[363043.11161799997,378099.15417099994,396951.60921100003,422481.64329800004,449465.36609100003,471196.535619,506041.188027,552067.5017240001,624629.1225459999,712298.6908469999,745000.2253859997,1161716.720149,1741422.162541,2003327.2923150002,2038325.4658930004]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"102007","ticker":"spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above","slug":"spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above","title":"SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-11T21:06:33.953532Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9063266.186351005,"volume_24hr":1169882.159462,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":78.8430404663086,"normalized_volume":56.3520393371582,"liquidity":1462461.73003,"open_interest":4193659.607044,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":">$1T","top_outcome_probability":0.9935,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":13587.141199000005,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above","chart_24h":[714592.690688,698274.476223,708746.220604,567071.298096,558679.406506,540844.811993,491579.382758,548518.5168249999,611298.918999,615624.986973,631600.7809499999,674442.8177159999,675400.491496,688412.776251,781285.585076,843170.664225,939079.855862,955031.970884,977040.829468,978528.444346,988983.5299649999,979807.5618449999,1009040.001011,1050949.4359519999,1114927.639497,1128946.332179,1178933.899787,1190566.452418,1228209.847929,1171916.150369,1163857.792633,1166417.0966460002,1170944.335185]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"90177","ticker":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-25T18:07:25.773403Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":50794578.63815341,"volume_24hr":525928.3900710001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":70.07848358154297,"normalized_volume":69.1301498413086,"liquidity":2910874.56267,"open_interest":9827284.75976,"categories":["Culture","Politics","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"71","slug":"aliens","label":"Aliens"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":28826.375465999976,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:21.558390Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:21.558390Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","chart_24h":[190292.120958,198367.836019,165091.617861,155589.44286399998,155525.74647299998,163780.52365599998,164120.23122299998,164354.82912699998,159064.751724,208872.48482899996,206963.67819399998,199317.363165,187790.61287,189589.213143,193046.98123799998,205855.771238,217199.89886,230767.54843099997,229813.97841199997,233979.687474,241903.96944400002,505900.07345200004,498611.03920500004,499594.236754,539845.8278910001,542880.457992,534370.009558,534472.314202,528727.0382310001,529279.8320070001,532559.5162190001,533731.0346090001,526054.753292]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"57705","ticker":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june","slug":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june","title":"Which company has best AI model end of June?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-10T21:54:22.492043Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12865914.709962018,"volume_24hr":457696.12593299994,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.6077880859375,"normalized_volume":58.84383010864258,"liquidity":3829133.20512,"open_interest":740275.193943,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"102464","slug":"gpt-5","label":"GPT-5"},{"id":"540","slug":"grok","label":"Grok"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":0.9165,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.019000000000000017,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":761.6568020000486,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:15.572349Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:15.572349Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june","chart_24h":[526848.8122069999,532011.6667429999,519724.35244099994,509474.80457499996,515935.1781489999,514219.23336799996,547696.568813,573554.4325219999,569293.568761,601636.422975,631027.8610659998,652095.5598819999,678157.3586899999,693994.3097919999,694410.588484,701110.3130989999,703099.756372,685115.924369,690632.352407,690300.210753,688332.209804,697052.193124,697848.6214429999,533415.8875529999,544725.5138999999,553600.5604379999,561196.527314,566756.66425,560811.76145,550393.171544,510636.94777100004,503043.025862,455603.65031]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXCLAUDE-MYTH","ticker":"KXCLAUDE-MYTH","slug":"KXCLAUDE-MYTH","title":"When will Anthropic release Mythos?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-16T02:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-08T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1108377.11,"volume_24hr":533612.0800000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.52327728271484,"normalized_volume":51.00872039794922,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":370595.92,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 1, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.28,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.44999999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-7790.649999999998,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:57:26.464388Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:57:26.464388Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/when-will-anthropic-release-mythos/kxclaude-myth","chart_24h":[387090.04,388241.01,392381.87,394163.26,408403.58999999997,415875.09,425969.33,437799.92,462682.79,497339.02999999997,537760.26,597058.92,633790.66,743556.27,770018.09,791191.13,799663.5599999999,802924.25,811239.52,839399.22,850058.32,849225.4,862475.77,861805.96,860948.32,856887.1799999999,864047.94,841033.41,771646.4299999999,721040.7999999999,705558.77,688583.37,599698.38,550930.14,543063.55,535971.94,535131.14,533612.0800000001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"36308","ticker":"claude-5-released-by","slug":"claude-5-released-by","title":"Claude 5 released by…?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. \n\nClaude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-5-released-by-JDewQT893n65.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-5-released-by-JDewQT893n65.jpg","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-08-07T20:45:08.401678Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T19:09:24Z","volume":4486624.930309004,"volume_24hr":272832.0425860001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":63.26947784423828,"normalized_volume":51.513858795166016,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":529703.788577,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"103648","slug":"claude-5","label":"Claude 5"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"},{"id":"104801","slug":"mythos","label":"Claude Mythos"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2026","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.04600000000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":38771.356441000185,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T19:30:09.948661Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T19:30:09.948661Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-by","chart_24h":[200263.66193999993,202080.09511399994,198353.78772099994,201938.1510199999,204252.6879919999,211142.5882769999,218553.72415599992,223071.97738599993,225830.65164599995,229060.75547499993,238681.42434699996,271743.7991339999,281298.62130500004,273032.0425860001,272832.0425860001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"57711","ticker":"largest-company-end-of-june-712","slug":"largest-company-end-of-june-712","title":"Largest Company end of June?","description":"This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-10T21:54:22.488268Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21374517.815139864,"volume_24hr":202419.52093599996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.28759765625,"normalized_volume":62.54977035522461,"liquidity":1681770.85677,"open_interest":1394302.244821,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy","Business","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"101734","slug":"deepseek","label":"DeepSeek"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"NVIDIA","top_outcome_probability":0.945,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-34981.679648000005,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:15.572349Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:15.572349Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-june-712","chart_24h":[236741.62792399997,232940.66285899997,231383.32870699995,231644.63192299995,230074.89034299998,228984.52162299995,200685.28508599996,204678.52384799998,210168.90032,203702.715519,200433.808168,207617.073208,202908.70121499998,204872.737233,197353.354982,197351.882215,198586.84785,210695.88212899998,212036.52861699997,214644.416984,210706.14331999997,212644.48996499996,212793.97644899995,216282.78212799996,213319.4059669999,212630.68339699993,213053.99216299993,203135.76696699992,213723.56396499992,197765.83521099994,186838.619487,200959.17065699995,201664.46490099994]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"573859","ticker":"claude-mythos-released-on","slug":"claude-mythos-released-on","title":"Claude Mythos released on…?","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic makes \"Claude Mythos\" available to the general public.\n\nAny model whose official name includes “Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X) or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify towards this market’s resolution. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless named Mythos or officially identified by Anthropic as a “Mythos-class” model.\n\nThe qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however,  a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-06-09T01:26:56.765019Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T20:12:27Z","volume":141983.71069299994,"volume_24hr":141983.710693,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.838714599609375,"normalized_volume":30.904556274414062,"liquidity":0.0,"open_interest":16581.939231999997,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"anthropic"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"104184","slug":"rewards-200-4pt5-20","label":"rewards 200, 4.5, 20"},{"id":"104801","slug":"mythos","label":"Claude Mythos"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"On or prior to June 9","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.29500000000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":65663.75737899999,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T20:13:45.291593Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T20:13:45.291593Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T01:17:41.766602Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-on","chart_24h":[28609.506506,32800.824936000005,35638.879813,37642.324671,41092.312731,43446.30345,50609.673888,56834.454192000005,60444.367507,70407.665728,76220.926467,106608.72275199999,132534.10236299998,138252.25486299998,141983.710693,141983.710693]},{"source":"manifold","id":"n6cEQPd0CQ","ticker":"n6cEQPd0CQ","slug":"whats-the-least-impressive-thing-yo","title":"What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]","description":"OPTIONS RESOLVE YES IF THEY HAPPEN\n\n1 option per person, but if you can credit the prediction about this question to a public person you can add it. Interpret the question the way you find most reasonable. You can explain your choice in the comments!\n\nIMPORTANT: the prediction must be realistically verifiable by me (can involve some searching or simple experiment), @Bayesian, in the event that you are not reachable at time of market close. I will N/A options where this is not the case.\n\nIf abs(your mana net worth) < 5000, I’ll cover the cost of your option if you ping me or DM me. \n\nSome details:\n\nThe spirit of the market is that if an option / benchmark / stated prediction is achieved via methods that would be deemed scientific malpractice, obvious trickery, or deception, it will not count as a valid resolution. For example, \"AI 10x's a portfolio in a year\" would not count if 10 different instances of the AI try the same challenge with their own pot of money and only one of them succeeds, and the other 9 go to 0.\n\nif the task is simple for specialized AI systems to solve today, we can safely assume the intent is to only count chatbot-style systems\n\nInspired by @liron tweet \n\n[tweet]Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified how different types of AI will be considered:\n\nThe market applies to any AI system, not exclusively to LLMs.\n\nHowever, for options that implicitly refer to a specific AI capability (e.g., 'jailbreaking' a chatbot), the market will be judged based on the most competent systems of that relevant type.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how options will be judged based on their phrasing:\n\nIf an option describes a capability, it will be resolved based on whether an AI has that capability, provided it is safe and practical to test.\n\nIf an option describes an action, it will be resolved based on whether an AI actually performs that action.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified their process for determining if an AI has a certain capability:\n\nThe creator will attempt to personally elicit the behavior from a relevant AI system and will also search for public online evidence.\n\nIf evidence of the capability is not found through these methods, it will be concluded that the AI cannot do the action.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the required frequency of an action depends on the context of the option:\n\nFor one-off events, a single occurrence is sufficient for the option to resolve YES.\n\nFor tasks that imply a skill (e.g. mathematical calculations), a single success by random chance is not sufficient. These will require some level of consistency to be demonstrated.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that an option is considered acceptable and verifiable even if it includes a negative constraint on the AI's method, such as requiring a task to be performed without using tools (e.g., without writing and executing code).\n\nUpdate 2025-07-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided an example of how they will interpret options that are ambiguously phrased about the type of AI.\n\nIf an option is broad enough to include any AI, the creator may test it against very simple systems.\n\nFor example, for an option involving 'learning', a simple database AI memorizing information could be considered sufficient to meet the criteria, causing the option to resolve YES.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that the distinction between an AI's capability in text versus in speech is an important one that will be considered during resolution.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that the duration of the verification process is a factor in whether an option is considered realistically testable. Options that require a long period to verify (e.g., one year) are considered unverifiable and will be resolved to N/A.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer involving an AI outperforming human forecasters, the creator has clarified their approach to such ambiguous claims:\n\nPhrasings like \"better than human experts\" are considered hard to verify due to ambiguity (e.g., better than the worst, average, or best expert?).\n\nA more concrete and verifiable benchmark would be required for resolution. The creator suggested a possibility could be comparing forecasting bots against human averages on a platform like Metaculus.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has resolved a specific answer to N/A, stating that its meaning \"changed too much\" during a discussion in the comments. This indicates that other answers may be resolved to N/A if their definition is significantly altered after being submitted.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer involving an AI performing a task in “some area”, the creator has clarified their interpretation:\n\nThe condition may be considered met if the AI can perform the task in any specific area, even a simple or “economically useless niche”.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer that is difficult for the creator to personally test (e.g., an AI making a large amount of money over a year), the creator has proposed an alternative to resolving it to N/A:\n\nThe resolution can be based on the existence of a credible public report about the event by the market close date.\n\nIf no such report is found, the event will be considered to not have happened (i.e., the answer will resolve NO).\n\nUpdate 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer related to an AI recognizing sarcasm, the creator clarified that answers may be considered too ambiguous for verification if they do not specify the modality to be tested (e.g., text, voice, or both).\n\nUpdate 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about how regulatory limitations will be judged, the creator has clarified:\n\nOptions that are limited by regulation are acceptable.\n\nTo make the resolution dependent on an AI's legal status to perform a task, the option should be phrased explicitly, for example, \"can legally do X\".\n\nOtherwise, the option will be judged based on the AI's technical capability to perform the task, ignoring regulatory constraints.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer involving financial returns, the creator clarified how they will assess the validity of a success:\n\nA single attempt by a single entity (e.g., a lab) that succeeds will generally be counted for resolution, unless the creator deems it suspicious.\n\nThis is in contrast to the existing rule where an outcome achieved by only one of many AI instances attempting the same challenge will not be counted.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer involving an AI making a financial return, the creator has clarified their interpretation of specific terms:\n\nAn action is not considered \"independent\" if most of the task is set up for the AI (e.g., being given a pre-stocked vending machine to run).\n\nFor financial returns, the resolution will be based on the absolute return achieved. For example, an AI making a 20% return is a success, even if a market index like the S&P 500 grew by more in the same period.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the process for defining verification criteria for individual answers:\n\nThe creator of an answer can provide input on the verification procedure for their own submission.\n\nThe market creator may agree to add specific verification requirements (e.g., that results must be from a peer-reviewed study) to an individual answer if proposed by that answer's creator.\n\nThe market creator remains the final arbitrator on all resolutions.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an ambiguous answer, the creator has stated their intention to resolve it to N/A.\n\nHowever, they will first invite the answer's submitter to provide a more detailed and verifiable version to avoid this resolution.\n\nUpdate 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer \"teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus\":\n\nResolution will be based on a \"you know it when you see it\" standard\n\nHuman guidance through the kitchen is acceptable (the AI does not need to one-shot infer where everything goes)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-20T04:26:16.839000Z","end_date":"2027-07-20T04:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72010.30160716103,"volume_24hr":25040.36092989299,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.188880920410156,"normalized_volume":46.9603271484375,"liquidity":4500.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai-impacts","ai","technical-ai-timelines","openai","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:48:22.890817Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:48:22.890817Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/whats-the-least-impressive-thing-yo","chart_24h":[16.551740621801557,26.551740621801557,30146.829007108652,30156.829007108652,25030.36092989299]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXALIENS-27","ticker":"KXALIENS-27","slug":"KXALIENS-27","title":"Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-05T06:00:00Z","end_date":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25632682.689999998,"volume_24hr":173271.4,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.985809326171875,"normalized_volume":76.62873840332031,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":11116954.89,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before Jan 20, 2029","top_outcome_probability":0.26,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1589.4700000000003,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:09:56.003784Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:09:56.003784Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist/kxaliens-27","chart_24h":[371688.3,371764.95999999996,366485.77999999997,367614.02999999997,362698.24,358843.69,358108.56,350480.5,348560.07999999996,363121.08,368137.81999999995,368389.67000000004,399613.94,401604.54,397358.27,395622.02,395915.06999999995,396556.13,302971.39,301742.72000000003,302433.44,296574.14999999997,290318.73,293067.13,293882.83,285174.32,288184.36,288655.05,304448.11,305035.47000000003,304827.74,303575.91000000003,301304.83,302019.0,304271.85,304699.2,304875.48,302694.68]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"307967","ticker":"spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap","slug":"spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap","title":"SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap","description":"This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-25T22:18:01.397455Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":2724448.0372730014,"volume_24hr":93745.22395799999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.93049621582031,"normalized_volume":48.213069915771484,"liquidity":260668.16617,"open_interest":243543.45196800004,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"1325","slug":"space","label":"Space"},{"id":"103796","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-100","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"2.0T-2.5T","top_outcome_probability":0.48,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":780.8349679999974,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:49.667242Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:49.667242Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap","chart_24h":[61055.045745999996,59441.481043,60030.744982,60838.278014999996,63297.006676,67034.700111,66300.740034,67775.000157,68461.528807,65633.682968,77919.12596599999,76930.55972800001,70933.08992900001,75042.15307100001,76731.612372,76653.128578,77620.754755,79598.311779,79710.625296,76991.759152,77358.378987,78141.338987,79123.41632,79433.445519,80717.845519,78648.013032,79114.004032,83839.626609,86808.859161,90286.193807,93360.29694599999,93195.22763299999,93745.22395799999]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ESzghSqnz9","ticker":"ESzghSqnz9","slug":"what-will-be-announced-in-tomorrows-Is8hQO6pUQ","title":"What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]","description":"Resolves N/A if Direct is canceled (delays OK)\n\n[image]To count as an \"announcement\", must include substantial new information. For example, a new Metroid Prime game being officially announced beforehand, with this being repeated at the Direct, would not count. However, if more details about the game were announced at the Direct, this would count even if it were announced beforehand.\n\nAll answers will be up to my interpretation, though I may ask the community or option adders for clarification\n\nPlease feel free to ask me for clarification on various options, I know this description is vague due to me making it quickly.\n\nA streaming title (e.g. RDR2) is to be treated as a port for market resolution purposes.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-06-08T14:06:18.616000Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T15:07:54.857000Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T15:07:54.857000Z","volume":20508.162995304552,"volume_24hr":20939.115271095183,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.291866302490234,"normalized_volume":37.00584030151367,"liquidity":1700.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":["entertainment","technology-default","gaming","nintendo","internet"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Deltarune Chapter 5","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.20557599999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":819.6570687518533,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T15:18:04.919864Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T15:18:04.919864Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T13:18:04.580894Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Kraalnaxx/what-will-be-announced-in-tomorrows-Is8hQO6pUQ","chart_24h":[6041.235424478534,6173.5542513998425,8844.959749518503,20939.115271095183]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"573830","ticker":"claude-mythos-arena-debut","slug":"claude-mythos-arena-debut","title":"Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first Claude Mythos model added to the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the Coding leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard whose official name includes “Mythos” will qualify. A model whose official name does not include “Mythos” may also qualify if Anthropic officially and unambiguously identifies it as a “Mythos-class” model or substantially similar Mythos variant. Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Opus, or another non-Mythos variant will not qualify unless Anthropic separately provides such official Mythos identification.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T01:18:00.134633Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":89990.781957,"volume_24hr":85306.194339,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.06181335449219,"normalized_volume":28.574434280395508,"liquidity":53721.8674,"open_interest":30220.424025,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"anthropic"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"104801","slug":"mythos","label":"Claude Mythos"},{"id":"104752","slug":"debut","label":"Debut"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"104426","slug":"coding","label":"Coding"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1520+","top_outcome_probability":0.705,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.04999999999999993,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":31296.051675000002,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:03:02.086665Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:03:02.086665Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T01:17:41.766602Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-arena-debut","chart_24h":[4684.587618,9428.058713,10210.462967,11637.464666,17980.579974,19750.133442000002,25299.449275,32645.208846,33541.684178,34250.203742,37222.241812,37972.121812,41104.546254,45052.318764,48199.232093,62035.516542,62432.028011,63939.168011,64963.298011,69558.876941,72749.99111599999,78232.00490799999,80278.540499,81917.750229,82096.08694899999,82534.34352499999,82672.77557499999,81109.17764699999,81868.376548,80240.019603,82042.970754,82402.384123,85296.096038]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"500753","ticker":"will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","slug":"will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","title":"Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-19T05:15:25.955156Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1365246.1955500003,"volume_24hr":58707.047995,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.69130325317383,"normalized_volume":43.82168960571289,"liquidity":261483.09255,"open_interest":599397.298385,"categories":["Finance","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"104970","slug":"privates","label":"Privates"},{"id":"662","slug":"llm","label":"llm"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"anthropic"},{"id":"104108","slug":"dario-amodei","label":"Dario Amodei"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"↑$1.1T","top_outcome_probability":0.9465,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0040000000000000036,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-240.91506699999994,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:18.827416Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:18.827416Z","added_at":"2026-05-19T05:19:10.300636Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","chart_24h":[17145.87602,17140.87602,17392.801867,17375.621866999998,17025.663159,19502.937746,20369.017804,20369.017804,20803.583066,19184.302018,19019.889797,18974.859797,18539.531325,18633.809101,18550.099101,18804.157902,19107.920758,18419.970214,20315.320514,21042.000514,21079.698923,21109.258085,65122.118085,65395.646007,65402.016007,65406.026531,65555.415271,65555.415271,65555.415271,65592.13329,65817.413554,66041.25133,58757.047995]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"528064","ticker":"which-company-has-the-best-math-ai-model-end-of-june","slug":"which-company-has-the-best-math-ai-model-end-of-june","title":"Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/math-d67c0ea7f4.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/math-d67c0ea7f4.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T22:53:43.808791Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":190808.03389499997,"volume_24hr":54818.553661,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.085418701171875,"normalized_volume":32.46358108520508,"liquidity":126870.43581,"open_interest":28773.466545999996,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"},{"id":"102251","slug":"math","label":"Math"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":0.435,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.135,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":14937.887735999999,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:31.715844Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:31.715844Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T22:57:00.730543Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-math-ai-model-end-of-june","chart_24h":[32168.322624999997,34297.089879,35594.498137999995,36182.403922,36410.865831,36564.899716,35759.440891,35979.040899,35991.416311,39950.210751,52171.933736,52938.14528800001,53856.182613000004,57667.518615,60920.256896,67102.876653,71301.173979,74687.911823,75174.67791500001,75849.06574,77043.92574,77448.67563200001,69152.18087899999,68453.075599,64352.202529,63733.475816000006,56822.44904300001,56644.126711000004,56659.829741,56753.835233000005,54413.972813,54960.199523,54818.553661]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LhlNpLyA2h","ticker":"LhlNpLyA2h","slug":"claude-mythos-anthropic-release-dat","title":"Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date","description":"Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Mythos, will count for the purpose of this market.\n\nThe model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.\n\nSee also:\n\n@NU2IyqRq0u \n\n@LhlNpLyA2h (this market)\n\n@8AyI5Np5yl \n\n@OchSUnInIq \n\n@cgl2IP0yIC \n\n@cstO2OAIhZ \n\n@LU5RqqqEuA \n\n@t5Eh629zRE \n\n@2OzL6Q56y8 \n\n@IZO2UZgUNO \n\n@2CqdhIO9cU \n\n@6SLuEUSN2g ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-29T08:54:30.730000Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T18:28:42.590000Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T18:28:42.590000Z","volume":39678.86663918112,"volume_24hr":12841.4091864726,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.278900146484375,"normalized_volume":42.08903121948242,"liquidity":1100.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["anthropic","claude","ai-model-releases","technology-default","ai"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before June 16 2026","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.10999999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":849.0561208431764,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:52:04.059118Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T18:52:04.059118Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/claude-mythos-anthropic-release-dat","chart_24h":[2372.739874875607,2323.287530929893,2401.0088761863403,2391.0088761863403,2392.0088761863403,2425.4038289512087,9480.271446995861,9675.271446995861,12868.705514649424,12841.4091864726]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXLLM1-26DEC31","ticker":"KXLLM1-26DEC31","slug":"KXLLM1-26DEC31","title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-01T15:00:00Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5271207.22,"volume_24hr":76699.36,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.937591552734375,"normalized_volume":63.0786018371582,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":3516987.59,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Claude","top_outcome_probability":0.715,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.04799999999999993,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":11945.08,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:45:16.963007Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:45:16.963007Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026/kxllm1-26dec31","chart_24h":[35979.32,36127.2,37777.69,37665.57,36848.409999999996,35009.03,34990.62,34952.369999999995,34330.65,33259.7,33449.46,28251.43,30336.07,53978.59,63685.43,65284.33,66204.96,70508.69,73358.67,72561.39,78917.5,79393.58,77758.02,77084.6,77057.79000000001,77367.32,78055.52,77291.55,76285.91,75943.31999999999,75230.06,74654.84,74467.94,75870.11,75624.28,76177.3,76282.3,76699.36]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LppqdEh6NP","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-0zsApq8Slq","title":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before June 16th 2026?","description":"Reports say spacex will be IPOed on June 12th. Will Elon become a trillionaire by mid June?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nA trillionaire is defined as an individual with a net worth of $1 trillion or more. This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's net worth reaches $1 trillion USD or higher at any point before June 16th, 2026. Resolution will be determined by tracking his net worth through major wealth indices including the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and Forbes Real Time Billionaires list (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/). \n\nIf one or both of these show he is a trillionaire, resolves yes.\n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-20T22:19:54.040000Z","end_date":"2026-06-16T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96367.12933492263,"volume_24hr":10911.524004148152,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.66530227661133,"normalized_volume":49.438777923583984,"liquidity":1010.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.77,"spread":null,"top_outcome":null,"top_outcome_probability":null,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":"2026-05-31T18:59:31.487717Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Mochi/will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-0zsApq8Slq","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"104392","ticker":"what-will-spacexs-public-ticker-be","slug":"what-will-spacexs-public-ticker-be","title":"What will SpaceX's public ticker be?","description":"This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market.\n\nIf a ticker used by SpaceX in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if SpaceX uses a ticker symbol of $MARS.A or $MARSA, this market will resolve to $MARS).\n\nIf SpaceX announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $MARS.A and $MARS.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until SpaceX’s first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf SpaceX IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nNote: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-13T21:55:50.740372Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7026033.398466032,"volume_24hr":41429.214133,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.64899444580078,"normalized_volume":54.57502746582031,"liquidity":388512.40015,"open_interest":430253.234878,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other (incl $SPCX)","top_outcome_probability":0.9975,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4149.285133000001,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-spacexs-public-ticker-be","chart_24h":[36311.888929999994,36446.250015,38617.456014999996,38615.345015,38615.232848,38585.151848,38585.561848000005,38564.05418100001,38530.85968100001,38541.36834700001,41837.36634700001,41850.171847000005,15741.070622000003,15552.377751000004,14648.670417000003,14647.641417000003,14754.685750000002,14753.141750000003,14749.429750000003,14751.590750000003,14462.728500000003,46812.2705,46479.11068,46137.460779,46133.280779,43612.683529,43516.489529,42528.258029,42144.578029000004,41727.980029,41502.369529,41315.630529,41429.214133]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"425249","ticker":"gpt-5pt6-released-by","slug":"gpt-5pt6-released-by","title":"GPT-5.6 released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n \nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T19:14:38.454979Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":775504.40879,"volume_24hr":38539.966866999996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.03034210205078,"normalized_volume":40.383079528808594,"liquidity":47264.284,"open_interest":136904.54438500002,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"473","slug":"gpt","label":"gpt"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.9725,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02750000000000008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-199.56696299999567,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:05.341958Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:05.341958Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-5pt6-released-by","chart_24h":[76978.220684,76617.131101,78191.001933,75374.453055,75554.81691800001,75235.900785,73858.94756200002,72861.260897,71803.25352500001,71623.67583100002,71718.423995,73117.036889,81243.20137099999,77247.45509599999,78153.461822,80229.34108199998,81198.84045799999,79646.41998899999,84044.001406,83853.94316999998,82653.17245299999,82737.16814099999,81603.220139,82359.256328,82709.07217300001,81064.391069,49966.463266000006,47774.123316000005,44010.99076,44186.144039,40141.341063,38793.390848,38799.966866999996]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"98374","ticker":"spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-lowest-strikes","slug":"spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-lowest-strikes","title":"SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)","description":"This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-06T01:34:37.744882Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4019410.2140360014,"volume_24hr":37668.193251,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.835418701171875,"normalized_volume":50.776824951171875,"liquidity":486615.81338,"open_interest":283343.73197,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1T+","top_outcome_probability":0.993,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-3082.980125,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-lowest-strikes","chart_24h":[9542.462028,7141.919924,7133.159881,7112.260215,6843.9667150000005,6835.476715000001,7836.147550000001,7716.292717,7243.0838300000005,7200.0141300000005,7216.471204,12498.210371,12185.076606999999,11682.479003999999,11673.389796,11676.579313999999,11125.480171,8963.705485,8968.556485000001,8970.058485,8925.90265,8924.32865,8920.896975,39889.107975,39892.128975,39883.698175,39910.78174699999,39911.359459,39305.771197999995,39264.353198,39292.334918,39314.22825099999,37668.193251]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"500558","ticker":"will-spacexs-valuation-hit-by-june-30","slug":"will-spacexs-valuation-hit-by-june-30","title":"Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceX's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-19T05:09:39.987854Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":504622.92991199996,"volume_24hr":36431.371938,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.55175018310547,"normalized_volume":37.864471435546875,"liquidity":87182.23032,"open_interest":144840.90955300003,"categories":["Finance","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"104970","slug":"privates","label":"Privates"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"1314","slug":"aerospace","label":"aerospace"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"104998","slug":"spaxex","label":"SpaxeX"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"↑$1.75T","top_outcome_probability":0.945,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.016999999999999904,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1769.0511150000004,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:18.827416Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:18.827416Z","added_at":"2026-05-19T05:19:07.529310Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-spacexs-valuation-hit-by-june-30","chart_24h":[19733.546638,21292.476039,21397.438583,19229.157796,18446.000404000002,16108.453004,14258.201882,13956.463713000001,15345.626911,15764.396574,15193.362911,36246.715056,38152.765056,37947.322199999995,37267.765062,37287.731747,36428.918741,36499.165123,37623.042371999996,37647.717697,37357.579706,37385.749521,37546.229521,38304.773175999995,37156.555694999995,36704.971506999995,36261.273607999996,36297.079033999995,36634.579033999995,36685.169511,36761.113471,36858.665135999996,36431.371938]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"86832","ticker":"which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027","slug":"which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027","title":"Which companies will be acquired before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nAn announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027-s3oFXGknOa38.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027-s3oFXGknOa38.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-24T17:52:39.396246Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17924587.36848298,"volume_24hr":35871.31641,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.4204216003418,"normalized_volume":61.25185012817383,"liquidity":87585.55072,"open_interest":98870.739643,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"93","slug":"prediction-markets","label":"Prediction Markets"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"102691","slug":"acquisitions","label":"Acquisitions"},{"id":"101779","slug":"buy","label":"buy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Cursor","top_outcome_probability":0.88,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-218.71997399999998,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027","chart_24h":[1081.401688,1228.272579,1211.109027,1191.662578,1196.551468,1738.88249,11881.624731000002,26056.95825,29077.363867000004,34609.047771000005,34769.161139,34769.161139,34799.600164,35209.030164,35007.164727,35021.524727,35021.523617,34748.635069,34933.059282,35026.955570000006,35195.65557,35234.081796,35234.081796,35303.407493,35704.069392000005,35739.299392,35739.299392,35777.580184,35777.580184,35810.230184,35849.88641,35849.88641,35849.88641]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"556131","ticker":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july","slug":"which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july-299","title":"Which company has best AI model end of July?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-04T18:06:43.162649Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60844.341695,"volume_24hr":34453.436074,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.079463958740234,"normalized_volume":26.647329330444336,"liquidity":371851.28577,"open_interest":12495.646555,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":0.865,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5369.819219000001,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:43.033581Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:43.033581Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T18:25:17.592402Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july-299","chart_24h":[12224.790603,14803.584316,14803.584316,14803.584316,14803.584316,14893.764316,28909.180532,28909.180532,28921.180532,28655.109102000002,28645.109102000002,28645.109102000002,29481.945503,29589.285503,29588.855503,26802.448995000002,30098.577417,32982.467417,32961.837417,32931.837417,32983.921521,33432.121521,33525.931043,33525.931043,33361.150661,33351.233386,38153.173386,36200.708141,36305.018141,36097.018141,36118.088141,36118.088141,34453.436074]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"488268","ticker":"when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released","slug":"when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released","title":"When will GPT-5.6 be released?","description":"This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-16T00:29:27.726015Z","end_date":"2026-06-28T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":114530.71054900001,"volume_24hr":29094.142992,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.66436004638672,"normalized_volume":29.795225143432617,"liquidity":47546.43027,"open_interest":14988.671349,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"473","slug":"gpt","label":"gpt"},{"id":"104184","slug":"rewards-200-4pt5-20","label":"rewards 200, 4.5, 20"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 15–June 21","top_outcome_probability":0.485,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.13,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4473.597384999999,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:14.414482Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:14.414482Z","added_at":"2026-05-16T00:36:07.463731Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released","chart_24h":[10451.076008,10330.186008,10002.142678,8916.755981,8783.053896,8190.032542999999,7879.487017999999,7879.2170179999985,7912.2170179999985,8262.617017999999,8171.5614639999985,8395.881463999998,6904.0450980000005,6003.574191999999,6224.920526,13189.600526,14017.797203,14661.700869,16911.749075,17232.867825,17300.576522,17440.376522000002,17759.096522,18387.996103,18377.996103,27811.209919,27341.586489999998,26636.319779999998,27130.840891,27191.594164000002,27860.306951000002,28509.386061,29094.142992]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"183726","ticker":"spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes","slug":"spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes","title":"SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)","description":"This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-eMcPLOPUo_Il.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-23T20:43:36.763063Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1387087.7886670022,"volume_24hr":27176.095669,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.10008239746094,"normalized_volume":43.92021179199219,"liquidity":212259.76625,"open_interest":169760.61956,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"1325","slug":"space","label":"Space"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"2.0T+","top_outcome_probability":0.635,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03500000000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-334.2750580000002,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:33.833926Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:33.833926Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes","chart_24h":[31563.942614,31547.692614,31625.582614,31453.675299,32858.841965,32356.811131,32319.599368,32658.211674,32490.121673999998,33309.841674,16167.456833999999,11905.033972,10912.183972,10867.143972,9340.298111,12398.815625,12460.255625,12660.358957999999,12584.168958,12584.168958,12578.968958,16966.214512,16216.924946,16483.087946,16926.905946,16926.905946,16989.400354,16823.212354,16782.045353999998,17882.845354,18085.569532,17759.655141,26535.705669]},{"source":"opinion","id":"7315","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","title":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0x0e1eca1cf907de5c40a22c8bf658e1fb3015019dcef14cb747610d954c018a6f","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-20T04:44:10Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":308924.7525,"volume_24hr":26493.3675,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.114173889160156,"normalized_volume":41.25124740600586,"liquidity":0.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.5,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.389,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":24719.187,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:22:20.380740Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:22:20.380740Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","chart_24h":[0.111,0.111,0.111,0.119,0.112,0.112,0.112,0.114,0.114,0.111,0.118,0.113,0.111,0.5,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"562931","ticker":"best-ai-model-on-june-13","slug":"best-ai-model-on-june-13","title":"Best AI model on June 13?","description":"This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-05T21:06:08.933779Z","end_date":"2026-06-13T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28524.624458,"volume_24hr":22640.393126,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.60773849487305,"normalized_volume":23.108476638793945,"liquidity":48947.96417,"open_interest":13110.555623,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.631,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.3875,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":10190.765019999999,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:47.435337Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:47.435337Z","added_at":"2026-06-05T20:57:14.761619Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-june-13","chart_24h":[3268.284275,3298.284275,3298.284275,4126.275699,4126.275699,4204.125699,4304.4756990000005,4280.769202,4615.1219710000005,4526.891971,4923.492399,5363.191246,6119.805135999999,7028.241079999999,8540.70308,12276.428337,17653.542681,18494.506463,18502.372602,19404.677080999998,19554.789978,20219.070131,21038.288161,21202.618161,21004.778161,21004.778161,21004.485110999998,21006.984111,21311.985411,22205.375645,22272.902251,22274.494605,22741.533126000002]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN","ticker":"KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN","slug":"KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN","title":"How many launches will SpaceX have in June?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-02T00:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":260372.21,"volume_24hr":33958.29,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.38386535644531,"normalized_volume":40.94390106201172,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":140291.38,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Above 10","top_outcome_probability":0.97,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1896.75,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:10:11.881439Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:10:11.881439Z","added_at":"2026-06-02T00:05:34.093972Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-june/kxspacexcount-26jun","chart_24h":[20513.71,20497.71,21014.09,21061.05,21682.07,26193.94,30464.47,30524.260000000002,30578.36,32375.899999999998,31205.89,31193.13,33344.7,29167.86,29152.76,29775.559999999998,29780.41,29745.55,31413.59,31538.23,31652.29,30283.09,30821.53,33259.5,38402.909999999996,35213.29,35029.98,35524.86,34926.31,33974.95,33566.77,33622.15,33678.17,33440.119999999995,33472.79,33804.29,33958.29]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"192962","ticker":"tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30","slug":"tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30","title":"Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30-iEcHeObGGIJl.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30-iEcHeObGGIJl.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-30T00:05:09.892099Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":540974.2724320004,"volume_24hr":19651.407882,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.46914291381836,"normalized_volume":38.266685485839844,"liquidity":58686.2762,"open_interest":251585.24167199997,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"728","slug":"tesla","label":"Tesla"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"1325","slug":"space","label":"Space"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"September 30","top_outcome_probability":0.39,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.044999999999999984,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:41.442583Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:41.442583Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30","chart_24h":[1033.241395,1033.241395,1038.241395,898.401395,931.734727,931.734727,931.734727,931.734727,1491.734727,2601.434727,2600.344727,3104.042593,2973.312593,2973.312593,2396.672593,3751.707828,4215.199765,4211.866433,4211.866433,4219.786433,4220.807882,5129.897882,5129.897882,4989.567882,17671.347882,17671.347882,17671.347882,19611.347882,19611.347882,19651.347882,19649.967882,19651.407882,19651.407882]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"191747","ticker":"anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30","slug":"anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30","title":"Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-march-31-hxpNop_nNE95.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-march-31-hxpNop_nNE95.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-30T05:03:29.185732Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":319489.0816980004,"volume_24hr":19558.019583999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.43111801147461,"normalized_volume":35.274356842041016,"liquidity":15931.78867,"open_interest":31662.708652,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"103648","slug":"claude-5","label":"Claude 5"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"},{"id":"104801","slug":"mythos","label":"Claude Mythos"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"45%+","top_outcome_probability":0.635,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1676.1263410000001,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:41.442583Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:41.442583Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30","chart_24h":[7946.908082,8328.958313,8192.620896999999,9254.387107999999,9010.822355,9000.969603,9035.884856,8936.184856,9118.667927,9029.643012999999,6773.023013,8182.042100999999,12356.253182999999,13887.267328,14151.709743,14556.003609999998,15253.532613999998,16431.863868999997,16203.690690999998,16668.869294999997,16835.352775,17088.812775,19390.542959,19411.458200999998,19374.610243,19419.446505,19061.210413999997,19235.153507,19326.820174999997,19591.533305999998,20225.044514999998,20759.484514999996,20407.399736999996]},{"source":"opinion","id":"2668","ticker":null,"slug":"9pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027","title":"9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 15, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.\n\nAfter a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0xc78d2205640a9e8ebd3f149e0ec61ef55f05ef411b35d7c7aa985d86c14ee7f6","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-19T15:54:33Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4003526.4725,"volume_24hr":19988.799,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.87118148803711,"normalized_volume":59.66570281982422,"liquidity":0.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.271,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.271,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.01100000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":19883.53,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:17:53.653981Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:17:53.653981Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/9pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027","chart_24h":[0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.113,0.271,0.271]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NU2IyqRq0u","ticker":"NU2IyqRq0u","slug":"when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225","title":"Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date","description":"Minor changes to the name, such as 'Claude 5 Sonnet' or 'Claude 5 Opus', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude 5, will count for the purpose of this market.\n\nThe model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.\n\nSee also:\n\n@NU2IyqRq0u (this market)\n\n@LhlNpLyA2h \n\n@8AyI5Np5yl \n\n@OchSUnInIq \n\n@cgl2IP0yIC \n\n@cstO2OAIhZ \n\n@LU5RqqqEuA \n\n@t5Eh629zRE \n\n@2OzL6Q56y8 \n\n@IZO2UZgUNO \n\n@2CqdhIO9cU \n\n@6SLuEUSN2g ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-07-25T18:37:57.203000Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T23:22:32.874000Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T23:22:32.874000Z","volume":474132.64249188727,"volume_24hr":4951.4575420787405,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.23460006713867,"normalized_volume":64.11990356445312,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","ai-model-releases","anthropic","technology-default","claude"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2026-10-01","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:38:46.943382Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T23:38:46.943382Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225","chart_24h":[3200.310283344077,3303.188755403271,3303.188755403271,3453.188755403271,3539.188755403271,4659.188755403271,5006.492941243137,5011.117050080541,5011.4575420787405,4981.4575420787405,4951.4575420787405,4951.4575420787405]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13","ticker":"KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13","slug":"KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13","title":"Top AI model in this week","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-06T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-06-13T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57468.39,"volume_24hr":25469.54,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.18775939941406,"normalized_volume":31.623340606689453,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":44033.380000000005,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"claude-opus-4-6-thinking","top_outcome_probability":0.78,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.15999999999999992,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":12330.95,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:10:23.322916Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:10:23.322916Z","added_at":"2026-06-06T17:12:01.329285Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopmodel/top-ai-model-in-this-week/kxtopmodel-26jun13","chart_24h":[5890.51,5930.8,6185.8,6385.13,6406.91,6307.99,7396.4800000000005,8797.04,9723.91,10217.54,11901.02,15683.47,17654.0,18282.12,19801.45,20104.59,20946.129999999997,20952.76,20901.39,21491.66,23417.53,23181.199999999997,23361.84,23511.9,23373.57,24565.32,24145.32,24092.01,24293.18,24334.780000000002,25388.350000000002,25427.49,25679.49,26171.27,26147.99]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"57708","ticker":"which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june","slug":"which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june","title":"Which company has second best AI model end of June?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-10T21:54:22.505458Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":576727.507978,"volume_24hr":15533.247227,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.61380386352539,"normalized_volume":38.63861083984375,"liquidity":162294.79516,"open_interest":21506.015020000003,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"540","slug":"grok","label":"Grok"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"473","slug":"gpt","label":"gpt"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":0.855,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2972.225796,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:15.572349Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:15.572349Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june","chart_24h":[21168.884646000002,21808.062884,22461.566509,23948.40709,24964.54709,24872.158877,26299.411228,25405.971228000002,25436.778952,25450.878952,25450.878952,30123.678952000002,30246.854906,30066.773908,28379.647586,28379.647586,28370.792548,28265.865466,27789.198801,28264.427295,27579.817295,27308.797025,27317.657025,27317.657025,26491.282025,26509.341766999998,26517.357766999998,27618.978936,27645.004935999998,26392.750655,15005.598461,14362.978461,15551.047227]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXLLM1-26JUN13","ticker":"KXLLM1-26JUN13","slug":"KXLLM1-26JUN13","title":"Best AI this week","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-06T17:00:00Z","end_date":"2026-07-14T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":82746.76,"volume_24hr":23400.96,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.552764892578125,"normalized_volume":33.76219177246094,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":70465.24,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Claude","top_outcome_probability":0.98,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1010.9200000000001,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:10:23.322916Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:10:23.322916Z","added_at":"2026-06-06T17:12:01.329285Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1/best-ai-this-week/kxllm1-26jun13","chart_24h":[20236.7,20781.100000000002,21969.07,22043.27,24283.95,24252.83,24339.88,23817.350000000002,25078.93,25583.73,25470.530000000002,25197.2,26025.5,25512.94,27682.29,27443.11,28925.13,29630.54,26991.829999999998,26093.35,25467.9,25446.079999999998,25289.9,25379.36,24968.86,25748.03,25853.010000000002,26233.89,25743.190000000002,22833.46,23784.62,24529.19,24915.530000000002,24530.02,23489.53,23357.16,23202.48,23406.0]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"68543","ticker":"openai-ipo-by","slug":"openai-ipo-by","title":"OpenAI IPO by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. 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It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:47:22.898000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12252908.100154236,"volume_24hr":4421.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.223079681396484,"normalized_volume":100.0,"liquidity":20916.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.329777,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","top_outcome_probability":0.329777,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.029588999999999976,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-824.5632275044572,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","chart_24h":[0.300188,0.300188,0.301702,0.301702,0.300398,0.30055,0.30055,0.30055,0.30055,0.30058,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.329777,0.329777,0.329777,0.329777]},{"source":"manifold","id":"7lVceaptya1GPlGaeEWJ","ticker":null,"slug":"will-good-quality-personalised-ai-n","title":"Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?","description":"I'm imagining that I ask an LLM or similar AI system \"write me a novel of [number] pages, in the [genre] genre, set in [setting] featuring [type of characters], and dealing with [themes]\". Possibly even something like \"in the style of [author or mashup of authors]\".\n\nWhen I say \"good quality\" that's just my subjective judgement. It needs to suit my tastes, it doesn't need to be up with my favourite books, but I need to enjoy it, think it was a good use of my time to read it, and not just be pushing through to the end so I can resolve this market. My tastes aren't especially refined. I normally read books between 300 and 1000 pages so I'll probably be looking for books in that range. \n\nWhen I say \"instant and cheap\" I mean something like within an hour and for approximately the cost of a normal book. If you think the precise details of either of these are important, let me know and I'll set some definite criteria. I expect it'll be obvious one way or the other. \n\nIf such a service becomes available before the close date, I'll read a couple of examples and judge if I think they're good quality. If I don't feel the bar has been met by 2027 end, I might have to wait a month or two to give me a chance to read a couple of the best books 2027-end could generate. I'll try to resolve as quickly as I reasonably can, but I'm not the fastest reader and if the quality isn't obviously good then I might need to read more than one to be happy with my judgement. \n\nI'm not wedded to the format of my example prompt above. But it needs to be natural language (or at least very user friendly) and quite short. For example, maybe you could get something with one reasonable length paragraph, or maybe you can get something a bit more personalised in two or three paragraphs. Again, if anybody would feel more comfortable with a more quantitative criterion let me know and I'll think about it. \n\nI won't bet in this market, since it's so subjective. \n\nUpdate 2025-05-01 (PST): - Resolution Focus: The market is about whether personalized AI novels can be produced to a basic level of competence, rather than surpassing human authors. 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The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ipos-in-2025-KrATqO4tCGa9.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ipos-in-2025-KrATqO4tCGa9.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-12T21:32:11.064745Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6506997.239160994,"volume_24hr":14056.070482000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.83895492553711,"normalized_volume":54.04498291015625,"liquidity":131763.8085,"open_interest":382899.404048,"categories":["Finance","Business","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"SpaceX","top_outcome_probability":0.9995,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-9325.063702999998,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027","chart_24h":[29122.278823999997,31454.392157,31290.109508999998,33718.495542,33607.055541999995,33908.805541999995,34168.336462,34658.956461999995,34175.692777,34188.38729099999,34673.727808999996,34642.790603999994,34585.690603999996,35519.770604,36079.57810399999,36078.638104,34780.283103999995,26091.594319,23098.569670999997,23210.407493,22995.959977,21927.172619,22096.120162,20086.078608,20580.770658,19826.740896,19848.891346,19896.050488,15625.219999,14958.219999,15063.806664000002,14983.460482,14062.050482]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"575319","ticker":"spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949","slug":"spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949","title":"SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. 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