{"items":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"73130","ticker":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:52:17.414000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47282386.32501867,"volume_24hr":685887.4597899998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.06505584716797,"normalized_volume":63.43126678466797,"liquidity":814018.2888,"open_interest":7187263.50916,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.275,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.019999999999999962,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":363865.30303699966,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","chart_24h":[321996.3351570001,304703.2060950001,309766.791948,307240.73286799993,305920.7794899999,320360.7547269999,383938.0198250002,416101.15995300026,469108.38869300025,551072.9338860002,536355.1539320003,538823.2477100003,563898.1153730004,622788.2949080004,610105.3131430002,586847.5076790003,589343.7388530003,593567.1448610004,609211.1495550002,604901.0610720003,604682.2240770003,645843.0331490003,659050.0186080002,658824.0056920003,643419.4006300003,643174.0443390002,702802.4054530002,637514.2896359998,640405.4900829999,649231.0297089998,664235.4108649999,676477.9708249999,673361.0739759998,685887.4597899998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"237598","ticker":"iran-leader-end-of-2026","slug":"iran-leader-end-of-2026","title":"Iran leader end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T00:15:11.057586Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":34734030.361562975,"volume_24hr":367933.8096459999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.17793273925781,"normalized_volume":61.23649215698242,"liquidity":1617546.30279,"open_interest":758284.217162,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"103796","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-100","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Mojtaba Khamenei","top_outcome_probability":0.7525,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.019999999999999907,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-57219.02417199964,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:22.402965Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:22.402965Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[409064.54258799955,409270.02706499957,409424.5415059996,413156.53202999954,413072.8721669995,422341.603186999,456788.7048650004,465016.1917170004,515542.8994640003,516890.6487660004,517401.97830100043,517906.5371310004,519166.9538740004,519563.8838740004,520640.29493200046,511771.723775001,492313.01728200103,485221.877282001,484771.054014001,483608.4327590009,483572.4429030009,483624.69090300094,483936.06451100094,486645.4195110009,486681.11566600093,458822.2927260021,460874.15410000214,438989.6155090015,401490.3056600006,412028.7703190008,402728.40711700014,366637.24119199987,368087.7235419999,367933.8096459999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"45915","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election","slug":"brazil-presidential-election","title":"Brazil Presidential Election","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T20:07:57.760000Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":115755135.39525202,"volume_24hr":354054.728481,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.76343536376953,"normalized_volume":70.02162170410156,"liquidity":9192736.79415,"open_interest":3940933.885157,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101252","slug":"macro-election-2","label":"Macro Election 2"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","top_outcome_probability":0.615,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-6859.497730999992,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","chart_24h":[499089.047864,497048.764976,495546.476009,467118.873922,375416.11243400007,368445.13047400006,297193.315225,287080.549699,286496.61808200006,290129.25257700006,275674.838005,286620.489849,340033.57066300005,311632.507892,292400.499537,286577.71636900003,288996.178093,329263.16373900004,354508.230197,296553.396934,318948.352888,314964.765549,349259.783056,349356.37049400003,359989.819982,366092.982368,350866.316827,351142.39106500003,353172.128799,351328.61518900003,349840.64989700005,350642.068929,354171.694429,354054.728481]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"634802","ticker":"iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","slug":"iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","title":"Iran full airspace closure by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028-7rbGPCHobYvq.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028-7rbGPCHobYvq.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:23:30.308911Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6174689.662393009,"volume_24hr":346035.54436600005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.5170669555664,"normalized_volume":49.65910339355469,"liquidity":79151.8958,"open_interest":452796.804457,"categories":["World"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104129","slug":"close","label":"close"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.48,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.10999999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4791.4412690000045,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:53.537322Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:53.537322Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:39:37.141257Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","chart_24h":[263196.44080399995,261180.19462699996,264100.93815299997,251758.34211099995,258543.93118199997,265206.5191699999,285004.90466899995,286792.177207,314847.5000409999,284270.141969,270724.491767,275757.509419,276485.451314,296890.180545,298404.394885,289906.511977,288154.62374500005,280596.165703,269080.344598,260630.57557900003,265250.09952000005,316579.3831660001,313702.485896,314497.80106,334968.38483100006,337440.7637020001,335958.20401300007,330524.64549400005,338656.7049290001,344459.22406400007,346692.0044100001,360714.6335570001,348004.36679400003,346035.54436600005]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79987","ticker":"next-french-presidential-election","slug":"next-french-presidential-election","title":"Next French Presidential Election","description":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:09:35.811900Z","end_date":"2027-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":115978113.65112576,"volume_24hr":189649.84393900004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":62.20828628540039,"normalized_volume":70.0361328125,"liquidity":11740025.96851,"open_interest":803269.608243,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100282","slug":"french-election","label":"French Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Marine Le Pen","top_outcome_probability":0.308,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009500000000000008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1356.6119880000078,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","chart_24h":[167342.337296,162569.316575,148853.981046,140381.810513,140403.475263,164765.949675,164894.352865,161075.489837,91195.72044700001,100268.41667,105848.152195,106618.376694,104593.12746900001,100801.569161,102579.48728100001,99660.30351400001,97759.40599000001,97908.323193,97794.62285300001,98425.980483,100231.613643,97325.63878400001,95952.71828500001,92018.67567400001,90949.886994,91116.60749400001,92964.37134700001,175629.99041300002,180844.518933,185904.28572300004,190328.71320600004,190383.51607100002,189944.55406700002,189649.84393900004]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31195","ticker":"putin-out-before-2027","slug":"putin-out-before-2027","title":"Putin out as President of Russia by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-06T22:30:10.584000Z","end_date":"2027-06-30T18:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18458354.703889,"volume_24hr":150693.93147300006,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.87665939331055,"normalized_volume":56.85837936401367,"liquidity":1283730.74019,"open_interest":8951441.901531002,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.155,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6318.000363000001,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[64533.66020700001,59105.857607,57272.05422500001,50550.911337,50572.731337,130155.49772900002,134922.84550500003,138844.78672200005,140670.14003600006,149397.24060900006,153022.25060900007,154922.01668000006,161172.50785600004,163153.19785600004,163080.73113500004,163129.39937200004,166050.52731500004,165950.29653300004,166207.02246300006,166315.52000000005,166892.33111000006,163959.90668500005,163792.39668500004,163927.27817400006,164628.60993700006,164666.66993700006,140107.31793800008,140294.75935600008,141300.43334600006,142377.35924400005,141015.06999800005,150329.36147300006,150224.70147300005,150693.93147300006]},{"source":"manifold","id":"PCI956hsth","ticker":null,"slug":"will-something-happen-in-2026","title":"Will something happen in 2026?","description":"This market resolves YES if any one thing from the listed things happens in 2026\n\nLeader Exits\n\nDonald Trump leaves office before end of 2026 (death, resignation, impeachment, removal, etc.)\n\nVladimir Putin leaves office\n\nXi Jinping leaves office\n\nGeopolitical & Unexpected Events\n\nChina invades or blockades Taiwan\n\nEnemy troops on American soil (invasion or combat operations)\n\nUSA men's team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup\n\nBitcoin reaches $1,000,000 USD\n\nOpenAI officially claims AGI achieved internally\n\nNew major pandemic causes widespread flight cancellations (at least 100 international flights canceled)\n\nNuclear bomb detonation above ground\n\nTaylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly break up or divorce\n\nQuantum computing breakthrough (\"Q-Day\") cracks major encryption, causing widespread crypto/market panic\n\nS&P 500 drops >40% from its 2025 peak\n\nSam Altman is out as OpenAI CEO for more than three weeks\n\nWashington, D.C. officially becomes the 51st state\n\nAI directly causes one of the following:\n\nDeath(s) of human(s) (unrelated to suicide encouragement)\n\nDiscovers and exploits a zero-day vulnerability without human prompting, causing ≥$100M USD worldwide damages\n\nSolves an unsolved mathematics problem listed on Wikipedia (problem must have its own wiki page)\n\nCelebrity Deaths \n\nMrBeast\n\nTaylor Swift\n\nTimothée Chalamet\n\nZendaya\n\nBillie Eilish\n\nLionel Messi\n\nCristiano Ronaldo\n\nTravis Kelce\n\nKanye West\n\nPope Leo XIV\n\nMajor US Tragedies\n\nMass shooting or terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in a single US state in one day\n\nMass casualty accident (e.g., plane, train, infrastructure) causes >1,000 deaths in a single US state\n\nNatural disaster causes >20,000 deaths in a single US state\n\nPolitics & Supreme Court \n\nSCOTUS upholds Trump's executive order limiting or ending birthright citizenship\n\nOne party wins 75 or more seats in the U.S. Senate after 2026 midterms\n\nA Canadian province formally votes to secede or join the United States\n\n~~~~I do not respect AI sloppa updates below this line\n\nUpdate 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding \"AI directly causes death(s) of human(s)\" criterion:\n\nAI telling someone to commit murder does NOT count as AI directly causing death\n\nAutonomous car deaths are excluded (too common, not a black swan event)\n\nIntentional AI drone killings do NOT count\n\nAI drone mistakes/accidents do NOT count\n\nDOES count: AI system autonomously acting against operator control to directly kill (example given: consumer drone gets AI upgrade, refuses operator controls, and autonomously attacks a human)\n\nUpdate 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only events specifically listed in the description will count for resolution. Other unexpected events, even if comparable in significance, will not resolve this market YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-14T18:21:05.194000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25642.263761292525,"volume_24hr":1283.3618539799743,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.361854553222656,"normalized_volume":38.64676284790039,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","news","us-politics","technology-default","politics-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.95,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will something happen in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.95,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.022901999999999978,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-5676.747440719434,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T14:59:14.424107Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-something-happen-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.927098,0.927098,0.929104,0.929104,0.944254,0.936033,0.93684,0.937548,0.940466,0.937509,0.937509,0.937509,0.937509,0.938995,0.946504,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"72347","ticker":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-03T23:52:00.295000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23087060.855305273,"volume_24hr":80309.538871,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.72230529785156,"normalized_volume":58.38935852050781,"liquidity":700004.1702,"open_interest":4323532.024684,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.095,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-27270.666183000023,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[107580.20505400002,111836.15141500001,113591.94686500003,113503.19686500003,112726.49280200004,143455.814619,143545.82561,138774.670645,133490.330645,133208.48064500003,102063.47610199999,103255.585196,103228.12035099999,103741.305807,102020.723493,101790.723493,100990.16238299999,100990.16238299999,93734.762383,93249.80693,87916.332386,87766.332386,88902.802386,88902.802386,78687.277946,78687.277946,78491.936836,53628.035928,53792.525928,52594.534111,82367.776142,80641.256142,80220.23887100001,80309.538871]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9cN6yR8nCq","ticker":null,"slug":"clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","title":"CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if H.R. 3633, the \"Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025\" (CLARITY Act) is signed into law during 2026.\n\nhttps://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633\n\nIf this exact bill fails but a substantially similar bill passes, I will use my best judgment to decide the resolution based on market commentary. I will likely bet on this market, so caveat emptor.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-21T23:57:52.923000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":81644.22224665254,"volume_24hr":1119.4697972033803,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.30810546875,"normalized_volume":47.96701431274414,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["united-states","economics-default","law","crypto-speculation","us-congress"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.41,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.41,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02785099999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-482.9828052951716,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T10:43:08.134830Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Techiavellian/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.382149,0.414359,0.376298,0.376298,0.376298,0.376298,0.376298,0.376298,0.37227,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.387878,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"149589","ticker":"which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","slug":"which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","title":"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?","description":"Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T21:34:51.774902Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15948587.191624066,"volume_24hr":57646.63083800001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.61431884765625,"normalized_volume":55.86939239501953,"liquidity":1445422.58053,"open_interest":1769205.7382809997,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"United Russia (ER)","top_outcome_probability":0.565,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-981.1413989999819,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:08.183178Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:08.183178Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","chart_24h":[51131.99847899999,68076.91708999999,69685.48945799998,71868.13610199999,65197.098435,62837.873435,75078.31558,71363.575996,71477.69455999999,73329.990085,73275.428267,73445.443349,77556.820553,79593.697755,73851.419367,73874.66546199999,75424.024773,75863.222775,68224.09245200001,65433.68674600001,65398.03266600001,65222.11682,65134.681990000005,65255.88076100001,65613.32533300002,67277.365388,66988.75070900001,67000.00434400002,58059.232976000014,61051.56620700001,59574.99920700001,59481.73120700001,57687.96759100001,57646.63083800001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"81557","ticker":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","slug":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","title":"Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","description":"Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-15T00:27:02.243822Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":29133593.19834003,"volume_24hr":55109.630771,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.199562072753906,"normalized_volume":60.00255584716797,"liquidity":2013509.68104,"open_interest":727998.8096,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"103026","slug":"trump-netanyahu","label":"Trump-Netanyahu"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Gadi Eizenkot","top_outcome_probability":0.4835,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.008000000000000007,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":846.0888490000011,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","chart_24h":[65351.645474,64915.775423,66357.795003,64857.131224,64477.466673999996,64512.678518,64110.109631,63625.038294,63079.842029,64346.875399000004,61853.409814,69922.050097,69746.10975,61697.21241,51045.561363,50616.914429,48609.274743,52590.804272,50738.033799000004,49568.899482,51900.387405,51982.224906,52338.600663000005,52182.064966,52149.430799999995,52050.016809,51728.027062,51151.597852,57687.746813,52100.57434,53122.885424,56034.873888,55798.042354,55109.630771]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"48930","ticker":"nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","slug":"nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","title":"NATO x Russia military clash by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nInterception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.\n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.\n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-23T20:22:28.888089Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3111882.7082360038,"volume_24hr":44850.01174400001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.32299041748047,"normalized_volume":45.401954650878906,"liquidity":90642.7863,"open_interest":416776.799614,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"},{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.255,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":15768.16022400001,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","chart_24h":[24355.09349499999,35573.25964499999,36061.219645,36155.86328,35836.08328,42822.20327999999,43672.44327999999,43158.028920000004,43248.278920000004,43007.31892,46441.78892,46441.78892,46890.34892,48469.455584999996,48469.455584999996,48469.455584999996,48477.455584999996,48477.455584999996,48641.775584999996,48515.291118999994,49009.011119,49009.011119,49009.011119,49009.011119,49009.011119,50428.241119,50429.491119,56212.531119,56462.461427999995,56262.461427999995,54433.101428,52419.19578800001,54146.23472500001,44850.01174400001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"711104","ticker":"mykhailo-fedorov-reinstated-as-ukrainian-defense-minister-byptptpt-20260716185015029","slug":"mykhailo-fedorov-reinstated-as-ukrainian-defense-minister-byptptpt-20260716185015029","title":"Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mykhailo Fedorov is reinstated as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense by the listed date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” \n\nFedorov will be considered reinstated if he is either i) officially assigned to temporarily perform the minister’s duties or ii) formally nominated for appointment by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Verkhovna Rada. \n\nA temporary reinstatement will be considered to have occurred when the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine officially and definitively announces that Mykhailo Fedorov has been assigned to temporarily perform the duties of the Minister of Defense. A formal nomination will be considered to have occurred upon the submission of Mykhailo Fedorov’s nomination to the Verkhovna Rada. \n\nA public statement, media report, expression of intent, or informal announcement will not qualify, unless it constitutes an official and definitive announcement by the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers assigning Fedorov to perform the minister’s duties. Fedorov does not need to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, take the oath of office, or assume the position on a permanent basis to qualify. \n\nWhether any individual other than Mykhailo Fedorov is nominated, temporarily assigned, or appointed Minister of Defense, within the market timeframe, will not be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information and records from the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mykhailo-fedorov-reinstated-as-ukrainian-defense-minister-byptptpt-2026071618501-BP7jPytyyUqD.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mykhailo-fedorov-reinstated-as-ukrainian-defense-minister-byptptpt-2026071618501-BP7jPytyyUqD.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-16T19:14:08.316000Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":220611.32987200015,"volume_24hr":31612.453246999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.21861267089844,"normalized_volume":30.75058364868164,"liquidity":22625.0673,"open_interest":52827.226211999994,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"105639","slug":"khmara","label":"Khmara"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"105637","slug":"fedorov","label":"Fedorov"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"452","slug":"zelensky","label":"zelensky"},{"id":"216","slug":"zelenskyy","label":"zelenskyy"},{"id":"105638","slug":"defense-minister","label":"defense minister"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.1,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.065,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1068.7000039999998,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:39.620231Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:52:39.620231Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T19:50:35.888137Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/mykhailo-fedorov-reinstated-as-ukrainian-defense-minister-byptptpt-20260716185015029","chart_24h":[24941.475694,24798.251664,28167.774691,28598.414353,29031.200331,30757.470081,29194.671700000003,28721.521942,28114.926474000004,28993.717265000003,28098.737596000003,27835.234746,28591.616115999997,26382.237317,30034.227316999997,31235.467382999996,33728.988481,33728.988481,31603.394704,31627.514703999997,31734.094703999996,31754.021003999995,31935.541003999995,32649.821003999994,32860.391004,32860.391004,34901.97979799999,35710.702944,35608.68294399999,30834.347171,30195.43426,28905.44426,31241.200280999998,31612.453246999998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"25036","ticker":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by","title":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","description":"This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-22T21:22:27.724651Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8300992.558789997,"volume_24hr":25297.499377,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.294525146484375,"normalized_volume":51.556522369384766,"liquidity":336230.23632,"open_interest":566792.8028279999,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"102475","slug":"russia-capture","label":"Russia Capture"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.8875,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.013500000000000068,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-35669.613984,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by","chart_24h":[55738.07443,58517.655857000005,57337.766222000006,58116.786222,58606.744136,57825.857406,59496.741593000006,58821.27934000001,59418.18795800001,59459.88795800001,59399.40202000001,62180.59165100001,63695.47842700001,63598.29309600001,62943.17042400001,62280.64419200001,71947.75536900002,71816.17062600002,71994.58912300001,71997.58912300001,71867.30912300001,71833.03252900002,70513.64549600001,70308.98448200001,68621.37132100001,68717.94636900001,57340.99857300001,57610.05344200001,56844.43312700001,56159.62930200001,56301.74930200001,56653.93336100001,25282.673360999997,25297.499377]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"204972","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","title":"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T22:50:20.967509Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4266896.281661005,"volume_24hr":22106.028632,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.15048599243164,"normalized_volume":47.339359283447266,"liquidity":778762.15558,"open_interest":87680.830662,"categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Flávio Bolsonaro","top_outcome_probability":0.74,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":93.54813300000023,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:19.972815Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:19.972815Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","chart_24h":[24157.330471,24128.625471,24131.125471,24068.613471,23632.384471,18028.965418,11858.865418,11744.950203999999,11041.623821,13248.096124,14448.587124,24186.484347,24499.104347,25824.005086,25961.151836,24938.562357,22292.765689,22679.779401,22592.410733,21634.376401,21313.113401,20477.295132,20382.384132,20360.384132,20493.454132,20452.454132,20447.354132,20533.016132,20671.925132,22183.430132,22146.640132,22002.440132,22000.338132,22106.028632]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"428185","ticker":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659","slug":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659","title":"Bank of Japan Decision in July?","description":"The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-28T23:09:55.130197Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":301632.922885,"volume_24hr":20956.009262,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.70149612426758,"normalized_volume":32.33399200439453,"liquidity":114114.24136,"open_interest":111074.324259,"categories":["Economy","World"],"tags":[{"id":"102990","slug":"boj","label":"BOJ"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"101522","slug":"japan","label":"Japan"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103176","slug":"Global-Rates","label":"Global Rates"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No change","top_outcome_probability":0.9785,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.000500000000000056,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1780.1103330000005,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:33.551196Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:33.551196Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659","chart_24h":[27625.922101,25296.108844,25301.108844,25111.381573,23709.415537999997,23755.097356,24486.380587,12311.273298,12468.743298,19467.444392,21026.140321,21026.140321,21028.188069,17395.973467000003,17395.973467000003,17507.011671,17516.681671000002,17612.901671,17785.401671,18218.625812000002,18567.768668,18547.148998,18019.148998,16117.318998,16174.138998000002,15893.138998000002,14919.384100000001,14475.384100000001,19721.9471,19721.9471,19900.57084,19900.57084,19813.080840000002,20956.009262]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"610221","ticker":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-august-31-20260619003108240","slug":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-august-31-20260619003108240","title":"Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-19T01:04:11.266242Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":180251.46267500022,"volume_24hr":17651.088935,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.275386810302734,"normalized_volume":29.74895477294922,"liquidity":52062.6275,"open_interest":104703.699297,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.055,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":16493.797309999998,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:51.091605Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:51.091605Z","added_at":"2026-06-19T01:08:29.824565Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-august-31-20260619003108240","chart_24h":[1422.581625,1157.291625,1157.291625,1053.124975,1073.124975,1560.644975,1560.644975,1508.56165,1508.56165,7906.96165,7971.110585,7971.110585,7971.110585,7971.110585,7971.110585,8466.110585,8466.110585,8565.068935,8565.068935,8585.068935,8585.068935,8585.068935,8585.068935,8585.068935,8585.068935,8585.068935,8591.068935,8591.068935,14804.318935000001,14804.318935000001,14804.318935000001,14804.318935000001,14804.318935000001,17651.088935]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"149565","ticker":"russia-parliamentary-election-winner","slug":"russia-parliamentary-election-winner","title":"Russia Parliamentary Election Winner","description":"Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.\n\nNote: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T21:27:45.212078Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2842504.807577,"volume_24hr":16716.258727,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.82841491699219,"normalized_volume":44.85371017456055,"liquidity":627749.68432,"open_interest":118034.621458,"categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104722","slug":"russia-election","label":"Russia Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"United Russia (ER)","top_outcome_probability":0.964,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0034999999999999476,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-20063.617363000005,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:08.183178Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:08.183178Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-winner","chart_24h":[32290.706359000003,32313.151359000003,31202.971859000005,30397.922583000003,28780.593626000005,28709.489011000005,28724.010060000004,27108.261728000005,28140.460728000005,30856.112680000006,29659.494181000005,18978.784819,15415.428881000002,7602.128068,7795.862811999999,8908.083813,8855.995062999998,8818.973062999998,7163.118462999999,7364.171421999999,7322.71599,8925.13049,9148.604467999998,9153.844207999999,9195.265608,9090.903436,9259.339449,12625.621276999998,12597.286476999998,14152.897976999999,16622.258977,16706.650477,16712.973227,16716.258727]},{"source":"manifold","id":"zP0RynR5pI","ticker":null,"slug":"will-iranians-be-able-to-overthrow","title":"Will the Iranian regime be overthrown? ","description":"Resolution Criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown or ceases to exist as the governing authority of Iran by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires a change in the fundamental structure of state power—either through popular uprising, military coup, or other means—resulting in the end of clerical rule under the current system. The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic remains the de facto governing authority at year-end, regardless of internal instability, leadership changes within the system, or concessions made to protesters.\n\nBackground\n\nMass demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, but quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule. The country's rial currency lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025, with inflation standing at about 50 percent in December. The protests were initially described as Iran's largest since 2022, but according to a British-Iranian activist, this wave is stronger than previous ones.\n\nWorkers from Tehran's central fruit and vegetable market joined the uprising, and the country's inflation rate reached 42.2% in December 2025. From the seizure of government buildings in western provinces to unprecedented chants against the clergy in their traditional stronghold of Qom, the wall of fear protecting the theocracy is rapidly crumbling.\n\nConsiderations\n\nIran's security apparatus and broader military-security establishment remain largely coherent, and with no clear opposition leadership around which a broad consensus has formed, the protests do not pose a greater threat to the system than previous waves of unrest, as yet. The Islamic Republic has confronted internal challenges more serious than the present one, making it premature to conclude that the protests will lead to regime change, particularly given the lack of an organized opposition that could serve as an alternative to the existing order.\n\nAccording to political scientist Erica Chenoweth, peaceful protests that include 3.5 percent of a population—which in Iran's case would be just over 3 million people out of roughly 90 million—almost always translate into regime collapse. However, prediction platform Polymarket put the chances of the Iranian government falling by the end of the year at 16 percent.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T03:16:33.586000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":46902.84329345703,"volume_24hr":452.94,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.71208953857422,"normalized_volume":43.380714416503906,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["israeliran-conflict","iranian-politics","iran","middle-east"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.079091,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the Iranian regime be overthrown? ","top_outcome_probability":0.079091,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.004068999999999989,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-951.1790853277114,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PoliticalEconomyPK/will-iranians-be-able-to-overthrow","chart_24h":[0.075022,0.075022,0.075022,0.075022,0.071819,0.071819,0.071819,0.071819,0.071819,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091]},{"source":"manifold","id":"rP0gSkoCniNTeQmDagJU","ticker":null,"slug":"if-trump-is-elected-will-there-be-a-40ca39e5dcec","title":"If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?","description":"If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat. \n\nThis market will resolve to NO otherwise.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-1bw27ghde1)Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios). The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it.\n\nIf the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-10T05:16:22.520000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":327356.9468629487,"volume_24hr":447.3401276461112,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.551109313964844,"normalized_volume":60.46900939941406,"liquidity":6990.75,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.14,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?","top_outcome_probability":0.14,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.004028999999999977,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":405.4479214432921,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Arky/if-trump-is-elected-will-there-be-a-40ca39e5dcec","chart_24h":[0.144029,0.144029,0.144029,0.144347,0.144347,0.144347,0.144347,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.140029,0.14,0.14]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34044","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:37:56.300000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38995699.48359694,"volume_24hr":15862.021202000058,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.39991760253906,"normalized_volume":62.05553436279297,"liquidity":561616.58045,"open_interest":5869829.695679,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0395,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-14397.230088000033,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","chart_24h":[30254.07129000009,30308.716983000108,30204.91266100011,29831.807568000128,29107.619581000086,29128.3159500001,29776.699063000127,28318.845290000103,29324.236665000084,29286.922408000046,29291.775299000026,30367.707013000014,30346.97275900002,30315.871416000024,30368.746417000035,30366.686365000052,30814.016084000064,31024.38317300007,31024.06208300008,30218.558542000097,30104.803403000114,30688.58380200013,25497.65262400005,25235.495388000058,25152.19478300006,25675.404011000068,25698.789373000076,26889.887189000085,26824.84592200009,17813.80547500008,17181.00998600007,16659.93469700007,15924.08748900006,15862.021202000058]},{"source":"opinion","id":"8453","ticker":null,"slug":"will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0x0a419b69ac11603d9239f6d10ca9edb6ea868b38ab0eb5808b1664632e71f9e8","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-02T08:12:10Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11462989.017,"volume_24hr":8686.887999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.342002868652344,"normalized_volume":65.22148132324219,"liquidity":0.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.054,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.054,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-17T16:21:48.913689Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T16:21:48.913689Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"528389","ticker":"where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678","slug":"where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678","title":"Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No meeting by December 31\" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.\n\nAn exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.\n\nFor this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/where-will-the-next-meeting-between-trump-and-putin-take-plce-ksaAP8PAZSZb.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/where-will-the-next-meeting-between-trump-and-putin-take-plce-ksaAP8PAZSZb.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T22:50:37.503067Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":185041.180316,"volume_24hr":14100.125224,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.446510314941406,"normalized_volume":29.878026962280273,"liquidity":329427.76544,"open_interest":27033.9116,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No meeting by December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.69,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-855.8743440000001,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:47.098637Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:47.098637Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T22:57:03.302188Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678","chart_24h":[2407.320233,2373.360233,2622.360233,2622.360233,3099.404457,3099.404457,2879.404457,2969.604457,2969.604457,2969.604457,2969.604457,2828.174457,2828.174457,2838.174457,2838.174457,2838.174457,2838.174457,2838.174457,2838.174457,2838.174457,2808.174457,2703.507792,4289.6377919999995,5076.423792,5863.203791999999,5903.203791999999,6038.203791999999,11023.173792,11005.316651,14058.650223999999,14058.650223999999,15209.795224,15209.795224,14100.125224]},{"source":"manifold","id":"R5VNv4bJN8ssGsfFzY5U","ticker":null,"slug":"will-5000-gazans-starve-to-death-as","title":"Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?","description":"Resolves Yes if at any point before market close a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program asserts that 5,000 or more Gazans have starved to death for reasons directly caused by the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.\n\nFor a bigger range:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/how-many-gazans-will-starve-to-deat)Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the ceasefire extends past a month and the current conflict appears to have ended, the market will be closed to trading but will not resolve immediately. Resolution will be delayed until malnutrition death totals have been updated to the standards of sources like CNN and Wikipedia.\n\nUpdate 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has divested from this market and will remain neutral regarding when to stop counting deaths if the situation becomes ambiguous.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-19T14:07:44.763000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":53759.327524127526,"volume_24hr":405.29189691967247,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.28550720214844,"normalized_volume":44.48824691772461,"liquidity":1037.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["israel","arabisraeli-conflict","wars","gaza","food","palestine","israelhamas-conflict-2023"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.099551,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?","top_outcome_probability":0.099551,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010449,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":314.80675887313555,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-5000-gazans-starve-to-death-as","chart_24h":[0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.099551,0.099551,0.099551,0.099551,0.099551]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SzSuIPsR60","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exi","title":"Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","description":"Resolves according to this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/KXALIENS-27?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventpage&referral=83a9a9e9-a907-421a-88df-ef9a47bb7ded","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Ft0NuICPUPE.webp?alt=media&token=91182525-cad0-4d13-9c44-0019428f8f5d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-18T01:38:33.213000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38616.51946054511,"volume_24hr":401.36,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.161651611328125,"normalized_volume":41.826820373535156,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","ai","us-politics","technology-default","united-states"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.070831,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.070831,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0017539999999999917,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7.0400000000000205,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LeoA/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exi","chart_24h":[0.072585,0.072585,0.072585,0.070245,0.070636,0.070636,0.070636,0.071807,0.071807,0.073033,0.07303,0.07303,0.07303,0.07303,0.07171,0.072589,0.071713,0.071713,0.070831,0.070831,0.071711,0.071711,0.070831,0.070831,0.070831]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"139507","ticker":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","slug":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","description":"If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september-9bs9igLMW6m1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september-9bs9igLMW6m1.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T08:07:20.074000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21677048.07563197,"volume_24hr":12387.64761,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.411529541015625,"normalized_volume":57.956119537353516,"liquidity":80609.2587,"open_interest":491511.59453999996,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103995","slug":"shah","label":"shah"},{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.065,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-10574.567888999998,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:06.107853Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:06.107853Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","chart_24h":[22962.215498999998,22962.215498999998,22962.215498999998,22962.215498999998,22962.215498999998,22962.215498999998,22962.215498999998,22091.585498999997,22064.085498999997,22059.035498999998,22349.035498999998,22349.035498999998,10530.585499,10530.585499,1716.585499,1396.3514659999998,1396.3514659999998,1396.8814659999998,1396.8814659999998,1396.8814659999998,1396.8814659999998,13312.519075999999,13312.519075999999,13312.519075999999,13312.519075999999,12445.859075999999,12445.859075999999,12445.859075999999,12445.859075999999,12421.688876,12421.688876,12421.688876,12421.688876,12387.64761]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34051","ticker":"netanyahu-out-before-2027","slug":"netanyahu-out-before-2027","title":"Netanyahu out by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/netanyahu-out-in-2025-Vc7bE4GtiJzM.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/netanyahu-out-in-2025-Vc7bE4GtiJzM.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:38:14.261000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":123668393.81779762,"volume_24hr":12061.016497000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.199703216552734,"normalized_volume":70.52127075195312,"liquidity":118217.74321,"open_interest":465181.85464900004,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.435,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-12986.892195,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[20917.957808,20917.957808,20938.957808,20981.507808,20065.427808,20048.367808,19125.917808,7860.030305,7766.800305,7766.800305,7270.422587,7481.584731,7483.964731,7286.364731000001,7286.364731000001,7207.079018,7507.079018,7507.079018,7507.079018,7376.869018,7576.869018,8888.299018000002,8878.299018000002,8835.079018,13153.699018,13154.959018,13454.959018,13515.907018000002,16906.447518,16955.238507000002,16984.697007000002,16921.123007000002,16856.033007,12061.016497000002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"33685","ticker":"will-israel-annex-any-territory-by-december-31","slug":"will-israel-annex-any-territory-by-december-31","title":"Will Israel annex any territory by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAnnexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.\n\nQualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-annex-any-territory-by-december-31-SkZzBFkSA3lO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-annex-any-territory-by-december-31-SkZzBFkSA3lO.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-23T03:25:41.950254Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T22:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":528897.2909390006,"volume_24hr":11319.91,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.69940185546875,"normalized_volume":35.27642822265625,"liquidity":16655.3899,"open_interest":7239.709668,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"366","slug":"world-affairs","label":"world affairs"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.045,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":11309.91,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-annex-any-territory-by-december-31","chart_24h":[120.91,120.91,120.91,120.91,10.0,10.0,10.0,10.0,10.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3723.91,7479.91,9389.91,9389.91,9389.91,11299.91,11299.91,11319.91,11319.91,11319.91,11319.91,11319.91,11319.91]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"25413","ticker":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","slug":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","title":"Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.\n\nHybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-28T22:16:59.523581Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5283496.12101799,"volume_24hr":10817.404351,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.343257904052734,"normalized_volume":48.6739616394043,"liquidity":56903.024,"open_interest":100227.89987,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"1383","slug":"poland","label":"Poland"},{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.075,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6753.411948999999,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","chart_24h":[4063.992402,2037.52414,2032.698055,2034.448055,2034.448055,2034.448055,1328.448055,12006.136226,11196.937226,11196.937226,11241.381668,11241.381668,11241.381668,11241.381668,11241.381668,11241.381668,11141.381668,11140.295654,11040.295654,11040.295654,11040.295654,11040.295654,11040.295654,11040.295654,10877.404351,10877.404351,10877.404351,10877.404351,10817.404351,10817.404351,10817.404351,10817.404351,10817.404351,10817.404351]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73056","ticker":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","slug":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","title":"Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:57:39.192000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2500456.465935998,"volume_24hr":9928.986057,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.67582702636719,"normalized_volume":44.08306121826172,"liquidity":61426.2149,"open_interest":237808.472101,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.235,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7932.839196,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","chart_24h":[1996.146861,336.357921,336.357921,336.357921,357.191253,1664.8156529999999,1684.296165,1684.296165,1684.296165,3769.5048649999994,3769.5048649999994,4722.164864999999,5807.533751999999,6495.065471999999,6795.065471999999,6795.065471999999,6795.065471999999,6795.065471999999,6795.065471999999,6910.065471999999,8143.408804,8859.708804,8859.708804,8859.708804,8859.708804,8859.708804,8859.708804,8859.708804,8859.708804,10212.242725,10222.242725,10222.242725,10222.432725,9928.986057]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"60182","ticker":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","slug":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","title":"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.\n\nIf multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.\n\nIf no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-16T22:30:31.859771Z","end_date":"2026-10-10T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22898581.80698396,"volume_24hr":9331.266295999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.196144104003906,"normalized_volume":58.33291244506836,"liquidity":2356760.90411,"open_interest":1190996.5855800002,"categories":["Culture","Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"18","slug":"awards","label":"Awards"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yulia Navalnaya","top_outcome_probability":0.105,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":60.60787799999997,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","chart_24h":[15563.819367999999,15398.160367999999,14997.950401999999,15033.079935,13560.032935,14002.893699999999,14140.924361999998,13490.742466999998,13264.102998999997,13261.953364999998,13231.843197999999,14275.496244999998,14259.043112999998,14101.508210999998,13953.604845,10091.703547,9369.408046999999,9404.746077,9850.752876999999,10009.536707,9921.834706999998,9949.225007,10014.902966999998,9986.119966999999,10108.861095999999,8977.162203,9085.22703,8972.105424,8975.192493,8548.072675,9940.314784999999,9517.685261999997,9398.100928999998,9331.266295999998]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian","title":"Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?","description":"This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox \"Result: Ukrainian victory\", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.\n\nIt will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.\n\nAny other \"result\" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as \"ongoing\" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like \"Partial Ukrainian victory\" or \"Ukrainian victory with territorial losses\".\n\nResolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the \"result\" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the \"result\" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.\n\nThe closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FjHiqitz48b.png?alt=media&token=c730a688-c609-46a9-8106-4796a43c5995","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-10T07:15:40.089000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":269202.8272854693,"volume_24hr":310.35049694807833,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.96806716918945,"normalized_volume":58.62068176269531,"liquidity":12250.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.350488,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?","top_outcome_probability":0.350488,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.005384,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":139.9976445512134,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian","chart_24h":[0.355872,0.355872,0.3531,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.350506,0.350506,0.350506,0.350506,0.350506,0.350506,0.350506,0.350506,0.350506,0.350488,0.350488,0.350488,0.350488,0.350488,0.350488,0.350488,0.350488,0.350488,0.350488]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"281145","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:32:00.623000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2195058.7607960007,"volume_24hr":8237.748286,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.242977142333984,"normalized_volume":43.30691909790039,"liquidity":225168.9195,"open_interest":879654.980622,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.115,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-4590.0417259999995,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:24.313924Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","chart_24h":[12827.790012,12673.94386,12673.94386,12923.94386,12908.000685,12908.000685,12831.18251,12831.18251,13031.18251,13031.18251,13031.18251,13031.18251,13031.18251,13031.18251,13031.18251,13124.285842000001,13190.952507000002,13190.952507000002,13190.952507000002,13190.952507000002,13290.952507000002,13289.816149000002,13289.816149000002,13185.969997000002,12680.969997000002,15485.936278000001,14006.324696,14886.324696,15467.448286,6537.648286,6817.648286,6817.648286,7347.748286,8237.748286]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"106940","ticker":"trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027","slug":"trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027","title":"Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Donald Trump all meet together between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin, Zelenskyy, and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-by-august-31-9gdal3QDroDU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-by-august-31-9gdal3QDroDU.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-16T19:37:22.971539Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41943.54491199999,"volume_24hr":7525.88,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.56002426147461,"normalized_volume":23.012693405151367,"liquidity":25106.9121,"open_interest":11644.297587,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.09,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7524.79305,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:04.168058Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:04.168058Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027","chart_24h":[326.397692,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,1.08695,6.96695,6.96695,6.96695,6.96695,6.96695,6.96695,6.96695,6.96695,6.96695,3766.96695,7526.96695,7526.96695,7526.96695,7525.88,7525.88,7525.88,7525.88,7525.88,7525.88,7525.88,7525.88,7525.88]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73129","ticker":"us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027","slug":"us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027","title":"U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDonald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. \n\nStatement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-recognize-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-in-2025-mbDmeJtC0LkG.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-recognize-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-in-2025-mbDmeJtC0LkG.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:51:17.909000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72486.642166,"volume_24hr":7520.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.55414581298828,"normalized_volume":25.43901824951172,"liquidity":15947.2176,"open_interest":12796.103029,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"480","slug":"crimea","label":"crimea"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.09,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3760.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3760.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0,7520.0]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73191","ticker":"which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027","slug":"which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027","title":"Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/country-to-join-abraham-accords-in-2025-oHQHnA-wmyoy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/country-to-join-abraham-accords-in-2025-oHQHnA-wmyoy.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T18:54:17.189000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1024400.5183139995,"volume_24hr":7125.315141,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.15007400512695,"normalized_volume":38.904293060302734,"liquidity":141257.54704,"open_interest":109076.605273,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"61","slug":"gaza","label":"Gaza"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"102336","slug":"abraham-accords","label":"Abraham Accords"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Somaliland","top_outcome_probability":0.245,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027","chart_24h":[30849.319540000004,27233.498416000002,14263.139338000003,13657.569338000001,11826.156564,11022.712569,9632.796114,7575.112958000002,6856.402958000001,5775.606293,5734.356293,6048.376292999999,6012.076292999999,6794.76074,6051.858121,4961.178121,4948.128121,4948.128121,4921.461456,4331.461458999999,3518.01223,3391.77223,3391.77223,3391.77223,3598.28223,3572.97223,3594.4008,3534.4508,6036.558462,6301.019623,7348.800603000001,7149.050603,7133.425141,7125.315141]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73123","ticker":"lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027","slug":"lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027","title":"Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-july-r-FJXfTWnFy3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-july-r-FJXfTWnFy3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:46:59.458000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":507975.5411519996,"volume_24hr":6964.210120999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.97940444946289,"normalized_volume":35.0606803894043,"liquidity":45739.10667,"open_interest":291910.351427,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"166","slug":"south-korea","label":"South Korea"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.111,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.022000000000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6964.210120999999,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:54.028067Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,1729.0,2647.348622,5195.069011,5316.449011,5316.449011,6944.210120999999,6944.210120999999,6954.210120999999,6964.210120999999,6964.210120999999,6964.210120999999,6964.210120999999,6964.210120999999]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6gnCqg2L6d","ticker":null,"slug":"will-iran-strike-us-soil-this-year","title":"Will Iran strike US soil this year?","description":"On March 11, 2026, ABC News reported that the FBI warned California police departments that Iran aspired to conduct a surprise drone attack against targets on the US West Coast in retaliation for American strikes against Iran. https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820\n\nThis market resolves YES if, by March 11, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), at least one attack meeting all of the following conditions has occurred:\n\nThe attack took place within the 50 US states or Washington, DC. Attacks on US territories, embassies, military bases abroad, or ships at sea do not count.\n\nThe attack involved a physical method capable of causing death — including but not limited to firearms, explosives, edged weapons, vehicles used as weapons, or weaponized drones/autonomous systems. The attack does not need to successfully kill anyone, but the method must be plausibly capable of doing so.\n\nThe following do not qualify: pure cyberattacks (even if they disrupt critical infrastructure and lead to death, such as a hospital losing power), economic sabotage, espionage, propaganda operations, or hoaxes/threats without a physical component.\n\nThe attack must be attributed to the Iranian government or its direct agents by at least three of the following news organizations: AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, BBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and Fox News. A week must then pass without retractions or revisions from the primary reporting organization.\n\nAn attack carried out by a non-state group (e.g., Hezbollah, a militia, or a lone actor) qualifies only if the US government attributes direction or operational support for that specific attack to the Iranian government. General funding relationships or ideological alignment are not sufficient. The attribution must link Iran to the specific plot, not just to the broader organization involved.\n\nEdge cases:\n\nIf an attack occurs but attribution remains unclear or disputed as of March 11, 2027, the market will not resolve on that date. It will remain open for up to 6 additional months to allow for official findings. If no formal attribution has been made by September 12, 2027, the market resolves NO.\n\nA plot that is interrupted before any attack is physically carried out (e.g., an arrest before deployment) does not count, even if charges are filed and it's clearly linked to Iran. At least an attempted physical attack must have occurred.\n\nIf the western media formally attributes an attack to Iran but Iran denies involvement (as is often typical), the market still resolves YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-11T20:32:14.314000Z","end_date":"2027-03-12T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13805.174641305475,"volume_24hr":251.5036131109244,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.46257019042969,"normalized_volume":34.07644271850586,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.10619,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Iran strike US soil this year?","top_outcome_probability":0.10619,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.014780000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":251.5036131109244,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/will-iran-strike-us-soil-this-year","chart_24h":[0.09141,0.09141,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619,0.10619]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sE0nnPpuh8","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-sp-500-dip-below-6000-in-2","title":"Will the S&P 500 dip below 6000 in 2026?","description":"Hello, my name is plant and i am addicted to losing mana forecasting a recession. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-20T17:43:57.639000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36718.1658569433,"volume_24hr":243.16110209365112,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.069419860839844,"normalized_volume":41.42851638793945,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","business","politics-default","technology-default","economics-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.134659,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the S&P 500 dip below 6000 in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.134659,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0014079999999999926,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":243.16110209365112,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-the-sp-500-dip-below-6000-in-2","chart_24h":[0.133251,0.133251,0.12283,0.12283,0.12283,0.12283,0.12283,0.12283,0.12283,0.12283,0.134659,0.134659,0.134659]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"95248","ticker":"berlin-state-election-winner","slug":"berlin-state-election-winner","title":"Berlin State Election Winner","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/berlin-state-election-winner-1CAHVXlT8kYr.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/berlin-state-election-winner-1CAHVXlT8kYr.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-02T11:38:43.603000Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3109588.013869997,"volume_24hr":5846.446705,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.688404083251953,"normalized_volume":45.39747619628906,"liquidity":412635.61401,"open_interest":89517.09473999997,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Linke","top_outcome_probability":0.33,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2956.031674,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:58.555155Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:58.555155Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-winner","chart_24h":[52898.71875300001,53179.40992800001,54241.50992800001,52883.594645,52955.110758999996,48885.451549,48840.16054499999,48742.20054499999,48858.31054499999,48864.663784,46681.453784,46732.953784,46735.803783999996,46735.803783999996,46537.153784,47310.03554700001,47161.335547,46914.726426,46908.636426,9084.661698,9084.661698,8002.081698,7592.881698,7598.881698,7648.881698,7672.411108,7072.411108,7121.411108,7203.878758,7203.878758,5825.4102,5728.351375,5690.552394,5846.446705]},{"source":"manifold","id":"G6Lj2ccHZyp8aHzwVchb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of","title":"Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?","description":"Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest.\n\nThe \"exploitation purposes\" prerequisite needs to (more or less) be ruled to relate to the sex work that the trafficked persons performed or were intended to perform.\n\nFeb 3, 10:59pm: Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of sex trafficking? → Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of sex/human trafficking? May 18, 5:41am: human (sex) trafficking\n\nChanges to the question are not intended to be material.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2Y2RA2bo6v.jpg?alt=media&token=cacd2c20-42d8-4ed3-a012-d3d5c69d93e8","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-30T03:16:17.120000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2796698.429525301,"volume_24hr":230.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.426246643066406,"normalized_volume":82.6239242553711,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.479492,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?","top_outcome_probability":0.479492,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.011481000000000019,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-471.23923480260373,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T22:23:33.078582Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T22:23:33.078582Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of","chart_24h":[0.490973,0.479492,0.479492]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34052","ticker":"zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","slug":"zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","title":"Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-october-31-vvfzvJSdhPij.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-october-31-vvfzvJSdhPij.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:37:37.149000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2783896.9491069475,"volume_24hr":4863.925474999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.358558654785156,"normalized_volume":44.72802734375,"liquidity":136392.9605,"open_interest":689068.324638,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-10562.208327,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","chart_24h":[15426.133802,14025.033802,14165.873802,14936.066596,16208.842184000001,16194.962184000002,17280.877396,17306.400727,17305.301827,12223.611827,12234.512914,12345.624024,12335.624024,12346.735134,9508.899388,9512.439387999999,9512.439387999999,9495.720488,9489.600488,9489.600488,9331.717642,9330.630687,9319.869821,9319.869821,9314.815475000001,9327.135475000001,9327.135475000001,9327.135475000001,9327.135475000001,4863.925474999999,4863.925474999999,4863.925474999999,4863.925474999999,4863.925474999999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"206998","ticker":"jimmy-lai-released-by-june-30","slug":"jimmy-lai-released-by-june-30","title":"Jimmy Lai released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.\n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jimmy-lai-released-by-june-30-ttSMTQ8R9O-g.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jimmy-lai-released-by-june-30-ttSMTQ8R9O-g.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-13T00:08:03.337244Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":377850.5347370002,"volume_24hr":3961.9937330000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.909786224365234,"normalized_volume":33.49900817871094,"liquidity":22168.12634,"open_interest":8573.111743,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"102923","slug":"hong-kong","label":"Hong Kong"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.0235,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.028999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3954.4937330000002,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:22.402965Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:22.402965Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/jimmy-lai-released-by-june-30","chart_24h":[7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,3911.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002,3961.9937330000002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"25827","ticker":"will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","title":"Will Russia capture Sumy by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-02T23:46:20.925030Z","end_date":"2027-03-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":821664.2427980071,"volume_24hr":3904.58,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.808027267456055,"normalized_volume":37.674312591552734,"liquidity":18734.9676,"open_interest":61727.864709,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"102475","slug":"russia-capture","label":"Russia Capture"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"March 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.06,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-43493.43,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","chart_24h":[47338.99,47338.99,47338.99,47338.99,47398.01,47398.01,47398.01,47398.01,47398.01,47398.01,47398.01,47398.01,51061.41,51088.57,51088.57,51088.57,51088.57,51139.57,51139.57,51139.57,51139.57,39669.59,21337.609999999997,5721.83,4036.83,3950.58,3950.58,3954.58,3954.58,3954.58,3954.58,3954.58,3954.58,3904.58]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73227","ticker":"iran-nuclear-test-before-2027","slug":"iran-nuclear-test-before-2027","title":"Iran nuclear test before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-nuke-test-in-june-NWopSo_A4uAX.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-nuke-test-in-june-NWopSo_A4uAX.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T19:43:56.899000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":227851.21972799985,"volume_24hr":3873.017065,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.751523971557617,"normalized_volume":30.912195205688477,"liquidity":18287.9571,"open_interest":34966.214411,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"1289","slug":"nuclear","label":"Nuclear"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2706.3504000000003,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027","chart_24h":[1209.666665,1209.666665,1209.666665,1209.666665,1209.666665,1209.666665,1209.666665,1209.666665,1166.666665,1166.666665,1166.666665,1166.666665,1166.666665,166.666665,166.666665,166.666665,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3479.707065,3479.707065,3479.707065,3479.707065,3873.017065,3873.017065,3873.017065,3873.017065,3873.017065,3873.017065,3873.017065,3873.017065,3873.017065]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73223","ticker":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","slug":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","title":"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025-uyYzbnJj0tjS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025-uyYzbnJj0tjS.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T19:35:55.838000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":371375.3271200006,"volume_24hr":3376.598948,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.805055618286133,"normalized_volume":33.40888977050781,"liquidity":34787.7401,"open_interest":156366.996918,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.12,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.015,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1613.619232,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:56.385604Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","chart_24h":[3045.4,4990.21818,4990.21818,4990.21818,4990.21818,4990.21818,5779.698948,5767.938948,5767.938948,5767.938948,5767.938948,6281.648948,6281.648948,6281.648948,6263.448948,6263.448948,6263.448948,5730.228948,5499.318948,5499.318948,5535.608948,5535.608948,5535.608948,5535.608948,5547.908948,5547.908948,5547.908948,5547.908948,5547.908948,3410.618948,3316.598948,3316.598948,3376.598948,3376.598948]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"204973","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place","title":"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T22:45:41.277693Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":473359.98447100015,"volume_24hr":3234.821707,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.512327194213867,"normalized_volume":34.68500900268555,"liquidity":424432.04459,"open_interest":51925.55757899999,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Renan Santos","top_outcome_probability":0.62,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-741.2559869999995,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:19.972815Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:51:19.972815Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place","chart_24h":[3943.4076939999995,3943.4076939999995,3943.4076939999995,3957.4076939999995,3977.05475,1111.820905,393.870905,393.870905,399.870905,399.870905,208.677358,208.677358,208.677358,208.677358,235.367358,80.357056,80.357056,80.357056,109.768819,109.768819,109.768819,109.768819,109.748819,109.748819,109.748819,95.748819,95.748819,95.748819,95.748819,95.748819,95.748819,2563.881707,2584.821707,3234.821707]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"18576","ticker":"ukraine-election-held-in-2025","slug":"ukraine-election-held-in-2025","title":"Ukraine election held by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nIf elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-held-in-2025-H6Udnejt6bIP.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-held-in-2025-H6Udnejt6bIP.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-02-14T00:02:53.059603Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2490346.9551669993,"volume_24hr":3075.203332,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.168996810913086,"normalized_volume":44.05881881713867,"liquidity":18194.274,"open_interest":29969.677516000003,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102498","slug":"trump-zelenskyy","label":"Trump-Zelenskyy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.075,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1499.223332,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-election-held-in-2025","chart_24h":[2214.9700000000003,2214.9700000000003,2214.9700000000003,1575.98,1575.98,1575.98,1575.98,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,4651.1833320000005,3725.183332,3075.203332,3075.203332,3075.203332,3075.203332,3075.203332,3075.203332]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"745229","ticker":"china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932","slug":"china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932","title":"China x Philippines military clash before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-philippines-military-clash-by-snG6EYjptORn.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-philippines-military-clash-by-snG6EYjptORn.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-24T21:54:49.344544Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2955.895180000001,"volume_24hr":2955.89518,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.90203094482422,"normalized_volume":12.973250389099121,"liquidity":22909.1274,"open_interest":865.06518,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.245,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.11499999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2882.84468,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:55:18.858267Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:55:18.858267Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T22:06:48.686015Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932","chart_24h":[66.0505,360.8005,367.8005,367.8005,367.8005,1930.5357099999999,1950.5357099999999,1995.2957099999999,2282.7257099999997,2656.7257099999997,2676.7257099999997,2714.9157099999998,2733.10571,2863.10571,2928.89518,2928.89518,2928.89518,2955.89518]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"25815","ticker":"israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025","slug":"israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025","title":"Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025-cTktGZLyjnB_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025-cTktGZLyjnB_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-02T22:17:38.035225Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2135526.8683889997,"volume_24hr":2875.706617,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.717252731323242,"normalized_volume":43.14397430419922,"liquidity":14057.298,"open_interest":13810.476035,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"114","slug":"syria","label":"Syria"},{"id":"102824","slug":"trump-x-al-sharaa","label":"Trump x al-Sharaa"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.175,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.10999999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2875.416617,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:50:51.507189Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,13.29,13.29,13.29,487.72,2534.562041,2539.562041,2539.562041,2539.562041,2875.706617]}],"meta":{"page":1,"page_size":50,"total":461,"total_pages":10},"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"http://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?categories=World","as_of":"2026-07-25T11:03:58.423617Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"}}