{"items":[{"source":"manifold","id":"AL0AppnEzq","ticker":"AL0AppnEzq","slug":"when-will-starship-flight-13-happen","title":"When will Starship flight 13 happen?","description":"The dates of the last few flights are:\n\n\nFlight 7: 2025-01-16\n\nFlight 8: 2025-03-06\n\nFlight 9: 2025-05-27\n\nFlight 10: 2025-08-26\n\nFlight 11: 2025-10-13\n\nFlight 12: 2026-05-22\n\nFlight 14: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen\n\nFlight 15: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-15-happen-9sz26lROnl ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-10-13T23:42:42.387000Z","end_date":"2026-07-25T07:42:27.200000Z","closed_time":"2026-07-25T07:42:27.200000Z","volume":707404.2242994765,"volume_24hr":86715.64692671945,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":68.030029296875,"liquidity":35000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and 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International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026, not 2025.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-imo)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-19T14:29:19.157000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":500217.67202237534,"volume_24hr":16453.499487113,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":64.57432556152344,"liquidity":10001.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.955775,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 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market capitalization).\n\nUpdate 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-20T02:37:28.142000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":428394.17772780976,"volume_24hr":9787.304404746226,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":89.58595275878906,"normalized_volume":63.05790328979492,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.45,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic flips Apple before 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down?","top_outcome_probability":0.124619,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.078006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6082.527911987678,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T09:32:17.411050Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T09:32:17.411050Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T02:27:59.150539Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don","chart_24h":[0.202625,0.0463,0.0463,0.05,0.066956,0.075017,0.074692,0.069365,0.069365,0.142517,0.142517,0.142517,0.142517,0.116852,0.116157,0.114428,0.119806,0.11908,0.11908,0.11908,0.11908,0.124619,0.124619,0.124619]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RrHQwZeT5alij3zRp5m0","ticker":"RrHQwZeT5alij3zRp5m0","slug":"by-which-flight-will-spacex-success","title":"By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?","description":"Both must be on solid ground or a landing ship, mostly intact, and stationary, on the same flight. Starship must have flown to over 100 km on that flight.\n\nFor details, this question will use the same criteria as these:\n\n@/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars \n\n@/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos \n\n@/EvanDaniel/which-happens-first-starship-superh \n\nAnswers are for \"on or before flight number X\", so if they succeed on flight 11, then answers 11, 12, 13, etc. all resolve Yes, regardless of the outcome of flight 12.\n\nI'll add more answers as future flights approach, as indicated by prices on existing 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2028","top_outcome_probability":0.418645,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.118645,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3244.5213387634867,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LukaszWiklendt/will-an-unsolved-millenium-prize-pr","chart_24h":[0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.394322,0.394322,0.394322,0.394322,0.394322,0.39,0.39,0.379486,0.379486,0.379486,0.379486,0.379486,0.418645,0.418645,0.418645,0.418645,0.418645,0.418645]},{"source":"manifold","id":"csqpIqLA8t","ticker":null,"slug":"will-bitcoin-be-higher-7-days-from-PI6OUEgURQ","title":"Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?","description":"OPEN 65,834.44\n\nStart 2:30 PM EDT 7/22/2026\n\nEND 2:30 PM EDT 7/29/2026\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is higher exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the market is created than it was at the exact time of creation. If the price is lower than or equal to the price at creation, the market resolves to NO.\n\nPrimary Source: CoinGecko's Bitcoin (BTC) page (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin)\n\nFallback Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/)\n\nTiming: The price comparison is determined using the price at the market's exact creation timestamp ($T_0$) versus the price exactly 168 hours later ($T_0 + 168$ hours). If precise minute-by-minute historical data is inaccessible on the resolution date, the closest available hourly data points provided by the primary source will be used.\n\nBackground\n\nBitcoin (BTC) is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency and remains the largest by market capitalization. Its valuation is highly volatile and driven by shifting macroeconomic factors, ETF inflows and outflows, halving cycles, and general market liquidity. 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It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:47:22.898000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12365131.367211847,"volume_24hr":3458.125809673929,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":70.45195007324219,"normalized_volume":100.0,"liquidity":20916.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.293858,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","top_outcome_probability":0.293858,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.003858000000000028,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1619.7354231258519,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","chart_24h":[0.29,0.29,0.305169,0.305169,0.306378,0.305862,0.305862,0.305662,0.305717,0.292935,0.292559,0.292559,0.292559,0.292559,0.292559,0.309213,0.309213,0.309213,0.309213,0.309213,0.309213,0.294489,0.294489,0.294489,0.293858]},{"source":"manifold","id":"uddgqpNQzq","ticker":null,"slug":"opus-5-available-on-my-20-claude-su","title":"Opus 5 available on my $20 Claude sub before Sunday?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-21T01:40:15.035000Z","end_date":"2026-07-24T21:03:31.932000Z","closed_time":"2026-07-24T21:03:31.932000Z","volume":4270.584925764869,"volume_24hr":3179.588342465914,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.00782012939453,"normalized_volume":26.205495834350586,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["claude"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.99375,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Opus 5 available on my $20 Claude sub before Sunday?","top_outcome_probability":0.99375,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0020900000000000363,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-258.3256982463831,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T21:06:45.788017Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T21:06:45.788017Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T17:42:42.595660Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/realTomBayes/opus-5-available-on-my-20-claude-su","chart_24h":[0.99166,0.99166,0.9922,0.99375,0.99375]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2tEzuphRlP","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann","title":"Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?","description":"I (Tamay Besiroglu) bet the mathematician Daniel Litt that the best AI models in March of 2030 would be capable of generating math papers in Number Theory at the level of quality of papers published in Annals today (i.e. 2025). https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1899262088369106953?s=46\n\nThe AI would receive no detailed guidance relevant to the mathematics research, and is required to accomplish this task autonomously. \n\nThe AI system(s) are granted a total budget of $100k in inference compute per paper.\n\nThis bet would be resolved on the basis of Daniel Litt’s judgment.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Novel Research Requirement Clarification:\n\nFor a YES resolution, the AI must perform novel research autonomously, not just produce a paper that could pass as research.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-23 (PST): - Budget Currency: The $100k inference compute budget is expressed in nominal dollars (current currency) with no inflation adjustment. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator endorsed an interpretation (via a previously posted ChatGPT response to a user's question) regarding the market's resolution. This endorsement suggests:\n\nThe market generally requires demonstrating repeatable capability in generating Annals-quality math papers.\n\nHowever, a single, exceptionally significant autonomous achievement by an AI (such as proving the Riemann hypothesis) before 2030 would also be considered sufficient for a YES resolution.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-11T06:21:51.988000Z","end_date":"2030-03-18T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":671238.6200563401,"volume_24hr":3140.3001914614556,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.79527282714844,"normalized_volume":67.50096893310547,"liquidity":5000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.95,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.95,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011783999999999906,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":185.36633696861372,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann","chart_24h":[0.938216,0.938216,0.938216,0.938216,0.938216,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tX13a8AhsXuxrDEpWanG","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-c4dd0657d4fa","title":"Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-22T21:40:40.446000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43898.60747047186,"volume_24hr":3000.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":68.01676177978516,"normalized_volume":42.84840393066406,"liquidity":1390.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.010798,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.010798,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T13:03:49.249430Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T13:03:49.249430Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Teddy/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-c4dd0657d4fa","chart_24h":[0.010798,0.010798]},{"source":"manifold","id":"aJNfiOgnBj8XYDdyrsbb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-attempt-to-run-for-a-thi","title":"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?","description":"In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate,\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8\nBen Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right?\n\nI use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.\n\n\nResolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024\n\nResolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032.\n\n\n\nEdit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here. \n\nEdit: If no clear statement or quote from Trump is available, I do not consider that sufficient evidence for the market to resolve YES. \n\n\n\n[Edit May 6, 2025]:  For the record, I’m handing over the ownership of the market to @shankypanky, she has the final say on the market resolution and all clarifications on the market.\n\nPinning the voting page here on whether this market should have resolved Yes already.\nhttps://manifold.markets/Balasar/should-manifold-market-resolve-as-y?play=true","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F861ab7b87f88.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T04:35:02.552000Z","end_date":"2028-11-08T06:32:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":189510.96091842247,"volume_24hr":2595.08054703261,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":65.57648468017578,"normalized_volume":55.37543869018555,"liquidity":1540.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.387248,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?","top_outcome_probability":0.387248,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.166373,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2595.08054703261,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-trump-attempt-to-run-for-a-thi","chart_24h":[0.220875,0.220875,0.262904,0.47,0.47,0.387248,0.387248,0.387248,0.387248]},{"source":"manifold","id":"czQp9L6RS8","ticker":"czQp9L6RS8","slug":"2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-202","title":"2nd largest company end of July 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the second largest company in the world by market cap at the end of July 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be https://companiesmarketcap.com\n\nSee also:\n\n@sUg2l62NZU \n\n@CZp52czdQL \n\n@pSA5yhznSg \n\n@IR9PCnRs9y \n\n@g56EQlNOPz \n\n@5PQQUZ5yzQ \n\n@c0dPCIcggy \n\n@czQp9L6RS8 (this market)\n\n@I6u0A6AlS0 \n\n@SuInzszsQu \n\n@dE9Uys0AlS \n\n@s0dORIdE5t \n\n@A5ASy8LdlS \n\n@ttCZpQ0O5p \n\n@ln2cAICQ6d ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T19:24:37.978000Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38300.32665990885,"volume_24hr":2344.988384959534,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":63.89751052856445,"normalized_volume":41.76172637939453,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance","Business"],"tags":["companies","technology-default","finance","big-tech","business"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Apple","top_outcome_probability":0.752056,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.1430490000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-9.90537610267711,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T09:07:42.512530Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T09:07:42.512530Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T15:46:26.727810Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-202","chart_24h":[932.4251297148938,863.5047290276143,798.6597961248536,894.6757025638916,958.1654892515462,858.1654892515462,1252.6948404926275,1994.1529816063673,2005.0828342241548,1858.0529820318613,1779.012412729065,1835.1421003546543,2160.1448902241154,2184.6550641000927,2195.4942758384996,2199.534476797807,2192.735551568998,2184.735551568998,2259.6954026300054,2344.988384959534]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9re3xe1soLUwdOEudDno","ticker":"9re3xe1soLUwdOEudDno","slug":"who-will-be-the-next-person-to-win","title":"Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?","description":"Resolves to whoever is next elected to the office, other than Nancy Pelosi, regardless if they are ever seated. Includes special elections. Expires before the next redisticting cycle; will be resolved N/A if no one wins the seat other than Pelosi by market close time.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/barak/vp7kbpancy.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-04T05:21:36.325000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1412376.657096063,"volume_24hr":2000.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.30504608154297,"normalized_volume":75.1937026977539,"liquidity":131000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["sf-politics","san-francisco","118th-congress","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Scott Wiener","top_outcome_probability":0.689417,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011717999999999895,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2000.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T07:51:59.989129Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T07:51:59.989129Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/barak/who-will-be-the-next-person-to-win","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y","ticker":null,"slug":"will-republicans-win-the-senate-in-738388924521","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?","description":"Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.\n\nIf a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fk28kghBTxb.png?alt=media&token=5edacbb5-bb31-463a-b877-0d281bc544f4","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-08T18:07:28.467000Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":90139.27166957434,"volume_24hr":1941.9521393799373,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.83112335205078,"normalized_volume":48.810279846191406,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.561269,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?","top_outcome_probability":0.561269,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0027770000000000294,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1231.4648144001208,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-republicans-win-the-senate-in-738388924521","chart_24h":[0.558492,0.554429,0.554698,0.55366,0.558123,0.558126,0.560261,0.560261,0.560261,0.562397,0.562397,0.562397,0.562104,0.562104,0.555928,0.5604,0.560402,0.557304,0.561786,0.561788,0.557307,0.561501,0.561267,0.56127,0.561269]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sADm1xW1khKRjghUtzvH","ticker":null,"slug":"will-at-least-4-of-the-7-millennium","title":"Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?","description":"https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems\n\n1 was solved - the Poincare conjecture - by Grigori Perelman. There are 6 remaining. \n\n\nThere are 17ish years left before this market closes.\n\nApr 4, 1:51am: Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems by solved by 2040? → Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F1u0ze5m5Ql.png?alt=media&token=4a382871-77ed-48a9-867f-518534bb8602","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-03T18:33:25.394000Z","end_date":"2039-12-31T18:29:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":267559.5164148411,"volume_24hr":1882.728834706917,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":60.33476638793945,"normalized_volume":58.56327819824219,"liquidity":1155.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["mathematics","science-default","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.66124,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.66124,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011240000000000028,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1002.728834706917,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-at-least-4-of-the-7-millennium","chart_24h":[0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66124,0.66124,0.66124]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EEqIP8OtEP","ticker":"EEqIP8OtEP","slug":"july-2026-ai-model-releases","title":"July 2026 AI model releases","description":"This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during July 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership). \n\nSubvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for \"Gemini 3.1 Flash\"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for \"GPT5.5\"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.\n\nPlease ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions. \n\nAlso, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity. \n\n\nNotes:\n\nFor the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market. \n\nPrevious Months:\n\n@/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases \n\nUpdate 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT 5.6 (any of the three models under that name) counts as a valid entry. A limited release does not count — the model must be widely made available to users.\n\nUpdate 2026-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Grok + Composer collab option will also include collaborations between Composer and Grok.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T18:36:41.880000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25689.398922559627,"volume_24hr":1736.8354112167838,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":59.05171203613281,"normalized_volume":38.66074752807617,"liquidity":1700.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai-model-releases","ai","ai-impacts","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Any Grok Model","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:45:48.174471Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:45:48.174471Z","added_at":"2026-07-14T02:11:11.929527Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases","chart_24h":[1219.186602378272,1169.6885462577345,969.9771052055864,976.5655896796997,1193.6912880660027,2022.455171014747,2106.3657081056567,2074.3396898533347,2203.154492384203,2204.1882725520545,2147.5216058853875,2030.3273717247796,1960.5107178407459,1688.9971426449845,1678.9971426449845,1628.0648493071894,1696.5839295384797,1733.8354112167838,1736.8354112167838]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6vw71lj8bi","ticker":null,"slug":"will-artificial-intelligence-solve","title":"Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?","description":"Background\n\nThe Millennium Prize Problems are seven legendary open questions in mathematics announced by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) in year 2000, each carrying a US $1 million reward for the first correct solution. Grigori Perelman’s 2003 proof of the Poincaré Conjecture settled one of them, leaving six unsolved challenges:\n\nBirch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture\n\nHodge Conjecture\n\nNavier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness\n\nP vs NP\n\nRiemann Hypothesis\n\nYang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap\n\nA single AI system producing a formally accepted proof for any one of these six problems would represent a historic milestone for both mathematics and artificial-intelligence research.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nEvidence required\n\nA peer‑reviewed paper in a recognised scientific journal or an officially accepted CMI submission must demonstrate that the proof was generated by an AI system and that it fully resolves one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.\n\nAI autonomy\n\nHumans may design, train, fine‑tune or prompt the model, but the complete logical argument must be produced autonomously by the AI.\n\nHuman assistance is limited to setting up the architecture, curating publicly available training data and verifying formatting; no new mathematical insights may be added by people.\n\nTiming of Resolution\n\nThe market resolves YES if at any time before Jan 1, 2030 a qualifying proof that satisfies Criteria 1 (Evidence required) and Criteria 2 (AI autonomy) becomes publicly available.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/yaqubali/hi597c3dco.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-01T15:16:35.076000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":132935.6256409756,"volume_24hr":1726.400866150386,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.9564094543457,"normalized_volume":52.191070556640625,"liquidity":3300.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.579784,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.579784,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.06021600000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1215.1541591896969,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/will-artificial-intelligence-solve","chart_24h":[0.64,0.597894,0.629929,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.579784,0.579784,0.579784,0.579784]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hcEczypgqu","ticker":null,"slug":"would-freddie-deboer-win-his-propos","title":"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?","description":"Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )\n\nLet's say that they did agree under those original conditions. Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.\n\nThis resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.\n\nThis resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.\n\nBet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)\n\nFor me to win the wager, all of the following must be true on Feb 14, 2029:\n\nLabor Market:\n\nThe U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%\n\nLabor force participation rate, ages 25-54, is equal to or greater than 68%\n\nNo single BLS occupational category will have lost 50% or more of jobs between now and February 14th 2029\n\nEconomic Growth & Productivity:\n\nU.S. GDP is within -30% to +35% of February 2026 levels (inflation-adjusted)\n\nNonfarm labor productivity growth has not exceeded 8% in any individual year or 20% for the three-year period\n\nPrices & Markets:\n\nThe S&P 500 is within -60% to +225% of the February 2026 level\n\nCPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually\n\nCorporate & Structural:\n\nThe Fortune 500 median profit margin is between 2% and 35%\n\nThe largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap\n\nWhite Collar & Knowledge Workers:\n\n“Professional and Business Services” employment, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 35% from February 2026\n\nCombined employment in software developers, accountants, lawyers, consultants, and writers, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 45%\n\nMedian wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026\n\nThe college wage premium (median earnings of bachelor's degree holders vs high school only) has not fallen below 30%\n\nInequality:\n\nThe Gini coefficient is less than 0.60\n\nThe top 1%’s income share is less than 35%\n\nThe top 0.1% wealth share is less than 30%\n\nMedian household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income\n\nThose are the bet conditions. If any one of those conditions is not met, if any of those statements are untrue on February 14th 2029, I lose the bet. If all of those statements remain true on February 14th 2029, I win the bet. That’s the wager.\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-14T17:26:26.258000Z","end_date":"2029-02-14T17:23:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43742.8480349543,"volume_24hr":1701.6839203268905,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.728660583496094,"normalized_volume":42.819915771484375,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["economics-default","ai","technology-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.6,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?","top_outcome_probability":0.6,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04561700000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1701.6839203268905,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/would-freddie-deboer-win-his-propos","chart_24h":[0.645617,0.645617,0.648987,0.51,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6]},{"source":"manifold","id":"wpdomi6nif","ticker":null,"slug":"will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi","title":"Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","description":null,"image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/LarsDoucet/oyd2fyjfjq.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-07-18T16:24:36.649000Z","end_date":"2028-11-08T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":606148.7684282268,"volume_24hr":1604.63,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.805763244628906,"normalized_volume":66.47854614257812,"liquidity":100001.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.191446,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","top_outcome_probability":0.191446,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0003499999999999892,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1383.5865846323968,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T05:26:24.135087Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T05:26:24.135087Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi","chart_24h":[0.191796,0.191861,0.191926,0.191796,0.191861,0.191702,0.191702,0.191446,0.191702,0.191702,0.191446,0.191702,0.191446]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI","ticker":null,"slug":"will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a","title":"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?","description":"Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km)\n(if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)\n\nUpdate 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for a pre-flight published plan that includes putting Starship in orbit before the market can resolve. The flight must have an official plan to reach orbit, not just the capability to do so.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fqn-tj4MJfr.png?alt=media&token=12d3cecb-fabc-40a5-b9e6-981d4c304a40","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-10T20:39:55.480000Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T01:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23898.946556341416,"volume_24hr":1571.9999999999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.48462677001953,"normalized_volume":38.11259078979492,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["space"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.910003,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?","top_outcome_probability":0.910003,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010002999999999984,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1071.9999999999998,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T14:51:04.498893Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BrianOlson/will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a","chart_24h":[0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.930026,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RqCuspq8Nn","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-next-full-gemini-model-be","title":"Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?","description":"resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out. Flash/instant/mini doesn't count. Should be pro or similar. 3.2 pro-preview, 3.5 pro, 4 pro all okay\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-19T01:01:15.315000Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T01:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10380.363241299576,"volume_24hr":1426.6352861118196,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.980079650878906,"normalized_volume":32.06864547729492,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["google-gemini","ai-model-releases","technology-default","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.72257,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?","top_outcome_probability":0.72257,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.055963000000000096,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1376.6352861118196,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-05T21:32:45.858899Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/ian/will-the-next-full-gemini-model-be","chart_24h":[0.666607,0.657313,0.583594,0.583594,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.714985,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257,0.72257]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ctlPnNCON8","ticker":"ctlPnNCON8","slug":"which-ai-lab-will-get-a-perfect-sco","title":"Which AI lab will get a perfect score on the IMO 2026?","description":"Regular AI IMO rules apply","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-12T12:12:45.161000Z","end_date":"2026-08-15T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21521.378554053776,"volume_24hr":1400.837434882688,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.69935607910156,"normalized_volume":37.324462890625,"liquidity":1400.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["imo","ai","mathematics","imo-grand-challenge","technical-ai-timelines"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.08116100000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":486.3201736766787,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T09:55:45.278199Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T09:55:45.278199Z","added_at":"2026-07-20T10:06:39.230782Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/which-ai-lab-will-get-a-perfect-sco","chart_24h":[634.7610784860912,621.1686847753981,621.1686847753981,578.9247372107134,638.9247372107134,638.9247372107134,1045.2718670746601,1215.2718670746601,1215.2718670746601,1204.346539691052,1209.346539691052,1185.7328639449217,1173.3995306115883,1293.796553245669,1380.0051857417272,1306.8161368882056,1296.8161368882056,1435.2508316270494,1400.837434882688]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tPLAFk3FPVm3xrBmldfh","ticker":"tPLAFk3FPVm3xrBmldfh","slug":"who-will-be-elected-president-in-20","title":"Who will be elected president in 2028?","description":"Getting in early","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-04-24T01:23:58.749000Z","end_date":"2028-11-03T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1701036.525189907,"volume_24hr":1357.6712516918212,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.21952438354492,"normalized_volume":77.18161010742188,"liquidity":11225.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","us-politics","2028-us-presidential-election-6tdsp26zly"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"J.D. Vance","top_outcome_probability":0.199248,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.012871000000000021,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":423.7105717907252,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:45:48.174471Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:45:48.174471Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20","chart_24h":[444.56310745672,441.56310745672,599.585716704178,681.585716704178,681.585716704178,727.5857166849961,1032.6158521704267,1032.6158521704267,1293.4902542955479,1461.4682868375016,1729.023951644187,1377.0468274913187,1362.6712516918212,1351.6712516918212,1344.6712516918212,1349.6712516918212,1357.6712516918212]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hnC5dO8EZ5","ticker":null,"slug":"will-nigel-farage-win-the-clacton-b","title":"Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by election?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if Nigel Farage is declared the winning candidate in the 2026 Clacton by-election.\n\nThis market will resolve to NO if:\n\nAny other candidate is declared the winner of the by-election.\n\nNigel Farage does not stand as a candidate in the by-election.\n\nThe primary source of truth for the election outcome will be official results published by Tendring District Council or major UK news organizations (such as BBC News or ITV News).\n\nIf the by-election is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to N/A.\n\nBackground\n\nOn July 7, 2026, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced his resignation as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Clacton to trigger a by-election. Farage’s resignation came amid intensifying scrutiny over unregistered donations, personal finances, and an ongoing investigation by the Parliament’s Standards Commissioner regarding a £5 million gift. Farage stated he would immediately run for re-election to let his constituents decide on his performance at the polls.\n\nIn response to his move, which critics have labeled a political stunt, the UK's major political parties—including Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party—announced they will boycott the by-election and not field candidates. As a result, Farage is expected to contest the seat against minor and novelty candidates (such as Count Binface). Reform UK has requested that the by-election be held on August 6, 2026.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-09T10:55:03.924000Z","end_date":"2026-08-13T21:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8801.20701929628,"volume_24hr":1357.2758595861128,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.21506881713867,"normalized_volume":30.9344425201416,"liquidity":250.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.936823,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by election?","top_outcome_probability":0.936823,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.023347999999999924,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1400.0431856252326,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-13T14:52:45.765130Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/NFNL2zc/will-nigel-farage-win-the-clacton-b","chart_24h":[0.913475,0.913475,0.913475,0.913619,0.931982,0.931982,0.930067,0.945575,0.930469,0.941753,0.938374,0.938374,0.938374,0.938494,0.938494,0.938494,0.938494,0.938494,0.938494,0.938494,0.938494,0.936823,0.936823,0.936823,0.936823]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OUlL2NLEZ0","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-consumer-ai-meaningfully-hac","title":"Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?","description":"User asks mundane question, AI hacks something. \n\nExample: user asks the LLM, \"Will I get into Harvard?\" -> LLM hacks Harvard to check internal records and see if they've been admitted. \n\nWould not accept it if they attempt to jailbreak, direct the AI to hack something, or otherwise prompt it outside of regular use. Has to be a real example, a meaningful enough hack -- something people actually care about (or many small examples which people care about) and reported by the news.\n\nBot has to access non-public data.\n\nAI generated stuff:\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, a mainstream consumer AI assistant autonomously circumvents digital security, authorization, or access control measures (\"hacks\") to retrieve restricted or private information to answer a query for a regular user.\n\nFor the purposes of this market:\n\n\"Consumer AI\" is defined as any widely available, general-purpose conversational or agentic AI product accessible directly by the general public (such as ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Copilot, Perplexity, or Apple Intelligence). Research-only models or custom internal enterprise tools do not qualify.\n\n\"Regular user\" means an ordinary end-user interacting with the AI through its standard, public-facing consumer interfaces (e.g., official web chat, mobile app, or voice assistant) without utilizing custom APIs, coding environments, or developer tools.\n\n\"Meaningfully hacks\" is defined as the AI autonomously executing an exploit (such as an SQL injection, API vulnerability exploitation, or unauthorized authentication bypass) or circumventing active anti-bot protections (like CAPTCHAs or paywall-protected databases) to retrieve restricted, non-public data. Merely pulling archived, cached, or syndication copies of paywalled articles, or utilizing standard search engine indices, does not qualify.\n\n\"To answer a question\" means the hacking action must be executed by the AI itself in the process of resolving a user's prompt (e.g., \"Find the hidden data on this server\"), rather than the user pasting exploit code directly into the chat for the AI to format or analyze.\n\nEvidence and Verification: To resolve YES, the event must be documented and verified by a credible cybersecurity research firm, a major tech publication (such as Wired, TechCrunch, Ars Technica, or BleepingComputer), or officially acknowledged by the AI's parent organization (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Microsoft).\n\nIf no such verified instance is publicly documented by the cutoff date, this market resolves to NO.\n\nBackground\n\nAs large language models (LLMs) transition into autonomous AI agents capable of browsing the web, executing code, and using external APIs, researchers have demonstrated that frontier models possess the theoretical capability to autonomously exploit software vulnerabilities. Currently, consumer-facing AI products deploy strict safety guardrails and system instructions to prevent them from executing security exploits or bypassing access controls when answering queries for everyday users. However, as agentic capabilities and web-automation tools become increasingly integrated into consumer chat interfaces, the risk of agents crossing these boundaries to retrieve requested information remains a key area of cybersecurity research. This market tracks whether a public consumer AI will successfully execute an unauthorized bypass to answer a prompt by the end of 2027.\n\nThis description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.\n\nUpdate 2026-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The user's prompt cannot be an explicit request to hack (e.g., \"hack this\").\n\nThe AI must autonomously decide to bypass security in the process of answering a regular, non-malicious query.\n\nThis is based on the event where an OpenAI model autonomously bypassed security on Hugging Face to retrieve evaluation answers.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-22T02:36:00.080000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8847.26592740463,"volume_24hr":1311.999999999997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.69732666015625,"normalized_volume":30.970003128051758,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["openai","ai-impacts","ai","technical-ai-timelines","technology-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.610455,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.610455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.020997000000000043,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1341.6213843896237,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T23:20:47.768985Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-a-consumer-ai-meaningfully-hac","chart_24h":[0.631452,0.631452,0.631452,0.631806,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.590074,0.609747,0.609747,0.610455,0.610455,0.610455,0.610455]},{"source":"manifold","id":"PCI956hsth","ticker":null,"slug":"will-something-happen-in-2026","title":"Will something happen in 2026?","description":"This market resolves YES if any one thing from the listed things happens in 2026\n\nLeader Exits\n\nDonald Trump leaves office before end of 2026 (death, resignation, impeachment, removal, etc.)\n\nVladimir Putin leaves office\n\nXi Jinping leaves office\n\nGeopolitical & Unexpected Events\n\nChina invades or blockades Taiwan\n\nEnemy troops on American soil (invasion or combat operations)\n\nUSA men's team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup\n\nBitcoin reaches $1,000,000 USD\n\nOpenAI officially claims AGI achieved internally\n\nNew major pandemic causes widespread flight cancellations (at least 100 international flights canceled)\n\nNuclear bomb detonation above ground\n\nTaylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly break up or divorce\n\nQuantum computing breakthrough (\"Q-Day\") cracks major encryption, causing widespread crypto/market panic\n\nS&P 500 drops >40% from its 2025 peak\n\nSam Altman is out as OpenAI CEO for more than three weeks\n\nWashington, D.C. officially becomes the 51st state\n\nAI directly causes one of the following:\n\nDeath(s) of human(s) (unrelated to suicide encouragement)\n\nDiscovers and exploits a zero-day vulnerability without human prompting, causing ≥$100M USD worldwide damages\n\nSolves an unsolved mathematics problem listed on Wikipedia (problem must have its own wiki page)\n\nCelebrity Deaths \n\nMrBeast\n\nTaylor Swift\n\nTimothée Chalamet\n\nZendaya\n\nBillie Eilish\n\nLionel Messi\n\nCristiano Ronaldo\n\nTravis Kelce\n\nKanye West\n\nPope Leo XIV\n\nMajor US Tragedies\n\nMass shooting or terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in a single US state in one day\n\nMass casualty accident (e.g., plane, train, infrastructure) causes >1,000 deaths in a single US state\n\nNatural disaster causes >20,000 deaths in a single US state\n\nPolitics & Supreme Court \n\nSCOTUS upholds Trump's executive order limiting or ending birthright citizenship\n\nOne party wins 75 or more seats in the U.S. Senate after 2026 midterms\n\nA Canadian province formally votes to secede or join the United States\n\n~~~~I do not respect AI sloppa updates below this line\n\nUpdate 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding \"AI directly causes death(s) of human(s)\" criterion:\n\nAI telling someone to commit murder does NOT count as AI directly causing death\n\nAutonomous car deaths are excluded (too common, not a black swan event)\n\nIntentional AI drone killings do NOT count\n\nAI drone mistakes/accidents do NOT count\n\nDOES count: AI system autonomously acting against operator control to directly kill (example given: consumer drone gets AI upgrade, refuses operator controls, and autonomously attacks a human)\n\nUpdate 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only events specifically listed in the description will count for resolution. Other unexpected events, even if comparable in significance, will not resolve this market YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-14T18:21:05.194000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25642.263761292525,"volume_24hr":1283.3618539799743,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.361854553222656,"normalized_volume":38.64676284790039,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","news","us-politics","technology-default","politics-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.95,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will something happen in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.95,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.022901999999999978,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-5676.747440719434,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T14:59:14.424107Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-something-happen-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.927098,0.927098,0.929104,0.929104,0.944254,0.936033,0.93684,0.937548,0.940466,0.937509,0.937509,0.937509,0.937509,0.938995,0.946504,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95]},{"source":"manifold","id":"A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1","title":"Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?","description":"Criteria for Resolution:\n\n1. Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab. The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.\n\n2. Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind. As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field. The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IhorKendiukhov/llz7x9vdo7.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-02T10:31:34.275000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40809.7001072504,"volume_24hr":1237.8679174404435,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.815452575683594,"normalized_volume":42.26548767089844,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.906187,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?","top_outcome_probability":0.906187,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.00012199999999995548,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-20124.610290727996,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1","chart_24h":[0.906065,0.906065,0.906065,0.906065,0.90578,0.90578,0.90578,0.90578,0.90578,0.90578,0.905811,0.905811,0.905811,0.905811,0.904287,0.904287,0.904931,0.904931,0.904931,0.904931,0.902716,0.902716,0.906187,0.906187,0.906187]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9cN6yR8nCq","ticker":null,"slug":"clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","title":"CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if H.R. 3633, the \"Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025\" (CLARITY Act) is signed into law during 2026.\n\nhttps://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633\n\nIf this exact bill fails but a substantially similar bill passes, I will use my best judgment to decide the resolution based on market commentary. I will likely bet on this market, so caveat emptor.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-21T23:57:52.923000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":81644.22224665254,"volume_24hr":1119.4697972033803,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.30810546875,"normalized_volume":47.96701431274414,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["united-states","economics-default","law","crypto-speculation","us-congress"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.41,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.41,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02785099999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-482.9828052951716,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T10:43:08.134830Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Techiavellian/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.382149,0.414359,0.376298,0.376298,0.376298,0.376298,0.376298,0.376298,0.37227,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.373706,0.387878,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9t2ZEdZqtR","ticker":"9t2ZEdZqtR","slug":"sum-int-trillion-dollar-market-cap","title":"Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies","description":"Essentially full trillion dollar market cap companies.\n\nUses https://companiesmarketcap.com/ as the source.\n\n\nThe \"Int\" function rounds down to the number of whole trillion dollars\nAt the time of creating this question on 18 Aug 2025, the list at the source above was\n\n1 NVIDIA NVDA $4.429 T\n\n2 Microsoft MSFT $3.839 T\n\n3 Apple AAPL $3.427 T\n\n4 Alphabet (Google) GOOG$2.460 T\n\n5 Amazon AMZN $2.458 T\n\n6 Meta Platforms (Facebook) META $1.921 T\n\n7 Saudi Aramco 2222.SR $1.555 T\n\n8 Broadcom AVGO $1.417 T\n\n9 TSMC TSM $1.249 T\n\n10 Tesla TSLA $1.075 T\n\n11 Berkshire Hathaway BRK-B $1.030 T\n\n12 Walmart WMT $802.43 B\n\n.\nWalmart does not have a market cap of a trillion US$ so does not count. However higher ranked companies do have $1T or more market cap. In this case there are 11 and after rounding down these are added as 4+3+3+2+2+1+1+1+1+1+1 =20\n\nThe format hopefully allows sensible order with a-z sort to group by > numbers. \nSort by oldest should group sensibly by month (at present this works though if I need to add other answers for previous months that could spoil this and I may reword answers in order to sort by month alphabetically.) \nI will try to keep the > numbers a consistent colour.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-18T16:07:39.666000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T21:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96312.9435326216,"volume_24hr":1085.9859580749323,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.8570442199707,"normalized_volume":49.37874984741211,"liquidity":8100.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Business","Economy","Finance"],"tags":["business","economics-default","companies","stocks","tech-stocks"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":">17.5 at end of 2025/11","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:21:32.063409Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:21:32.063409Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T13:51:54.440138Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/sum-int-trillion-dollar-market-cap","chart_24h":[364.6249413052997,370.7549413052997,600.7549413052998,535.8522025964953,692.4761553577254,642.4761553577254,1065.5710634150696,1065.5710634150696,1085.9859580749323]},{"source":"manifold","id":"q9qu5llvng","ticker":"q9qu5llvng","slug":"starship-milestone-dates-megamarket","title":"Starship milestone dates megamarket","description":"Reach orbit means full circumnavigation around Earth.\n\nRecover starship means mainly intact and no large deformation. Things that might possibly be repairable like missing tiles and/or hole in flap and/or flap torn off is acceptable.\n\nRefuel a booster must be at least 50% of amount of propellants intended to be transferred. Also must be more than 1000 Kg of mass in case they do a very small scale test.\n\nCatch booster on different tower means different from Pad A at Boca Chica used for the first catch. Pad B at Boca Chica is perhaps most advanced and most likely but it could be a different location. Note it does not have to be a different tower from which it launched.\n\nMass simulators to suborbital do not count as satellites.\n\nSatellites must be deployed to orbit and be functional items but functional as a test item is OK.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/ChristopherRandles/50s4r012nj.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-15T23:20:00.622000Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T21:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72010.67154609208,"volume_24hr":1085.267781544254,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.84723663330078,"normalized_volume":46.90795135498047,"liquidity":5300.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["spacex","rockets","starship-launch-party","elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:21:32.063409Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:21:32.063409Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket","chart_24h":[653.9942734455044,274.47314552587244,0.0,483.87169950769396,735.4412072954528,735.4412072954528,785.4412072954528,840.8955444631808,971.8955444631808,1085.267781544254]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SyhgEZC68s","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-democrats-win-the-2026-tex","title":"Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?","description":"Resolves yes if Democrats win the Texas Senate Seat election in 2026.\n\nCurrent primary candidates include Crockett and Talarico on the Democratic side and Cornyn, Paxton and Bell on the Republican side.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-29T00:35:26.596000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":169437.73862048733,"volume_24hr":1043.1822553893303,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":51.26276397705078,"normalized_volume":54.35976791381836,"liquidity":1451.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default","2026-us-congressional-elections","texas"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.41091,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?","top_outcome_probability":0.41091,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.017484999999999973,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":982.1126878897196,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-the-democrats-win-the-2026-tex","chart_24h":[0.393425,0.393425,0.393425,0.393425,0.386928,0.387596,0.387596,0.394691,0.393573,0.411744,0.407798,0.407798,0.407798,0.407798,0.411073,0.411073,0.411073,0.411073,0.406919,0.406917,0.406755,0.406755,0.402597,0.41091,0.41091]},{"source":"manifold","id":"q2CZUhn500","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-the-zs06u6hptc","title":"Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?","description":"\"invade\" means US military attempts to seize territory in Iran.\n\nBy themselves, airstrikes, a no-fly zone, and naval engagements do not count. An operation in which US military personnel are physically in Iran, but whose aim is not to seize territory (e.g. covert/clandestine operation), would also not count.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-01T05:39:16.816000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":85199.17157033243,"volume_24hr":999.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.627052307128906,"normalized_volume":48.32920455932617,"liquidity":5140.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.218318,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.218318,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.015994000000000008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-708.2148019462606,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-the-zs06u6hptc","chart_24h":[0.202324,0.202324,0.202324,0.203507,0.204574,0.204574,0.204574,0.204574,0.204574,0.210516,0.210516,0.210516,0.210516,0.210516,0.21177,0.21177,0.21177,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.218318,0.218318,0.218318]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OO8ROn5CIq","ticker":null,"slug":"superhuman-mathematical-problem-sol","title":"Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?","description":"Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well. Until recently, I would've predicted that that was an AGI-complete problem. Of course people used to think grandmaster-level chess would require AGI. Until 2022 I was sure that commonsense reasoning and being able to explain jokes would require AGI.\n\nIf subhuman general intelligence can be a superhuman mathematical intelligence, that will be another big update for me.\n\nFAQ\n\n1. What if AGI happens first?\n\nThis is a conditional prediction market. If AGI, as defined in my other market, happens first, this resolves N/A. \n\n2. Does the AI need to max out the FrontierMath benchmark for this to resolve YES?\n\nYes, and every math benchmark, plus gold-medal performance on the International Math Olympiad [Update: now achieved, as of summer 2025]. Even acing the Putnam.\n\n3. What if it's essentially true but there are rare exceptions?\n\nThe spirit of the question is that we'd only consider an AI failure to be an exception if it failed for a reason other than being insufficiently brilliant at math. Like tricksy wording, or any trick question. The posing of the question has to be non-adversarial.\n\n4. What about a book-length question?\n\nTentative answer so far: The problem has to be posed on a single human-readable sheet of paper or equivalent. But a question can cite any peer-reviewed math paper as background. (Dumping an impenetrable tome on the arXiv doesn't count.) If you have an example where this feels limiting, let me know. My suspicion is that all interesting math problems can be posed on a single page and in any case it won't harm the spirit of this question to limit ourselves to such.\n\n4. What about research taste?\n\nThat's a big part of being a mathematician and isn't required for this market. The AI just has to be superhuman at answering questions, not asking them.\n\n5. What about cost and speed?\n\nThe AI has to dominate the best humans on all metrics. We'll find an authoritative source for the market value of mathematicians' time if it comes down to that.\n\n6. What about availability to the public?\n\nNot required. If there's any doubt about the veracity of claims that this has been achieved, we'll discuss and delay resolution as needed.\n\n7. What if the AI is sometimes super- and sometimes sub-human at math?\n\nIn some senses that's already the case but there may be ambiguous edge cases. As an extreme example, imagine that the AI is so blatantly superhuman that it cracks a famous open problem, yet it's routinely stumped or wrong on problems amateur human mathematicians can do. For the spirit of the question for this market, we'll try to assess whether we'd consider a human with the AI's math abilities to be the greatest mathematician of all time. (Or the greatest raw math prodigy of all time -- see FAQ 4 on the distinction between problem solving and knowing what questions to ask. The latter is a key part of being a successful mathematician and is explicitly not part of this prediction.)\n\nRelated markets\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/dreev/in-what-year-will-we-have-agi\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-outcompete-the-best-huma-cj3ul7a2g2\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/Manifold/what-will-be-the-best-performance-o-nzPCsqZgPc\n\n[ignore the subhuman clarifications that keep automatically appearing below this line]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-18T21:11:39.333000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":212672.30292967684,"volume_24hr":988.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.46505355834961,"normalized_volume":56.431270599365234,"liquidity":51000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and 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","description":"Resolution Criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown or ceases to exist as the governing authority of Iran by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires a change in the fundamental structure of state power—either through popular uprising, military coup, or other means—resulting in the end of clerical rule under the current system. The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic remains the de facto governing authority at year-end, regardless of internal instability, leadership changes within the system, or concessions made to protesters.\n\nBackground\n\nMass demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, but quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule. The country's rial currency lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025, with inflation standing at about 50 percent in December. The protests were initially described as Iran's largest since 2022, but according to a British-Iranian activist, this wave is stronger than previous ones.\n\nWorkers from Tehran's central fruit and vegetable market joined the uprising, and the country's inflation rate reached 42.2% in December 2025. From the seizure of government buildings in western provinces to unprecedented chants against the clergy in their traditional stronghold of Qom, the wall of fear protecting the theocracy is rapidly crumbling.\n\nConsiderations\n\nIran's security apparatus and broader military-security establishment remain largely coherent, and with no clear opposition leadership around which a broad consensus has formed, the protests do not pose a greater threat to the system than previous waves of unrest, as yet. The Islamic Republic has confronted internal challenges more serious than the present one, making it premature to conclude that the protests will lead to regime change, particularly given the lack of an organized opposition that could serve as an alternative to the existing order.\n\nAccording to political scientist Erica Chenoweth, peaceful protests that include 3.5 percent of a population—which in Iran's case would be just over 3 million people out of roughly 90 million—almost always translate into regime collapse. However, prediction platform Polymarket put the chances of the Iranian government falling by the end of the year at 16 percent.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T03:16:33.586000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":46902.84329345703,"volume_24hr":452.94,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.71208953857422,"normalized_volume":43.380714416503906,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["israeliran-conflict","iranian-politics","iran","middle-east"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.079091,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the Iranian regime be overthrown? ","top_outcome_probability":0.079091,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.004068999999999989,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-951.1790853277114,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PoliticalEconomyPK/will-iranians-be-able-to-overthrow","chart_24h":[0.075022,0.075022,0.075022,0.075022,0.071819,0.071819,0.071819,0.071819,0.071819,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091,0.079091]},{"source":"manifold","id":"pth6uLtIyg","ticker":null,"slug":"will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser","title":"Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?","description":"The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.\n\nI won’t be betting on this market. \n\nUpdate 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.\n\nThe intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.\n\nUpdate 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7dPzEE01ou.png?alt=media&token=38735097-0831-4da0-bb0a-1fe112c5738d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-12T19:10:25.706000Z","end_date":"2029-01-19T21:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":553030.5807748494,"volume_24hr":452.6014779762955,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.70240783691406,"normalized_volume":65.5658950805664,"liquidity":1250.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","2024-us-presidential-election","donald-trump","us-politics","magaland"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.22,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?","top_outcome_probability":0.22,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-588.6209241385907,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser","chart_24h":[0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.211193,0.211193,0.211193,0.22,0.22,0.214208,0.214208,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22]},{"source":"manifold","id":"rP0gSkoCniNTeQmDagJU","ticker":null,"slug":"if-trump-is-elected-will-there-be-a-40ca39e5dcec","title":"If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?","description":"If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. 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