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The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:47:22.898000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13693791.688238325,"volume_24hr":4929.564592112459,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.25433349609375,"normalized_volume":100.0,"liquidity":20916.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.285583,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","top_outcome_probability":0.285583,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.019422999999999968,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1284.4170177018768,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","chart_24h":[0.26616,0.26616,0.266254,0.270698,0.270698,0.27014,0.267307,0.267307,0.267307,0.267307,0.267307,0.267307,0.267307,0.267307,0.266759,0.266595,0.266595,0.266595,0.266595,0.27,0.280125,0.280125,0.27837,0.27837,0.274336,0.285116,0.285267,0.283585,0.286487,0.286487,0.285583]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ipq49s5f07","ticker":null,"slug":"will-artificial-intelligence-solve-34vdtjoulu","title":"Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium\nPrize Problem before 2035?","description":"Background\n\nThe Millennium Prize Problems are seven legendary open questions in mathematics announced by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) in year 2000, each carrying a US $1 million reward for the first correct solution. Grigori Perelman’s 2003 proof of the Poincaré Conjecture settled one of them, leaving six unsolved challenges:\n\nBirch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture\n\nHodge Conjecture\n\nNavier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness\n\nP vs NP\n\nRiemann Hypothesis\n\nYang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap\n\nA single AI system producing a formally accepted proof for any one of these six problems would represent a historic milestone for both mathematics and artificial-intelligence research.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nEvidence required\n\nA peer‑reviewed paper in a recognised scientific journal or an officially accepted CMI submission must demonstrate that the proof was generated by an AI system and that it fully resolves one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.\n\nAI autonomy\n\nHumans may design, train, fine‑tune or prompt the model, but the complete logical argument must be produced autonomously by the AI.\n\nHuman assistance is limited to setting up the architecture, curating publicly available training data and verifying formatting; no new mathematical insights may be added by people.\n\nTiming of Resolution\n\nThe market resolves YES if at any time before Jan 1, 2035 a qualifying proof that satisfies Criteria 1 (Evidence required) and Criteria 2 (AI autonomy) becomes publicly available.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/yaqubali/4j9dqbogzp.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-11T05:58:51.464000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20391.21849854128,"volume_24hr":4715.56385605954,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.61670684814453,"normalized_volume":36.46478271484375,"liquidity":3000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.909328,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium\nPrize Problem before 2035?","top_outcome_probability":0.909328,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.106317,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4190.56385605954,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/will-artificial-intelligence-solve-34vdtjoulu","chart_24h":[0.803011,0.803011,0.803011,0.803011,0.803011,0.803011,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.855903,0.855903,0.854885,0.854885,0.854885,0.896186,0.896186,0.896186,0.896186,0.896186,0.896186,0.896186,0.909328,0.909328,0.909328]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79041","ticker":"largest-company-end-of-december-2026","slug":"largest-company-end-of-december-2026","title":"Largest Company end of December 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible 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millenium problem will be solved first?\n","description":"Will resolve as YES when a problem is solved.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AbhinavSrinivas%2Fa1473e1d86b9.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-17T21:26:14.014000Z","end_date":"9999-02-25T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11796.884949246962,"volume_24hr":3491.1761642535803,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.385623931884766,"normalized_volume":32.553733825683594,"liquidity":1230.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["futurism","millenium-prize-problems","competition-math","mathematics","science-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Navier-Stokes 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So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the \"so bad it's good\" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.\n\nMain market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Shump%2F79b193564d31.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-28T04:34:11.616000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":291423.6158587504,"volume_24hr":3389.5394348928635,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.97808837890625,"normalized_volume":58.63164520263672,"liquidity":1640.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.78,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?","top_outcome_probability":0.78,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d","chart_24h":[0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78]},{"source":"manifold","id":"GNDa8dhsyP5NIX0gLZa7","ticker":null,"slug":"will-at-least-one-of-the-remaining","title":"Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?","description":"Millenium Problems\n\nThis market will be resolved to:\n\nYES -- if by the 1st of January, 2030 a proof recognized by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published\n\nNO -- otherwise","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FUjcLjYLz0e.png?alt=media&token=fc501b21-b5a9-4222-9268-744c96d908d7","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-28T15:09:16.344000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T21:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33559.920100654905,"volume_24hr":3290.0756455162177,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.56875991821289,"normalized_volume":40.21834945678711,"liquidity":1155.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.925661,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.925661,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.1697329999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3040.0756455162177,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Inosen_Infinity/will-at-least-one-of-the-remaining","chart_24h":[0.755928,0.755928,0.896942,0.896942,0.896942,0.896942,0.896942,0.95175,0.95175,0.95175,0.962559,0.962559,0.962559,0.916982,0.925661]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"727186","ticker":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-september-20260717143435868","slug":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-september-20260717143435868","title":"Which company has the best AI model end of September?","description":"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/alien+head.jpeg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-25T18:05:19.721000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66714408.64881102,"volume_24hr":97096.959748,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.8065299987793,"normalized_volume":73.84376525878906,"liquidity":1064188.94731,"open_interest":8643393.959085999,"categories":["Politics","Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"71","slug":"aliens","label":"Aliens"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.0385,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":39213.247911000006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:44.354419Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:44.354419Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","chart_24h":[101134.018096,105362.88466,106376.222293,106626.701768,106517.691768,42183.94796499999,43437.267964999985,28885.607965,28904.845701000002,29466.755701000002,29779.565701000003,29771.745700999993,30537.047987,31099.640702,31258.27281,32868.94384199999,30226.409557999996,30003.239665,30003.239665,42210.577955,84558.620957,85203.553925,85226.349715,85247.129715,98822.39392300001,98721.186494,99288.50542199999,101191.35197899998,100818.68161999999,100808.61112799999,99427.73850099999,98985.425865,97292.438748]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"745118","ticker":"will-cmi-declare-a-millennium-prize-problem-solved-by-20260723160122979","slug":"will-cmi-declare-a-millennium-prize-problem-solved-by-20260723160122979","title":"Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI.\n\nA Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.\n\nA published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-before-the-end-of-2025-o952nXYzhLWZ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-before-the-end-of-2025-o952nXYzhLWZ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-24T21:07:47.318498Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":161037.768069,"volume_24hr":86463.12253000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.68614959716797,"normalized_volume":32.703582763671875,"liquidity":155978.7026,"open_interest":111801.85396400001,"categories":["Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.725,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.19999999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4668.95395,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:20:45.008707Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:20:45.008707Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T21:47:19.039543Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-cmi-declare-a-millennium-prize-problem-solved-by-20260723160122979","chart_24h":[3848.343842,3846.383842,3808.410982,3643.690982,3643.460982,3658.460982,3683.460982,3683.460982,3683.460982,3683.460982,3683.460982,3683.460982,3683.460982,3694.4909820000003,3694.4909820000003,3644.4909820000003,3644.490982,16609.440982,21101.459982,40395.821145,42622.87220600001,42261.824067,42709.186086,55075.45865100001,57945.94821,58026.81487700001,60358.805307,63386.190159,63744.952144,63744.952144,84090.14946900001,84249.982803,86463.12253000001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"103468","ticker":"will-apple-release-a-foldable-iphone-before-2027","slug":"will-apple-release-a-foldable-iphone-before-2027","title":"Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-apple-release-a-foldable-iphone-in-2025-CLPiPg-n08y-.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-apple-release-a-foldable-iphone-in-2025-CLPiPg-n08y-.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-12T18:29:58.307000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":620538.670806,"volume_24hr":65128.307917,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.144229888916016,"normalized_volume":40.476165771484375,"liquidity":52132.80243,"open_interest":288479.825872,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"104548","slug":"kpis","label":"KPIs"},{"id":"106192","slug":"apple-event","label":"Apple Event"},{"id":"1097","slug":"apple","label":"Apple"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big 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smoothness","top_outcome_probability":0.904596,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.36444299999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2246.688701367805,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:16:11.042793Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:16:11.042793Z","added_at":"2026-09-05T15:07:04.792993Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/which-millennium-prize-problem-will-c4fce2048343","chart_24h":[245.52125748629325,57.40166981077121,57.40166981077121,1995.5458654447355,1995.5458654447355,2306.6887013678056,2291.6887013678056,2341.6887013678056]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CtLp2yySsd","ticker":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":"when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","description":"The dates of the last few flights are:\n\n\nFlight 7: 2025-01-16\n\nFlight 8: 2025-03-06\n\nFlight 9: 2025-05-27\n\nFlight 10: 2025-08-26\n\nFlight 11: 2025-10-13\n\nFlight 12: 2026-05-22\n\nFlight 13: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-13-happen \n\nFlight 15: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-15-happen-9sz26lROnl ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T19:37:03.388000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":192342.53062923832,"volume_24hr":2295.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.737876892089844,"normalized_volume":54.82332992553711,"liquidity":19000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["space","commercial-spaceflight","rockets","starship-launch-party","spacex"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 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credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/largest-company-eoy-KS99l6lbxfCc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-29T22:44:09.861751Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1492026.076657,"volume_24hr":47568.083038,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.190330505371094,"normalized_volume":45.976261138916016,"liquidity":1022549.0834,"open_interest":331091.337716,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy","Finance","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"NVIDIA","top_outcome_probability":0.9725,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":13131.193801999998,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:20:55.492351Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:20:55.492351Z","added_at":"2026-07-30T01:04:50.037228Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-september-1785358369147","chart_24h":[105932.55891200001,105662.125278,105275.242839,104722.061213,112425.194779,112492.878859,114174.429696,130642.39313,130452.995064,130478.728028,126142.36865599999,125794.564572,125706.941675,125591.734817,125874.776178,125894.335422,125818.824798,131337.072064,133332.21526,134256.127298,141895.313422,141713.995617,143085.871741,142925.652741,143174.133366,139901.769284,139333.131841,52506.55706299999,51645.76351,51623.185177,51593.545177,50521.49445,47568.083038]},{"source":"predict","id":"436935","ticker":"436935","slug":"foldable-iphone-announced-price","title":"Foldable 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe price used for resolution will be the starting price (USD) as first announced by Apple for the lowest-priced configuration of a foldable iPhone in the US market, before taxes, carrier subsidies, trade-in credits, promotional discounts, or bundled services. Prices announced for other regions or for higher storage configurations will not be used. \n\nAny foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify as a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.\n\nIf Apple announces prices for more than one foldable iPhone model, the lowest announced starting price will be used.\n\nIf Apple does not publicly announce a price for a foldable iPhone by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://static.predict.fun/2nd-largest-company-end-of-april-apple","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-07T09:04:00Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9501.050000000001,"volume_24hr":9331.97,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.55938720703125,"normalized_volume":27.849380493164062,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["Tech"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"$2,100+","top_outcome_probability":0.98,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.27,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T15:50:51.200078Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T15:34:13.682611Z","added_at":"2026-09-07T13:20:18.721344Z","url":"https://predict.fun/market/foldable-iphone-announced-price","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,117.1,117.1,128.59,128.59,128.59,128.59,185.41,195.70999999999998,195.70999999999998,306.82,306.82,312.37,5219.889999999999,9331.97]},{"source":"gemini","id":"4021","ticker":"BESTAI26","slug":"best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","title":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","description":"Best AI at the end of 2026?","image":"https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/images/Contract_Image__1__c09cff3c-54fb-42e7-9dcf-e0cc6d6b64d5.avif","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T11:46:32.803000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":199904.0,"volume_24hr":2754.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.52818298339844,"normalized_volume":93.9707260131836,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["AI Models"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Claude","top_outcome_probability":0.61,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T12:37:24.703329Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T12:37:24.703329Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.gemini.com/predictions/BESTAI26/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[4797.0,3447.0,1577.0,1590.0,715.0,2655.0,3453.0,3442.0,2769.0,2754.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"UA9tQII8R0","ticker":"UA9tQII8R0","slug":"august-2026-ai-model-releases-2I5QOgzd9Q","title":"September 2026 AI model releases","description":"This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during September 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership). \n\nSubvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for \"Gemini 3.1 Flash\"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for \"GPT5.5\"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.\n\nPlease ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions. \n\nAlso, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity. \n\n\nNotes:\n\nFor the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. 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Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which matches human capabilities, ASI exceeds them, demonstrating superior problem-solving and inventive skills, advanced learning and adaptive capabilities, and unparalleled reasoning and planning abilities. ASI embodies not only the ability to perform tasks that require human-like intelligence but also the capacity to achieve goals with efficiency and effectiveness far beyond human capabilities. It represents an evolution in AI, where machines are not just equal, but distinctly superior to the best human brains in every field, including scientific understanding, general knowledge, and emotional intelligence.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2029\n\nMarkets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2036 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FVwufL2HvAm.png?alt=media&token=d7ff0a4e-0847-4a2d-82ad-e66158ecc1eb","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-21T15:51:27.064000Z","end_date":"2029-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47014.61920638272,"volume_24hr":1582.0000000000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.979217529296875,"normalized_volume":42.86252212524414,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.052561,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get ASI before 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.052561,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.027439000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1532.0000000000002,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029","chart_24h":[0.08,0.08,0.10501,0.10501,0.10501,0.10501,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561,0.052561]},{"source":"manifold","id":"BKr7KGDSkT6U3dGlqxIk","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8","title":"Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-05T11:03:48.235000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T01:16:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7332176.220123749,"volume_24hr":1558.5866459367987,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.79340744018555,"normalized_volume":92.5417251586914,"liquidity":2582.5,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.045957,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.045957,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.012754000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":429.99117864599066,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T11:17:27.052638Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T11:17:27.052638Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8","chart_24h":[0.058711,0.045899,0.045957,0.045957,0.045957]},{"source":"manifold","id":"S09PzUCuOp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-609shENQnu","title":"Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?","description":"2027 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337\n\nIn line with progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2027? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs.\n\nSystems which are pretrained on human data are allowed.\n\nThe system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator. Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in.\n\n2026 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-CPpOcyROzc\n2028 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-Ls5ugPg6yU\n2029 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-OzAACndlZA","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-26T20:35:21.185000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9282.012151724946,"volume_24hr":1539.1658034286545,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.63744354248047,"normalized_volume":30.910232543945312,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.571314,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.571314,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.17131399999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1025.919203343582,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","added_at":"2026-07-20T07:16:26.068308Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-609shENQnu","chart_24h":[0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45018,0.45018,0.45018,0.45018,0.45018,0.45018,0.45018,0.45018,0.46,0.571314,0.571314]},{"source":"kalshi","id":"KXTOPMODEL-26SEP30","ticker":"KXTOPMODEL-26SEP30","slug":"KXTOPMODEL-26SEP30","title":"Top AI model in September?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T17:30:00Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":157010.06,"volume_24hr":119221.06,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.713924407958984,"normalized_volume":38.925559997558594,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":139463.11,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"claude-fable-5.1-max","top_outcome_probability":0.71,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.13,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":744.0799999999999,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:24:46.185591Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:24:46.185591Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T17:41:23.694586Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopmodel/top-ai-model-in-september/kxtopmodel-26sep30","chart_24h":[2459.68,1432.99,1434.1499999999999,1854.17,1973.27,1726.37,117123.68,117170.27,117208.17,117212.56999999999,117221.51,116656.91,116663.72,116781.70999999999,116783.70999999999,117019.59999999999,116555.59999999999,116562.47,116611.97,116599.93,116640.17,119222.23]},{"source":"manifold","id":"g0pyRzURty","ticker":null,"slug":"rogue-ais-before-2028","title":"Rogue AIs before 2028?","description":"Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028?\n\nThe spirit of this question is trying to operationalize AI agents \"escaping the box\" and becoming free. I'll try to resolve in this spirit. Deliberate release of rogue AIs would still count. Note that this condition doesn't necessarily require AI agents to exfiltrate their own weights.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-31T05:41:28.476000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30126.950862978712,"volume_24hr":1335.015610813501,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.88621139526367,"normalized_volume":39.38975524902344,"liquidity":10510.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technical-ai-timelines","openai","technology-default","ai-impacts","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.70449,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Rogue AIs before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.70449,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.018496999999999986,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1245.8221882927178,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","added_at":"2026-08-31T17:49:27.013260Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/SG/rogue-ais-before-2028","chart_24h":[0.685993,0.684802,0.684802,0.684802,0.700974,0.703221,0.703221,0.703221,0.703221,0.703221,0.703655,0.703655,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.704549,0.70449,0.70449,0.70449,0.70449,0.70449,0.70449,0.70449,0.70449]},{"source":"opinion","id":"89","ticker":"89","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","title":"GPT-6 released by…?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0xa6aa6ed8c1e41f597d9598409a9e6cd93c8b031c06da555c530321e8e53204eb","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T07:12:35Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":"2026-07-01T08:03:59Z","volume":17762155.316,"volume_24hr":12906.189,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.24409866333008,"normalized_volume":67.03951263427734,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Dec 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.57,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-04T03:27:18.125672Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T03:27:18.125672Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/gpt-6-released-by","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"HS8ndzFminW0UN2kRDgq","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-play","title":"In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?","description":"Resolves positively if there is an AI can learn to play randomly selected computer games (shooters, strategy games, flight simulators, etc) at the level of an amateur but not completely incompetent human player, given only a small amount of time (days, not years) for its programmers to connect it properly, and the opportunity to practice for arbitrary (but achievable) amounts of time.\n\nI will resolve this positively if the AI succeeds more than half the time. It's okay if it also has a few games it just can't learn.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQd--dWM6xh.png?alt=media&token=9274576d-49dc-4603-a9db-8a6a9efe8070","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:42:22.602000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40840.825893102236,"volume_24hr":1233.3480919854878,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.92630386352539,"normalized_volume":41.74813461303711,"liquidity":2180.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["scott-alexanders-5-year-predictions","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.812472,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nA model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. 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In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.\n\nA listed company may resolve to \"No\" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-TYvpfXh0KUDU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-TYvpfXh0KUDU.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-02T22:34:41.427627Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5958049.115595,"volume_24hr":20271.295593000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.85968780517578,"normalized_volume":55.36862564086914,"liquidity":774405.6701,"open_interest":636464.284747,"categories":["Finance","Science and Technology","Business"],"tags":[{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"285","slug":"sam-altman","label":"sam altman"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"},{"id":"1325","slug":"space","label":"Space"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"105048","slug":"openai-ipo","label":"OpenAI IPO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":0.5845,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.013000000000000012,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1055.5033580000002,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:40:00.662374Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:40:00.662374Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287","chart_24h":[2216.812456,2191.452456,2143.8424560000003,2120.002456,2118.29013,2123.29013,2137.70013,2137.70013,2146.70013,2146.70013,2146.70013,2146.70013,2146.70013,2146.70013,21398.047938,21851.707938,21851.707938,22022.707938000003,22006.320002000004,20106.757382000003,20056.757382000003,20056.757382000003,20152.697382,20153.787382,20153.787382,20244.717382,20244.717382,20227.402037,20256.982037,20256.982037,20317.985593,20317.985593,20271.295593000003]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"200252","ticker":"openai-ipo-closing-market-cap","slug":"openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-554","title":"OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap","description":"This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-06T23:10:57.249645Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":233378.796459,"volume_24hr":20187.266187,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.810523986816406,"normalized_volume":34.75809860229492,"liquidity":131081.23913,"open_interest":29233.177761000003,"categories":["Finance","Business","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"105048","slug":"openai-ipo","label":"OpenAI IPO"},{"id":"104182","slug":"rewards-100-4pt5-100","label":"rewards 100, 4.5, 100 Deprec"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1.5T+","top_outcome_probability":0.794,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.12050000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5965.839667,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:40:00.662374Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:40:00.662374Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-554","chart_24h":[1409.73,1409.73,1806.63,1756.63,1756.63,1756.63,1756.63,1756.63,1756.63,1756.63,1756.63,1775.321589,1705.321589,1425.321589,1425.321589,14039.184398000001,14334.184398,14040.644398,15016.894398,14816.354398,14746.224398,15146.044398,17905.355347,17835.355347,19885.905347,20016.775347,20026.775347,20173.996187,20173.996187,20033.736187,20064.676187,20150.676187,20150.676187]},{"source":"manifold","id":"HQObM8ZeuU0YQ3HUdGZ2","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346","title":"Will we get AGI before 2028?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2028\n\nMOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)\n\nThis market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI?‌ as its baseline. If that resolves NO for this market's year (and every year earlier), this also resolves NO. If it resolves YES, we dig into the nitty gritty.\n\nPlease see THIS COMMENT from the 2026 market for more guidance about what a YES resolution might look like.\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2028:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-069166147734 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-0434665d77eb \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f3756 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSvCeL2TdPI.png?alt=media&token=e47b3843-c3c6-4dcf-8f23-c31f0f21a49d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-08T19:32:47.087000Z","end_date":"2028-03-03T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":167601.03602167984,"volume_24hr":971.9749838934032,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.104515075683594,"normalized_volume":53.58951187133789,"liquidity":1060.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["agi","ai","technology-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.241674,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.241674,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0008980000000000099,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":426.2472055031566,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:39:35.553287Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346","chart_24h":[0.242572,0.23702,0.23702,0.272926,0.265469,0.269115,0.260332,0.282983,0.206166,0.206166,0.206166,0.206166,0.206166,0.206166,0.206166,0.206166,0.206166,0.236888,0.236888,0.236888,0.236888,0.236888,0.236888,0.236888,0.236888,0.236888,0.272788,0.272788,0.272788,0.272788,0.241674]},{"source":"manifold","id":"7lVceaptya1GPlGaeEWJ","ticker":null,"slug":"will-good-quality-personalised-ai-n","title":"Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?","description":"I'm imagining that I ask an LLM or similar AI system \"write me a novel of [number] pages, in the [genre] genre, set in [setting] featuring [type of characters], and dealing with [themes]\". Possibly even something like \"in the style of [author or mashup of authors]\".\n\nWhen I say \"good quality\" that's just my subjective judgement. It needs to suit my tastes, it doesn't need to be up with my favourite books, but I need to enjoy it, think it was a good use of my time to read it, and not just be pushing through to the end so I can resolve this market. My tastes aren't especially refined. I normally read books between 300 and 1000 pages so I'll probably be looking for books in that range. \n\nWhen I say \"instant and cheap\" I mean something like within an hour and for approximately the cost of a normal book. If you think the precise details of either of these are important, let me know and I'll set some definite criteria. I expect it'll be obvious one way or the other. \n\nIf such a service becomes available before the close date, I'll read a couple of examples and judge if I think they're good quality. If I don't feel the bar has been met by 2027 end, I might have to wait a month or two to give me a chance to read a couple of the best books 2027-end could generate. I'll try to resolve as quickly as I reasonably can, but I'm not the fastest reader and if the quality isn't obviously good then I might need to read more than one to be happy with my judgement. \n\nI'm not wedded to the format of my example prompt above. But it needs to be natural language (or at least very user friendly) and quite short. For example, maybe you could get something with one reasonable length paragraph, or maybe you can get something a bit more personalised in two or three paragraphs. Again, if anybody would feel more comfortable with a more quantitative criterion let me know and I'll think about it. \n\nI won't bet in this market, since it's so subjective. \n\nUpdate 2025-05-01 (PST): - Resolution Focus: The market is about whether personalized AI novels can be produced to a basic level of competence, rather than surpassing human authors. 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It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T21:07:04.528790Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:55:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":645375.2999470001,"volume_24hr":16813.881081,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.33334732055664,"normalized_volume":40.71515655517578,"liquidity":134217.37741,"open_interest":53377.669367,"categories":["Finance","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"102599","slug":"ipo","label":"IPO"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"600","slug":"ipos","label":"IPOs"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105183","slug":"anthropic-ipo","label":"Anthropic IPO"},{"id":"103151","slug":"rewards-200-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"$2.0–$2.25T","top_outcome_probability":0.2245,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.003500000000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":321.82536600000003,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T16:20:20.762488Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T16:20:20.762488Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T21:21:44.379872Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes","chart_24h":[4002.864012,4373.894634,3798.904634,3667.754634,3653.464634,3653.464634,4139.114634,4139.114634,3496.220511,3496.220511,3496.220511,3496.220511,3396.220511,3396.220511,3396.220511,3396.220511,3079.55,3503.25,1641.71,1641.71,1641.71,2635.59,2885.78,3119.68,7263.17,10205.550000000001,10205.55,15757.968281,16765.161081,17097.701081,17181.101081,17181.101081,16813.881081]}],"meta":{"page":1,"page_size":50,"total":1432,"total_pages":29},"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?categories=Science+and+Technology","as_of":"2026-09-08T16:40:01.800907Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"}}