{"items":[{"source":"manifold","id":"qpdlSsQzdU","ticker":null,"slug":"can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","title":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","description":"On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (non-explicitely-specialized for this task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable or better to the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. (Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed) can pick a movie that doesnt have copyright if need be. Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK. The resulting video must be about as long as the movie \n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/fvfp9L-qU7k?si=qCXEHIMcyziRmX1I)Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The movie must be theater-length (1.5+ hours), not a short film\n\nA $200/month subscription tier is acceptable for the model being tested; no explicit API cost limit has been set\n\nUpdate 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/subscription cost upper bound for the model being tested is somewhere between $200/month and $10,000 (exact limit not yet determined)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-07T04:33:08.159000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":804059.9771530674,"volume_24hr":944873.3088652845,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":69.4073715209961,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.479521,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.479521,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.016835999999999962,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":929490.4315320528,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T06:33:17.181565Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","chart_24h":[0.462685,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.488788,0.464977,0.478165,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.472862,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.48]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-be-worth-more-than-1-SuEQdq5zlI","title":"Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?","description":"This market will resolve based on Elon Musk's net worth as reported by Forbes and Bloomberg. I intend to meet the spirit of the following, but will use my best judgement to resolve, including replacing these sources with other financial media if I decide it's necessary: \n\n\"If both of these sources agree that Elon Musk has a net worth of greater than or equal to $1 trillion on any single date on or before Dec 31st, 2028, the market will resolve yes; otherwise it will resolve no. \"\n\nReferences for resolution:\nhttps://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/\n\nhttps://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/\n\nUpdate 2024-27-12 (PST): - If Elon Musk dies before January 1st, 2029 without reaching >1Tn net worth, the market will resolve as No (AI summary of creator comment)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/zn/950LZtSRRN.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-17T21:13:16.101000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1486269.9983710458,"volume_24hr":241533.09811271058,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":81.15496063232422,"normalized_volume":75.82089233398438,"liquidity":100000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.921448,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.921448,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0243509999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":238033.09811271058,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/pixel__/will-elon-musk-be-worth-more-than-1-SuEQdq5zlI","chart_24h":[0.945799,0.945799,0.945799,0.945799,0.945799,0.93547,0.935494,0.935494,0.935494,0.927392,0.916815,0.916663,0.918033,0.918033,0.918033,0.919371,0.919393,0.919393,0.919393,0.919393,0.921383,0.921383,0.921383,0.921426,0.921426,0.921426,0.921447,0.921447]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZRRud9Nc2P","ticker":null,"slug":"will-kamala-harris-run-for-governor","title":"Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?","description":"YES = \"I am running for governor of California\" -Kamala Harris. Market close date reflects date of market resolution i.e. she would need to announce before Nov 5, 2026","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DylanSlagh/5PNLZnECNp.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-15T01:41:55.469000Z","end_date":"2026-11-06T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1184609.6085180866,"volume_24hr":67747.66764069235,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":65.36210632324219,"normalized_volume":73.41962432861328,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?","top_outcome_probability":0.01,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.018463,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":67067.66764069235,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-kamala-harris-run-for-governor","chart_24h":[0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.028463,0.027573,0.027573,0.027573,0.027573,0.027573,0.027573,0.027573,0.01,0.01]},{"source":"manifold","id":"n6cEQPd0CQ","ticker":"n6cEQPd0CQ","slug":"whats-the-least-impressive-thing-yo","title":"What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]","description":"OPTIONS RESOLVE YES IF THEY HAPPEN\n\n1 option per person, but if you can credit the prediction about this question to a public person you can add it. Interpret the question the way you find most reasonable. You can explain your choice in the comments!\n\nIMPORTANT: the prediction must be realistically verifiable by me (can involve some searching or simple experiment), @Bayesian, in the event that you are not reachable at time of market close. I will N/A options where this is not the case.\n\nIf abs(your mana net worth) < 5000, I’ll cover the cost of your option if you ping me or DM me. \n\nSome details:\n\nThe spirit of the market is that if an option / benchmark / stated prediction is achieved via methods that would be deemed scientific malpractice, obvious trickery, or deception, it will not count as a valid resolution. For example, \"AI 10x's a portfolio in a year\" would not count if 10 different instances of the AI try the same challenge with their own pot of money and only one of them succeeds, and the other 9 go to 0.\n\nif the task is simple for specialized AI systems to solve today, we can safely assume the intent is to only count chatbot-style systems\n\nInspired by @liron tweet \n\n[tweet]Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified how different types of AI will be considered:\n\nThe market applies to any AI system, not exclusively to LLMs.\n\nHowever, for options that implicitly refer to a specific AI capability (e.g., 'jailbreaking' a chatbot), the market will be judged based on the most competent systems of that relevant type.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how options will be judged based on their phrasing:\n\nIf an option describes a capability, it will be resolved based on whether an AI has that capability, provided it is safe and practical to test.\n\nIf an option describes an action, it will be resolved based on whether an AI actually performs that action.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified their process for determining if an AI has a certain capability:\n\nThe creator will attempt to personally elicit the behavior from a relevant AI system and will also search for public online evidence.\n\nIf evidence of the capability is not found through these methods, it will be concluded that the AI cannot do the action.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the required frequency of an action depends on the context of the option:\n\nFor one-off events, a single occurrence is sufficient for the option to resolve YES.\n\nFor tasks that imply a skill (e.g. mathematical calculations), a single success by random chance is not sufficient. These will require some level of consistency to be demonstrated.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that an option is considered acceptable and verifiable even if it includes a negative constraint on the AI's method, such as requiring a task to be performed without using tools (e.g., without writing and executing code).\n\nUpdate 2025-07-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided an example of how they will interpret options that are ambiguously phrased about the type of AI.\n\nIf an option is broad enough to include any AI, the creator may test it against very simple systems.\n\nFor example, for an option involving 'learning', a simple database AI memorizing information could be considered sufficient to meet the criteria, causing the option to resolve YES.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that the distinction between an AI's capability in text versus in speech is an important one that will be considered during resolution.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that the duration of the verification process is a factor in whether an option is considered realistically testable. Options that require a long period to verify (e.g., one year) are considered unverifiable and will be resolved to N/A.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer involving an AI outperforming human forecasters, the creator has clarified their approach to such ambiguous claims:\n\nPhrasings like \"better than human experts\" are considered hard to verify due to ambiguity (e.g., better than the worst, average, or best expert?).\n\nA more concrete and verifiable benchmark would be required for resolution. The creator suggested a possibility could be comparing forecasting bots against human averages on a platform like Metaculus.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has resolved a specific answer to N/A, stating that its meaning \"changed too much\" during a discussion in the comments. This indicates that other answers may be resolved to N/A if their definition is significantly altered after being submitted.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer involving an AI performing a task in “some area”, the creator has clarified their interpretation:\n\nThe condition may be considered met if the AI can perform the task in any specific area, even a simple or “economically useless niche”.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer that is difficult for the creator to personally test (e.g., an AI making a large amount of money over a year), the creator has proposed an alternative to resolving it to N/A:\n\nThe resolution can be based on the existence of a credible public report about the event by the market close date.\n\nIf no such report is found, the event will be considered to not have happened (i.e., the answer will resolve NO).\n\nUpdate 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer related to an AI recognizing sarcasm, the creator clarified that answers may be considered too ambiguous for verification if they do not specify the modality to be tested (e.g., text, voice, or both).\n\nUpdate 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about how regulatory limitations will be judged, the creator has clarified:\n\nOptions that are limited by regulation are acceptable.\n\nTo make the resolution dependent on an AI's legal status to perform a task, the option should be phrased explicitly, for example, \"can legally do X\".\n\nOtherwise, the option will be judged based on the AI's technical capability to perform the task, ignoring regulatory constraints.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer involving financial returns, the creator clarified how they will assess the validity of a success:\n\nA single attempt by a single entity (e.g., a lab) that succeeds will generally be counted for resolution, unless the creator deems it suspicious.\n\nThis is in contrast to the existing rule where an outcome achieved by only one of many AI instances attempting the same challenge will not be counted.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an answer involving an AI making a financial return, the creator has clarified their interpretation of specific terms:\n\nAn action is not considered \"independent\" if most of the task is set up for the AI (e.g., being given a pre-stocked vending machine to run).\n\nFor financial returns, the resolution will be based on the absolute return achieved. For example, an AI making a 20% return is a success, even if a market index like the S&P 500 grew by more in the same period.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the process for defining verification criteria for individual answers:\n\nThe creator of an answer can provide input on the verification procedure for their own submission.\n\nThe market creator may agree to add specific verification requirements (e.g., that results must be from a peer-reviewed study) to an individual answer if proposed by that answer's creator.\n\nThe market creator remains the final arbitrator on all resolutions.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a discussion about an ambiguous answer, the creator has stated their intention to resolve it to N/A.\n\nHowever, they will first invite the answer's submitter to provide a more detailed and verifiable version to avoid this resolution.\n\nUpdate 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer \"teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus\":\n\nResolution will be based on a \"you know it when you see it\" standard\n\nHuman guidance through the kitchen is acceptable (the AI does not need to one-shot infer where everything goes)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-20T04:26:16.839000Z","end_date":"2027-07-20T04:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72010.30160716103,"volume_24hr":25040.36092989299,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.188880920410156,"normalized_volume":46.9603271484375,"liquidity":4500.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai-impacts","ai","technical-ai-timelines","openai","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:48:22.890817Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:48:22.890817Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/whats-the-least-impressive-thing-yo","chart_24h":[16.551740621801557,26.551740621801557,30146.829007108652,30156.829007108652,25030.36092989299]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ESzghSqnz9","ticker":"ESzghSqnz9","slug":"what-will-be-announced-in-tomorrows-Is8hQO6pUQ","title":"What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]","description":"Resolves N/A if Direct is canceled (delays OK)\n\n[image]To count as an \"announcement\", must include substantial new information. For example, a new Metroid Prime game being officially announced beforehand, with this being repeated at the Direct, would not count. However, if more details about the game were announced at the Direct, this would count even if it were announced beforehand.\n\nAll answers will be up to my interpretation, though I may ask the community or option adders for clarification\n\nPlease feel free to ask me for clarification on various options, I know this description is vague due to me making it quickly.\n\nA streaming title (e.g. RDR2) is to be treated as a port for market resolution purposes.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-06-08T14:06:18.616000Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T15:07:54.857000Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T15:07:54.857000Z","volume":20508.162995304552,"volume_24hr":20939.115271095183,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.291866302490234,"normalized_volume":37.00584030151367,"liquidity":1700.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":["entertainment","technology-default","gaming","nintendo","internet"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Deltarune Chapter 5","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.20557599999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":819.6570687518533,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T15:18:04.919864Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T15:18:04.919864Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T13:18:04.580894Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Kraalnaxx/what-will-be-announced-in-tomorrows-Is8hQO6pUQ","chart_24h":[6041.235424478534,6173.5542513998425,8844.959749518503,20939.115271095183]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tt0Uy260hp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","title":"Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.\n\nThis includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:\n\nRevolution\n\nCivil war\n\nMilitary coup\n\nVoluntary abdication of power\n\nEstablishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority\n\nTo qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:\n\nThe core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND\n\nThe regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population\n\nExample of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T00:31:28.667000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2790741.507691028,"volume_24hr":16774.101014193537,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.986690521240234,"normalized_volume":82.69249725341797,"liquidity":10010.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","iran","wars","geopolitics","middle-east"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.087328,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.087328,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0025529999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":16035.107382425436,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.084775,0.084775,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.083622,0.099863,0.097385,0.094873,0.094873,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.104341,0.104341,0.101684,0.101684,0.101684,0.095028,0.087328,0.087328,0.087328,0.087328]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LhlNpLyA2h","ticker":"LhlNpLyA2h","slug":"claude-mythos-anthropic-release-dat","title":"Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date","description":"Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Mythos, will count for the purpose of this market.\n\nThe model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.\n\nSee also:\n\n@NU2IyqRq0u \n\n@LhlNpLyA2h (this market)\n\n@8AyI5Np5yl \n\n@OchSUnInIq \n\n@cgl2IP0yIC \n\n@cstO2OAIhZ \n\n@LU5RqqqEuA \n\n@t5Eh629zRE \n\n@2OzL6Q56y8 \n\n@IZO2UZgUNO \n\n@2CqdhIO9cU \n\n@6SLuEUSN2g ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-29T08:54:30.730000Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T18:28:42.590000Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T18:28:42.590000Z","volume":39678.86663918112,"volume_24hr":12841.4091864726,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.278900146484375,"normalized_volume":42.08903121948242,"liquidity":1100.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["anthropic","claude","ai-model-releases","technology-default","ai"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before June 16 2026","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.10999999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":849.0561208431764,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:52:04.059118Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T18:52:04.059118Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/claude-mythos-anthropic-release-dat","chart_24h":[2372.739874875607,2323.287530929893,2401.0088761863403,2391.0088761863403,2392.0088761863403,2425.4038289512087,9480.271446995861,9675.271446995861,12868.705514649424,12841.4091864726]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ApSIqcLItn","ticker":"ApSIqcLItn","slug":"first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","title":"First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?","description":"Which of these leaders in the conflict between US & Israel and Iran will be the first to lose power?\n\nAny process or event by which they lose their position would count, e.g. democratic process, revolution, ill health, death.\n\nIn unclear or confusing circumstances I will make a judgement based on major international media reports and Wikipedia entries within one month of credible reports.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-13T08:09:47.105000Z","end_date":"2040-03-13T08:02:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42821.373540934524,"volume_24hr":12711.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.17694091796875,"normalized_volume":42.69712448120117,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Health","Politics"],"tags":["death-markets","death","iran","israel","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Benjamin Netanyahu","top_outcome_probability":0.454021,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015203999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":509.5151444076255,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:08:08.953876Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:08:08.953876Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jrmygrdn/first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","chart_24h":[59.51514440762562,102.42796781376302,711.0,12711.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"wpdomi6nif","ticker":null,"slug":"will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi","title":"Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","description":null,"image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/LarsDoucet/oyd2fyjfjq.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-07-18T16:24:36.649000Z","end_date":"2028-11-08T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":588148.3336158224,"volume_24hr":12226.24269036266,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.789554595947266,"normalized_volume":66.2518081665039,"liquidity":100001.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.161848,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","top_outcome_probability":0.161848,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010840000000000016,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":12118.781442118707,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:09:56.296620Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:09:56.296620Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi","chart_24h":[0.172688,0.172688,0.172987,0.173042,0.173042,0.161769,0.161769,0.161769,0.161848,0.161848,0.161848,0.161848,0.161848,0.161848]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cnlR6p5sZl","ticker":null,"slug":"us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-end-of-june","title":"US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if the United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026. The agreement must be publicly confirmed by official statements from both the U.S. State Department and Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs or equivalent government bodies. The agreement should address Iran's nuclear program and include verifiable commitments on uranium enrichment levels and/or stockpile limits. Partial agreements, frameworks, or non-binding statements do not qualify—the deal must constitute a formal, binding accord on nuclear matters.\n\nBackground\n\nIran said talks with the U.S. over a new nuclear deal could get underway in coming days, building on a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at averting war between the two sides. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul together with representatives of several Arab and Muslim countries to discuss a possible nuclear deal. The developments underline the international effort to ease Middle East tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump threatens the Islamic Republic with military action if it doesn't reach an agreement to curb its nuclear program.\n\nSince May 2019, Iran has continued to violate the terms of the JCPOA agreement. It has lifted the cap on its stockpile of uranium, which is now 30 times the level permitted; increased its enrichment activities to 60%, significantly beyond the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA.\n\nI will not bet in this market to remain objective over the terms of such a nuclear deal.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-03T03:21:07.931000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":163888.29527054267,"volume_24hr":12142.6918690057,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.72140121459961,"normalized_volume":54.11990737915039,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["iran","wars","world-default","israeliran-conflict","middle-east"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.160036,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?","top_outcome_probability":0.160036,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014128000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":11612.584330702372,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/bens/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-end-of-june","chart_24h":[0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.174164,0.163422,0.160814,0.210157,0.228458,0.211962,0.20769,0.2,0.2,0.181024,0.181024,0.181024,0.174236,0.183418,0.183418,0.183418,0.183418,0.183276,0.181865,0.181865,0.160036]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LppqdEh6NP","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-0zsApq8Slq","title":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before June 16th 2026?","description":"Reports say spacex will be IPOed on June 12th. Will Elon become a trillionaire by mid June?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nA trillionaire is defined as an individual with a net worth of $1 trillion or more. This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's net worth reaches $1 trillion USD or higher at any point before June 16th, 2026. Resolution will be determined by tracking his net worth through major wealth indices including the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and Forbes Real Time Billionaires list (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/). \n\nIf one or both of these show he is a trillionaire, resolves yes.\n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-20T22:19:54.040000Z","end_date":"2026-06-16T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96367.12933492263,"volume_24hr":10911.524004148152,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.66530227661133,"normalized_volume":49.438777923583984,"liquidity":1010.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.77,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before June 16th 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.77,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.005967999999999973,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-14696.9222736437,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":"2026-05-31T18:59:31.487717Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Mochi/will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-0zsApq8Slq","chart_24h":[0.764032,0.775471,0.81,0.782485,0.737311,0.752874,0.74,0.765193,0.672173,0.675618,0.669072,0.724552,0.746465,0.753657,0.746246,0.742086,0.697421,0.694038,0.688063,0.7,0.749985,0.743891,0.73,0.733824,0.732322,0.751776,0.751587,0.77]},{"source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","ticker":null,"slug":"starmer-out-before-july","title":"Starmer out before July?","description":"Resolves according to this Polymarket:\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.\n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-14T07:00:12.717000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":682066.1680505221,"volume_24hr":8850.224143022995,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.63196563720703,"normalized_volume":67.7376937866211,"liquidity":10005.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["geopolitics","politics-default","uk","elections","uk-politics"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.14,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Starmer out before July?","top_outcome_probability":0.14,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0024150000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":606.3965305133825,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/brod/starmer-out-before-july","chart_24h":[0.142415,0.142415,0.138993,0.13249,0.132117,0.132117,0.128823,0.128823,0.16,0.15586,0.15586,0.154736,0.144097,0.144097,0.143593,0.143593,0.143593,0.143091,0.143091,0.143091,0.137765,0.138062,0.138062,0.138062,0.130261,0.129823,0.129736,0.14]},{"source":"manifold","id":"A8PRqgUEgS","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-be-worth-1t-by-the-e","title":"Will Elon Musk be worth $1T by the end of 2026?","description":"as reflected on forbes real time billionaires list","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-11T06:25:29.827000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":74449.7677569663,"volume_24hr":8765.099883989951,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.53922653198242,"normalized_volume":47.240501403808594,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Finance"],"tags":["finance","big-tech","technology-default","economics-default","business"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.862605,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk be worth $1T by the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.862605,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.06820800000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":8755.099883989951,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/sama/will-elon-musk-be-worth-1t-by-the-e","chart_24h":[0.930813,0.930813,0.930813,0.930813,0.930813,0.930813,0.930813,0.806263,0.8505,0.8505,0.8505,0.8505,0.8505,0.8505,0.885708,0.901991,0.901991,0.807911,0.915905,0.915905,0.920389,0.920389,0.920389,0.920389,0.862605]},{"source":"manifold","id":"pch50lngIc","ticker":null,"slug":"will-tom-steyer-finish-top-2-in-the","title":"Will Tom Steyer finish top 2 in the California governor primary?","description":"Resolves Yes if Tom steyer finishes top 2","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-06-02T20:59:28.945000Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T23:59:00Z","volume":54460.731597975035,"volume_24hr":7190.5039035073005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.660884857177734,"normalized_volume":44.64403533935547,"liquidity":1033.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["democratic-party","california","politics-default","elections","us-politics"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.008917,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Tom Steyer finish top 2 in the California governor primary?","top_outcome_probability":0.008917,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":7.999999999999327e-6,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2384.991235076661,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T00:03:00.966206Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T00:03:00.966206Z","added_at":"2026-06-05T15:24:09.612600Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-tom-steyer-finish-top-2-in-the","chart_24h":[0.008909,0.008909,0.008909,0.008909,0.008909,0.008909,0.008909,0.008909,0.008909,0.008909,0.011967,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.011322,0.008917,0.008917,0.008917,0.008917,0.008917,0.008917,0.008917]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6Pt99ZSgdp","ticker":"6Pt99ZSgdp","slug":"who-will-win-perus-2026-presidentia","title":"Who will win Peru's 2026 presidential election?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to the candidate officially declared the winner of Peru's 2026 presidential election. 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The official results will be sourced from Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) and the National Jury of Elections (JNE).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-07T06:50:35.850000Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57867.384406205696,"volume_24hr":5568.5386740457625,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.297367095947266,"normalized_volume":45.142181396484375,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"tags":["politics-default","elections-world","latin-america","elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Keiko Fujimori","top_outcome_probability":0.93793,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.007929999999999993,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1627.0451904878173,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:03:49.575398Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:03:49.575398Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T05:21:31.530005Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/MiguelSanchezB/who-will-win-perus-2026-presidentia","chart_24h":[15026.896280291034,14776.459316497716,15090.459316497716,14812.743854287442,15611.782114465828,13847.82835884068,11336.077760389984,10711.077760389984,9345.993611298545,9343.143663582654,9752.56081139544,9043.241877740993,10092.757087657401,8786.493153313755,8757.420857001809,8773.861725874152,8773.861725874152,8746.177921232058,8610.149369665258,8472.525636200873,8062.8153842886795,7858.323037567368,6916.323037567376,6580.408200095529,5568.5386740457625]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8t89UnqU9g","ticker":null,"slug":"will-democrats-lock-out-the-gop-out","title":"Will Democrats lock out the GOP out of the California Primary for Governor.","description":"Update 2026-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will be resolved when VoteHub.com calls the race.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-13T16:38:30.314000Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T23:59:00Z","volume":98466.67831480694,"volume_24hr":5200.779198473746,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.67735290527344,"normalized_volume":49.62465286254883,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","magaland","donald-trump","us-politics","elections"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.01058,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Democrats lock out the GOP out of the California Primary for Governor.","top_outcome_probability":0.01058,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0005800000000000007,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-19947.166320150154,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T00:03:00.966206Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T00:03:00.966206Z","added_at":"2026-06-03T03:57:30.773560Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/ryanmccomb/will-democrats-lock-out-the-gop-out","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010052,0.010052,0.010052,0.010053,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010032,0.010032,0.010032,0.01058,0.01058,0.01058,0.01058,0.01058,0.01058]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yZtIdl6R9E","ticker":"yZtIdl6R9E","slug":"how-long-will-indefinite-extension","title":"How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? 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If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES\n\nUpdate 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-06T22:37:58.097000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70791.78078334386,"volume_24hr":4956.618111945659,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.243961334228516,"normalized_volume":46.8171272277832,"liquidity":6300.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":["israeliran-conflict","iranian-politics","wars","iran","middle-east"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"4 weeks+ (May 19th, 1pm)","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:48:22.890817Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:48:22.890817Z","added_at":"2026-05-08T01:26:19.199637Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Mochi/how-long-will-indefinite-extension","chart_24h":[1816.7775143690742,1836.7775143690742,1091.2282348946135,939.2314659260992,989.2314659260992,1149.2314659260992,2391.1545864675563,2396.1545864675563,2376.923120541457,2386.923120541457,4276.923120541457,4305.600650058753,4305.600650058753,5746.618111945659]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NU2IyqRq0u","ticker":"NU2IyqRq0u","slug":"when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225","title":"Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date","description":"Minor changes to the name, such as 'Claude 5 Sonnet' or 'Claude 5 Opus', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude 5, will count for the purpose of this market.\n\nThe model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.\n\nSee also:\n\n@NU2IyqRq0u (this market)\n\n@LhlNpLyA2h \n\n@8AyI5Np5yl \n\n@OchSUnInIq \n\n@cgl2IP0yIC \n\n@cstO2OAIhZ \n\n@LU5RqqqEuA \n\n@t5Eh629zRE \n\n@2OzL6Q56y8 \n\n@IZO2UZgUNO \n\n@2CqdhIO9cU \n\n@6SLuEUSN2g ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-07-25T18:37:57.203000Z","end_date":"2026-06-09T23:22:32.874000Z","closed_time":"2026-06-09T23:22:32.874000Z","volume":474132.64249188727,"volume_24hr":4951.4575420787405,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":38.23460006713867,"normalized_volume":64.11990356445312,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","ai-model-releases","anthropic","technology-default","claude"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2026-10-01","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:38:46.943382Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T23:38:46.943382Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225","chart_24h":[3200.310283344077,3303.188755403271,3303.188755403271,3453.188755403271,3539.188755403271,4659.188755403271,5006.492941243137,5011.117050080541,5011.4575420787405,4981.4575420787405,4951.4575420787405,4951.4575420787405]},{"source":"manifold","id":"A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","title":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","description":"EG \"make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover\". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:47:22.898000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12252908.100154236,"volume_24hr":4421.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.223079681396484,"normalized_volume":100.0,"liquidity":20916.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.329777,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","top_outcome_probability":0.329777,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.029588999999999976,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-824.5632275044572,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","chart_24h":[0.300188,0.300188,0.301702,0.301702,0.300398,0.30055,0.30055,0.30055,0.30055,0.30058,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.30815,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.329777,0.329777,0.329777,0.329777]},{"source":"manifold","id":"7lVceaptya1GPlGaeEWJ","ticker":null,"slug":"will-good-quality-personalised-ai-n","title":"Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?","description":"I'm imagining that I ask an LLM or similar AI system \"write me a novel of [number] pages, in the [genre] genre, set in [setting] featuring [type of characters], and dealing with [themes]\". Possibly even something like \"in the style of [author or mashup of authors]\".\n\nWhen I say \"good quality\" that's just my subjective judgement. It needs to suit my tastes, it doesn't need to be up with my favourite books, but I need to enjoy it, think it was a good use of my time to read it, and not just be pushing through to the end so I can resolve this market. My tastes aren't especially refined. I normally read books between 300 and 1000 pages so I'll probably be looking for books in that range. \n\nWhen I say \"instant and cheap\" I mean something like within an hour and for approximately the cost of a normal book. If you think the precise details of either of these are important, let me know and I'll set some definite criteria. I expect it'll be obvious one way or the other. \n\nIf such a service becomes available before the close date, I'll read a couple of examples and judge if I think they're good quality. If I don't feel the bar has been met by 2027 end, I might have to wait a month or two to give me a chance to read a couple of the best books 2027-end could generate. I'll try to resolve as quickly as I reasonably can, but I'm not the fastest reader and if the quality isn't obviously good then I might need to read more than one to be happy with my judgement. \n\nI'm not wedded to the format of my example prompt above. But it needs to be natural language (or at least very user friendly) and quite short. For example, maybe you could get something with one reasonable length paragraph, or maybe you can get something a bit more personalised in two or three paragraphs. Again, if anybody would feel more comfortable with a more quantitative criterion let me know and I'll think about it. \n\nI won't bet in this market, since it's so subjective. \n\nUpdate 2025-05-01 (PST): - Resolution Focus: The market is about whether personalized AI novels can be produced to a basic level of competence, rather than surpassing human authors. (AI summary of creator comment)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-27T15:49:48.197000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43538.9812495544,"volume_24hr":4389.528530100455,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.15976333618164,"normalized_volume":42.83029556274414,"liquidity":1475.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.600823,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.600823,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.20511400000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4389.528530100455,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-good-quality-personalised-ai-n","chart_24h":[0.395709,0.395709,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.600823]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OAL8q0Azzl","ticker":null,"slug":"perfect-score-achieved-by-an-ai-mod","title":"Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?","description":"same settings as this, but for a perfect score, not gold, and for the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026, not 2025.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-imo)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-19T14:29:19.157000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":205977.54525839837,"volume_24hr":3885.384887607315,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.08683776855469,"normalized_volume":56.20012283325195,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["mathematics","ai","imo","technical-ai-timelines","imo-grand-challenge"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.793099,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.793099,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.016755999999999993,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2708.384887607315,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/perfect-score-achieved-by-an-ai-mod","chart_24h":[0.776343,0.776343,0.773067,0.773067,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.776375,0.776375,0.776375,0.793099,0.793099,0.793099,0.793099,0.793099,0.793099,0.793099,0.793099]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RcNs5ch6qU","ticker":null,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-NyzSudIt9R","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.\n\nPolymarket:\n\nhttps://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-22T20:10:13.893000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T04:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":65005.392617133155,"volume_24hr":3694.5716950923074,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.6485595703125,"normalized_volume":46.104896545410156,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.08,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? 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Technology"],"tags":["openai","ai","technology-default","xai","anthropic"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"xAI","top_outcome_probability":0.98,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-40.131918848008354,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:09:24.216735Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T03:09:24.216735Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jim/which-of-xai-anthropic-and-openai-w","chart_24h":[2770.481663677801,4500.8314085075945,2230.3497448297935]},{"source":"manifold","id":"pLOp6I9sCg","ticker":null,"slug":"us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-j","title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket]","description":"Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-07T19:58:49.246000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96003.22892691623,"volume_24hr":2097.6163032375844,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.90662384033203,"normalized_volume":49.406185150146484,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.165981,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket]","top_outcome_probability":0.165981,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0018670000000000075,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1315.6468370887435,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":"2026-05-25T12:18:31.356079Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/vdb/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-j","chart_24h":[0.167848,0.167848,0.167848,0.167848,0.191908,0.20168,0.220994,0.220137,0.220137,0.24,0.2,0.193805,0.193805,0.193805,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.168638,0.168638,0.168638,0.167222,0.167222,0.167222,0.167222,0.167222,0.167222,0.165981,0.165981]},{"source":"manifold","id":"uzLy0uyLZ2","ticker":null,"slug":"acx-2026-will-keir-starmer-cease-to","title":"[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?","description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/40967)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:47:01.057000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":146318.2880032806,"volume_24hr":1988.5177870213442,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.476707458496094,"normalized_volume":53.10245895385742,"liquidity":5101.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","politics-default","news","elections","acx-2026-prediction-contest"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.74545,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.74545,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0130610000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1229.2661811342064,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-keir-starmer-cease-to","chart_24h":[0.758511,0.758511,0.758511,0.758511,0.758511,0.758511,0.753615,0.753615,0.753615,0.753615,0.753615,0.743372,0.743372,0.743372,0.743372,0.743372,0.743372,0.739924,0.74,0.74,0.74545,0.74545,0.74545,0.74545,0.74545,0.74545,0.74545,0.74545]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Z9shOszgAS","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-PAcZIOEydd","title":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?","description":"Resolution Criteria\n\nA trillionaire is defined as an individual with a net worth of $1 trillion or more. This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's net worth reaches $1 trillion USD or higher at any point before July 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by tracking his net worth through major wealth indices including the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and Forbes Real Time Billionaires list (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/). \n\nIf one or both of these show he is a trillionaire, resolves yes.\n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T21:29:10.929000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42413.773760764816,"volume_24hr":1988.4175541279192,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.476303100585938,"normalized_volume":42.62057876586914,"liquidity":1300.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.804432,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.804432,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014758999999999967,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":532.7264488698593,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":"2026-05-21T12:31:20.675059Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-PAcZIOEydd","chart_24h":[0.819191,0.819191,0.819191,0.83226,0.83226,0.83226,0.83226,0.80118,0.80118,0.80118,0.80118,0.80118,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.795067,0.82,0.804432,0.804432]},{"source":"manifold","id":"g6Z5yU5ZLA","ticker":null,"slug":"will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta","title":"[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]","description":"Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi. Please read the rules there.\n\nThis market resolves to 50% if neither event occurs by by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-06T23:25:37.920000Z","end_date":"2026-08-05T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":509345.03566510516,"volume_24hr":1982.0200079631786,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.45046043395996,"normalized_volume":64.82476806640625,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.49,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]","top_outcome_probability":0.49,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1776.0200079631786,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/vdb/will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta","chart_24h":[0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49]},{"source":"manifold","id":"461Vv3RpCpvUKKczW8Yw","ticker":"461Vv3RpCpvUKKczW8Yw","slug":"who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a","title":"2028 US Presidential Election winner?","description":"Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to \"Yes\" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nRequest your candidate in comments.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/predyx_markets%2F2194b04e5577.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-10T06:40:30.545000Z","end_date":"2028-11-06T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1264565.232662892,"volume_24hr":1915.086926723993,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.1756649017334,"normalized_volume":74.10702514648438,"liquidity":159050.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":["us-politics","2028-us-presidential-election-6tdsp26zly","politics-default","donald-trump","elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.165661,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.00015400000000001524,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-100.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:25:30.600041Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:25:30.600041Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a","chart_24h":[1028.4624060842043,1020.0,1016.0,466.0,475.0,424.0,814.0,2230.086926723993,2233.086926723993,1820.086926723993,1890.086926723993,1915.086926723993]},{"source":"manifold","id":"IPiiXMwXryN0x75PqV9H","ticker":"IPiiXMwXryN0x75PqV9H","slug":"who-will-win-the-2028-us-presidenti","title":"Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-18T22:26:08.425000Z","end_date":"2028-11-25T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72989.7652421083,"volume_24hr":1742.0398228209406,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.424577713012695,"normalized_volume":47.07384490966797,"liquidity":2795.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["2028","politics-default","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"J.D. Vance","top_outcome_probability":0.162975,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009531999999999985,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1714.943331726813,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:09:24.216735Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T03:09:24.216735Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Charlie/who-will-win-the-2028-us-presidenti","chart_24h":[194.35427008567112,1399.480697786125,1753.7904594357285,1733.86689558127,1742.0398228209406]},{"source":"manifold","id":"gtEN0EUcRz","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair","title":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?","description":"Resolution Criteria\n\nA trillionaire is defined as an individual with a net worth of $1 trillion or more. This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's net worth reaches $1 trillion USD or higher at any point before July 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by tracking his net worth through major wealth indices including the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and Forbes Real Time Billionaires list (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/). The market resolves NO if his net worth remains below $1 trillion through June 30, 2026.\n\nBackground\n\nAs of January 2026, Elon Musk is the wealthiest person in the world with an estimated net worth of $690 billion according to Bloomberg and $788 billion according to Forbes, primarily from his ownership stakes in SpaceX and Tesla. According to Forbes, he became the first person to achieve $500 billion in October 2025 and $600 billion in mid-December 2025. Musk's largest source of wealth is his $366 billion stake in SpaceX, which is currently valued at $800 billion, and in 2026 its valuation could climb to $1.5 trillion in a potential mega IPO. In November, shareholders approved a new pay package for Musk that could make him the world's first trillionaire if he succeeds in increasing Tesla's market cap to $8.5 trillion while hitting a series of financial and operational goals.\n\nConsiderations\n\nA potential SpaceX IPO, which could value the space company at $1.5 trillion, would bring Musk closer to the $1 trillion wealth threshold. However, the timeline for a SpaceX IPO remains uncertain. Additionally, Musk's net worth is highly volatile and dependent on stock price movements in Tesla and valuations of private companies like SpaceX and xAI, which can fluctuate significantly based on market conditions and company performance.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution standard:\n\nBoth Bloomberg and Forbes must show Musk's net worth above $1 trillion for the market to resolve YES\n\nMedia coverage alone is not sufficient evidence, as articles often rely on the same underlying source\n\nResolving YES when only one of the two trackers is above $1 trillion is considered inconsistent with the resolution criteria","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T13:27:49.235000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":133433.01113109756,"volume_24hr":1522.4893337970911,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.372608184814453,"normalized_volume":52.28247833251953,"liquidity":1150.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.78,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.78,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2078.774255419587,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T07:44:16.826858Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Ynad23/will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair","chart_24h":[0.79,0.79,0.798914,0.798914,0.798914,0.798914,0.798914,0.805375,0.805375,0.805375,0.819018,0.829726,0.829726,0.820728,0.811166,0.79,0.79,0.784542,0.791732,0.798554,0.798554,0.78,0.775365,0.775365,0.78602,0.78,0.78,0.78]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SAIUNdCI8U","ticker":null,"slug":"donut-battery-is-essentially-lithiu","title":"Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?","description":"(This settles EOY if necessary but we will surely know much sooner)\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThe market resolves YES if independent testing confirms the Donut Battery contains less than 0.1% lithium by weight. The market resolves NO if testing confirms lithium content at or above 0.1% by weight. Resolution will be determined by peer-reviewed analysis, official company disclosure with third-party verification, or independent laboratory testing from credible institutions (e.g., VTT Technical Research Centre, university materials science departments, or certified battery analysis labs). Links to testing results and composition data will serve as primary resolution sources.\n\nBackground\n\nDonut Lab announced at CES 2026 that it had developed an all-solid-state battery with claimed energy density of 400 Wh/kg, five-minute charging capability, 100,000-cycle lifespan, and materials made from \"100% green and abundant materials with global availability.\" After initial test results were published, several battery experts publicly challenged the claim that the cell operates without lithium, with specialists pointing out that charging curves and additional data indicated it could be a lithium-ion cell. The company could be using an anode-free sodium-metal battery instead of lithium metal anodes.\n\nRelated markets:\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/AristotelisKostelenos/will-i-deem-donut-labs-solid-state\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/donut-battery-powered-car-delivered\n\nUpdate 2026-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Donut Battery turns out to be a scam, the market will still attempt to resolve based on whether lithium is present in the actual battery (i.e., independent testing of whatever physical product exists).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T03:00:47.994000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T03:50:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":183883.74512746336,"volume_24hr":1482.5116574216997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.167091369628906,"normalized_volume":55.16264343261719,"liquidity":100000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.214444,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?","top_outcome_probability":0.214444,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.005832000000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-13579.436945135134,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/donut-battery-is-essentially-lithiu","chart_24h":[0.220276,0.220276,0.220276,0.22052,0.220517,0.220517,0.220515,0.220512,0.220464,0.215169,0.215169,0.214989,0.214987,0.214985,0.214982,0.214982,0.214945,0.214945,0.214945,0.214959,0.214488,0.214488,0.214479,0.21447,0.21447,0.214461,0.214453,0.214453]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Y3yK6IZWQaIYVtxGERNE","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-number-of-people-employed","title":"Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?","description":"Recently, many have claimed that AI coding tools will soon make software developers obsolete. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of people in the United States employed as software developers in 2021 was 1,364,180. The figure for 2022 has yet to be published, but is scheduled to be published later this year.\n\nThis question resolves to YES if the number of people employed as \"software developers\" in the United States declines by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028 as determined by data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Otherwise, it resolves to NO.\n\nIn case the BLS declines to publish the relevant figures before 2030, this question resolves to N/A. If the BLS changes the definition of \"software developer\" substantially, or their method of counting those employed changes substantially, this question will also resolve to N/A, and I will judge whether the change was \"substantial\" at my sole discretion.\n\nThe BLS provides this footnote: \"Estimates for detailed occupations do not sum to the totals because the totals include occupations not shown separately. Estimates do not include self-employed workers.\"","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fw42A15er2D.png?alt=media&token=88f1e59e-7c53-49fb-a206-c539663938c8","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-03T01:31:03.455000Z","end_date":"2029-06-01T07:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4546.591931306267,"volume_24hr":1380.9537531150652,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.62266731262207,"normalized_volume":26.629240036010742,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","programming"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.24257,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.24257,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.12159999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1205.8502592716768,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-the-number-of-people-employed","chart_24h":[0.36417,0.333859,0.333859,0.333859,0.312295,0.340163,0.340163,0.340163,0.397244,0.397244,0.342808,0.342808,0.291659,0.29,0.29,0.301577,0.342165,0.339254,0.23265,0.23265,0.24257,0.24257,0.24257,0.24257,0.24257,0.24257,0.24257,0.24257]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9h2sl00ex6","ticker":"9h2sl00ex6","slug":"who-will-become-the-next-governor-o","title":"Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?","description":"Gavin Newsom is term-limited and cannot seek re-election as California governor in 2026. 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