{"items":[{"source":"manifold","id":"2snNALshs8","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-millennium-problem-be-solved","title":"Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-11T18:28:53.930000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":62521.728462220264,"volume_24hr":56491.83542496195,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":94.2706527709961,"normalized_volume":45.16398620605469,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.98,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.98,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.79,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":56400.088015819856,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T21:17:50.614193Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-a-millennium-problem-be-solved","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.689451,0.627094,0.685357,0.5,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.748014,0.85,0.7,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"45915","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election","slug":"brazil-presidential-election","title":"Brazil Presidential Election","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. 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If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T21:34:51.774902Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25929638.10371,"volume_24hr":664893.849148,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":74.59587097167969,"normalized_volume":66.29815673828125,"liquidity":2498418.85461,"open_interest":3147990.7090120004,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"United Russia (ER)","top_outcome_probability":0.735,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.040000000000000036,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":191512.94390100002,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:03.008650Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:03.008650Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","chart_24h":[216725.899575,217409.794431,210439.282397,209192.08218199998,210451.713182,210453.065182,214307.92009300002,215576.68227499997,204049.18638899998,187005.83538899999,184647.287299,186227.45919499997,204362.44257199997,217121.14821999997,213234.39178,220689.17714999997,228747.21218099998,228733.92025999998,271470.87185299996,467551.5769920001,491865.94149700005,487185.36958700005,486771.50886700006,509564.73628,552415.208748,550983.180985,552763.6166010001,546923.085748,547069.046542,549696.566664,569587.953306,609480.003018,659714.478283]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79987","ticker":"next-french-presidential-election","slug":"next-french-presidential-election","title":"Next French Presidential Election","description":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:09:35.811900Z","end_date":"2027-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":128769924.136476,"volume_24hr":421928.76310499996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.73240661621094,"normalized_volume":79.33293914794922,"liquidity":16270502.58392,"open_interest":1091032.4880549998,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100282","slug":"french-election","label":"French Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Marine Le Pen","top_outcome_probability":0.3565,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.007000000000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-30013.377495000008,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","chart_24h":[275166.923466,272022.350769,285011.913827,284748.33923,274414.25015,274271.454309,306036.237026,305512.448842,303382.631194,303385.909583,299151.361336,326776.53369099996,302804.811191,313531.12571500003,302030.978669,301801.169753,291470.151985,320210.815295,388055.961109,390834.961626,351549.893225,369410.449392,358786.850562,386695.553733,416556.07167699997,435415.900281,431167.346255,430809.419713,431973.017284,428182.943525,427564.320618,423246.82565899997,423111.332493]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"149565","ticker":"russia-parliamentary-election-winner","slug":"russia-parliamentary-election-winner","title":"Russia Parliamentary Election Winner","description":"Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.\n\nNote: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T21:27:45.212078Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3628815.8267629994,"volume_24hr":229298.62237500004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":63.293792724609375,"normalized_volume":51.9048957824707,"liquidity":887476.64263,"open_interest":453180.79889599996,"categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104722","slug":"russia-election","label":"Russia Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"United Russia (ER)","top_outcome_probability":0.9885,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.006000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":220266.26159700006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:03.008650Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:03.008650Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-winner","chart_24h":[3425.74285,3452.42485,3443.835958,3446.856958,3479.536458,3506.518458,2927.035279,2938.981279,2936.940279,2948.125279,2951.726279,3012.450029,2213.040029,2028.183029,2025.802029,2042.176279,2099.045279,588.617235,843.2642349999999,69243.474235,139297.333035,139290.218635,223905.86112600006,223906.47112600002,223912.21112600004,228453.63512600007,228461.07812600004,228515.31062600005,229319.51662600006,229316.92687600004,229317.41604200006,229315.20479200003,229302.95879200002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"81557","ticker":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","slug":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","title":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","description":"Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-15T00:27:02.243822Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36358853.826123,"volume_24hr":170244.203229,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.43651580810547,"normalized_volume":68.95175170898438,"liquidity":2360685.70878,"open_interest":1425287.1978840001,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"103026","slug":"trump-netanyahu","label":"Trump-Netanyahu"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Gadi Eizenkot","top_outcome_probability":0.5435,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.023499999999999965,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":19518.759595000003,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","chart_24h":[236210.111352,235931.585988,235172.32287,228828.84537,228856.472341,204281.268065,259792.062253,273300.262262,269976.960413,269593.704997,269513.444554,269458.338951,269987.630648,269112.812553,267093.40358600003,268379.622979,268348.318324,267607.435048,273194.793315,272204.484421,277489.977382,273018.983042,270366.419492,279093.592778,240355.14860000001,240115.720318,225485.050578,225490.455429,180525.88509300002,181890.96836300002,140838.000372,170849.598872,172989.189817]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73223","ticker":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","slug":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","title":"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025-uyYzbnJj0tjS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025-uyYzbnJj0tjS.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T19:35:55.838000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":945601.8817080002,"volume_24hr":144773.492474,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.50809097290039,"normalized_volume":43.05699920654297,"liquidity":68398.0656,"open_interest":439073.449591,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.17,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.04000000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":97909.525593,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","chart_24h":[45477.583606999986,45358.19108,45383.96569599999,46968.66022799999,72717.52186,72817.04567299999,97151.23567299997,97298.29449699998,96882.41449699998,96875.27164099998,97035.85707599999,113330.74099499997,112895.74099599998,112909.07432999997,107735.64528499999,107735.64528499998,107644.699096,108554.82481099998,108961.401481,108860.958625,110094.75862499996,109446.58672499999,111188.45339299999,110189.726252,112245.36237799999,114151.07666699999,132660.73668499998,132858.864041,113142.13977399998,121127.14418299995,142163.804458,144511.24054399997,142486.223737]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34044","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:37:56.300000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41076017.597543836,"volume_24hr":110164.29352600002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.998741149902344,"normalized_volume":69.92147827148438,"liquidity":417597.52704,"open_interest":5651785.311889,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0395,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":80684.49350200001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","chart_24h":[29531.082075999995,32129.834675000002,32321.354675000002,32243.224675000005,32243.224675000005,32019.364675000004,31738.634111,31449.306154000005,39140.849001999995,38942.149002000006,36101.381001999995,36748.180463000004,36708.600714,32449.462041999996,30493.753749,30276.181645,29680.667566,29687.137565999998,110178.656127,110101.626127,110739.794496,111056.804931,109490.134114,109595.395693,111743.325605,113800.265605,114436.89301300001,113323.54608999999,116261.993687,116272.38869800001,115701.648796,110312.913526,110164.29352600002]},{"source":"manifold","id":"gECuP5ntsE","ticker":"gECuP5ntsE","slug":"will-the-next-millennium-problem-be-P89nScEZEt","title":"Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?","description":"Any successful proof seems likely to come from a team that includes both very good mathematicians and advanced AI programs. But which vibe will win credit in the public eye?\n\nIt's Google DeepMind, that's an AI lab. If it's Terrence Tao using GPT-6, that's a mathematics department. If it's David Budden using Claude, that's an AI lab. If the people involved are professors at a university, that's probably a mathematics department. If it seems the proof was marketing for an AI product, that's probably an AI lab.\n\nIf it's a frontier AI lab consulting with prominent mathematicians, that's still an AI lab driven solution.\n\nResolves based on my judgement. \n\nThere will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-21T05:01:53.606000Z","end_date":"2099-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14955.569318135284,"volume_24hr":4146.238929679039,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.63917541503906,"normalized_volume":34.22197341918945,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Culture","World","Science and Technology"],"tags":["millenium-prize-problems","culture-default","entertainment","news","science-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"AI lab","top_outcome_probability":0.969331,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.16476000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4146.238929679039,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T18:35:40.877697Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T18:35:40.877697Z","added_at":"2026-05-22T14:49:14.820535Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-next-millennium-problem-be-P89nScEZEt","chart_24h":[435.126774845817,435.126774845817,515.4819331823261,896.2389296790386,1646.2389296790386,4146.238929679039]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73130","ticker":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:52:17.414000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":65007166.545527995,"volume_24hr":93133.032266,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.387203216552734,"normalized_volume":73.63140869140625,"liquidity":664621.223,"open_interest":7489218.152733,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.155,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":53795.75107599999,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","chart_24h":[40745.78723799998,39948.52289900001,40122.522898999996,39938.17266899999,39920.04453499999,39920.04453500001,47631.58516,47662.588495,47692.908272,37692.698272,37192.674784999996,37348.834091,37641.45409099999,37199.587816,36823.528051999994,39629.843402,39318.964801,37685.82341,36120.244342,35662.226669,35641.183336,44408.617837000005,44104.448614,44773.494739,44676.494739,33001.632182,32434.402182,39203.151098999995,39041.969938999995,39041.969939,39432.37854599999,91761.690173,93102.282266]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"204972","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","title":"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T22:50:20.967509Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6626657.020972,"volume_24hr":87589.623535,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.11665344238281,"normalized_volume":56.11945724487305,"liquidity":1974687.92422,"open_interest":434184.389728,"categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Flávio Bolsonaro","top_outcome_probability":0.85,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04500000000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":19927.230181,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:13.570375Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:13.570375Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","chart_24h":[15865.127505,15984.318618,15981.978618,16223.068618,16442.868137999998,18617.32158,19941.104373,22803.467357,36374.076231,31716.473181,31675.154135,31680.384135,31764.744135,31819.904135,32041.934135,32142.804135000002,32130.394498,32154.354498,31953.74363,32025.663630000003,32025.663630000003,41246.508884,39218.885984,39004.775984,39640.555984,39647.145984,39606.183259000005,41267.027327,41253.867327,62947.142539,69893.762539,81198.792767,81390.972767]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"166435","ticker":"next-prime-minister-of-sweden","slug":"next-prime-minister-of-sweden","title":"Next Prime Minister of Sweden","description":"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner-IocfiwWAt86R.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner-IocfiwWAt86R.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T20:34:34.381805Z","end_date":"2026-09-13T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4977317.872678,"volume_24hr":75468.777257,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.39264678955078,"normalized_volume":54.09912109375,"liquidity":1308854.86138,"open_interest":381812.965123,"categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"191","slug":"sweden","label":"Sweden"},{"id":"103150","slug":"swedish","label":"Swedish"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"106088","slug":"sweden-elections","label":"Sweden Elections"},{"id":"106091","slug":"sweden-parliamentary-elections","label":"Sweden Parliamentary Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Magdalena Andersson","top_outcome_probability":0.785,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-10674.693476000004,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:05.518214Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:05.518214Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden","chart_24h":[83734.195705,92405.220042,93687.75447,93914.236362,96715.204637,96717.846687,102541.838417,102048.952701,105592.30245,108255.992462,105987.358422,90255.147057,96603.892104,102401.562104,101718.64958499999,101691.642955,100320.687213,100290.405379,72411.690854,75445.889667,79823.029665,79795.810036,69206.719745,68815.536479,77010.305332,78465.63127299999,77763.55764,77632.512666,77701.996029,76197.691939,78578.4084,77181.28031999999,75334.534488]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31195","ticker":"putin-out-before-2027","slug":"putin-out-before-2027","title":"Putin out as President of Russia by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-06T22:30:10.584000Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23155113.278957997,"volume_24hr":72295.963412,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.048397064208984,"normalized_volume":65.42375183105469,"liquidity":849918.98992,"open_interest":8955080.085453,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999981,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2871.1167639999985,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[190373.91047700003,197008.95689200002,196959.95689200002,197099.956892,202223.45775300002,202259.172039,187590.94907300003,198043.479134,198201.41917100002,199291.35917100002,198763.503457,201933.716987,204615.61698700002,189459.79041800002,175103.09850100003,160484.537645,147989.629441,148029.951941,151074.631296,140219.503123,140715.36312300002,140711.47229600002,161810.27938800002,161134.46794200002,156721.62177200004,156759.028345,72932.57098,72352.554608,70568.62913700001,72741.15913700001,70798.06845,72624.57245,72601.403868]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"204566","ticker":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner","title":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner-ehbYaMRJMGc4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner-ehbYaMRJMGc4.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T20:20:00.713944Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":841102.3790359999,"volume_24hr":74748.28081699998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.78731155395508,"normalized_volume":42.31216049194336,"liquidity":310853.48429,"open_interest":163664.49156599998,"categories":["World","Elections","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"103725","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern","label":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"AfD","top_outcome_probability":0.79,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":48250.43997199998,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:13.570375Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:13.570375Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner","chart_24h":[23915.970313,26485.797906000003,26223.749715,26144.565138,25823.195138000003,25820.375138000003,25922.070791000006,25924.634891,26236.187342,26236.187342,27593.307831000002,27780.807831000006,29960.707831000007,29986.717831,30850.340652,31929.339783,31929.339783,31794.929783000003,31769.896045,31771.178095000003,31753.510805,31717.272041,31607.578485000002,30818.573067999998,30794.573067999998,30215.257891,29337.526096999998,11317.243441999999,10786.510623999999,10079.13379,13819.469625,53760.82712299998,70589.133662]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"60182","ticker":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","slug":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","title":"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.\n\nIf multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.\n\nIf no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-16T22:30:31.859771Z","end_date":"2026-10-10T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23789412.015067004,"volume_24hr":64739.843818,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.9874267578125,"normalized_volume":65.6324691772461,"liquidity":1754604.71312,"open_interest":1258533.3908270001,"categories":["Culture","Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"18","slug":"awards","label":"Awards"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yulia Navalnaya","top_outcome_probability":0.075,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-800.5402570000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","chart_24h":[20546.729461,24522.397373,23415.683899,23639.806879,22105.777616,22101.794616,73251.170127,73019.960127,73524.042868,73961.758284,73961.335937,74158.977684,73863.594214,73931.312714,74060.26329,62161.88429,62144.448582,66425.768582,66571.290582,66596.69948,66535.24498,66662.668038,66347.721082,65928.11157,65945.94657,65879.66957,65976.548627,65940.739794,65945.520794,64772.559794,64716.985074,64744.753399,64735.989899]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"606452","ticker":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-september-20260616002734979","slug":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-september-20260616002734979","title":"Bank of Japan Decision in September?","description":"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-17T23:32:33.975876Z","end_date":"2026-09-18T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":686248.066606,"volume_24hr":44937.8231,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.68264389038086,"normalized_volume":41.08980178833008,"liquidity":109895.96031,"open_interest":223962.528677,"categories":["World","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"102990","slug":"boj","label":"BOJ"},{"id":"101522","slug":"japan","label":"Japan"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"103176","slug":"Global-Rates","label":"Global Rates"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"25 bps increase","top_outcome_probability":0.9765,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.005499999999999949,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":19691.054139,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:31.753008Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:31.753008Z","added_at":"2026-06-18T00:11:25.618251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-september-20260616002734979","chart_24h":[4744.713040000001,5389.338573000001,5564.330599000001,5564.330599000001,14450.154753,23070.838692,23070.838692,23070.838692,23470.838692,23987.958636000003,24818.109741,25792.660846,33630.646043,33630.646043,33493.031366,33498.741366,36474.611482,36693.210827,36693.210827,36693.210827,36610.710827,37570.24966,44404.101271,46561.706270999995,46561.706270999995,46149.007384,46459.235957000004,44730.295957,45339.225956999995,45539.225957,45539.225957,44937.8231,44937.8231]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"30828","ticker":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","title":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/xi-jinping-out-in-2025-EjF4SM20eaa3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/xi-jinping-out-in-2025-EjF4SM20eaa3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-03T20:37:00.228000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13084293.343080984,"volume_24hr":40695.82241300001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.804100036621094,"normalized_volume":61.093536376953125,"liquidity":220027.76602,"open_interest":3741151.799733,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"103715","slug":"hfc","label":"HFC"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"366","slug":"world-affairs","label":"world affairs"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"101253","slug":"macro-geopolitics","label":"Macro Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0385,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4040.8345670000126,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[36654.98784599999,36654.987845999996,36634.987845999996,36624.987845999996,36666.647846,36666.647846,36916.657846,36930.88449600001,36915.226877,36915.17687700001,36915.176877,36958.220202000004,34874.710201999995,34340.670202,33736.130202,35215.730202,34827.155202,34827.155202,12378.509352,12318.997449,12318.997448999999,13995.437448999995,43920.833814,44049.038943,44177.248943,44290.248943,44290.278943,44794.398943,44894.598943,45022.80407199999,45022.804072,44959.984072,40695.82241300001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"634802","ticker":"iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","slug":"iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","title":"Iran full airspace closure by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028-7rbGPCHobYvq.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028-7rbGPCHobYvq.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:23:30.308911Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9398775.41098801,"volume_24hr":37054.90406,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.704036712646484,"normalized_volume":58.650718688964844,"liquidity":32706.2742,"open_interest":315146.4411439999,"categories":["World"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104129","slug":"close","label":"close"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.305,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5893.876582000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:31.753008Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:31.753008Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:39:37.141257Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","chart_24h":[36584.263897,33034.333897000004,45690.149447,45687.399447,46131.839447,46131.839447000006,46081.789446999996,45672.789447,46437.639447,43226.859447,43650.849447,41722.80944700001,41646.629447,41461.960358000004,33985.390376,33985.390376,34121.754013000005,34121.754013,33881.134013,33881.134013,34646.922893,35147.114003,35147.114003,27018.684632,26978.634632,26878.634632,29875.190187999997,30071.830188,25071.830188,19669.600188,21465.093892,35823.734059,35896.80406]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34051","ticker":"netanyahu-out-before-2027","slug":"netanyahu-out-before-2027","title":"Netanyahu out by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/netanyahu-out-in-2025-Vc7bE4GtiJzM.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/netanyahu-out-in-2025-Vc7bE4GtiJzM.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:38:14.261000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":124222681.7273956,"volume_24hr":29982.805937000005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.149173736572266,"normalized_volume":79.02777862548828,"liquidity":96200.126,"open_interest":440375.291575,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.535,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-13217.08089099999,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[43256.998398,44036.548398,44040.598398,44038.598398,44038.598398,44038.598398,43192.886733,42673.23032100001,42700.230321,42700.230321,42700.230321,62306.40333400001,58951.673099,58951.67309900001,61482.189390000014,61482.18938999999,61244.453542,61244.453542,61244.45354200001,61258.05417200001,61260.124171999996,63464.89021099999,62118.63790499999,56308.50489299998,56228.10489299998,55389.519988999986,58658.763534999984,58659.870397999985,58679.87039799998,58679.87039799998,37653.929195000004,29394.746722000007,29984.766722000008]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"976909","ticker":"israel-election-zionist-home-yashar-run-on-same-list","slug":"israel-election-zionist-home-yashar-run-on-same-list","title":"Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?","description":"Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Zionist Home and Yashar contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.\n\nIf candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nStatements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.\n\nIf the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-06T16:47:47Z","end_date":"2026-09-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24702.711015999997,"volume_24hr":23644.397669,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.13782501220703,"normalized_volume":23.275938034057617,"liquidity":13868.48527,"open_interest":16988.405565,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.9925,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.49850000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":22918.326147000003,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:31:46.063160Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:31:46.063160Z","added_at":"2026-09-06T17:01:20.962256Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-zionist-home-yashar-run-on-same-list","chart_24h":[35.831522,35.831522,10.005085000000001,5934.793185000001,5934.793185000001,5952.813185000001,6706.783185,7119.941645000001,7119.941645000001,7119.941645000001,7314.741645000001,7314.741645000001,7338.292227000002,7338.292227000001,7338.292227000001,7338.292227000001,7351.242227000001,7400.522227000001,7400.522227000001,7400.522227000001,7667.539898000001,8669.677466000001,8669.677466000001,8669.677466000001,8676.477466000002,16849.825766,16856.870720000003,16856.870720000003,16856.870720000003,16975.559,23597.219419,23626.309419,23644.397669]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"72347","ticker":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-03T23:52:00.295000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25670500.198711976,"volume_24hr":31411.726755000007,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.82455825805664,"normalized_volume":66.21932983398438,"liquidity":618918.3438,"open_interest":4681246.049165,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.065,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20946.433278000004,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[1830.3434770000001,2043.756854,1757.756854,1757.7568540000002,8741.244514,8741.244514,8741.244514,8609.866218,10116.983878000001,10116.983878000001,10959.843878,11651.263485000001,11651.263485,11675.199656000003,11655.949656000003,11277.321998000001,11418.044340000002,11418.044340000002,11626.804128000003,12792.714128000001,14935.571271,14927.443613000001,14868.588297,14868.588297,14868.588297,14868.588297,14575.782981000002,14569.916387000001,14569.916387000001,15169.922102,15482.080161000003,22940.090161000004,22774.006755000006]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"139507","ticker":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","slug":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","description":"If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september-9bs9igLMW6m1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september-9bs9igLMW6m1.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T08:07:20.074000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21864881.954657964,"volume_24hr":21922.663334,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.507545471191406,"normalized_volume":64.98213958740234,"liquidity":121396.5315,"open_interest":524801.512158,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103995","slug":"shah","label":"shah"},{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.045,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":21913.483334,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:03.008650Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:03.008650Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","chart_24h":[9.18,9.18,9.18,18169.583334,18169.583334,18169.583334,19927.853334,19927.853334,19922.853334,19922.853334,19976.853334,19976.853334,20876.843334,20876.843334,20876.843334,20876.843334,20874.413334,20924.413334,20924.413334,20922.663334,20922.663334,21722.663334,21722.663334,21722.663334,21722.663334,21922.663334,21922.663334,21922.663334,21922.663334,21922.663334,21922.663334,21922.663334]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"528389","ticker":"where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678","slug":"where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678","title":"Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No meeting by December 31\" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.\n\nAn exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.\n\nFor this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/where-will-the-next-meeting-between-trump-and-putin-take-plce-ksaAP8PAZSZb.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/where-will-the-next-meeting-between-trump-and-putin-take-plce-ksaAP8PAZSZb.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T22:50:37.503067Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":911696.1237329999,"volume_24hr":18538.309401,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.441856384277344,"normalized_volume":42.84463119506836,"liquidity":505752.31196,"open_interest":78631.133828,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"China","top_outcome_probability":0.495,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3903.318005,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:28.016330Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:28.016330Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T22:57:03.302188Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678","chart_24h":[6926.931035,6943.931035,6943.931035,6974.059245,6974.0592449999995,6956.969245,6900.969245,7102.029245,8115.8576140000005,8875.565042,8872.165042,9181.824898,6376.430763,6309.770763,5759.089995,5750.449995,12752.413885,12278.653885,12095.162348,11957.081862,12166.594059000001,12362.672491,13683.242005,13616.242005,13691.242005,13691.242005,13685.242005,13650.242005,15005.420188,19589.310188,19755.247994,19278.622609000002,19266.497609000002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"48930","ticker":"nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","slug":"nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","title":"NATO x Russia military clash by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nInterception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.\n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.\n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-23T20:22:28.888089Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6726524.581691002,"volume_24hr":18336.242422,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.61249542236328,"normalized_volume":56.23213195800781,"liquidity":108890.1012,"open_interest":679349.882631,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"},{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.215,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6258.263955999999,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","chart_24h":[19592.583923,19715.330651,21246.010651,20966.899524,20966.899524,20966.899524,20978.009524,21074.069524,21074.069524,11700.106797,10550.116797,10625.19394,10882.066363,10584.026765999999,9338.007435,9769.190231,9990.548209,10092.543266,10058.673703999999,12076.013704,12502.402594,12248.628721000001,11899.933071,16565.379926999998,20503.612574,20604.008969,21326.459238,20751.459238,21081.88576,21172.691623,20520.927072,20447.341618,17403.525148999997]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"74056","ticker":"where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next","slug":"where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next","title":"Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to \"No meeting before 2027\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-in-another-country-754-536-882-631-152-Sivx1Fw9C2UJ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-in-another-country-754-536-882-631-152-Sivx1Fw9C2UJ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-06T15:54:52.539904Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3302745.7559729996,"volume_24hr":17171.495417000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.503658294677734,"normalized_volume":51.259822845458984,"liquidity":702548.26534,"open_interest":121594.097705,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No meeting before 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.915,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-98.645375,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next","chart_24h":[1051.007826,1039.041493,1038.213827,1055.562027,1047.391943,1054.441943,1061.290776,1054.188778,1070.073778,1078.669012,1086.5833460000001,866.297762,864.049762,869.823678,877.028011,529.389011,8544.995011,8587.573345,8590.08208,8595.14308,8592.22108,8588.95508,11610.269853,11920.214351999999,11910.106353,11920.263351,12453.686684,12148.12985,12160.02135,12830.225468,14227.841334,16791.552834000002,17171.454084]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73056","ticker":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","slug":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","title":"Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:57:39.192000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2712398.485697998,"volume_24hr":17144.017111,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.447601318359375,"normalized_volume":49.9234619140625,"liquidity":97828.7365,"open_interest":274019.260208,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.105,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.030000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":16651.517111,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","chart_24h":[1614.7183909999999,1614.7183909999999,1614.7183909999999,1613.2183909999999,1613.2183909999999,1613.2183909999999,1613.2183909999999,2238.1083909999998,5873.458391,5673.458391,5673.458391,5678.458391,5678.458391,5678.458391,5678.458391,5678.458391,5678.458391,5678.458391,5678.458391,5678.458391,5847.683777,6001.993777000001,6001.993777000001,6022.833777000001,6022.833777000001,10297.047111000002,10297.047111000003,11014.047111,11114.047111,11114.047111000003,15449.047111000002,16371.017111000003,17053.017111]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"95248","ticker":"berlin-state-election-winner","slug":"berlin-state-election-winner","title":"Berlin State Election Winner","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/berlin-state-election-winner-1CAHVXlT8kYr.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/berlin-state-election-winner-1CAHVXlT8kYr.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-02T11:38:43.603000Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3529336.7337190015,"volume_24hr":15530.209116999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.81227111816406,"normalized_volume":51.71403884887695,"liquidity":483002.69708,"open_interest":183186.743476,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Linke","top_outcome_probability":0.465,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2333.5390380000003,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:58.374353Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:58.374353Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-winner","chart_24h":[16661.288156,17335.980939,17397.923774,17902.139811,17606.324556,17662.114273,17776.755086,17687.46936,17673.498363,17691.699011,17524.32829,24369.186807,21280.315930999997,21115.222032,21133.999285,20899.100591000002,20805.611815,20802.901814999997,20742.488105999997,20514.134373999997,21045.847244,20844.180802,20718.829398,21004.739681,21011.053099,21251.053099,21025.655686000002,21723.499381,17625.27119,18170.65119,18235.023361,17797.453361,15760.959116999999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"745229","ticker":"china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932","slug":"china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932","title":"China x Philippines military clash before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-philippines-military-clash-by-snG6EYjptORn.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-philippines-military-clash-by-snG6EYjptORn.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-24T21:54:49.344544Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":414097.5877760001,"volume_24hr":15642.928816,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.751930236816406,"normalized_volume":38.05894088745117,"liquidity":57864.1976,"open_interest":351698.872227,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.275,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":14596.864109999999,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:55.266316Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:55.266316Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T22:06:48.686015Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932","chart_24h":[1046.0647060000001,1050.350421,1100.4789930000002,1128.6575650000002,1132.9432800000002,1132.94328,654.866392,654.8663919999999,444.493802,444.49380199999996,440.234544,383.241161,269.631161,288.855448,14993.135448,14997.421163,14997.421163,14997.421163,14997.421163,15573.624559,15644.585292,15650.156721,15640.938071,15568.4895,15622.848072,15645.668543,15645.668543,15645.668543,15645.668543,15645.668543,15642.928816,15642.928816,15642.928816]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34052","ticker":"zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","slug":"zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","title":"Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-october-31-vvfzvJSdhPij.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-october-31-vvfzvJSdhPij.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:37:37.149000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3163320.2578210006,"volume_24hr":15410.302944,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.63179397583008,"normalized_volume":50.965660095214844,"liquidity":124246.6257,"open_interest":745027.489285,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.075,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1846.111125000003,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","chart_24h":[17311.969625,17311.969625,17311.969625,17311.969625,17311.969625,17311.969625,16953.269625,16982.049625,16982.049625,16982.049625,16878.716293,16988.433685,17180.795233,14933.915233,14933.915233,14933.915233,14932.839966,14932.839966,14932.839966,14980.241401,14980.241401,14980.241401,15091.352513,15091.352513,14091.352513,14091.352513,22214.377296,27898.582071,27898.582071,27951.352071,15437.042075,15432.042075,15410.302944]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"281145","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:32:00.623000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3104707.5570139997,"volume_24hr":13779.561013999997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.74085235595703,"normalized_volume":50.8383674621582,"liquidity":250607.2669,"open_interest":876664.422895,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.105,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4127.042729999997,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:15.316925Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:15.316925Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","chart_24h":[9652.518284,9592.866603,9532.866603,9532.866603,9532.866603,9532.866603,9552.866603,304.09660299999996,304.09660299999996,349.176603,349.176603,468.84326999999996,5988.936604000001,6015.808827000001,6015.808827000001,6053.136605000001,5931.459415,5979.780002999999,5994.310002999999,6031.667780999998,6031.667780999998,12827.857780999999,12827.857780999999,12827.857780999999,12827.857780999999,12827.857780999999,12836.187780999999,12836.187780999999,12836.187780999999,12836.187780999999,12881.642326999998,12870.470103999998,13779.561013999997]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"237598","ticker":"iran-leader-end-of-2026","slug":"iran-leader-end-of-2026","title":"Iran leader end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T00:15:11.057586Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":39348130.714807,"volume_24hr":10604.793952,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.17177963256836,"normalized_volume":69.57906341552734,"liquidity":2089935.88016,"open_interest":881115.5847290001,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"103796","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-100","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Mojtaba Khamenei","top_outcome_probability":0.852,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0044999999999999485,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2490.396109,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:13.570375Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:13.570375Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[20755.225875999997,21637.345876,21637.365876,21642.845876,21643.235876,21643.235876,12886.265876,12886.205876,12875.285876,12568.175876,12572.705876,12235.055876,12087.665989,11941.99287,11873.75287,11876.108578,11749.162484999999,11756.792485,11740.032485,11529.602485,11528.822484999999,12468.422485,12892.659153,12894.659153,13246.900827,13252.420827,14712.750827,10569.687827,8800.679827,9309.279827,9277.589827,12939.737826999999,11278.987827]},{"source":"opinion","id":"8453","ticker":null,"slug":"will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0x0a419b69ac11603d9239f6d10ca9edb6ea868b38ab0eb5808b1664632e71f9e8","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-02T08:12:10Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11462989.017,"volume_24hr":8686.887999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.69511795043945,"normalized_volume":63.53623962402344,"liquidity":0.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.054,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.054,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-17T16:21:48.913689Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T16:21:48.913689Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"rP0gSkoCniNTeQmDagJU","ticker":null,"slug":"if-trump-is-elected-will-there-be-a-40ca39e5dcec","title":"If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?","description":"If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat. \n\nThis market will resolve to NO otherwise.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-1bw27ghde1)Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios). The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it.\n\nIf the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-10T05:16:22.520000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":344435.48197373067,"volume_24hr":811.3186325897896,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.345096588134766,"normalized_volume":60.199546813964844,"liquidity":6990.75,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.074618,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?","top_outcome_probability":0.074618,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0015529999999999988,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":657.2882207758155,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Arky/if-trump-is-elected-will-there-be-a-40ca39e5dcec","chart_24h":[0.076171,0.076171,0.076171,0.076171,0.076171,0.076171,0.073923,0.073923,0.073923,0.073923,0.073923,0.073923,0.073923,0.074618,0.074618]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"204973","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place","title":"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T22:45:41.277693Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1022827.405248,"volume_24hr":9210.161668,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.572513580322266,"normalized_volume":43.56584167480469,"liquidity":804889.49626,"open_interest":139164.43319100002,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Augusto Cury","top_outcome_probability":0.5155,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0665,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3832.618829000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:13.570375Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:13.570375Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place","chart_24h":[897.297437,3213.695157,3248.695157,3242.255157,3356.9073670000002,3242.519458,5834.208198,5834.208198,5764.16506,5714.16506,5702.55506,5702.55506,5702.55506,5634.39506,5634.39506,5634.39506,5634.39506,5634.39506,5634.39506,5661.92506,5661.92506,5661.92506,5944.17506,5944.17506,6167.685060000001,6001.20506,6163.8807750000005,6043.438556,6039.491189,6070.196431,8650.656431000001,8661.315772,9155.161668]},{"source":"manifold","id":"L8EuhySAdp","ticker":null,"slug":"catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-UAuzRyILcp","title":"CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on February 28, 2027, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) or its controlled subsidiaries receive official government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium-bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves to NO.\n\nAcceptable Proof & Verification Sources:\n\nOfficial corporate regulatory filings or announcements from CATL (SZSE: 300750) on CNINFO or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE).\n\nOfficial government notices from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources or the Bureau of Natural Resources of Yichun, such as postings on the Jiangxi Public Resources Trading System.\n\nReports from reputable financial news publications (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Caixin, Jiemian News) confirming the official renewal of the permit.\n\nClarifications:\n\nProvisional or conditional approvals that explicitly allow CATL to resume mining activities at the Jianxiawo mine count as a YES.\n\nExploration-only permits, mineral processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other unrelated Yichun assets do not satisfy the criteria.\n\nChanges to the holding company name or minor adjustments to the asset's naming convention will still resolve YES as long as they explicitly apply to the same physical Jianxiawo mine.\n\nBackground\n\nIn August 2025, CATL suspended operations at its flagship Jianxiawo lepidolite clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi, after its mining license expired on August 9, 2025. The mine represents a critical domestic supply of lithium, previously estimated to account for roughly 6% of global lithium supply and 8% of China's total output.\n\nInitially expected to resume operations within a few months, the renewal process has faced significant delays due to heightened regulatory audit requirements from the local Bureau of Natural Resources, compliance reviews under China's revised Mineral Resources Law, and environmental standards. As of June 2026, CATL is still waiting for local regulators to grant the license renewal.\n\nThis description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T14:12:01.950000Z","end_date":"2027-02-28T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":821065.4751350099,"volume_24hr":752.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.5495719909668,"normalized_volume":68.68236541748047,"liquidity":105000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.871678,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.871678,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.006908000000000025,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-3071.192898249121,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T04:35:38.435096Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-UAuzRyILcp","chart_24h":[0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.878586,0.87445,0.87445,0.87445,0.87445,0.87445,0.87445,0.87445,0.871678]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73079","ticker":"which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026","slug":"which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026","title":"Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?","description":"If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2025-MFgaFiz7YhFu.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2025-MFgaFiz7YhFu.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T16:22:18.173968Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":645800.825006,"volume_24hr":8620.7945,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.11820983886719,"normalized_volume":40.71916961669922,"liquidity":18707.38846,"open_interest":73483.777025,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Ireland","top_outcome_probability":0.987,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0015000000000000568,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-98.571427,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026","chart_24h":[626.781427,626.781427,626.781427,528.21,528.21,528.21,538.21,538.21,538.21,538.21,538.21,538.21,538.21,538.21,538.21,487.77,487.77,487.77,487.77,57.0,57.0,57.0,57.0,57.0,57.0,57.0,597.7945,596.7945,596.7945,596.7945,570.7945,570.7945,8620.7945]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5uctcL2zNU","ticker":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":"world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","description":"I will not bet on this market.\n\nPlease feel free to add your own prop bets to the market.  Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.\n\nThis is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.\n\nI will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion.  I tend to pay attention to international news.\n\nAll questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have \"by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027\" as part of their resolution criteria. \n\nI will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.\n\nTo assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.\n\nI will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to.  If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution\n\nJordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords\n\nUpdate 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.\n\n1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI\n\nUpdate 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether a suicide linked to a chatbot would count for a hypothetical prop bet, the creator specified their resolution criteria:\n\nThere must be a direct correlation between the AI's actions and the death.\n\nThe AI must be behaving like a rogue AI (maliciously, unpredictably, or contrary to its programming). An AI acting as it was designed would not meet this bar.\n\nCambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025\n\nUpdate 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the prop bet concerning a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, the creator has specified the resolution criteria:\n\nThis will resolve to YES if the current ceasefire lasts for 7 days.\n\nMarket Start Date\n\nUpdate 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market covers conflicts from June 25, 2025 through the end of 2027.\n\nYahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)\n\nThe creator initially planned to resolve this to NO because Yahya Sinwar is dead and posthumous trials are extremely rare (last known example being Nuremberg Trials)\n\nHowever, the creator has agreed that if a posthumous prosecution is initiated, the market can be re-resolved by moderators\n\nThis means the market may initially resolve NO but could be changed to YES later if posthumous proceedings occur\n\nHumans will extinct\n\nUpdate 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The \"Humans will extinct\" answer will NOT be resolved N/A. The creator has been convinced that this question has value and is resolvable as worded, and will keep it open on the market.\n\nFormal declaration of War\n\nUpdate 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For any answer involving a formal declaration of war by the United States:\n\nA statement by Donald Trump (or any President) declaring war does NOT meet the criteria\n\nMust be done through Congress as a legislative declaration of war\n\n\"Formally\" on this market means done through official channels per the pertinent country's laws\n\nIran loses territory\n\nUpdate 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve based on internationally recognized border changes. Temporary occupations or withdrawals that do not result in formally recognized changes to Iran's borders would not count.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":78376.1367611246,"volume_24hr":673.3983592925242,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.40912628173828,"normalized_volume":47.03147506713867,"liquidity":28557.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":["geopolitics","politics-default","wars","world-default","middle-east"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T17:01:19.417594Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T17:01:19.417594Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","chart_24h":[15.0,600.0,663.0,663.0,673.3983592925242]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73078","ticker":"will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027","slug":"will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027","title":"Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-march-31-2025-GVssS0pD-aSa.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-march-31-2025-GVssS0pD-aSa.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T20:16:54.421000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1078371.1881129995,"volume_24hr":6995.449085,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.563411712646484,"normalized_volume":43.900062561035156,"liquidity":35479.0613,"open_interest":118563.642309,"categories":["Politics","Crypto","Economy","World"],"tags":[{"id":"105292","slug":"crypto-legal","label":"Crypto Legal"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"21","slug":"crypto","label":"Crypto"},{"id":"235","slug":"bitcoin","label":"Bitcoin"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.015,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.005500000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3425.9726930000006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:53.605363Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027","chart_24h":[3569.4763919999973,3569.4763919999996,3573.5572099999995,3573.5572099999995,3683.2172099999993,3683.2172099999993,9395.781659999999,9400.870111999999,9384.32916,9384.32916,9384.32916,9339.50166,9373.881660000001,8917.038193,7709.347241,7693.567241,7705.242307,7705.242307,7720.470707,7720.4707069999995,7720.4707069999995,7720.4707069999995,7701.820707,7762.734373,7762.734373,7646.249885,6986.769085,6995.449085,6995.449085,6995.449085,6995.449085,6995.449085,6995.449085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"808768","ticker":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-2nd-place-20260806103311321","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-2nd-place-20260806103311321","title":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner-ehbYaMRJMGc4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner-ehbYaMRJMGc4.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-07T00:57:36.857622Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":54850.05513400001,"volume_24hr":7710.208584999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.25209426879883,"normalized_volume":27.000102996826172,"liquidity":163794.92451,"open_interest":13139.549439000002,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"103725","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern","label":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"SPD","top_outcome_probability":0.775,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":727.2185850000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:47:21.983383Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:47:21.983383Z","added_at":"2026-08-07T01:13:40.869190Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-2nd-place-20260806103311321","chart_24h":[2539.21291,2544.3229100000003,2390.26291,2390.26291,2076.89291,2076.89291,2076.89291,1858.062078,1858.062078,1858.062078,1858.062078,1858.062078,2514.248442,3028.438442,3528.438442,3528.438442,3528.438442,3528.438442,3528.438442,3528.438442,3548.438442,3548.438442,3548.438442,3448.438442,3950.6384420000004,3843.148442,3843.148442,2359.446364,2359.446364,4154.976364,4670.2863640000005,5091.2863640000005,6704.858585]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"779132","ticker":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-october-20260731151537","slug":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-october-20260731151537","title":"Bank of Japan Decision in October?","description":"The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-31T23:42:47.448558Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":76274.0232,"volume_24hr":6067.247541,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.548601150512695,"normalized_volume":28.753808975219727,"liquidity":16312.76422,"open_interest":11382.245862,"categories":["World","Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"102990","slug":"boj","label":"BOJ"},{"id":"101522","slug":"japan","label":"Japan"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"103176","slug":"Global-Rates","label":"Global Rates"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No change","top_outcome_probability":0.82,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":271.84800300000006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:47:09.878533Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:47:09.878533Z","added_at":"2026-07-31T23:51:45.066882Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-october-20260731151537","chart_24h":[1107.424937,1107.424937,1732.906919,2386.913978,5550.572478,5550.572478,5550.572478,5550.572478,5552.632478,5552.632478,5552.632478,5219.027768,5229.047768,5077.805268,4720.320481000001,4720.320481000001,4720.320481000001,4721.550481,4721.550481,4721.550481,4721.550481,4721.550481,4645.237541,6044.237541,6201.237541,6176.237541,6116.237541,6107.267541,6097.6175410000005,6088.247541,6087.247541,6087.247541,6087.247541]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"881785","ticker":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-linke-vote-share","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-linke-vote-share","title":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/de-linke-f78fbf312c.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/de-linke-f78fbf312c.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T18:35:05Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":31855.830443,"volume_24hr":6047.682579,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.50140953063965,"normalized_volume":24.461030960083008,"liquidity":73192.44743,"open_interest":12411.087862,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"103725","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern","label":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"8-11%","top_outcome_probability":0.585,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-3312.673333,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:48:22.606888Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:48:22.606888Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T20:04:13.768807Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-linke-vote-share","chart_24h":[13641.625659,13039.905659,13360.905659,13360.905659,13456.315659,13481.315659,13481.315659,13637.145659,13637.145659,13637.145659,13672.452323,6001.510423,5561.403755,5561.403755,5587.510419,5635.840419,5635.840419,5635.840419,5635.840419,5652.5070860000005,5652.5070860000005,5652.5070860000005,5647.0070860000005,5733.687086,5719.602579,5719.602579,5684.432579,5684.432579,5684.432579,5796.632579,5796.632579,6047.682579,6047.682579]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"808769","ticker":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-20260806103335438","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-20260806103335438","title":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner-ehbYaMRJMGc4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner-ehbYaMRJMGc4.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-07T00:59:32.206372Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40243.475194,"volume_24hr":5649.696217,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.429174423217773,"normalized_volume":25.568235397338867,"liquidity":116907.85291,"open_interest":10574.851228,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"103725","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern","label":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Linke","top_outcome_probability":0.745,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.06000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1264.153848,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:47:21.983383Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:47:21.983383Z","added_at":"2026-08-07T01:13:40.869190Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-20260806103335438","chart_24h":[3468.613979,3468.613979,3468.6139789999997,3468.6139789999997,3468.6139789999997,3468.613979,3403.453979,3403.453979,3403.453979,3403.453979,3403.453979,3403.453979,3117.647827,2184.997827,2279.587827,2279.587827,2279.587827,2279.587827,2229.587827,2229.587827,2229.587827,2229.587827,2213.747827,2213.747827,2213.747827,1654.507827,1654.507827,1714.907827,1714.907827,3042.1478270000002,5131.007827,6946.047827,5987.56]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tt0Uy260hp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","title":"Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.\n\nThis includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:\n\nRevolution\n\nCivil war\n\nMilitary coup\n\nVoluntary abdication of power\n\nEstablishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority\n\nTo qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:\n\nThe core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND\n\nThe regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population\n\nExample of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T00:31:28.667000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3050889.887364875,"volume_24hr":550.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.36829948425293,"normalized_volume":82.56009674072266,"liquidity":10010.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.053295,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.053295,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0010249999999999981,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-646.4003662411951,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.05432,0.053757,0.053757,0.053757,0.053757,0.053295,0.053295,0.053295]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"33647","ticker":"will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025","slug":"will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025","title":"Will Russia capture Lyman by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025-S9G0KfdR8jyZ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025-S9G0KfdR8jyZ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-22T21:41:18.897452Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3009422.929203002,"volume_24hr":5450.2200410000005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.800243377685547,"normalized_volume":50.62656784057617,"liquidity":35391.47246,"open_interest":160719.48474500002,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"366","slug":"world-affairs","label":"world affairs"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102475","slug":"russia-capture","label":"Russia Capture"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.145,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.01999999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-6328.816291,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:51.712842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025","chart_24h":[12149.610332,12149.610332,12055.935332,12055.935332,12060.915332,12060.915332,14856.495331999997,15070.415331999999,13327.476757,14171.583232,14171.583232,14171.583232,14171.583232,14171.583232,14167.763232000001,14167.763232,14180.523232,13185.525041,12025.815041000002,11943.945041,11943.945041,11943.945041,12790.725041,12863.865041000001,12863.865041000001,12763.865041000001,13045.87974,12917.899739999999,7299.89974,6191.873461,5644.030041,5594.030041,5486.030041]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9cN6yR8nCq","ticker":null,"slug":"clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","title":"CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if H.R. 3633, the \"Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025\" (CLARITY Act) is signed into law during 2026.\n\nhttps://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633\n\nIf this exact bill fails but a substantially similar bill passes, I will use my best judgment to decide the resolution based on market commentary. I will likely bet on this market, so caveat emptor.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-21T23:57:52.923000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":112426.49730810238,"volume_24hr":501.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.449399948120117,"normalized_volume":50.09101867675781,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.15373,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.15373,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.016270000000000007,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":391.08175492138554,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:44.095655Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T10:43:08.134830Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Techiavellian/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.166544,0.15356,0.15356,0.15356,0.15356,0.15356,0.15356,0.15356,0.15356,0.15356,0.15373,0.15373]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"281143","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:27:41.000868Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2095484.7417810003,"volume_24hr":5095.267933,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.27395248413086,"normalized_volume":48.19949722290039,"liquidity":96015.12767,"open_interest":351854.700944,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0055,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-243.55664199999956,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:15.316925Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:15.316925Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","chart_24h":[5592.384575,5592.384575,5592.384575,5592.384575,5592.384575,5592.384575,4549.066973000001,4613.686973,4793.975306,8647.715305999998,8650.901106,8673.94215,8623.08215,8620.06215,8630.357217,8630.357217,8627.33607,8627.33607,8624.314923,8735.872523,8733.852523,5173.852523,5223.852523,5223.852523,5203.711666,5203.711666,5203.711666,5143.711666,5195.972866,5195.972866,5095.267933,5095.267933,5095.267933]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"881714","ticker":"berlin-state-election-grune-vote-share","slug":"berlin-state-election-grune-vote-share","title":"Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/de-grune-f13c0c0f15.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/de-grune-f13c0c0f15.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T18:21:57Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25595.927647,"volume_24hr":4914.092827,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.072166442871094,"normalized_volume":23.439697265625,"liquidity":39491.45925,"open_interest":12783.215479999999,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103724","slug":"berlin","label":"Berlin"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"14-17%","top_outcome_probability":0.455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.019999999999999962,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":938.136062,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:48:22.606888Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:48:22.606888Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T20:04:12.401648Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-grune-vote-share","chart_24h":[1523.106452,1523.106452,1486.846452,1486.846452,2634.626452,2634.626452,2783.246363,2788.246363,2789.006363,2789.006363,2789.006363,2794.006363,2544.006363,2544.006363,2514.006363,2514.006363,2632.006363,2632.006363,2632.006363,2632.006363,2632.006363,3691.012827,4397.102827,4397.102827,4396.102827,4396.102827,4396.102827,4396.102827,4396.102827,4396.102827,4786.102827,4952.092827,4952.092827]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"881786","ticker":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-bsw-vote-share","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-bsw-vote-share","title":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/de-bsw-56ef366131.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/de-bsw-56ef366131.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T18:35:12Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19578.639403,"volume_24hr":4839.588936,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.909961700439453,"normalized_volume":22.21834373474121,"liquidity":102003.92845,"open_interest":6306.381213,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"103725","slug":"mecklenburg-vorpommern","label":"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"3-5%","top_outcome_probability":0.455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.05499999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1167.258937,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:48:22.606888Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:48:22.606888Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T20:04:13.768807Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-bsw-vote-share","chart_24h":[9015.10541,9025.10541,9088.10541,9463.530022,9472.010588000001,9472.010588000001,9372.010588,9372.010588,9372.570588,9372.570588,9372.570588,5545.852586,5195.852586,5080.846497,5020.858936,5000.858936,5000.858936,5000.858936,5000.858936,5000.858936,5019.588936,5019.588936,5019.588936,5019.588936,5019.588936,5019.588936,5019.588936,5019.588936,5019.588936,5019.588936,4889.588936,4889.588936,4839.588936]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"83798","ticker":"china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027","slug":"china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027","title":"China x Japan military clash before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027-S3WQfSEVZxJ8.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027-S3WQfSEVZxJ8.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-18T15:44:07.161000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1336397.8229959998,"volume_24hr":4735.629149,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.757091522216797,"normalized_volume":45.2664794921875,"liquidity":64875.3236,"open_interest":500840.587142,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103715","slug":"hfc","label":"HFC"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101522","slug":"japan","label":"Japan"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.065,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3244.8491490000006,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1490.78,1567.98,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1712.64,1723.6200000000001,1723.6200000000001,1723.6200000000001,1723.6200000000001,1723.6200000000001,1723.6200000000001,4730.31,4730.31,4730.31,4730.31,4735.629149,4735.629149,4735.629149]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"80824","ticker":"will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027","slug":"will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027","title":"Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. \n\nIf a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nAny agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-Cu1RIKFPKl3v.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-Cu1RIKFPKl3v.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T21:39:03.996000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":809340.4745999998,"volume_24hr":4184.532224,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.893619537353516,"normalized_volume":42.10485076904297,"liquidity":34507.0957,"open_interest":216529.19417,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"216","slug":"zelenskyy","label":"zelenskyy"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.09,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0049999999999999906,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3616.3257069999995,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:45:56.655299Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027","chart_24h":[568.206517,579.317629,579.317629,578.067629,579.237629,579.237629,579.237629,579.237629,310.759371,310.759371,310.759371,341.870483,341.870483,341.870483,336.870483,636.870483,636.870483,636.870483,636.870483,636.870483,636.870483,665.870483,665.870483,622.392224,678.262224,3154.5422240000003,4434.532224,4434.532224,4434.532224,4434.532224,4184.532224,4184.5322240000005,4184.532224]}],"meta":{"page":1,"page_size":50,"total":573,"total_pages":12},"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?categories=World","as_of":"2026-09-08T20:51:19.423558Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"}}