{"items":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"79987","ticker":"next-french-presidential-election","slug":"next-french-presidential-election","title":"Next French Presidential Election","description":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:10:18.574088Z","end_date":"2027-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":95502395.8980392,"volume_24hr":911995.357041,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.05772399902344,"normalized_volume":74.13740539550781,"liquidity":9588626.69901,"open_interest":710527.0066630002,"categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100282","slug":"french-election","label":"French Election"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Jordan Bardella","top_outcome_probability":0.295,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":45361.146586,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","chart_24h":[637259.475101,654187.190134,669396.71467,675625.1622400001,679130.117169,681856.220881,680806.505175,689740.99852,690416.832337,769726.1531390001,765851.140703,766175.540424,739023.811085,737474.679203,758863.317269,762152.287555,766352.9120750001,783239.802186,760221.438178,760022.629224,753303.127909,750915.932654,757284.187201,749584.979647,738778.088313,752691.5382830001,727614.9544880001,716238.8919610002,833961.2998090001,902483.7536170001,929733.251732,914583.940963,905361.629696]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"108634","ticker":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30","slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-17T23:04:55.928775Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":51119941.42696233,"volume_24hr":514160.1717179999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.83790588378906,"normalized_volume":69.1799087524414,"liquidity":754364.84031,"open_interest":11733590.836979,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-228653.78755400056,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30","chart_24h":[754523.5181930005,655807.7193610003,572906.3380210004,560304.8083650004,518931.36346400046,451595.78348300053,441042.8092120005,445908.93603200046,433546.5683220004,437263.2683220004,443076.686158,536236.3036849999,514833.8431649999,516645.76391700003,503127.0129080001,544810.899847,552010.200684,592431.965102,602428.3725040002,600288.867117,603847.2038390001,586390.15255,470158.4462589998,495295.12033199985,496614.3603749998,489635.0539429998,485613.2843969997,571092.7579649998,545006.7309139998,547072.5181479998,515689.4136059999,513811.79971999984,514717.3476489999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"108031","ticker":"us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30","slug":"us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30","title":"US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-17T22:54:48.222970Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6491069.047917081,"volume_24hr":300594.25601700024,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.25294494628906,"normalized_volume":54.02809524536133,"liquidity":141656.0658,"open_interest":1565528.158038,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"1289","slug":"nuclear","label":"Nuclear"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.195,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":36147.85948700021,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30","chart_24h":[260725.65513900004,267093.205815,237969.986345,237513.586933,205662.50796100008,219957.16987000007,259866.3089430001,261167.20699300003,265264.65835300006,276241.6013160001,293636.8861640001,330828.303541,346963.790656,351566.53891400015,357186.6466050001,356868.4541840001,368317.807888,368739.734518,370090.960027,369476.809013,363262.6512370001,360175.0879820001,352680.04586,351001.12473100005,336894.72517800005,337268.14399300003,334020.61395100004,332925.1710890001,318303.05807300017,316459.8069140002,318789.41143300023,309640.16014300025,301271.26835100027]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"45915","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election","slug":"brazil-presidential-election","title":"Brazil Presidential Election","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T20:16:07.362370Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":97431525.97039755,"volume_24hr":235250.40621000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.7800407409668,"normalized_volume":74.29887390136719,"liquidity":9389262.68334,"open_interest":3048739.1774809994,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101252","slug":"macro-election-2","label":"Macro Election 2"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","top_outcome_probability":0.415,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999953,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":26203.15153299999,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","chart_24h":[381977.130992,379991.44918,376896.312206,374485.89082,361661.187186,347911.709486,328002.191533,344783.418147,345201.127459,341630.858928,339519.41945,332248.540946,324066.090305,316717.605471,300895.838696,296153.155867,289193.350154,291427.229879,294397.401434,294649.168871,297137.971818,291074.02988100005,293310.909971,273785.723346,282362.42888900003,280885.780281,276921.747517,254542.171782,244648.420626,233971.074054,236054.13940000001,235972.35426400002,235133.60439800002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73130","ticker":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:57:04.067300Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":34979705.1540499,"volume_24hr":232364.19313,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.65678024291992,"normalized_volume":66.25402069091797,"liquidity":639597.7222,"open_interest":5955235.179326,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.175,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-13164.395625999954,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","chart_24h":[244213.807675,229350.195495,222144.88357200002,221667.96127000003,203026.921996,177517.93789300002,160837.38525700002,157206.51637000006,152839.21155500002,144436.94668300002,141827.29081200002,173724.68046300003,197454.30410800007,196639.48825800003,222145.53962800003,223734.10069700005,233480.274282,182558.01278299993,186042.63135699998,187378.48504499998,189302.011322,188926.70711,238670.762372,242480.10014800003,243692.632321,244419.58159499997,243498.079022,245258.174568,250578.546054,233352.812703,233326.22668000002,233108.796789,232969.54386700003]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"98349","ticker":"which-continent-will-win-the-world-cup","slug":"which-continent-will-win-the-world-cup","title":"Which continent will win the World Cup?","description":"This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026.\n\nFor example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe.\n\nIf the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-continent-will-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-mMG4porAJtxZ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-continent-will-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-mMG4porAJtxZ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-08T20:40:01.474834Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":3451236.9101719973,"volume_24hr":213139.38300300002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.79792785644531,"normalized_volume":49.76414489746094,"liquidity":907705.69885,"open_interest":478055.6664000001,"categories":["Sports","World"],"tags":[{"id":"1","slug":"sports","label":"Sports"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"519","slug":"world-cup","label":"world cup"},{"id":"100350","slug":"soccer","label":"Soccer"},{"id":"102232","slug":"fifa-world-cup","label":"FIFA World Cup"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Europe","top_outcome_probability":0.715,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":17744.214715000024,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-continent-will-win-the-world-cup","chart_24h":[220365.86582500002,220372.113526,220832.584236,235870.035028,236455.89712900002,236445.92135000002,216657.970601,235768.322369,219032.92589600006,216373.44338600012,170197.53079499994,148793.027343,154428.73972,156339.11982800002,158204.92470200002,150517.96515700003,138484.92575300002,148407.19270800002,152450.827069,152349.259719,152362.228048,163748.774216,177775.57161699998,177292.98352799998,196317.74935600001,206500.22247799998,216069.61926,224696.776563,224140.854268,224669.572242,216594.61454900002,213014.89420500002,213137.99411800003]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"577376","ticker":"iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829","slug":"iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829","title":"Iran closes its airspace by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T20:04:05.618539Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":150100.107178,"volume_24hr":150100.10717799998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.37263107299805,"normalized_volume":31.19485855102539,"liquidity":107034.34129,"open_interest":75446.48207999999,"categories":["World"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"102798","slug":"airspace","label":"Airspace"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.83,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.32499999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":9100.759264,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:03:21.899596Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:03:21.899596Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T19:58:58.882670Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829","chart_24h":[0.0,1076.617359,9136.503527999997,24545.155429,31908.889987999995,47471.953256999994,53821.62048899999,71845.046683,75154.08509299999,84241.151825,92920.3608,102031.81358699998,109184.968188,115051.93106999999,131425.34717199998,132259.587172,135197.53137799999,148044.844513]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34044","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:47:38.785111Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":34095288.06352435,"volume_24hr":143059.8998329998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.91109085083008,"normalized_volume":66.0588150024414,"liquidity":516127.78986,"open_interest":5860997.115104,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.07,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0005000000000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-86406.84269399784,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","chart_24h":[232976.62869599758,227925.1178229981,225895.08921499865,215656.46210199947,216077.6017379996,213069.52531799965,211080.67678899944,219759.79362699916,213538.9491439986,119931.63321099956,131712.93461099954,129810.29803199969,126924.74854499986,160583.30908799998,152533.93783099987,151016.02982599984,147444.4306859998,148389.55530199985,149384.6265529999,150171.49252399994,151018.32123699997,152630.42845300003,152224.60100699993,151942.2310039999,151000.7364029998,159140.64325499977,157120.38288599963,156758.6404359996,162946.71536099963,162412.36400399962,155528.4591889996,154986.79706699966,147326.08358199985]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"81557","ticker":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","slug":"who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","title":"Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","description":"Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-15T00:35:25.541518Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14447291.866046047,"volume_24hr":138798.85990600003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.62154006958008,"normalized_volume":59.68019104003906,"liquidity":1344756.18078,"open_interest":394467.7872549999,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103026","slug":"trump-netanyahu","label":"Trump-Netanyahu"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"104182","slug":"rewards-100-4pt5-100","label":"rewards 100, 4.5, 100"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Benjamin Netanyahu","top_outcome_probability":0.345,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.004999999999999949,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2111.196973,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","chart_24h":[98898.089226,99431.797944,100204.545717,101386.565178,97866.353241,99687.62820199999,101485.099031,103273.122791,103720.298016,103364.842133,104366.869287,106202.195157,106408.695439,107864.20637900001,108017.99422000001,109007.10352,150379.43657000002,162396.28264200003,162653.87063000002,162637.25665900004,162759.57934500003,170354.28201300002,171538.30620600004,170853.54421500003,163016.63534400004,155770.69275100005,152235.91466500002,152514.45828200004,152730.44787800004,152412.94172600002,146285.02579200003,140368.67334400004,140531.04902500004]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"149589","ticker":"which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","slug":"which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","title":"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?","description":"Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-parliamentary-election-winner-MnZ1Lsh2uVMq.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T21:35:17.019703Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10491231.173010014,"volume_24hr":111713.63320800001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.56440734863281,"normalized_volume":57.386077880859375,"liquidity":748971.88245,"open_interest":1116563.733647,"categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"United Russia (ER)","top_outcome_probability":0.555,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-46593.15730999994,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:31.879657Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:31.879657Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election","chart_24h":[145383.94401099999,146851.67238899996,148532.76491299996,149018.59281799998,146225.54801699996,149846.53452399996,152503.51788999996,153143.38702499995,157325.43823999996,157232.16876299997,149736.83119,147112.026301,128622.64176099999,123212.082901,119119.039901,114440.83357799999,114864.78928799999,115088.488466,112325.43209899998,112570.68997999998,122280.44565499999,120293.32373799999,121826.915642,116778.722202,118618.26627200001,114604.188398,112015.451209,111893.77545700001,116252.868572,108569.04368,111657.52405300002,108082.11532800001,111701.61920800002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73106","ticker":"us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027","slug":"us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027","title":"US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T16:51:03.959729Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1970476.586061014,"volume_24hr":104957.01693700004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.98025894165039,"normalized_volume":46.12776565551758,"liquidity":173448.8421,"open_interest":259685.042899,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"1289","slug":"nuclear","label":"Nuclear"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.66,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20682.764813000016,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027","chart_24h":[81229.30212400002,83775.25212400002,85628.86977000002,90287.43977000001,93114.968127,101048.998127,106799.338098,110848.511574,114186.01716100001,109910.67049700001,111266.66255600002,111119.64255600002,110500.660998,110506.69129999999,109510.62129999998,107721.11129999998,111312.31129999999,111939.94129999999,113490.81070899998,111811.92835799999,110109.92835799999,109053.85982999997,105445.14983000001,109783.84012600002,107897.85869600002,107700.17012300002,104408.11129800005,104653.12129800004,104496.17069300002,105093.90640600004,103341.54640600004,105331.91551000004,105499.48693700004]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"206793","ticker":"iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30","slug":"iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30","title":"Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-before-july-G-riWTpXuKoj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-before-july-G-riWTpXuKoj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-12T20:29:41.345722Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2084441.5495630135,"volume_24hr":97541.15641999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.29817199707031,"normalized_volume":46.48634338378906,"liquidity":63717.6356,"open_interest":408154.16314,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1289","slug":"nuclear","label":"Nuclear"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.125,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":63277.20621999998,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:44.043897Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:44.043897Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30","chart_24h":[33936.852969,34821.244275,37319.098624,40090.142972999995,40821.132973,44176.592102999995,51400.751231,52553.821231,56775.59267600001,57947.25417600001,58740.35030300001,62534.58141600001,75924.75411499999,77825.84494399998,78952.11417199997,82310.26570899997,87559.94427899997,90069.14026799997,88896.394617,89611.987662,89150.323882,93728.89666499998,94939.21546599998,95051.24832199998,94773.24832199998,96024.12501599996,97158.24111799998,95510.93342399994,94442.13432999994,94148.97814799997,99788.97480099996,97740.20283099997,97567.04260299997]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34584","ticker":"colombia-presidential-election","slug":"colombia-presidential-election","title":"Colombia Presidential Election","description":"Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-29T17:32:52.057619Z","end_date":"2026-06-21T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36284562.386600055,"volume_24hr":86605.72364799998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.20055389404297,"normalized_volume":66.53370666503906,"liquidity":4469324.69086,"open_interest":1438778.9996850004,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104117","slug":"colombia-election","label":"Colombia Election"},{"id":"101283","slug":"colombia","label":"Colombia"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"},{"id":"101251","slug":"macro-election-1","label":"Macro Election 1"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Abelardo de la Espriella","top_outcome_probability":0.845,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1105.3487150000146,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election","chart_24h":[86379.30315400001,93531.928142,91325.76289,97728.638493,98779.198371,101980.748388,106233.73452400003,110198.46376100002,112760.97719000002,116396.44138700003,120088.32896700004,125456.13028200003,127936.02582000001,127086.67005100002,125507.65755100004,125284.18714200002,112580.34142100002,107854.36877200002,102957.09348100003,102617.24407600003,103224.79848600001,102885.62318600003,101690.16685800001,98620.70803700002,97526.49790200002,95080.75995900002,91717.157617,91768.476731,88366.223065,86815.15306499999,86826.997767,87161.47364799998,86605.72364799998]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"30828","ticker":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","title":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/xi-jinping-out-in-2025-EjF4SM20eaa3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/xi-jinping-out-in-2025-EjF4SM20eaa3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-03T20:37:17.339047Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10119307.513094867,"volume_24hr":86122.07976400001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.14914321899414,"normalized_volume":57.13010787963867,"liquidity":176490.98168,"open_interest":2817882.869277,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"366","slug":"world-affairs","label":"world affairs"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"},{"id":"101253","slug":"macro-geopolitics","label":"Macro Geopolitics"},{"id":"103715","slug":"hfc","label":"HFC"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0795,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.007000000000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":71121.202794,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[14999.799385,15038.799385,15028.0119,15007.523489000003,15057.819229,30373.029229000003,30395.111223000004,29503.980414,28524.385442000003,28575.553275000006,26574.403275000004,27366.233275000006,20258.413275000006,20253.953275000007,62100.14327500001,62218.83892500001,62218.83892500001,62251.44761200001,62896.62761200001,62988.62761200001,62988.62761200001,62974.92898300001,63731.675933000006,66018.21007200002,64727.10793,64750.60793,64727.190207,64472.690207,64597.690207,87060.190207,87060.190207,86369.439935,86122.07976400001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"139507","ticker":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","slug":"will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","description":"If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september-9bs9igLMW6m1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september-9bs9igLMW6m1.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T08:07:59.869031Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20485361.258479957,"volume_24hr":82138.985327,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.715431213378906,"normalized_volume":62.23523712158203,"liquidity":697677.32946,"open_interest":1682748.208397,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"103995","slug":"shah","label":"shah"},{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.105,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4303.443533999999,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:29.916359Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:29.916359Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30","chart_24h":[22611.417729,22072.997729000002,22070.997729000002,21919.250456,21396.140456,21103.951275000003,17311.058549,16952.574049000006,17246.872838,71678.51428700001,71207.087941,82147.046096,81352.398919,81296.492468,81283.78430800002,87620.037413,84339.127449,84380.887449,84224.817461,84224.817461,84200.237461,84094.707473,83959.08769700001,84744.04769700002,84058.04769700002,84084.22926800001,83872.519289,83896.659289,84003.819289,84004.819289,82286.311259,82286.311259,82138.985327]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"17725","ticker":"starmer-out-in-2025","slug":"starmer-out-in-2025","title":"Starmer out by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/starmer-out-in-2025-teE3zEaEEyuO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/starmer-out-in-2025-teE3zEaEEyuO.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-02-03T18:45:44.284313Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":31279623.17685708,"volume_24hr":77960.57355200002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.23933792114258,"normalized_volume":65.40390014648438,"liquidity":245321.16717,"open_interest":1628246.356759,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"101319","slug":"starmer","label":"Starmer"},{"id":"734","slug":"uk","label":"UK"},{"id":"101667","slug":"keir","label":"keir"},{"id":"101617","slug":"grooming-gangs","label":"Grooming Gangs"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.755,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-17848.532078000007,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/starmer-out-in-2025","chart_24h":[140034.84680800003,139267.971384,141856.578611,136062.845984,115351.68266000002,114741.08169400002,118671.84060400003,119756.13703300002,114011.16036900002,120493.87555800001,123927.10546600001,114576.82504400001,114148.50739000001,108644.24987700002,92941.71136900003,92959.59370200001,90705.744925,90774.85445800002,91841.81655000002,92719.81766300001,87107.14285500001,78270.96931200002,76237.80181200002,75900.69288500003,77196.20385100003,76339.56178500003,74992.70130800002,74985.03302600002,74587.26080500003,76069.61231600003,82868.53243400004,80813.51622800002,79510.35638000003]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"60182","ticker":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","slug":"nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","title":"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.\n\nIf multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.\n\nIf no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-16T22:33:46.896383Z","end_date":"2026-10-10T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19905737.574153036,"volume_24hr":73686.289257,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.72762680053711,"normalized_volume":62.0232048034668,"liquidity":1405122.22912,"open_interest":1103170.6016019997,"categories":["Culture","Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"18","slug":"awards","label":"Awards"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Volodymyr Zelenskyy","top_outcome_probability":0.104,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1109.462597,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:15.572349Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:15.572349Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","chart_24h":[71257.872061,69075.566065,71186.691684,71367.569418,72608.356937,70346.3128,67657.75992000001,66238.21705,66462.93541600001,65891.479922,65195.790697,65070.332261,65797.01877,66378.184651,66142.02696,66194.263714,66746.976758,68627.806826,68776.932993,68292.056331,69936.08633199999,69891.389702,70375.47166499999,70265.664688,70952.056187,71089.215477,68139.52497299999,67905.462388,68808.027059,75439.02905699999,73752.588259,74718.563188,73998.515458]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79192","ticker":"israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by","slug":"israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by","title":"Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by-li5jCvNLbZK9.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by-li5jCvNLbZK9.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-11T22:18:38.908496Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3344435.229644,"volume_24hr":72399.878856,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.56832504272461,"normalized_volume":49.55653762817383,"liquidity":60215.51796,"open_interest":40255.894613,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"181","slug":"indonesia","label":"Indonesia"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.105,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0049999999999999906,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-183.247509,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by","chart_24h":[67931.055453,69989.635453,70681.635453,73157.635453,74855.289765,77202.289765,79237.959765,81907.959765,84129.959765,81216.429765,78701.429765,78348.429765,76647.72976500001,73674.184309,70386.638856,69720.638856,67338.638856,65461.638856000005,65062.638856000005,65120.638856000005,63949.638856000005,64454.758856,63363.218856,64544.878856,65887.878856,65144.878856,64877.878856,65998.878856,67981.878856,69305.878856,69426.878856,70903.878856,71984.878856]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tt0Uy260hp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","title":"Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.\n\nThis includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:\n\nRevolution\n\nCivil war\n\nMilitary coup\n\nVoluntary abdication of power\n\nEstablishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority\n\nTo qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:\n\nThe core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND\n\nThe regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population\n\nExample of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T00:31:28.667000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2790741.507691028,"volume_24hr":16774.101014193537,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.986690521240234,"normalized_volume":82.69249725341797,"liquidity":10010.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","iran","wars","geopolitics","middle-east"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.087328,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.087328,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0025529999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":16035.107382425436,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.084775,0.084775,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.099863,0.097385,0.094873,0.094873,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.104341,0.104341,0.101684,0.101684,0.101684,0.095028,0.087328,0.087328,0.087328,0.087328]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"107996","ticker":"ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-by-june-30","slug":"ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-by-june-30","title":"Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-before-july-vKEDpScXuAtt.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-before-july-vKEDpScXuAtt.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-17T22:54:45.373928Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2095550.6005640028,"volume_24hr":65935.22704700001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.72651672363281,"normalized_volume":46.52031326293945,"liquidity":40344.51395,"open_interest":48694.222044,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"},{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0175,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.017,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7983.091300999986,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-by-june-30","chart_24h":[57075.13574600002,59458.66574600001,62214.34574600001,63905.619798000014,66292.779798,68249.127133,72932.374763,74380.951685,77493.14168500001,76555.411685,75766.56967,73255.726161,72730.98616100001,69923.336161,66944.858294,67813.637688,68374.257688,66021.591049,66498.38104899999,65078.211049000005,64645.191049,63795.37104900001,62926.691049,62596.101049000004,63526.22104900001,63593.12104900001,64846.09563200001,64948.46563200001,66325.465632,67964.326887,67977.326887,66302.751847,66431.22704700001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"107726","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-17T20:33:19.960044Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10605333.770355813,"volume_24hr":62929.59559200001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.30923843383789,"normalized_volume":57.4629020690918,"liquidity":233629.10807,"open_interest":1735712.183902,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0075,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-19687.022563000006,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","chart_24h":[80995.259885,82652.834904,77782.59762300002,74183.56968300002,73243.88947100002,71112.91958900001,69129.08317500002,78537.06669500002,78110.24994900003,77355.72538400002,78901.22538400002,78868.83390500002,78523.69789600003,78235.50181500003,80685.76577700002,80854.90058300002,80892.76655500002,60876.61655500002,61028.796151000024,50911.73990100002,50347.35573500003,70338.39254000003,69367.21720000003,69446.15720500002,70175.02887300006,75216.51953800005,74376.29026100005,74408.66026100004,68874.34407600004,66179.70429600004,64881.52643900002,59692.58117500002,62730.27217000001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"146944","ticker":"israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593","slug":"israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593","title":"Israel military action against Yemen by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-strike-yemen-by-friday-cQzxFR39DsbW.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-strike-yemen-by-friday-cQzxFR39DsbW.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T16:56:32.519310Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2076077.0798899983,"volume_24hr":60952.82129499997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.024803161621094,"normalized_volume":46.460655212402344,"liquidity":29221.8483,"open_interest":129601.633647,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"738","slug":"yemen","label":"Yemen"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"},{"id":"104009","slug":"regional-spillover","label":"Regional Spillover"},{"id":"69","slug":"strike","label":"strike"},{"id":"582","slug":"houthis","label":"Houthis"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30","top_outcome_probability":0.245,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-40147.21227600005,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:29.916359Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:29.916359Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593","chart_24h":[102404.59636500002,97515.62694099998,93184.066899,77780.492033,66730.97647300005,54582.64200000004,50498.69557799998,51569.94469799997,51829.258029999975,50767.91593899997,47297.320998999974,49688.60496799999,48364.08541000001,49203.51511300001,50019.03713000001,53603.89540800002,79847.71977500003,76099.56799600007,78005.562995,77888.245126,75386.61686700003,71831.27509000004,71225.37900500005,67488.290547,67496.560547,67203.464865,65977.211009,64111.092588999985,63878.83281999998,62865.11151999997,62621.48204999998,62775.88204999997,61963.398255999964]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"79222","ticker":"iran-nuke-before-2027","slug":"iran-nuke-before-2027","title":"Iran Nuke before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-nuke-in-2025-3-0yDLZSfMow.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-nuke-in-2025-3-0yDLZSfMow.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:20:41.576407Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":854316.407545005,"volume_24hr":56960.001173000004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.423744201660156,"normalized_volume":40.961570739746094,"liquidity":105823.48645,"open_interest":362762.506304,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"1289","slug":"nuclear","label":"Nuclear"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0995,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-38234.603627,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027","chart_24h":[94478.6048,96899.7148,96076.7148,98991.40479999999,92469.9148,94653.9148,96280.189522,99127.03952199999,100020.775391,96674.775391,92288.915391,89091.69539099999,87300.421151,82708.05115099999,78183.051151,82104.930161,89372.30756599999,83708.74750900001,80127.658742,76005.358742,73155.39626299999,71054.396263,65892.39626300002,60858.39626300001,60289.39626300001,57851.615153000006,55810.525055000006,55696.525055000006,56482.205055,55701.205055000006,57059.557463,56877.001173000004,56538.001173000004]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73056","ticker":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","slug":"ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","title":"Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T18:06:00.699378Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2216483.819981002,"volume_24hr":52073.40665799999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.63370895385742,"normalized_volume":46.87964630126953,"liquidity":83875.6069,"open_interest":197634.005339,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103027","slug":"ukraine-peace-deal","label":"Ukraine Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.265,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-13406.869577000012,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","chart_24h":[63718.114069,66092.663369,68766.575594,71486.505594,74567.616709,77507.643735,80676.72734900001,81831.287349,84219.75173300003,87580.93137400002,89429.68423000003,90801.82315000001,93379.82315000001,94963.28315000002,96774.59782400003,99477.59782400003,99470.72195100001,100329.12581600001,98068.42211400002,95573.422114,91927.422114,87925.42211399999,84569.42211399999,81127.42211399999,76771.450142,74745.40014199998,71441.51125499999,68207.51125499999,66260.00125499998,63826.00125499999,59235.352604999985,56709.406657999985,53451.40665799999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"106049","ticker":"armenia-parliamentary-election-winner","slug":"armenia-parliamentary-election-winner","title":"Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner","description":"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.\n\nIf voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. \n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/armenia-parliamentary-election-winner-hz0NOrZI9oH0.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/armenia-parliamentary-election-winner-hz0NOrZI9oH0.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-16T00:24:41.168584Z","end_date":"2026-06-07T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1112787.5152950024,"volume_24hr":50000.48951,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.27804946899414,"normalized_volume":42.56235122680664,"liquidity":588145.63757,"open_interest":336161.736227,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"333","slug":"armenia","label":"Armenia"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104743","slug":"main-election","label":"Main Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Civil Contract","top_outcome_probability":0.9945,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0034999999999999476,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":19676.809402,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:23.827226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/armenia-parliamentary-election-winner","chart_24h":[32832.608189,32536.679699,32401.249699,21473.989699,19638.241138999998,18782.96343,16679.645561,16618.454560000002,15524.568161000001,15533.218161,15036.844684000005,38405.846898,39937.39884800001,35318.676019000006,53687.72538600001,50952.417437,49943.548537,50321.589787,50701.816446,50718.166446,49133.438617,48834.59092,48831.900542,48836.442813,48835.33113,48857.61287999999,48861.915280999994,49082.985280999994,48602.135281,49879.445281,48926.33071,50001.53951,50000.48951]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ApSIqcLItn","ticker":"ApSIqcLItn","slug":"first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","title":"First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?","description":"Which of these leaders in the conflict between US & Israel and Iran will be the first to lose power?\n\nAny process or event by which they lose their position would count, e.g. democratic process, revolution, ill health, death.\n\nIn unclear or confusing circumstances I will make a judgement based on major international media reports and Wikipedia entries within one month of credible reports.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-13T08:09:47.105000Z","end_date":"2040-03-13T08:02:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42821.373540934524,"volume_24hr":12711.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.17694091796875,"normalized_volume":42.69712448120117,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Health","Politics"],"tags":["death-markets","death","iran","israel","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Benjamin Netanyahu","top_outcome_probability":0.454021,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015203999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":509.5151444076255,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:08:08.953876Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:08:08.953876Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jrmygrdn/first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","chart_24h":[59.51514440762562,102.42796781376302,711.0,12711.0]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"199763","ticker":"next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-122","slug":"next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-122","title":"Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-iUBVd-KQCx30.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-iUBVd-KQCx30.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-05T22:57:27.385717Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9614317.315299015,"volume_24hr":47687.953411,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.86512756347656,"normalized_volume":56.7680549621582,"liquidity":1248878.67954,"open_interest":257491.142599,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100228","slug":"england","label":"England"},{"id":"734","slug":"uk","label":"UK"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103649","slug":"pm","label":"PM"},{"id":"101319","slug":"starmer","label":"Starmer"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Andy Burnham","top_outcome_probability":0.66,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.014500000000000068,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2309.694713,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:41.442583Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:41.442583Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-122","chart_24h":[47931.506181000004,47836.504681,44566.012681,42703.352036000004,41675.33851,39018.096253,37558.286753,36858.758025999996,37686.874687999996,48151.227354999995,49748.943527,49951.973527,50583.116527,49404.650527,48421.790527,47899.544141,49608.976141,56411.614061,56629.970315,56714.517315,52747.374315,51696.827014999995,53175.4443,52260.378014,50303.429514,50532.395514,49036.800541000004,47839.41003100001,47981.47253100001,46889.392531,49143.548482,49137.770482,47941.363411]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cnlR6p5sZl","ticker":null,"slug":"us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-end-of-june","title":"US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if the United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026. The agreement must be publicly confirmed by official statements from both the U.S. State Department and Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs or equivalent government bodies. The agreement should address Iran's nuclear program and include verifiable commitments on uranium enrichment levels and/or stockpile limits. Partial agreements, frameworks, or non-binding statements do not qualify—the deal must constitute a formal, binding accord on nuclear matters.\n\nBackground\n\nIran said talks with the U.S. over a new nuclear deal could get underway in coming days, building on a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at averting war between the two sides. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul together with representatives of several Arab and Muslim countries to discuss a possible nuclear deal. The developments underline the international effort to ease Middle East tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump threatens the Islamic Republic with military action if it doesn't reach an agreement to curb its nuclear program.\n\nSince May 2019, Iran has continued to violate the terms of the JCPOA agreement. It has lifted the cap on its stockpile of uranium, which is now 30 times the level permitted; increased its enrichment activities to 60%, significantly beyond the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA.\n\nI will not bet in this market to remain objective over the terms of such a nuclear deal.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-03T03:21:07.931000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":163888.29527054267,"volume_24hr":12142.6918690057,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.72140121459961,"normalized_volume":54.11990737915039,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["iran","wars","world-default","israeliran-conflict","middle-east"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.160036,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?","top_outcome_probability":0.160036,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014128000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":11612.584330702372,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/bens/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-end-of-june","chart_24h":[0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.163422,0.160814,0.210157,0.228458,0.211962,0.20769,0.2,0.2,0.181024,0.181024,0.181024,0.174236,0.183418,0.183418,0.183418,0.183418,0.183276,0.181865,0.181865,0.160036]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"25410","ticker":"us-x-russia-military-clash-by","slug":"us-x-russia-military-clash-by","title":"US x Russia military clash by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. \n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. \n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-otSB7i0OGwYM.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-otSB7i0OGwYM.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-28T22:16:59.907765Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":741961.6117090001,"volume_24hr":45996.43,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.551429748535156,"normalized_volume":40.120174407958984,"liquidity":44596.37266,"open_interest":35086.51880900001,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"464","slug":"military-action","label":"Military Actions"},{"id":"102305","slug":"us-iran","label":"US-Iran"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.0655,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.006000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":51761.45260800001,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-russia-military-clash-by","chart_24h":[123.787392,123.787392,123.787392,123.787392,123.787392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,38.427392,29.587392,29.587392,47.267392,36.73,36.73,36.73,36.73,36.73,41.6,41.6,8105.569999999999,24295.44,38200.43,44106.43]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"72347","ticker":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-03T23:54:31.344171Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19588711.822768286,"volume_24hr":36443.46165300001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.5545654296875,"normalized_volume":61.90476608276367,"liquidity":338250.3028,"open_interest":3534116.398295,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"103996","slug":"reza-pahlavi","label":"Reza Pahlavi"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.125,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-47796.50560199998,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[85324.387255,83312.487255,83274.025718,79972.264947,79982.264947,80092.33494700001,79740.64019399999,79740.64019399999,79737.3325,79609.65019399999,78208.690194,78208.690194,78408.690194,74405.95193699999,75359.79269899998,75395.59269899999,75738.43423599997,76125.44423599998,76186.06654199997,76150.20073799997,76144.18073799997,78192.51073799997,44338.53073800001,44338.53073800001,44374.038012000005,44374.038012000005,44397.76801200001,44430.55801200001,44564.778012,44555.687103000004,44487.50528800001,44533.75165300001,36441.85165300001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"287195","ticker":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-june","slug":"bank-of-japan-decision-in-june","title":"Bank of Japan Decision in June?","description":"The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/boj-emergency-rate-cut-in-august-K4KcXEDWiliA.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-19T23:17:51.829904Z","end_date":"2026-06-16T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":409767.27967000025,"volume_24hr":36394.57765399999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.54317855834961,"normalized_volume":36.67319107055664,"liquidity":106238.10382,"open_interest":105521.21431400001,"categories":["Economy","World"],"tags":[{"id":"101522","slug":"japan","label":"Japan"},{"id":"131","slug":"interest-rates","label":"interest rates"},{"id":"103176","slug":"Global-Rates","label":"Global Rates"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"101800","slug":"economic-policy","label":"Economic Policy"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"25 bps increase","top_outcome_probability":0.9835,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-194.7667879999999,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:48.029214Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:48.029214Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-june","chart_24h":[21148.632946,20187.482946,20523.602946,20662.197124,20052.66952,21795.536161,22364.812828,23633.319828,23633.319828,25287.574709,44011.883507,41993.478507,43143.764951,43097.344951,42935.129451,41367.103909,40479.548558999995,40479.548558999995,40377.785893,40377.785893,40156.665893,40136.676226999996,39523.163727,39314.79647,39507.921424,39507.921424,39528.939700999996,39391.26814,37466.73814,37637.507368,36824.507368,36579.937368,36394.57765399999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"52166","ticker":"where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-584","slug":"where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-584","title":"Where will Trump and Putin meet next?","description":"This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No meeting by June 30\" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.\n\nAn exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.\n\nFor this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/where-will-the-next-meeting-between-trump-and-putin-take-plce-ksaAP8PAZSZb.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/where-will-the-next-meeting-between-trump-and-putin-take-plce-ksaAP8PAZSZb.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-30T23:25:30.700094Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8341686.789181007,"volume_24hr":29870.536946,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.883270263671875,"normalized_volume":55.76987075805664,"liquidity":411544.67101,"open_interest":125272.035024,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No meeting by June 30","top_outcome_probability":0.9645,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.006000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":363.41759899999977,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-584","chart_24h":[33147.065585,33220.788843,31296.558735,29104.902356,29401.908021,28740.016650999998,30798.804761,30598.718319,30240.536503,30453.510842,35716.102763,40968.095943,44059.631443000006,44051.245213,42014.97999,36103.823623000004,36104.032095,33880.87904400001,33811.254224000004,33662.635224000005,33641.255576,33464.77363900001,34681.913486000005,34152.36643100001,34051.906482000006,32641.138243999998,30651.719867,30676.859410999998,30587.824947999998,29028.144638,26776.599721,26625.212546,26611.676946]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"108639","ticker":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-june-30","slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-june-30","title":"Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-17T23:04:55.698582Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3484390.178142005,"volume_24hr":27072.25454,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.068519592285156,"normalized_volume":49.82737350463867,"liquidity":93379.43624,"open_interest":753252.046415,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.011,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0004999999999999987,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":24085.720587000003,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-june-30","chart_24h":[3192.938053,3170.9880529999996,2764.988053,2763.938053,2471.938053,2338.898053,2225.898053,4146.248053,3711.198053,3417.196453,3382.651,4278.651,4277.181,6298.7859,6616.752445,7252.184039999999,8655.184039999998,10246.184039999998,11536.184039999998,11665.90404,13886.90404,14306.90404,15014.80404,17442.904540000003,17871.904540000003,19250.55454,20549.854540000004,21207.854540000004,22918.854540000004,23158.854540000004,24625.854540000004,25851.854540000004,27072.25454]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"46844","ticker":"will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30","slug":"will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30","title":"Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying blockade is:\n- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.\n- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).\n- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.\n\nA qualifying blockade is not:\n- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).\n- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).\n- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.\n- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.\n- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-december-31-nh3_qlz0Ip6r.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-december-31-nh3_qlz0Ip6r.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-19T19:16:34.624392Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1718489.4645840127,"volume_24hr":25432.283604,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.554969787597656,"normalized_volume":45.260929107666016,"liquidity":52682.68611,"open_interest":542959.875102,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"867","slug":"taiwan","label":"Taiwan"},{"id":"103715","slug":"hfc","label":"HFC"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":19845.939498000003,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30","chart_24h":[5587.987249999999,5459.777249999999,3713.590749999999,7497.785192999999,6173.755193,5999.282693,5998.848032,6396.9462619999995,6394.352261999999,6390.001886999999,6391.871775,6382.349275,6355.319275,6356.929193,16749.871767,16666.091766999998,16662.336642,26446.827892,26453.112945,26455.226839,26464.944729,26468.924729,26495.394729,26492.168979,26485.101604,26497.198354,26488.303354,26503.353354,26568.150604,26574.889229,26580.828978999998,26701.648603999998,25448.579979000002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"34051","ticker":"netanyahu-out-before-2027","slug":"netanyahu-out-before-2027","title":"Netanyahu out by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be 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Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","description":"This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific 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2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified 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2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-october-31-vvfzvJSdhPij.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-october-31-vvfzvJSdhPij.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-24T23:47:39.194904Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2429567.1191269676,"volume_24hr":19622.332909,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.45732116699219,"normalized_volume":47.47050476074219,"liquidity":58851.3412,"open_interest":624246.781154,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.105,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7175.744194000001,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","chart_24h":[8400.108715,8405.888715,12531.815981,13030.626557,13030.626557,13012.770122,13018.650122000001,12870.450122,12864.430122,12864.430122,12857.287266,12857.287266,14011.133417,14046.643417,14046.643417,14046.643417,13996.863417,13996.863417,13948.233417000001,13948.233417000001,5936.253417,5858.743417,19088.383417,19361.110688,19361.110688,19361.110688,19361.110688,19522.332909,19522.332909,19522.332909,19622.332909,19622.332909,19622.332909]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6Pt99ZSgdp","ticker":"6Pt99ZSgdp","slug":"who-will-win-perus-2026-presidentia","title":"Who will win Peru's 2026 presidential election?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to the candidate officially declared the winner of Peru's 2026 presidential election. The election is scheduled for April 12, 2026, with a potential runoff on June 7, 2026, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the first round. The official results will be sourced from Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) and the National Jury of Elections (JNE).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-07T06:50:35.850000Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57867.384406205696,"volume_24hr":5568.5386740457625,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.297367095947266,"normalized_volume":45.142181396484375,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"tags":["politics-default","elections-world","latin-america","elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Keiko Fujimori","top_outcome_probability":0.93793,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.007929999999999993,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1627.0451904878173,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:03:49.575398Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:03:49.575398Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T05:21:31.530005Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/MiguelSanchezB/who-will-win-perus-2026-presidentia","chart_24h":[15026.896280291034,14776.459316497716,15090.459316497716,14812.743854287442,15611.782114465828,13847.82835884068,11336.077760389984,10711.077760389984,9345.993611298545,9343.143663582654,9752.56081139544,9043.241877740993,10092.757087657401,8786.493153313755,8757.420857001809,8773.861725874152,8773.861725874152,8746.177921232058,8610.149369665258,8472.525636200873,8062.8153842886795,7858.323037567368,6916.323037567376,6580.408200095529,5568.5386740457625]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yZtIdl6R9E","ticker":"yZtIdl6R9E","slug":"how-long-will-indefinite-extension","title":"How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? 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If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES\n\nUpdate 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-06T22:37:58.097000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70791.78078334386,"volume_24hr":4956.618111945659,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.243961334228516,"normalized_volume":46.8171272277832,"liquidity":6300.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":["israeliran-conflict","iranian-politics","wars","iran","middle-east"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"4 weeks+ (May 19th, 1pm)","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:48:22.890817Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:48:22.890817Z","added_at":"2026-05-08T01:26:19.199637Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Mochi/how-long-will-indefinite-extension","chart_24h":[1816.7775143690742,1836.7775143690742,1091.2282348946135,939.2314659260992,989.2314659260992,1149.2314659260992,2391.1545864675563,2396.1545864675563,2376.923120541457,2386.923120541457,4276.923120541457,4305.600650058753,4305.600650058753,5746.618111945659]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"280375","ticker":"will-neymar-play-in-the-world-cup","slug":"will-neymar-play-in-the-world-cup","title":"Will Neymar play in the World Cup?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Brazil during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-neymar-play-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-for-brazil-mDv_mHZ77TzH.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-neymar-play-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-for-brazil-mDv_mHZ77TzH.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T17:58:40.687137Z","end_date":"2026-07-19T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2835916.1711939783,"volume_24hr":16222.999928000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.953216552734375,"normalized_volume":48.474365234375,"liquidity":60816.6901,"open_interest":393391.108285,"categories":["Sports","Culture","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100272","slug":"neymar","label":"neymar"},{"id":"100350","slug":"soccer","label":"Soccer"},{"id":"286","slug":"celebrities","label":"Celebrities"},{"id":"1","slug":"sports","label":"Sports"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102232","slug":"fifa-world-cup","label":"FIFA World Cup"},{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.935,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-65786.66532400009,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:48.029214Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:48.029214Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-neymar-play-in-the-world-cup","chart_24h":[82511.2897790001,80988.31525200009,81870.08685900009,82012.59387700008,82119.8853630001,81402.49995400012,81499.90709500012,83332.06040400012,83786.75158700012,88615.00047700013,88444.10811500011,89048.36852400012,87829.04571000011,43130.51606000005,40905.33369200006,33791.80606500005,30969.387492000045,28748.637495000043,28226.990831000046,28116.482151000044,30835.76415400004,30525.02521000004,30383.955210000036,22413.964010000003,21857.935277999997,21442.769565000002,19078.522702000006,18892.176411000004,18842.879386000004,18083.295770000008,18063.901731000005,16534.637159000005,16276.914823000005]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"33647","ticker":"will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025","slug":"will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025","title":"Will Russia capture Lyman by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025-S9G0KfdR8jyZ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025-S9G0KfdR8jyZ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-22T21:41:18.897452Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:55:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2537034.6606160016,"volume_24hr":14486.007177999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.07172393798828,"normalized_volume":47.75040054321289,"liquidity":24740.456,"open_interest":199177.23620500002,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"366","slug":"world-affairs","label":"world affairs"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102475","slug":"russia-capture","label":"Russia Capture"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.485,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-5196.762545,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025","chart_24h":[21943.813503999998,21943.813503999998,21943.813503999998,21934.023503999997,20826.361686999997,20958.228354999996,20955.528355,20955.528355,21063.028355,21074.181345999998,20662.561346,20683.852251999997,20683.852251999997,20131.170427999998,20131.170427999998,20233.170427999998,20517.360427999996,29525.929358999998,29559.539359000002,29559.539359000002,29559.539359000002,29375.362692,29355.362692,28870.312692,31565.312692,31565.312692,31565.312692,31565.312692,31565.312692,31565.312692,32135.422692,14294.643563,14487.287177999999]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"48978","ticker":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","slug":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","title":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. \n\nOnce Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-23T23:24:48.795750Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":746880.501112,"volume_24hr":13952.324917,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.781829833984375,"normalized_volume":40.15940856933594,"liquidity":66464.73684,"open_interest":83408.747342,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.155,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":529.5697720000007,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","chart_24h":[11125.018608,10964.318608,11164.318608,11148.052187,8362.731687,6046.351687,12260.672052,12391.595541,12490.985541,12458.061676000001,12078.301676000001,12078.301676000001,12080.58681,12985.876362,12263.654141,13430.320807,16371.623031,16575.043031,16407.053031,16415.053031,16415.053031,15579.105661,13472.035184999999,13472.035184999999,13442.774053,13794.344052999999,13465.084052999999,13465.084052999999,13465.084052999999,13425.610369999999,13930.860369999999,13951.148448,13951.148448]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73196","ticker":"will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027","slug":"will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027","title":"Will US withdraw from NATO by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nAny action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.\n\nThe U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025-an362ZpwM_Zp.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025-an362ZpwM_Zp.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T19:10:34.893313Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5875235.326545985,"volume_24hr":13196.347977,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.35371780395508,"normalized_volume":53.34360122680664,"liquidity":177817.34701,"open_interest":271044.81397899997,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101569","slug":"greenland","label":"Greenland"},{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.0475,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-3816.9295029999994,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027","chart_24h":[16813.11748,16813.11748,16813.07748,16943.02748,17634.126967,17626.001904,16589.056012,16590.969810000002,16589.42981,24577.24981,24690.421387,23665.293835999997,23665.293835999997,25161.533477,26639.582964,20218.627126,20185.466602,19718.440961999997,19642.280962,19629.460442,19253.100442,19253.100442,19242.618342,15790.317432,15800.763026999999,13273.972031,13284.417626,13284.417626,13284.417626,13284.347977,13284.347977,13196.347977,13196.347977]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"48930","ticker":"nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","slug":"nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","title":"NATO x Russia military clash by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nInterception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.\n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.\n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-23T20:22:28.888089Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2491008.2347400016,"volume_24hr":12028.88811,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.647396087646484,"normalized_volume":47.63190460205078,"liquidity":79927.69313,"open_interest":481422.34286000003,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.2,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5508.330866,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","chart_24h":[2091.494781,2095.6808239999996,2065.6608239999996,1435.2101360000001,1432.3498390000002,1450.5924900000002,1450.5924900000002,1367.7437750000001,1267.7337750000002,1411.4837750000002,1380.0137750000001,1605.632073,1605.632073,1211.4247430000003,1276.7817790000001,1250.2217790000002,1239.8807960000001,893.995773,893.995773,893.995773,943.995773,943.995773,941.5266389999999,937.116639,4192.436639,4187.436639,5250.678473999999,9564.768474,9564.768474,9564.768474,11906.488474,11792.142177,12028.88811]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"162089","ticker":"will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741","slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741","title":"Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n\n1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"military action\" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\n\n2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThe Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nNote: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-lHYttoC4kERJ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-lHYttoC4kERJ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-13T21:17:39.470637Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1023621.7305040025,"volume_24hr":11352.343818,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.20951461791992,"normalized_volume":42.053218841552734,"liquidity":191742.37365,"open_interest":143105.459055,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.987,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-16381.808407000002,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:31.879657Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:31.879657Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741","chart_24h":[27789.152225,27754.374588000002,27856.438117,27857.062259000006,27821.962259000004,27457.441122,27447.289985,27447.289985,27009.609985000003,26507.049985,21282.246456000004,13065.39211,12402.543563,12528.363563,12528.363563,12528.363563,12782.751456,12835.383033,12635.383033,11476.383033,11606.363033,11727.363033,10188.243032999999,10198.399033,10198.399033,10278.389032999998,10219.565503999998,9419.565503999998,9526.701636999998,19423.501637,11498.981637,11498.981637,11566.003818]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"31195","ticker":"putin-out-before-2027","slug":"putin-out-before-2027","title":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025-nWuurkC8qfbi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-06T22:31:26.266096Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T18:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7152370.05805099,"volume_24hr":11246.391998000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.13883972167969,"normalized_volume":54.698486328125,"liquidity":473028.1667,"open_interest":2974221.161166,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"102458","slug":"earn-4","label":"Earn 4%"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1853.1295319999936,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:13.415481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","chart_24h":[13099.521529999995,13106.091529999994,13078.917620999993,13038.678490999993,12983.720471999995,10470.227770000001,10554.510382000002,9921.901690000002,9911.562998000001,10024.922998000002,8542.454398999998,8564.394203,8553.284203,10103.404976,10095.964976,12784.853866,12665.296815,12554.185705,12005.151887,12005.151887,11782.929666,11741.263001000001,11741.263001000001,11759.011699,11559.021699,11460.687901,11449.687901,11445.099639,11445.099639,11438.939639,11550.050749,11105.606306,11343.783301000001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"73123","ticker":"lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027","slug":"lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027","title":"Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-july-r-FJXfTWnFy3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-july-r-FJXfTWnFy3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:57:13.906631Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":412451.2481769998,"volume_24hr":10568.782844000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.67224884033203,"normalized_volume":36.71025466918945,"liquidity":85471.31544,"open_interest":255906.642966,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"166","slug":"south-korea","label":"South Korea"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.108,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.017,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7770.851562000002,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:17.793145Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027","chart_24h":[2797.931282,2797.931282,2847.931282,5499.410877,5499.410877,5276.530877000001,6125.587016000001,8356.258563000001,8567.292593,8624.812593000002,8624.812593000002,8624.812593000002,8624.812593000002,8624.812593000002,8624.812593000002,8580.492593000003,8599.195659000003,12244.636567000001,12243.056567000003,12256.056567000003,12256.056567000003,12266.056567000003,12266.056567000003,12391.056567000003,12538.353721000003,12529.933721000003,12525.143721000002,12525.143721000002,11262.276527,10568.782844000001,10568.782844000001,10568.782844000001,10568.782844000001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"107711","ticker":"xi-jinping-out-by","slug":"xi-jinping-out-by","title":"Xi Jinping out by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/xi-jinping-out-in-2025-EjF4SM20eaa3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/xi-jinping-out-in-2025-EjF4SM20eaa3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-17T22:35:23.212822Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3264112.4623470088,"volume_24hr":10380.788610000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.53807067871094,"normalized_volume":49.39628219604492,"liquidity":47217.97601,"open_interest":413084.421207,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.006,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0004999999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1916.3672479999987,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:26.073479Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-by","chart_24h":[8670.254462000004,8612.964098000002,8659.723119000004,8627.296635000004,8893.518135000006,8730.630335000005,8722.330706000004,11641.859266000005,12155.756991000004,11860.111261000004,11053.371423000002,11098.313334,11208.972466000001,11532.351164000002,11470.961145,11512.750397,10998.162608999997,10812.142752999998,10629.195781999999,10535.280994999997,10662.220386999998,10230.739387,11823.239387,11388.741968999999,11317.341510000002,11341.903110000003,11191.06291,11131.147509999999,10770.36831,10707.394909999999,10564.766710000002,10514.53511,10280.915110000002]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"204972","ticker":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","slug":"brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","title":"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place","description":"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brazil-presidential-election-37lx5Jgvkbr8.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T22:53:59.785291Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3670105.5877120052,"volume_24hr":9585.082012,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.94501876831055,"normalized_volume":50.17148971557617,"liquidity":506979.76924,"open_interest":44512.215636,"categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100185","slug":"brazil","label":"Brazil"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Flávio Bolsonaro","top_outcome_probability":0.605,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5.186826,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:44.043897Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:44.043897Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","chart_24h":[2313.375278,2320.705278,2376.806778,2432.906778,2374.916778,2374.916778,3082.016778,3082.016778,3052.181278,2736.743021,2747.377715,5122.190715,5122.190715,5088.8573830000005,5084.242,5084.242,4246.302,5635.678665,7682.571997,7761.311997,7711.311997,7743.441997,7737.211997,7688.708012,7606.670512,7606.670512,7606.670512,7646.740512,8904.856512,9469.156512,9585.082012,9585.082012,9585.082012]}],"meta":{"page":1,"page_size":50,"total":559,"total_pages":12},"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"http://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?categories=World","as_of":"2026-06-10T09:10:28.888803Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"}}