{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?categories=World","as_of":"2026-10-24T04:13:42.795330Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"},"items":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"48930","ticker":"nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","slug":"nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","title":"NATO x Russia military clash by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nInterception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.\n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.\n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-23T20:22:28.888089Z","end_date":"2027-01-03T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12302964.916051999,"volume_24hr":2039167.527367,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":87.21765899658203,"normalized_volume":60.52894973754883,"liquidity":207813.28264,"open_interest":2114494.4610419995,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"},{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.175,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.16999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":159208.26822700008,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","chart_24h":[492047.840212,492053.84021199995,493177.80138599995,495144.32222500007,497233.039,501405.068358,536464.9584059999,542185.04701,559500.07505,573847.065743,592440.845664,604587.3727610001,599030.1516450001,569334.432189,628980.638466,699141.4938499999,788495.676577,966292.650132,1238863.538622,1366216.074826,1426155.062294,1519597.922827,2012360.729889,2044390.4249619998,2069451.8833520003,2060937.8908719998,2023992.132982,2027391.7146759995,2024513.359972,2027523.0977500002,2035778.6144660003]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"45915","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election","slug":"brazil-presidential-election","title":"Brazil Presidential Election","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T20:07:57.760000Z","end_date":"2026-10-26T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":193826521.745021,"volume_24hr":1559385.792192,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":82.61087036132812,"normalized_volume":82.6932373046875,"liquidity":1279975.62516,"open_interest":11872818.622960998,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101252","slug":"macro-election-2","label":"Macro Election 2"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Flávio Bolsonaro","top_outcome_probability":0.7925,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02100000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":137303.2115910002,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","chart_24h":[1014306.325282,1019248.1101800003,1019687.7297,1019641.3178900001,1027334.702965,1036065.9197140002,1035185.133985,1089433.484801,1089241.601549,1074954.65756,1098904.494041,1093883.776602,993229.063355,966507.075261,984143.9515440001,968611.2830520001,1057864.351399,1017200.044458,1021096.223084,1018577.787456,1004863.473399,1173335.9532099997,1295261.6535919998,1290922.784915,1357598.419241,1302489.249169,1293113.541622,1293775.2100099998,1264186.65911,1231791.637006,1277860.513926]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sf9wxu6w5b","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ww3-happen-before-gta6","title":"Will WW3 happen before GTA6?","description":"Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.\n\nThe prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.\n\nEdit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024\nEdit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025\nEdit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025\n\nEdit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025\nEdit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025\nEdit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025\nEdit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict. In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.\n\nDiplomatic Misunderstandings Leading to Small-Scale Conflicts: A breakdown in diplomacy could spark numerous localized conflicts around the world. If these conflicts become widespread enough, they could collectively be considered a \"world at war,\" even if individually they are short-lived (likely lasting no more than a few weeks).\n\nUpdate 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fully Mechanized Armies Clarification:\n\nThe mere development of fully mechanized military forces (such as AI-driven drones and autonomous weapons systems) is sufficient for this criterion, even if these forces are not actually deployed. \n\n(\n\nOP: This is not the case as specified in another post, the AI wrongly assumed my intentions. Here the relevant comment\n```\n\nHaving the mechanized/autonomous armies clause simply means that armies made of humans and armies made entirely by autonomous/mechanized units are considered alike to the resolution of this question. This avoids the \"no human, no war\" exploit to this question.\n\n```\n\n\nSo the decisive factor remains the use of violence aimed at claiming land, whether by humans or machines. In that sense, it's a functional definition of war that applies equally to both.\n\n)\n\nThis distinguishes the resolution criteria from scenarios (like a cold war) where deployment might be a factor. \n\n\nUpdate 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Leaks or unauthorized copies do not count as a release. GTA VI is considered 'released' only upon its official public launch by Rockstar Games.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/EnricoCaminiti/9099da3ie9.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-07-02T10:02:51.899000Z","end_date":"2026-11-18T23:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1552587.3527425216,"volume_24hr":8335.472937834855,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":77.96670532226562,"normalized_volume":74.75711059570312,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["wars","world-default","geopolitics","gaming","gta"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.045086,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will WW3 happen before GTA6?","top_outcome_probability":0.045086,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.015086000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":8118.034337845536,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EnricoCaminiti/will-ww3-happen-before-gta6","chart_24h":[0.03,0.03,0.03,0.041878,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.043413,0.043413,0.042011,0.042011,0.042011,0.048252,0.048252,0.048252,0.047758,0.047097,0.047097,0.047069,0.045478,0.045478,0.045478,0.045094,0.045094,0.045094,0.045086,0.045086,0.045086,0.045086,0.045086,0.045086]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1138953","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory","title":"Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory","description":"The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T19:31:58Z","end_date":"2026-10-26T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5500123.7236049995,"volume_24hr":673741.686189,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":74.40265655517578,"normalized_volume":54.686920166015625,"liquidity":746161.78039,"open_interest":740611.200341,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:40.106592Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:40.106592Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T19:55:04.592714Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory","chart_24h":[553868.74714,552003.083693,564931.14719,570516.780802,547134.9168369999,562423.086198,559589.252844,559840.020547,561586.118363,559094.725579,556075.268525,550971.097908,553532.140852,533336.387949,532658.2635840001,532152.758551,525634.359693,527273.766839,534909.737159,537119.499729,559872.705441,598284.86765,635754.503866,655792.346067,655757.172726,674992.076702,688393.4852219999,701514.282,708606.613068,603022.7039890001,621189.835354]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"81557","ticker":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","slug":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","title":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","description":"Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-15T00:27:02.243822Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":51920611.097281,"volume_24hr":472379.41316,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":70.63411712646484,"normalized_volume":71.67756652832031,"liquidity":3948533.34248,"open_interest":5442075.304963,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"103026","slug":"trump-netanyahu","label":"Trump-Netanyahu"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Gadi Eizenkot","top_outcome_probability":0.5095,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02100000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":16762.061105999997,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","chart_24h":[1032205.7824840001,1031980.5259650002,1032232.1736450002,1033860.3863130002,1096413.5866070003,1078184.4047710001,1079670.292323,1080262.567263,1071731.2384920001,1024580.3570150002,609127.854467,609775.919703,636013.54135,637118.813489,552153.828559,540876.0173589999,522229.632044,488857.82537400007,489788.96416699997,486007.7228270001,493522.47520200006,499585.53384600015,453209.935111,476314.28599100007,479151.199458,529603.039812,528689.642718,454516.162409,448305.46183000004,445258.71248,470377.098515]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6PuZLQhqn5","ticker":null,"slug":"hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar","title":"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nFollows the identical Polymarket resolution (https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a \"pandemic.\" A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nBackground\n\nHantaviruses are a family of viruses spread mainly by rodents. In humans, they can cause Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). While Hantaviruses can cause severe, life-threatening disease, transmission is typically through contact with infected rodent excreta, not via human-to-human transmission. Historically, human-to-human transmission of Hantavirus is extremely rare, making the potential for a global pandemic fundamentally different from respiratory viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T18:43:37.193000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":725217.5283294341,"volume_24hr":5076.388087122066,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.63794708251953,"normalized_volume":66.98656463623047,"liquidity":11500.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.016827,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]","top_outcome_probability":0.016827,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0031729999999999987,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4293.487990448878,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-05-07T04:48:30.772706Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/bagofsprite/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02,0.017471,0.017471,0.01747,0.01747,0.01747,0.01747,0.01747,0.01747,0.01747,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.017045,0.016847,0.016847,0.016827,0.016827,0.016827,0.016827,0.016827]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1211791","ticker":"france-declares-state-of-emergency-byptptpt","slug":"france-declares-state-of-emergency-byptptpt","title":"France declares state of emergency by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTo count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a \"state of emergency\" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).\n\nOnly declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.\n\nA declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.\n\nA declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the \"Urgence attentat\" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-18T13:59:10Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":661271.071127,"volume_24hr":385980.852915,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.38938903808594,"normalized_volume":40.78300476074219,"liquidity":120568.1779,"open_interest":204476.642243,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100349","slug":"protests","label":"Protests"},{"id":"106387","slug":"france-riots","label":"France Riots"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.145,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":276223.387059,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:11:46.507125Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:11:46.507125Z","added_at":"2026-10-18T14:06:56.776115Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-emergency-byptptpt","chart_24h":[41740.192627,23481.613599999997,23930.24743,17445.015805,15568.660021,15561.342948,12860.675227,12504.673173,11798.763173,10798.811289,11106.145119,164277.565654,204290.315638,259686.01326500002,263561.792771,293675.96896200004,299255.033163,304523.26552899997,305282.978651,308135.70865100005,349644.458651,355931.298651,356795.507182,377035.993156,377814.526463,379321.476463,379530.52408199996,379455.88122700003,379659.177927,385342.407203,385186.847203]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79987","ticker":"next-french-presidential-election","slug":"next-french-presidential-election","title":"Next French Presidential Election","description":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:09:35.811900Z","end_date":"2027-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":155797757.859391,"volume_24hr":224766.766614,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":62.76109313964844,"normalized_volume":80.8191146850586,"liquidity":19643083.52316,"open_interest":3514392.8378849993,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100282","slug":"french-election","label":"French Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"104091","slug":"french-elections","label":"French Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Marine Le Pen","top_outcome_probability":0.4625,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-77519.12314600003,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","chart_24h":[800633.1510290001,800368.808271,798594.817334,784186.005304,781269.044012,777066.317924,793859.2551760001,802995.968809,799635.593769,763956.440304,754817.2966540001,637180.635535,638665.97269,642750.079516,644719.583941,627395.600931,580824.97014,198480.08257099998,192984.16133,176701.908722,170409.17006,151987.054654,162010.107938,163347.463876,168828.708515,159848.762322,200905.187813,212229.795241,215561.02983800002,224843.753937,224799.293274]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31195","ticker":"putin-out-before-2027","slug":"putin-out-before-2027","title":"Putin out as President of Russia by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-06T22:30:10.584000Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30364973.970732998,"volume_24hr":203438.17572499998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.57956314086914,"normalized_volume":67.41364288330078,"liquidity":813461.28011,"open_interest":7274571.71301,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 3.25%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.105,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20278.452353999997,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[121486.69217300002,121486.692173,121486.692173,187924.20343700002,207675.45343700002,207695.453437,209682.963437,155873.73646099996,178025.156211,169732.638417,169649.041164,169649.04116399997,184255.131164,199652.751164,201798.76380800002,223841.341765,225351.311765,235464.59451199998,235572.284512,228062.460007,229074.940007,216058.86000699998,214802.31000700002,212432.810007,212516.90091700005,212522.52641700002,207924.060226,199177.40022600003,199257.209317,199398.272647,200863.092647]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CnlI5u5pRQ","ticker":"CnlI5u5pRQ","slug":"2026-brazil-presidential-election-w","title":"2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nIf date changes, resolves based on next presidential election.\n\n\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-23T02:52:49.733000Z","end_date":"2026-10-25T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":84373.18806165711,"volume_24hr":2972.8885779133625,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.18009948730469,"normalized_volume":47.331336975097656,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Elections","Politics"],"tags":["latin-america","elections-world","elections","lula","politics-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Flavio Bolsonaro","top_outcome_probability":0.799888,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.016379000000000032,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":49.70102866357047,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:03:37.396291Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:03:37.396291Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T08:00:18.712640Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/2026-brazil-presidential-election-w","chart_24h":[2762.720316081953,633.0113124275474,623.0113124275474,804.0573894718358,854.0573894718358,474.938793976658,419.5661869753735,1604.6846687454906,2200.177532593279,2940.161232292584,2863.7496752712236,2798.456819587068,2794.826819587068,2681.4410514242427,2950.052623573165,2950.052623573165,2972.8885779133625]},{"source":"manifold","id":"s5PACNtgqp","ticker":"s5PACNtgqp","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-winner","title":"Brazil Presidential Election Winner","description":"From Polymarket:\n\nA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T13:55:57.272000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41388.48555414157,"volume_24hr":2945.4079917321374,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.03814697265625,"normalized_volume":41.57402420043945,"liquidity":1010.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Elections"],"tags":["elections-world","latin-america","latam-caribbean","brazil-3292d24d179f","elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Flávio Bolsonaro","top_outcome_probability":0.799765,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.012558999999999987,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":183.9393263139209,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:52.540612Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:05:52.540612Z","added_at":"2026-10-04T21:12:40.384780Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/brazil-presidential-election-winner","chart_24h":[318.97667558897615,349.92413819147504,299.92413819147504,713.7502679105079,702.1300730383753,1343.3387652884653,1932.71685079187,2528.506746404996,3124.274678198991,3124.0885542731326,2933.353368854291,2923.353368854291,2677.883559257206,2920.480635035633,2920.480635035633,2945.4079917321374]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"72347","ticker":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-03T23:52:00.295000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":27920707.676329,"volume_24hr":146400.385635,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.469581604003906,"normalized_volume":66.75936126708984,"liquidity":504359.9314,"open_interest":4697116.931899,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.055,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":117428.73281700001,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:03.387489Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:03.387489Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[28452.180186,28452.180186,28452.180186000005,28452.180186,18915.432817,18860.295974,51931.36334199999,51985.215973,56985.215973,56985.21597300001,56987.295973,85304.06597300002,89870.75334,115893.64965600001,115421.18228699999,116005.05877900001,116110.95877900002,116102.76930500002,121843.062304,142699.97125,137693.97125,137754.97125,137670.97125000003,140818.27125000002,147305.024583,148220.291251,146607.87510900002,146757.87510900002,146004.37510900002,145400.385635,145900.38563499998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1071009","ticker":"bulgaria-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory","slug":"bulgaria-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory","title":"Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory","description":"The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.\n\nThe \"margin of victory\" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nThe candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bulgaria-election-scheduled-by-december-31-sj1lowFVfVXg.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bulgaria-election-scheduled-by-december-31-sj1lowFVfVXg.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-23T20:14:36Z","end_date":"2026-10-25T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1076065.969137,"volume_24hr":143909.150372,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.30070495605469,"normalized_volume":43.8100700378418,"liquidity":781058.72964,"open_interest":442803.625087,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102953","slug":"bulgaria","label":"Bulgaria"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"100686","slug":"margin-of-victory","label":"Margin of Victory"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Iotova 10-20%","top_outcome_probability":0.625,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.025000000000000022,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-9430.800153,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:59.785719Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:59.785719Z","added_at":"2026-09-23T20:19:16.553131Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory","chart_24h":[215717.973353,215812.973353,215986.330018,217888.666341,167331.59137900002,165642.248793,195236.328779,183574.027391,167982.423954,167054.911976,165402.846642,164270.883069,160939.360692,161411.661453,147035.990762,145855.919119,149575.918795,150857.74054,155004.355717,183877.142269,175125.422226,172918.006185,175998.19535800003,172555.25687700004,160874.988306,160617.17923100002,158551.77211800002,151644.328118,147551.777038,148153.171217,148155.80906600002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"634802","ticker":"iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","slug":"iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","title":"Iran full airspace closure by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028-7rbGPCHobYvq.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028-7rbGPCHobYvq.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:23:30.308911Z","end_date":"2027-01-26T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10524606.65839701,"volume_24hr":109764.141273,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.986724853515625,"normalized_volume":59.37748718261719,"liquidity":83888.9789,"open_interest":259985.30256099996,"categories":["World"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104129","slug":"close","label":"close"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.375,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":87754.94310499998,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:37.268148Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:37.268148Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:39:37.141257Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028","chart_24h":[59845.64657499999,59945.636575,59995.636575,60108.942775999996,71532.622248,76175.481534,135528.481534,135294.488991,133880.508791,133866.397679,134733.08434600002,134721.76434599998,131273.142884,130928.300302,131032.981169,130963.741169,131070.380512,133828.46829699998,133845.468297,136381.11349299998,138571.479889,136571.479889,131754.661819,137736.414033,136510.20741899998,135493.884957,134059.404957,133931.759185,141883.33337799998,141744.113378,141789.461273]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"166780","ticker":"bulgaria-presidential-election","slug":"bulgaria-presidential-election","title":"Bulgaria Presidential Election","description":"Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bulgaria-election-scheduled-by-december-31-sj1lowFVfVXg.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bulgaria-election-scheduled-by-december-31-sj1lowFVfVXg.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T20:20:24.477487Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1508701.8036180004,"volume_24hr":110662.61260400001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.750484466552734,"normalized_volume":45.96797561645508,"liquidity":1750814.36121,"open_interest":315817.828261,"categories":["Elections","Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102953","slug":"bulgaria","label":"Bulgaria"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Iliana Iotova","top_outcome_probability":0.875,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2551.8798370000004,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:11.988355Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:11.988355Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election","chart_24h":[90249.646139,90400.646139,90362.902406,101740.53817,101987.754983,101833.99883,115540.66883,116444.777577,116444.777577,116471.139886,114991.79290100001,115096.79290099998,117913.114867,109524.682723,110634.306484,110636.686484,110436.686484,108331.14984100002,122127.87316500001,126573.54455100001,80783.24317200002,88276.519432,88558.419908,86748.73945299999,87452.9252,92362.697392,94758.45176099999,110890.106009,111290.547119,111290.54711899998,112591.685294]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73130","ticker":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:52:17.414000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75138128.432562,"volume_24hr":89679.413211,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.75029373168945,"normalized_volume":74.69142150878906,"liquidity":285766.6011,"open_interest":7083523.726371,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.175,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999981,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-50243.51971799997,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:03.387489Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:03.387489Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","chart_24h":[137871.807175,137658.277763,138096.571881,135582.133307,93457.17463000001,93344.89521900001,93294.89521900001,83838.923895,83821.953895,81386.893895,83203.493895,63063.133895,62653.84036499998,62419.281541,62750.6786,62630.951010000004,62778.918884,52632.080819,54997.322725000005,85672.89802899999,77508.21567599999,87701.04012199999,87734.693139,66712.638629,68354.415132,87099.442538,87918.705696,88276.550154,85787.435919,86602.11411,89623.469287]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"30828","ticker":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","title":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/xi-jinping-out-in-2025-EjF4SM20eaa3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/xi-jinping-out-in-2025-EjF4SM20eaa3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-03T20:37:00.228000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15294858.223921,"volume_24hr":68220.939167,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.203224182128906,"normalized_volume":62.154605865478516,"liquidity":482796.30137,"open_interest":4307953.396203,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"103715","slug":"hfc","label":"HFC"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"366","slug":"world-affairs","label":"world affairs"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 3.25%"},{"id":"101253","slug":"macro-geopolitics","label":"Macro Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0265,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":33330.44982999999,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[34900.489337,34900.489337,34900.489337,34898.439337,34863.479337,35196.262642,35196.262642,41530.362642,41921.542129,41870.260076,39737.794176999996,39737.794176999996,35849.824177,33359.824177,33059.824176999995,31489.124177,31481.267766,30831.267766,40020.767026,37958.767026,27810.243718,29640.325756,28598.105755999997,31379.834293,34243.811523,33630.621523,53325.265014,54951.24916699999,68192.109167,68192.109167,68192.07916699999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34044","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:37:56.300000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":44724736.41779,"volume_24hr":55519.83915500001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.32505416870117,"normalized_volume":70.47882080078125,"liquidity":411570.76602,"open_interest":5988751.446928,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 3.25%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0235,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-52589.298138999984,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","chart_24h":[107303.61511199997,107299.54529899998,113235.719594,114147.86840099999,70537.898349,70718.768349,69818.195333,69860.99257099998,67690.743408,68039.509429,65457.80781300001,65447.593308,65504.06990099999,64360.80990099999,77430.320565,75272.787868,68303.64160999999,65592.493298,75870.72335599999,83711.074397,74560.24832799999,69968.561529,69968.561529,71491.18007399999,72898.28962400001,72807.380533,59257.26417000001,54864.04777999999,54959.04777999999,54610.955052000005,54567.476791]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73185","ticker":"kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-before-2027","slug":"kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-before-2027","title":"Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025-gbIdeLT4emYq.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025-gbIdeLT4emYq.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T18:39:18.223000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":593467.0659909999,"volume_24hr":52446.581689,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.780738830566406,"normalized_volume":40.13349914550781,"liquidity":155563.89256,"open_interest":142759.903359,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"351","slug":"north-korea","label":"North Korea"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.052,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.006499999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":33196.912408000004,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:03.387489Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:03.387489Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-before-2027","chart_24h":[18545.969096,18205.917473999998,19664.459982,17862.781776,14848.161775999997,15788.811776,15788.811776,15788.811775999999,15767.535179999997,27641.989056,27623.169056,27606.169056000002,29501.964517,26960.157994999998,29593.037995,29894.079662999997,27072.187112,27157.839285,27157.839285,27157.839285,30796.011920999998,35099.220549,39761.360549,39968.886865,37912.515348999994,39908.216119,40222.146119,41053.749895,45125.88394599999,44941.84080499999,50281.188353]},{"source":"manifold","id":"h0QQ6AlzZ5","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-serious-attempt-by","title":"Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?","description":"This market is to determine if the GOP will make a serious effort to overturn the results of the 2026 elections which are scheduled for Nov 3.\n\nExamples of a serious attempt would be to send ICE or other federal troops to the polls, an effort to cancel or reschedule the elections, a refusal by the Speaker of The House to seat one more elected officials, a mob attack on The Capital or other significant government building or similar events. The \"Brooks Brother's riot\" in 2000 would be an example of a serious attempt but nuisance lawsuits that did not impact the makeup of the 120th Congress which is scheduled to be seated on Jan 3, 2027 would not.\n\nThis will not resolve until after Congress has been sworn in and at least one session of Congress has been held. This is entirely subjective so I will not bet and do not bet on this market if you don't trust me to resolve this fairly. Please ask questions before betting if you wish. This market might close early if it is clear on Jan 3 that there is no interference.\n\nEdit: I will use the WSJ as my primary source but will use additional reporting from The NYT, Bloomberg News, and BBC if needed.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For sending ICE to the polls to count as a serious attempt, it requires a deployment of hundreds of agents at hundreds of polling stations; a few sightings will not be enough.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-17T01:16:28.294000Z","end_date":"2027-01-10T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21270.697305678277,"volume_24hr":1256.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.71430587768555,"normalized_volume":36.53068161010742,"liquidity":20000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","us-politics","politics-default","culture-default","news"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.369941,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?","top_outcome_probability":0.369941,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.032021999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1201.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-10-17T17:09:04.855958Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/JimAusman/will-there-be-a-serious-attempt-by","chart_24h":[0.337919,0.336343,0.336343,0.336343,0.336343,0.336343,0.336343,0.336343,0.336327,0.336327,0.336327,0.336327,0.336327,0.336327,0.337877,0.337877,0.366995,0.366995,0.366995,0.366907,0.366907,0.366907,0.366907,0.366907,0.366907,0.366907,0.366907,0.366907,0.366907,0.369941,0.369941]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1220826","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election-second-round-specific-margin-of-victory","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-second-round-specific-margin-of-victory","title":"Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory","description":"The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-20T00:35:52Z","end_date":"2026-10-26T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60864.7454,"volume_24hr":41705.643951,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.190826416015625,"normalized_volume":27.37119483947754,"liquidity":286145.12782,"open_interest":20070.712521999998,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:12:38.651040Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:12:38.651040Z","added_at":"2026-10-20T00:47:27.635984Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-specific-margin-of-victory","chart_24h":[11794.704248,11794.704248,11794.704248,11916.074248,11916.074248,11924.144248,11924.144248,11924.144248,18692.471595000003,15705.021643,15682.541401,15706.541401,17446.351401,23066.208472000002,23013.395892,23996.209612,23960.482986,27120.872357,29550.873848,27008.921348,27121.575195,28845.125504,29497.0451,29939.556849,30388.224139,30991.190336,31156.986652,34722.624418,34258.557266,33675.478766,34521.347334]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"147609","ticker":"iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30","slug":"iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30","title":"Iran coup attempt by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a \"Yes\" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30-8SI-ZxJABza-.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30-8SI-ZxJABza-.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T19:39:41.690000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2327768.781342993,"volume_24hr":678.173709,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.53746032714844,"normalized_volume":48.813079833984375,"liquidity":47885.6405,"open_interest":47553.148239,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.29,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.05499999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-27855.033771,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:11.988355Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:11.988355Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30","chart_24h":[99026.11000000002,99026.11,99171.11,99171.11,63698.11000000001,54091.36000000001,54091.36,54091.36000000001,53991.36000000001,54030.974616,54043.474616,54062.22461599999,54093.876229,54079.996229,54074.006229,54075.081486,54075.081486,54075.08148600001,54061.081486,54036.081486,54012.201486000005,54002.201486,53982.201486,53988.651486,53988.651486,54218.53370900001,54218.533709,54218.533709,54213.533709,36193.53370900001,36193.533709]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1138701","ticker":"spain-general-election-winner","slug":"spain-general-election-winner","title":"Spain General Election Winner","description":"Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nParties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) nationwide in this election, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists nationwide, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nSeats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows:\n\nPSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia.\n\nPP: lists of the People’s Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre.\n\nBroad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands.\n\nERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia.\n\nPodemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own.\n\nCCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands.\n\nAny other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies.\n\nElectoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spainflagcrestcentre-241f86d478.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spainflagcrestcentre-241f86d478.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T18:58:24Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":164498.66842299997,"volume_24hr":33419.86408,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.84832763671875,"normalized_volume":32.76252365112305,"liquidity":282958.29438,"open_interest":43655.582027,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"1382","slug":"spain","label":"Spain"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"106304","slug":"spain-elections","label":"Spain Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"PP","top_outcome_probability":0.755,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.07499999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5625.201843999998,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:40.106592Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:40.106592Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T19:01:16.238438Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-winner","chart_24h":[9625.582251,9625.582251,10046.582251,10046.582251000002,11689.794016000002,34018.947386,34253.947386,35283.457386,30641.407871,31241.247871,31240.107870999997,31819.027870999995,32448.297870999995,32937.687871,33635.097871,35843.327871,35849.327871,35849.327871,35805.647870999994,36596.787871,36688.707871,36703.707871,32100.165135,31985.325135,31985.325135,32236.965135,33105.855135,33288.285135,33419.86408,33419.86408,33419.86408]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73223","ticker":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","slug":"friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","title":"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025-uyYzbnJj0tjS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025-uyYzbnJj0tjS.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T19:35:55.838000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2982837.183791,"volume_24hr":23646.252365999997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.86345672607422,"normalized_volume":50.4782829284668,"liquidity":302382.94616,"open_interest":891211.406179,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.395,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5.98,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027","chart_24h":[9398.184768,9398.184768,10475.622063,10568.832588,10563.832588,10563.832588,14112.292588,14117.292588,13560.714928,13874.412177999999,13931.068494,22016.875993999998,22723.515993999998,23459.225993999997,23459.225993999997,23459.225993999997,23642.059678,21854.279678000003,27137.070407999996,27137.070407999996,27137.070407999996,27137.070407999996,29104.070407999996,29852.060407999998,29852.060407999998,29780.280408,29788.840407999996,29788.840408,29788.840407999996,29788.840407999996,29788.840407999996]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"74056","ticker":"where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next","slug":"where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next","title":"Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to \"No meeting before 2027\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-in-another-country-754-536-882-631-152-Sivx1Fw9C2UJ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-in-another-country-754-536-882-631-152-Sivx1Fw9C2UJ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-06T15:54:52.539904Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3965581.156443,"volume_24hr":23597.895887,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.90335464477539,"normalized_volume":52.42515563964844,"liquidity":909595.23305,"open_interest":135861.54053999996,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No meeting before 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.9315,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.014499999999999957,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1162.1906940000001,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next","chart_24h":[32474.220596,31381.202980000002,31347.93848,33139.37848,30317.60248,30319.90348,29848.11048,27950.800498999997,28043.108499,27950.131314,22623.093814,22553.001859,19368.909358999997,21315.542359,21336.398359,24283.697359,35770.921059,35902.184559,35832.450559,35779.600559,30672.528559,33161.350772,32128.550491,32748.429491,31451.970907,30210.460651,30126.783886999998,24423.388387,24921.138387,23479.915387,23610.796387]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73871","ticker":"who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026","slug":"who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026","title":"Who will Trump meet with in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026-pHPADBU-bo1O.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026-pHPADBU-bo1O.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T21:53:59.226258Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1379530.5283119997,"volume_24hr":20574.288998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.76864242553711,"normalized_volume":45.39139175415039,"liquidity":324872.75394,"open_interest":140032.67760999998,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Vladimir Putin","top_outcome_probability":0.825,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":883.3708110000001,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026","chart_24h":[16249.241405,16249.241405,16246.860452,16263.170452,16179.660452,17107.116579,17386.116579,17578.744633,17418.944633,17639.057653,17549.215888,19535.788874,22395.478874,22434.670448,28077.860448,30512.93026,30605.77026,17191.54026,17087.540259999998,17100.04026,20179.322052,20358.588711,20455.525468,20472.435468,20430.695468,21255.031475,21204.031475,21086.891939999998,20586.891939999998,20584.538998,20574.288998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"48978","ticker":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","slug":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","title":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-23T23:15:08.640000Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4414990.443612999,"volume_24hr":19260.9013,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.22891616821289,"normalized_volume":53.168636322021484,"liquidity":136569.38955,"open_interest":920957.787983,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-118.72000000000003,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","chart_24h":[12677.465457999999,12677.465457999999,12677.465458,12677.465458,12677.465458,12677.465458,17511.676757999998,19534.186758,21556.716758,21505.487258,21505.487258,21355.487257999997,21352.3213,31514.4613,31514.4613,31564.4613,31564.4613,19240.4613,19377.8513,19377.8513,19372.0113,19372.0113,19372.011300000002,19372.0113,19372.0113,19260.9013,19260.9013,19260.9013,19260.9013,19260.9013,19260.9013]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1178376","ticker":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2027","slug":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2027","title":"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to \"Yes\". This market is not limited to a single winner.\n\nIf no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-12T18:19:08Z","end_date":"2028-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":140808.310087,"volume_24hr":18409.444902,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.02014923095703,"normalized_volume":31.918415069580078,"liquidity":359644.83299,"open_interest":61065.918101999996,"categories":["World","Culture","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100771","slug":"nobel","label":"nobel"},{"id":"18","slug":"awards","label":"Awards"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"106306","slug":"nobel-prize","label":"Nobel Prize"},{"id":"103070","slug":"nobel-peace-prize","label":"Nobel Peace Prize"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Committee to Protect Journalists","top_outcome_probability":0.11,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.05500000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-136.6319220000005,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:31.761791Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:31.761791Z","added_at":"2026-10-12T18:42:52.332658Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2027","chart_24h":[92601.60739800001,92958.296531,93340.796531,93500.796531,95052.693197,95272.473197,89970.673197,89904.223197,94158.481332,94107.481332,93977.151332,93984.461332,93987.811332,93982.411332,94050.241332,21684.6844,19409.52487,19819.62487,19815.62487,19815.62487,19771.059645,22847.702503,23810.836528,22995.946528,23065.946528,23086.946528,23086.546528,23086.546528,23036.536528,23036.536528,19514.614899]},{"source":"manifold","id":"x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO","ticker":null,"slug":"will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan","title":"Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?","description":"This market will resolve \"yes\" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.\n\nThis question is answered \"No\" if there is:\n\nno military conflict between the two parties\n\na limited military conflict without triggering a major war\n\nOn the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction. Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.\n\n\"[...] Admiral John Aquilino, says China wants to finish modernising its armed forces by 2027. The timeline is shrinking, he told the Senate in March.\n\nhttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/01/a-weak-china-may-be-more-warlike-than-a-strong-one\n\nThe year Davidson sees as the potential time horizon for a Chinese attack, 2027, is the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army. In November 2020, the Chinese Communist party said it wanted to “ensure that the 100-year military building goal is achieved by 2027”, called for faster military modernisation and reiterated the goal of making the Chinese military fit for networked, “intelligentised” warfare. Although those are stock phrases China has used before, the Pentagon calls 2027 a “new milestone”. “If realised, the PLA’s 2027 modernisation goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency,” it said in its annual report on the Chinese military last year. Some analysts doubt Davidson’s date. But one year on from his testimony, government and military officials in both Taipei and Washington say the window from now to 2027 is a genuine threat.\n\n[...]\nOne person familiar with the administration’s assessment of the threat to Taiwan says there is general agreement that China is aiming to have developed the necessary capabilities to attack by 2027, but argues that is very distinct from the question of intent or action.\n\nhttps://www.ft.com/content/0850eb67-1700-47c0-9dbf-3395b4e905fd","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-05T13:22:49.913000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":188006.63687572794,"volume_24hr":549.0635433345662,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.084774017333984,"normalized_volume":54.25404739379883,"liquidity":5400.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["china","taiwan","geopolitics","wars","chinese-politics","world-default","global-macro","asia","china-taiwan-potential-conflict"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.087216,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.087216,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.004574999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":499.06354333456625,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan","chart_24h":[0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.082641,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216,0.087216]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1100744","ticker":"where-will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place","slug":"where-will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place","title":"Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?","description":"This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.\n\nMeetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.\n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nIf the next qualifying diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first diplomatic session begins.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to \"Vatican City,\" not \"Italy.\"\n\nIf the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to \"Other - Europe.\" If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to \"Other - Middle East/North Africa.\" If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nFor purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the \"Countries and Areas List\" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of \"Europe and Eurasia\" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of \"Near East (Middle East and North Africa)\" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.\n\nIf no qualifying senior-level peace talks begin by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Talks by December 31, 2027.”\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-diplomatic-meeting-by-2anNp08yc15i.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-diplomatic-meeting-by-2anNp08yc15i.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-29T00:13:08Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":69656.59093399999,"volume_24hr":14044.537038999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.694541931152344,"normalized_volume":28.242164611816406,"liquidity":367545.84693,"open_interest":13445.048427000003,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"216","slug":"zelenskyy","label":"zelenskyy"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"UAE","top_outcome_probability":0.65,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03500000000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1951.3813800000007,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:14.724374Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:14.724374Z","added_at":"2026-09-29T01:13:02.379572Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place","chart_24h":[4124.569305999999,4124.569306,4124.569306,4338.142163,4338.1421629999995,4818.502163,4669.8288729999995,4669.828873,4669.8288729999995,4560.704546,4565.704546,4158.447646,4035.5019649999995,3617.5019649999995,3875.520925,3890.270925,3890.270925,3862.2137819999994,3852.1537819999994,4652.852993,4652.8529929999995,4999.932993,4743.752993,11322.885589,12310.575589,12611.555589,12790.626024,12801.449754,12801.449754,13131.449754,13969.537038999999]},{"source":"opinion","id":"8453","ticker":null,"slug":"will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0x0a419b69ac11603d9239f6d10ca9edb6ea868b38ab0eb5808b1664632e71f9e8","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-02T08:12:10Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11462989.017,"volume_24hr":8686.887999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.9759635925293,"normalized_volume":62.7082405090332,"liquidity":0.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.054,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.054,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-17T16:21:48.913689Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T16:21:48.913689Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"166435","ticker":"next-prime-minister-of-sweden","slug":"next-prime-minister-of-sweden","title":"Next Prime Minister of Sweden","description":"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner-IocfiwWAt86R.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner-IocfiwWAt86R.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T20:34:34.381805Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10394524.876344,"volume_24hr":12468.074914,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.760459899902344,"normalized_volume":59.28617858886719,"liquidity":1024886.33256,"open_interest":902198.8071590001,"categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"191","slug":"sweden","label":"Sweden"},{"id":"103150","slug":"swedish","label":"Swedish"},{"id":"103149","slug":"rewards-20-4pt5-50","label":"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"106088","slug":"sweden-elections","label":"Sweden Elections"},{"id":"106091","slug":"sweden-parliamentary-elections","label":"Sweden Parliamentary Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Magdalena Andersson","top_outcome_probability":0.765,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1136.0283110000014,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:11.988355Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:11.988355Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden","chart_24h":[17287.456593000003,17287.606593,11650.635593,11650.635593,11647.282487999999,12504.373764,13362.426859,13310.628899,12948.906029999998,10308.675298,9281.475298,9279.583520999999,8847.978464,8770.039042,8012.960174,7844.121152999999,7832.534765,7402.934764999999,6771.464765,6302.505806,7385.955447,7002.528002999999,12000.878003,12618.218003,12683.346055,12686.314495,12682.371235999999,12682.371236,12682.371235999999,12469.481236,12465.341058]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"25413","ticker":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","slug":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","title":"Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.\n\nHybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-28T22:16:59.523581Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5534080.934889989,"volume_24hr":12016.726666999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.47372817993164,"normalized_volume":54.75035095214844,"liquidity":75240.0895,"open_interest":271034.765551,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"1383","slug":"poland","label":"Poland"},{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.045,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":12006.31,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","chart_24h":[10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12006.31,12006.31,12006.31,12006.31,12006.31,12006.31,12006.31,12016.726666999999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34052","ticker":"zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","slug":"zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","title":"Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-october-31-vvfzvJSdhPij.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-october-31-vvfzvJSdhPij.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:37:37.149000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3652340.643932,"volume_24hr":9729.090471000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.42599105834961,"normalized_volume":51.85884094238281,"liquidity":111784.9409,"open_interest":808154.163793,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 3.25%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.065,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-7153.258396999998,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:01.088937Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","chart_24h":[21310.266268,15478.979033999998,15463.289069,12020.528398,12083.709669999998,12083.709669999998,11086.389669999999,13872.529669999998,13872.529669999998,13904.019669999998,13904.019669999998,13851.030307999998,13856.349440999997,13856.349440999998,13817.738163999999,13826.039014999998,16263.928376,16263.928376,16202.508376,17335.470441999998,12315.650654,12147.410653999998,13915.280653999998,13915.880653999999,13937.060653999997,12331.060653999997,12331.060653999999,12326.060654,12326.060654,12326.060653999999,11943.049170999999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1107820","ticker":"next-israeli-minister-of-foreign-affairs","slug":"next-israeli-minister-of-foreign-affairs","title":"Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:18:41Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":136376.536781,"volume_24hr":11623.057464,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.21555709838867,"normalized_volume":31.74768829345703,"liquidity":370798.03127,"open_interest":6857.102382,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global 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referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2025-bKiHI7Wj8xyo.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2025-bKiHI7Wj8xyo.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-30T23:31:49.700698Z","end_date":"2026-10-20T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":473858.217231,"volume_24hr":11497.023334000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.13125228881836,"normalized_volume":38.788753509521484,"liquidity":31201.43173,"open_interest":102030.522986,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"245","slug":"canada","label":"Canada"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"106389","slug":"alberta-referendum","label":"Alberta Referendum"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0145,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.003000000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3681.013334,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:22.848841Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:22.848841Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026","chart_24h":[7816.01,7816.01,7816.01,7816.01,2552.6299999999997,2552.6299999999997,2552.6299999999997,2552.6299999999997,2552.6299999999997,2552.6299999999997,2552.6299999999997,2552.6299999999997,2552.6299999999997,2502.28,2512.91,2512.91,2292.85,4673.813334,4673.813334,4674.833334,4674.833334,4681.273334,4681.273334,4666.273334,4666.2733339999995,4666.2733339999995,4666.2733339999995,2434.443334,2424.283334,2424.283334,11477.053334000002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1211834","ticker":"france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt","slug":"france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt","title":"France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTo count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a \"state of siege\" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).\n\nOnly declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.\n\nA declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.\n\nA declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to \"martial law\", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-18T14:00:21Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":229829.732255,"volume_24hr":11415.345905,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.076175689697266,"normalized_volume":34.612457275390625,"liquidity":126489.61441,"open_interest":61674.420378999996,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100349","slug":"protests","label":"Protests"},{"id":"106387","slug":"france-riots","label":"France Riots"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.035,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.006500000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":43.5,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:11:46.507125Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:11:46.507125Z","added_at":"2026-10-18T14:06:56.776115Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt","chart_24h":[5986.156429,5986.156429,4511.386429,3615.846429,6150.961044999999,6150.961044999999,6150.961044999999,6150.961044999999,6150.961044999999,6150.961044999999,6100.961044999999,6100.961044999999,6100.961044999999,4968.341044999999,4488.366282999999,4688.366282999999,11194.222117,9398.97045,9418.97045,10471.425905000002,10463.425905000002,11013.905905000001,11098.905905000001,11565.345905,11565.345905,11565.345905,11565.345905,11565.345905,11415.345905,11415.345905,11415.345905]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73339","ticker":"foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by","slug":"foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by","title":"Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-in-2025-Mtk1b8zv4PJw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-in-2025-Mtk1b8zv4PJw.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T20:00:51.121291Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1132939.110858,"volume_24hr":11250.800163,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.945621490478516,"normalized_volume":44.135467529296875,"liquidity":20134.9121,"open_interest":63023.903732,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"61","slug":"gaza","label":"Gaza"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.055,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.095,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":10982.050163,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by","chart_24h":[241.75,241.75,241.75,241.75,241.75,241.75,241.75,241.75,241.75,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,46.29,46.29,125.35249999999999,204.4125,204.4125,204.4125,204.4125,7808.591591,10801.201591,11223.800163,11223.800163]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1107821","ticker":"next-israeli-minister-of-justice","slug":"next-israeli-minister-of-justice","title":"Next Israeli Minister of Justice?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:19:08Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":85969.02332600001,"volume_24hr":9996.43,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.05850601196289,"normalized_volume":29.317983627319336,"liquidity":218370.68981,"open_interest":5859.219161,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Person H","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:21.299966Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:21.299966Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.107430Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-justice","chart_24h":[5837.162663,5637.162663,5637.162663,5637.162663,5637.162663,5688.162663,5577.162663,5627.162663,12779.682663,13105.352663,13292.352662999998,14231.710098,14586.710098,11302.482259,11072.482259,10771.872259000002,10771.872259000002,10610.872259000002,9970.85,9970.85,9957.43,9957.43,9957.43,9957.43,9957.43,10157.43,10157.43,9996.43,9996.43,9996.43,9996.43]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"80824","ticker":"will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027","slug":"will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027","title":"Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. \n\nIf a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nAny agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-Cu1RIKFPKl3v.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-Cu1RIKFPKl3v.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T21:39:03.996000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":888267.0503710001,"volume_24hr":9619.292409,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.7663688659668,"normalized_volume":42.608482360839844,"liquidity":99797.7612,"open_interest":227246.63453900002,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"216","slug":"zelenskyy","label":"zelenskyy"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.33,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1.8689230000000006,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027","chart_24h":[865.395486,865.395486,855.395486,845.172081,845.172081,845.172081,774.029223,774.029223,774.029223,245.029223,245.029223,245.029223,8711.708298,9206.708298,9206.708298,9206.708298,9206.708298,9119.12544,9244.276046,9244.276046,9324.276046,9430.656046,9430.656046,9330.656046,9330.656046,9330.656046,9330.656046,9630.656046,9630.656046,9630.656046,9619.292409]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73056","ticker":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","slug":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","title":"Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:57:39.192000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2878899.529019999,"volume_24hr":9365.659344999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.56410598754883,"normalized_volume":50.23839569091797,"liquidity":53735.8351,"open_interest":282289.958616,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.11,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":8782.979345,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:03.387489Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:03.387489Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","chart_24h":[733.61,874.45,800.832633,800.832633,800.832633,862.2726329999999,863.6026329999999,1123.232633,1023.232633,1071.242633,1071.242633,1071.242633,1071.242633,2262.942633,4993.267806,4993.267806,4993.267806,4993.267806,8850.309345,9207.659345,9335.659345,9335.659345,9335.659345,9365.659345,9365.659344999998,9365.659345,9365.659345,9365.659345000002,9365.659345,9365.659345,9365.659345]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1230492","ticker":"france-accuses-foreign-country-of-provoking-unrest-by-november-30-20261021154154939","slug":"france-accuses-foreign-country-of-provoking-unrest-by-november-30-20261021154154939","title":"France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSuch a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. \n\nAmbiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., \"foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation\") will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-21T16:55:54Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24000.799996,"volume_24hr":7506.391804000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.91172790527344,"normalized_volume":23.1031551361084,"liquidity":30166.3464,"open_interest":7716.089527,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"103119","slug":"protest","label":"protest"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100349","slug":"protests","label":"Protests"},{"id":"106387","slug":"france-riots","label":"France Riots"},{"id":"1396","slug":"international-affairs","label":"international affairs"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.145,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.04999999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3626.8406470000004,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:13:26.153976Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:13:26.153976Z","added_at":"2026-10-21T17:02:22.035478Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-accuses-foreign-country-of-provoking-unrest-by-november-30-20261021154154939","chart_24h":[3879.5511570000003,3879.5511569999994,2343.827682,2329.827682,2273.827682,3591.428504,2534.238314,2824.7683140000004,2522.718314,6165.718314,6616.613074,6838.0600970000005,6838.060097,6838.0600970000005,6838.060097,6974.150097000001,7074.420097,7068.458985,7265.630383000001,7265.630383,6997.674827000001,6991.2048270000005,7328.401804,7278.401804,7278.401803999999,7278.401804,7278.401804,7478.401804,7506.391804,7506.391804000001,7506.391804000001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"237598","ticker":"iran-leader-end-of-2026","slug":"iran-leader-end-of-2026","title":"Iran leader end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T00:15:11.057586Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40462930.604207,"volume_24hr":6758.97498,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.18885040283203,"normalized_volume":69.67999267578125,"liquidity":1732772.71836,"open_interest":809398.741329,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"103796","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-100","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Mojtaba Khamenei","top_outcome_probability":0.85,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.006000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-51674.161036,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:24.940133Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:24.940133Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[55248.916054,55237.092554,55226.424887,54931.986315,15754.986315,15764.304648000001,16625.183254,16252.885254,16238.835254000001,16304.437254,16312.547254,16179.647254,6121.839030999999,6137.159031,6536.689031,6475.4190309999985,6479.159030999999,6646.757995999999,6569.957626999999,6583.227626999999,6639.304292999999,6658.632456999999,6719.459560999999,5886.846227,5792.408559,6109.734979,7397.023313,7318.1833129999995,7309.581313,6805.951313,6802.05498]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79221","ticker":"modi-out-before-2027","slug":"modi-out-before-2027","title":"Modi out by December 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/modi-out-in-2025-x4XphmhTDmqL.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/modi-out-in-2025-x4XphmhTDmqL.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T18:31:24.380000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":424919.84920100006,"volume_24hr":6212.976797,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.5317440032959,"normalized_volume":38.14436721801758,"liquidity":183127.23911,"open_interest":105157.882262,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102083","slug":"india-pakistan","label":"India-Pakistan"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"518","slug":"india","label":"India"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"872","slug":"pakistan","label":"Pakistan"},{"id":"105712","slug":"cockroach-party","label":"Cockroach Party"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0355,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0004999999999999935,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4358.087908,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/modi-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[1868.438889,1868.438889,1868.438889,1868.438889,1868.438889,1868.438889,1868.438889,1854.888889,1854.888889,1854.888889,1854.888889,1854.888889,1854.888889,1641.0,1641.0,1631.0,1631.0,5036.126217,7783.614112,7783.614112,7783.614112,7783.614112,7783.614112,7783.614112,7783.614112,6202.614112,6202.614112,6202.614112,6202.614112,6202.614112,6212.976797]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1082031","ticker":"trump-putin-and-xi-seen-together-before-2027","slug":"trump-putin-and-xi-seen-together-before-2027","title":"Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping are photographed or videotaped together, in the same frame, between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the images or video of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping together.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/joint-russia-china-usa-meeting-in-march-xEijAK2JsP-b.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/joint-russia-china-usa-meeting-in-march-xEijAK2JsP-b.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-25T20:22:58Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42609.006107,"volume_24hr":5745.010062,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.968984603881836,"normalized_volume":25.80744743347168,"liquidity":26568.1665,"open_interest":33340.729682,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102778","slug":"trump-xi","label":"Trump-Xi"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"102477","slug":"trump-putin","label":"Trump-Putin"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.87,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5364.204346,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:44:12.765765Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T03:44:12.765765Z","added_at":"2026-09-25T20:42:12.946754Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-putin-and-xi-seen-together-before-2027","chart_24h":[380.80571599999996,380.80571599999996,380.80571599999996,5500.505716,5506.244349,5687.244349,5687.244349,5313.581491,5313.581491,5306.438633,5306.438633,5306.438633,5735.010062,5735.010062,5735.010062,5735.010062,5735.010062,5735.010062,5745.010062,5745.010062,5745.010062,5745.010062,5745.010062,5745.010062,5745.010062,5745.010062,5745.010062]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"139507","ticker":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","slug":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","description":"If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september-9bs9igLMW6m1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september-9bs9igLMW6m1.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T08:07:20.074000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22222525.338194966,"volume_24hr":5720.01,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.93779182434082,"normalized_volume":64.99356842041016,"liquidity":98063.7041,"open_interest":605106.8887930001,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103995","slug":"shah","label":"shah"},{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.044,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3599.5500000000006,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:10.925275Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:10.925275Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","chart_24h":[2115.4599999999996,2115.4599999999996,2120.4599999999996,2252.4599999999996,2252.4599999999996,2252.4599999999996,2252.4599999999996,143.39,143.39,143.39,143.39,143.39,143.39,143.39,137.0,137.0,141.14,141.14,141.14,141.14,141.14,141.14,141.14,141.14,1623.94,5669.01,5669.01,5720.01,5720.01,5720.01,5720.01]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79222","ticker":"iran-nuke-before-2027","slug":"iran-nuke-before-2027","title":"Iran Nuke before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-nuke-in-2025-3-0yDLZSfMow.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-nuke-in-2025-3-0yDLZSfMow.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:10:38.346766Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1426429.794821,"volume_24hr":4616.527777999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.424266815185547,"normalized_volume":45.6063232421875,"liquidity":110946.88239,"open_interest":430402.625547,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"1289","slug":"nuclear","label":"Nuclear"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.043,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.006499999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2281.5677779999987,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:04:05.562641Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027","chart_24h":[2171.98,2171.98,2171.98,2334.96,2334.96,2334.96,2334.96,2334.96,180.67000000000002,228.93,228.93,228.93,228.92999999999998,228.93,220.72,215.35999999999999,359.65,359.65,359.65,359.65,359.65,1692.427778,4016.5277779999997,4616.527777999999,4616.527777999999,4616.527777999999,4616.527777999999,4616.527777999999,4616.527777999999,4616.527777999999,4616.527777999999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1045598","ticker":"russia-military-action-against-eu-country-byptptpt","slug":"russia-military-action-against-eu-country-byptptpt","title":"Russia military action against EU country by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify.\n\nAn \"EU member state\" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nSabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nMunitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify.\n\nThe territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T00:37:35Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":292044.53037,"volume_24hr":4585.26394,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.376903533935547,"normalized_volume":35.96885681152344,"liquidity":53422.5861,"open_interest":118362.901824,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"100262","slug":"european-union","label":"European Union "},{"id":"464","slug":"military-action","label":"Military Actions"},{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.265,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.04000000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1297.222727,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:51.230746Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:06:51.230746Z","added_at":"2026-09-19T00:56:30.979401Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-military-action-against-eu-country-byptptpt","chart_24h":[2598.38,2598.38,2598.38,2598.38,2598.38,2567.38,2567.38,2392.39,2392.39,2392.39,2392.39,2408.056667,2408.056667,2408.0566670000003,1498.976667,1498.976667,1514.636667,1494.636667,1747.12394,1747.1239400000002,1747.12394,2267.12394,833.93394,4582.85394,4582.85394,4590.37394,4590.37394,4590.37394,4585.26394,4585.26394,4585.26394]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ACIIs2ngRC","ticker":"ACIIs2ngRC","slug":"will-something-crazy-happen-monthly","title":"Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]","description":"For each month, the option resolves YES if, during that month, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:\n\nOn Google Trends, pick \"Worldwide\" and \"Web Search\".\n\nPick a search term that you want to check for craziness.\n\nPick \"google\" as the search term to compare to.\n\nLook at the end-of-day scores for \"google\" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).\n\nIf on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.\n\nImportant exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:\n\nOlympics\n\nWorld Cup\n\nBig movie releases\n\nU.S. presidential elections\n\nSome events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:\n\nCOVID-19 pandemic\n\nJanuary 6 capitol riots\n\nRussian invasion of Ukraine\n\nWill Smith slapping Chris Rock\n\nDeath of Queen Elizabeth II\n\nIsrael-Gaza war\n\nTrump assassination attempt\n\nBiden dropping out of election\n\nIran-Israel war\n\nCharlie Kirk assassination\n\nPrior to any month, I may modify the criteria to preserve the intent of the market, if for example, \"Google\" is no longer a popular search term. Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.\n\nUPDATES: \n\nGoing forward, an event must end up having a Wikipedia article associated with it in order to qualify. The article must be about the same specific event as the Google Trends search term, according to my judgement. For example, the Wikipedia article on Will Smith is not specific enough to relate to the slap incident, but Chris Rock–Will Smith slapping incident is.\n\nOnce a search term becomes crazy, its history is \"reset\". That means for it to qualify again, its popularity must quintuple from since after it became crazy. That is, you cannot pick an old past_day to satisfy the quintupling requirement.\n\nResolutions\n\nJanuary: Capture of Nicolas Maduro\n\nFebruary: Israeli–United States strikes on Iran\n\nMarch: None","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:29:05.847000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":140883.65404408795,"volume_24hr":250.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.2027530670166,"normalized_volume":51.70657730102539,"liquidity":12000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Politics","Culture"],"tags":["world-default","politics-default","news","culture-default","entertainment"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"February","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:03:37.396291Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:03:37.396291Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-something-crazy-happen-monthly","chart_24h":[1500.0,250.0,250.0,250.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"HHMBpzWwI67BHLS82G1P","ticker":null,"slug":"will-russia-invade-any-nato-country-e02c9aeb4b88","title":"Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?","description":"Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?\n\n\t•\tThis question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.\n\n\t•\tFor the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.\n\n\t•\tVerification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.\n\n\t•\tIncidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\n\t•\tThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/FedorShabashev%2F45003eb2c755.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-05T11:43:55.182000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20742.239326662686,"volume_24hr":250.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.2027530670166,"normalized_volume":36.34646987915039,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.055267,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.055267,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":250.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":"2026-09-01T17:31:54.071958Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/FedorShabashev/will-russia-invade-any-nato-country-e02c9aeb4b88","chart_24h":[0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267,0.055267]}],"meta":{"page":1,"page_size":50,"total":618,"total_pages":13}}