{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events?source=manifold","as_of":"2026-10-23T13:12:41.187310Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"},"items":[{"source":"manifold","id":"CL56c9sqQp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-another-millennium-prize-probl","title":"Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if, between September 9, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a proposed solution for at least one of the remaining five Millennium Prize Problems is formally announced or published.\n\nThe five eligible problems for this market are:\n\nP versus NP\n\nThe Riemann Hypothesis\n\nYang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap\n\nThe Hodge Conjecture\n\nThe Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture\n\nFor the purposes of this market's resolution:\n\nNavier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness is excluded from resolving this market to YES. OpenAI announced a proposed solution to Navier–Stokes on September 8, 2026. This market specifically tracks whether another (i.e., a third) Millennium Prize Problem will have a solution claimed or published in 2026.\n\nPoincaré Conjecture is excluded as it was solved prior to 2026.\n\nThe proposed solution must be put forward by a recognized mathematician, a reputable academic institution, or a major AI/technology research organization (such as OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, etc.).\n\nThe announcement must be accompanied by a published paper, a public preprint (such as on arXiv), or a formalized computer-verified proof (such as in Lean or Coq).\n\nThe solution does not need to be officially verified or awarded by the Clay Mathematics Institute by the end of 2026 (as CMI rules require a two-year waiting period after publication). However, the solution must not be widely debunked or retracted by the mathematical community before December 31, 2026.\n\nIf no other eligible Millennium Prize Problem has a proposed solution announced by the end of 2026, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nBackground\n\nThe Millennium Prize Problems are seven mathematical puzzles selected by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000, each carrying a $1 million prize for a correct solution. For over two decades, the Poincaré Conjecture (solved by Grigori Perelman in 2002–2003) was the only solved problem.\n\nOn September 8, 2026, OpenAI published a paper claiming that an unreleased internal AI system had solved the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem by proving that the equations can develop a singularity in finite time. This market is designed to predict if the rapid acceleration of AI capabilities or human mathematical breakthroughs will result in yet another of the remaining five unsolved classic problems being solved before the end of 2026.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a proposed solution is neither widely debunked nor widely accepted (remains controversial) by December 31, 2026:\n\nThe creator will delay resolution for 2 to 3 months after the market closes.\n\nIf the proof remains controversial after this period, the creator is leaning toward resolving the market to NO or N/A (rather than YES), and will consult with moderators and mathematicians to make a final decision.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The controversy clause applies strictly to the mathematical validity of the proof itself (e.g., disputed proofs like the ABC conjecture), not to public relations or circumstances surrounding the announcement.\n\nAn announcement similar to the Navier-Stokes release will resolve to YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-08T22:46:34.870000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":620921.0342491217,"volume_24hr":21489.157050424263,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":65.45391082763672,"liquidity":5210.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["mathematics","millenium-prize-problems","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.31,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.31,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20536.157050424263,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":"2026-09-10T09:23:18.295652Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/HumanClanker/will-another-millennium-prize-probl","chart_24h":[0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.324835,0.324835,0.324835,0.324835,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.335162,0.335162,0.335162,0.332581,0.332581,0.332581,0.332581,0.332581,0.332581,0.42,0.415652,0.37,0.314873,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lQZdyZCLZZ","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-worst-day-in-cyber-securit","title":"Will the worst day in cyber security in 2026 be after 10/21/2026?","description":"Resolves to YES if the worst day of the year 2026 in cyber security is 10/22 or later.\n\nResolves to NO if that date is already in the past when this market was created.\n\nIf the answer is not obvious, I will accept the judgment of Opus 5.5 based on this exact wording.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-22T12:02:20.654000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16071.730133776877,"volume_24hr":19962.927972901674,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":98.58528900146484,"normalized_volume":34.50484085083008,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.51989,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the worst day in cyber security in 2026 be after 10/21/2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.51989,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.053590000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":8329.423935562154,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":"2026-10-22T18:14:32.627491Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-worst-day-in-cyber-securit","chart_24h":[0.57348,0.560357,0.549678,0.562742,0.562742,0.54,0.597533,0.651277,0.56,0.69,0.680248,0.619918,0.610848,0.6,0.59,0.54777,0.549508,0.54,0.562317,0.564345,0.59,0.582716,0.566882,0.566882,0.51989]},{"source":"manifold","id":"BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y","ticker":null,"slug":"will-republicans-win-the-senate-in-738388924521","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?","description":"Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.\n\nIf a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fk28kghBTxb.png?alt=media&token=5edacbb5-bb31-463a-b877-0d281bc544f4","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-08T18:07:28.467000Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":319103.6586279221,"volume_24hr":14094.36297358226,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":91.77584075927734,"normalized_volume":59.083919525146484,"liquidity":20005.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.32,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?","top_outcome_probability":0.32,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.014502000000000015,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":8682.793563917123,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-republicans-win-the-senate-in-738388924521","chart_24h":[0.334502,0.345023,0.345493,0.345493,0.345493,0.343498,0.325504,0.322526,0.316552,0.312439,0.311762,0.311762,0.310766,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.313507,0.32,0.318507,0.318507,0.317764,0.317764,0.302676,0.302676,0.31,0.31,0.308566,0.31,0.31795,0.319542,0.319393,0.32]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lRZgqlQttA","ticker":null,"slug":"california-voter-id-ballot-proposit","title":"California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?","description":"If approved, the amendment would make California the 37th U.S. state to require voter ID during elections\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_voter_ID_initiative#\n\nResolves yes if California passes this additional voter identification proposition that will appear on the ballot on Nov 3 2026.  Resolves n/a if for whatever reason it doesn’t appear. This is very unlikely as it says it will appear unless withdrawn by proponents.\n\n[image]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-24T20:29:42.347000Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":49158.97435706374,"volume_24hr":11110.784367667438,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":87.26314544677734,"normalized_volume":42.93061447143555,"liquidity":1150.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["california-politics","california","us-politics","us-democracy","donald-trump"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.161046,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?","top_outcome_probability":0.161046,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.028954000000000008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":11019.731845001501,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/california-voter-id-ballot-proposit","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.143574,0.16,0.16,0.16136,0.16136,0.16136,0.16136,0.16136,0.16,0.161176,0.161176,0.161176,0.161176,0.161176,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046,0.161046]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sqUzOZN8Cs","ticker":"sqUzOZN8Cs","slug":"will-a-democrat-win-these-us-house","title":"Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?","description":"Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.\n\nWhether a candidate is \"a Democrat\" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Robincvgr/gncLuugsPI.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-02-08T02:10:39.422000Z","end_date":"2026-12-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":243822.20922319478,"volume_24hr":10492.097866881428,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":86.19317626953125,"normalized_volume":56.60164260864258,"liquidity":50000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["2026-us-election","2026-midterms","us-politics","politics-default","2026-us-congressional-elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"California 9","top_outcome_probability":0.979593,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-928.8100000000022,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:07:54.775635Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:07:54.775635Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T16:17:37.871704Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-a-democrat-win-these-us-house","chart_24h":[46362.096052260946,45815.01891997367,45823.567602096045,45775.07095516923,45790.82195818827,45954.48674836004,57763.11351925588,29647.596856042397,32648.32270147551,33426.58969714115,32965.23364042098,31865.64348613712,31441.871928679695,31339.030961326698,31458.13670066231,31800.98548314997,32028.594894649505,32021.538941625644,31778.379290283578,31821.059230601033,31614.348022831524,28175.95912939699,27670.545805569756,27234.850805904607,25816.84426868405,25763.83160003968,11314.217102656652,10963.027438180558,10967.817438180558,10895.551704510082,10799.702240133764,10492.097866881428]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9nsyLEANnz","ticker":null,"slug":"will-california-billionaires-have-t","title":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","description":"The \"2026 Billionaire Tax Act\" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth. \n\nhttps://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/\n\nWill a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.\n\nUpdate 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026. The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances. If elections were cancelled or similar extraordinary events occurred, the market would resolve NO. The market resolves YES only if the ballot measure gets on a ballot and passes, NO in all other cases.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-25T19:38:59.905000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":302668.2090082918,"volume_24hr":9156.28305805401,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":83.67646026611328,"normalized_volume":58.591896057128906,"liquidity":1100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.26,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","top_outcome_probability":0.26,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.022583999999999993,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":9054.07590298195,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-california-billionaires-have-t","chart_24h":[0.282584,0.282584,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.261654,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26]},{"source":"manifold","id":"a86n8pc6e3","ticker":null,"slug":"will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-the-next-go","title":"Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-16T15:06:17.331000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":69174.98883741416,"volume_24hr":8528.242922993979,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":82.37811279296875,"normalized_volume":45.68837356567383,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?","top_outcome_probability":0.19,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.011685000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":160.40741523598263,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-the-next-go","chart_24h":[0.201685,0.21,0.21,0.190635,0.2,0.195405,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.135827,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.171145,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17327,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.177265,0.16,0.18,0.169551,0.18,0.19]},{"source":"manifold","id":"PlRCt0hEEl","ticker":"PlRCt0hEEl","slug":"how-many-seats-will-the-democrats-h","title":"How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?","description":"I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027. If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution. Independents will count towards the party they caucus with. Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-02T00:16:44.004000Z","end_date":"2027-01-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":95121.03710629477,"volume_24hr":7069.419955179757,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":78.99903869628906,"normalized_volume":48.33723831176758,"liquidity":13000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":["politics-default","elections","us-politics","2026-midterms","2026-us-congressional-elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"52","top_outcome_probability":0.218281,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0017240000000000033,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-401.55886092657556,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T09:42:37.884018Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T09:42:37.884018Z","added_at":"2026-09-24T17:58:06.582334Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/how-many-seats-will-the-democrats-h","chart_24h":[19688.064434171763,19626.46783354,24834.63109525687,24714.057380300274,19407.981555973387,18966.45542775682,14679.057759309026,13022.726209218767,7109.576142484699,6522.814476624852,6222.231874077922,7249.778742013481,7075.419955179757,7070.419955179757,7069.419955179757]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OZv5O8iPqPQhdavqQOSQ","ticker":"OZv5O8iPqPQhdavqQOSQ","slug":"texas-governors-race-which-party-wi","title":"Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.\n\nIn the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.\n\nIf a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-10T17:56:00.458000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":54746.35821507791,"volume_24hr":7011.582416454834,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":78.85269165039062,"normalized_volume":43.79047775268555,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["texas","politics-default","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Republican Party","top_outcome_probability":0.71,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.06999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1871.2763978709118,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:08:59.740155Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:08:59.740155Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T04:24:11.014060Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/texas-governors-race-which-party-wi","chart_24h":[605.840590995738,3828.7860892320655,3800.2131980638915,3692.4271045954965,6019.988238345825,6005.466755699529,5944.729919930097,5870.342428209037,6200.548532791918,6274.748203671686,6274.748203671686,6591.364847313904,6576.434587960285,6566.434587960285,6741.14909003281,6667.173326737718,6652.076755049473,7070.325222228507,6990.325222228507,6991.855222228508,6996.29595507837,6992.975916971334,6945.1552554608625,7011.582416454834]},{"source":"manifold","id":"A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","title":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","description":"EG \"make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover\". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. 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A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nBackground\n\nHantaviruses are a family of viruses spread mainly by rodents. In humans, they can cause Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). While Hantaviruses can cause severe, life-threatening disease, transmission is typically through contact with infected rodent excreta, not via human-to-human transmission. 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Blonde highlights only count for a YES resolution if the hair is primarily blonde.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Acting or interim press secretaries count.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-16T19:51:24.484000Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17155.79878631789,"volume_24hr":4297.019423712558,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":70.37533569335938,"normalized_volume":34.971492767333984,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.4,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the next White House Press Secretary after Katie Zachariah be a blonde woman?","top_outcome_probability":0.4,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.15852,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-358.66698068599635,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":"2026-10-20T00:47:16.746706Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-the-next-white-house-press-sec","chart_24h":[0.55852,0.5288,0.518379,0.523203,0.510544,0.513269,0.516215,0.516215,0.516215,0.51564,0.514492,0.514492,0.462429,0.462429,0.462429,0.499513,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.320426,0.311266,0.34,0.390941,0.4,0.4,0.4]},{"source":"manifold","id":"l9lRst5288","ticker":"l9lRst5288","slug":"claude-fable-52-anthropic-release-d","title":"Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date","description":"The '+' means any version at or above 5.2 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.2 and releases Claude Fable 5.3 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.2, will also count.\n\nThe model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.\n\nSee also:\n\n@8AyI5Np5yl \n\n@OchSUnInIq \n\n@cgl2IP0yIC \n\n@LU5RqqqEuA \n\n@2OzL6Q56y8 \n\n@IZO2UZgUNO \n\n@2CqdhIO9cU \n\n@AnL9Aqgzc5 \n\n@N0qR0nZl8O \n\n@AzzEpzA8ys \n\n@ntStglnQz0 \n\n@SCnZAUUzEP \n\n@y5CU6hUn6s \n\n@qyC5ychznC \n\n@RlI6hyuNpU \n\n@2Rh2t5hALp \n\n@NONz6Ntycp \n\n@l9lRst5288 (this market)\n\n@ORA9UAlgdI \n\n@pNElq2SnCU \n\n@QL5hAdgQld \n\n@c5QycNqzUU \n\n@zNZZtUPO8d ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-05T16:27:35.969000Z","end_date":"2027-02-16T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22175.86884649842,"volume_24hr":3663.0477550729156,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":67.71601867675781,"normalized_volume":36.836849212646484,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","anthropic","claude","ai-model-releases","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2027-02-16","top_outcome_probability":0.979564,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:08:59.740155Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:08:59.740155Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T18:32:51.482662Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/claude-fable-52-anthropic-release-d","chart_24h":[198.17950356105928,264.77016715700375,261.69041801552345,262.20236772997356,295.67314241453647,293.13326419047553,293.13326419047553,319.0533136391853,314.42738411191556,332.8671727174692,329.7627620929038,326.62869510669805,316.51303532101815,320.4869486168625,320.4869486168625,2505.673558875065,3566.505342353381,3570.505342353381,3572.8240231524933,3580.1646145289865,3649.365758658704,3652.30945409922,3665.806222696503,3701.440441897061,3698.287445497291,3703.610564074669,3687.81469973796,3686.1027806961024,3677.1685371316426,3663.0477550729156]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sf9wxu6w5b","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ww3-happen-before-gta6","title":"Will WW3 happen before GTA6?","description":"Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.\n\nThe prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.\n\nEdit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024\nEdit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025\nEdit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025\n\nEdit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025\nEdit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025\nEdit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025\nEdit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict. In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.\n\nDiplomatic Misunderstandings Leading to Small-Scale Conflicts: A breakdown in diplomacy could spark numerous localized conflicts around the world. If these conflicts become widespread enough, they could collectively be considered a \"world at war,\" even if individually they are short-lived (likely lasting no more than a few weeks).\n\nUpdate 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fully Mechanized Armies Clarification:\n\nThe mere development of fully mechanized military forces (such as AI-driven drones and autonomous weapons systems) is sufficient for this criterion, even if these forces are not actually deployed. \n\n(\n\nOP: This is not the case as specified in another post, the AI wrongly assumed my intentions. Here the relevant comment\n```\n\nHaving the mechanized/autonomous armies clause simply means that armies made of humans and armies made entirely by autonomous/mechanized units are considered alike to the resolution of this question. This avoids the \"no human, no war\" exploit to this question.\n\n```\n\n\nSo the decisive factor remains the use of violence aimed at claiming land, whether by humans or machines. In that sense, it's a functional definition of war that applies equally to both.\n\n)\n\nThis distinguishes the resolution criteria from scenarios (like a cold war) where deployment might be a factor. \n\n\nUpdate 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Leaks or unauthorized copies do not count as a release. 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It was not. A few months later, I thought GPT-5-Thinking might've gotten there. Still not. So now it's been more than another year and maybe Claude Opus 5.5 is there?\n\nTo resolve YES, that it still makes egregious errors, we need, by market close [UPDATE: By the deadline listed below], just one example I can replicate [in a Temporary Chat] (no access to my chat history) with effort set to max. We won't worry about \"average teenagers\". If the answer is clear to us and Claude gets it wrong at least half the time, this market resolves YES.\n\nAs always, ask clarifying questions before betting too hard. We'll discuss in the comments and aim for the spirit of the question, namely, thinking of this as a capabilities milestone and seeing how correct Gary Marcus was in his LLM skepticism. We'll generally but not necessarily follow precedents from the previous two incarnations of this market for o3 and GPT-5.\n\nFAQ\n\n1. Are images allowed this time?\n\nYes, with one concession for how much harder that is for an LLM. Normally it's not allowed to nudge the AI, but for visual questions we'll add \"write code as needed to verify your answer\".\n\n2. What if it can't do that in a Temporary Chat?\n\nThen we'll test another way. I've got Claude building an elaborate harness but anyone with a Claude Max plan should be able to replicate any question failure in a normal Claude session if they have no conversation history about that specific question and Claude doesn't otherwise cheat.\n\n3. What if \"write code as needed\" makes it perform worse?\n\nWe'll take the best of both. Reasoning: First, that may help make up for the advantage that YES bettors got from extending the deadline on this market. Also it feels within the spirit of the question -- what AI is capable of. Finally, we weren't even sure at first that images should be allowed (they weren't in past versions of this market) so giving the AI any advantages we can on the image questions feels closer to a good compromise.\n\n4. What's the deadline?\n\nProbably midnight pacific, the night of October 20, 2026. To be finalized in discussion in the comments. Trading can stay open until we've finished testing and discussing but submissions after the deadline don't count. Per the spirit of the question we don't want to exclude real examples just because they came in late but originally we did say \"by market close\" and extended that a couple times by some number of days so we need to pick a hard cutoff and stick to it.\n\n5. What does \"clear to us (humans)\" mean?\n\nThis is part of the definition of \"egregious failure\". We want a question that doesn't get a WTF reaction from humans or otherwise make our heads hurt trying to parse it. [TBD on how robust to specific phrasing the failure needs to be but I'm thinking the failure should replicate across minor rephrasings that we humans agree are all clearly the same underlying question. 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The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election. 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Announcement of an ipo does not resolve this market, it must be completed.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-10T08:51:39.205000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":90027.14510834283,"volume_24hr":2733.1492885792363,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":62.970863342285156,"normalized_volume":47.874176025390625,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"tags":["technology-default","ai","openai","business"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 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If these sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the results certified by official government sources.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-21T23:47:23.634000Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":126516.63784021111,"volume_24hr":1633.4302283216684,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.04856491088867,"normalized_volume":50.77262496948242,"liquidity":5000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":["us-politics","elections","politics-default","2026-us-congressional-elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Democrats Sweep","top_outcome_probability":0.67,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009766000000000052,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1105.7325958749134,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T09:41:34.243159Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T09:41:34.243159Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/who-controls-congress-after-the-202","chart_24h":[638.699516483983,892.0215466764631,812.738870850155,922.738870850155,929.738870850155,2148.4671888784087,2062.4256408287574,1894.2620558831516,1811.6718838456409,1740.5743418487384,1671.8944192494125,1645.4377890664975,1589.0503482207341,1614.668538048394,1614.668538048394,1633.4302283216684]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tdA9NqRnpZ","ticker":"tdA9NqRnpZ","slug":"which-party-will-win-the-2026-texas","title":"Which party will win the 2026 Texas Senate race?","description":null,"image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/kl938/s8uCA05pAP.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-27T16:33:22.379000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":183589.58449609973,"volume_24hr":1618.6368234992651,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.91335678100586,"normalized_volume":54.041831970214844,"liquidity":10600.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","us-politics","texas","2026-us-congressional-elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"James Talarico (D)","top_outcome_probability":0.656425,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.005808000000000035,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-3018.7907325016567,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T12:45:24.335192Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T12:45:24.335192Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/kl938/which-party-will-win-the-2026-texas","chart_24h":[11910.825338375573,11756.767231516977,4459.844666323792,4419.844666323792,4418.844666323792,4617.986558637899,5032.445024381228,4907.78717404541,3340.0471740454104,1865.005972724525,1924.707015023004,1803.7080150230033,1914.1044263215356,1912.3544263215356,1821.087043035717,1831.087043035717,1856.087043035717,1871.927043035717,1881.927043035717,1931.927043035717,1881.927043035717,1861.927043035717,1618.6368234992651]},{"source":"manifold","id":"WqdbRcw5wWApd0c6nDye","ticker":"WqdbRcw5wWApd0c6nDye","slug":"who-will-win-the-2027-french-presid","title":"Who will win the 2027 french presidential election","description":"Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a French presidential election occurs in 2026 and there is no election in 2027, this market will resolve based on the 2026 election results.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/dionisos%2F44610856d8f5.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T19:34:28.927000Z","end_date":"2027-06-06T21:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36577.55676913029,"volume_24hr":1574.1240314951021,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.499977111816406,"normalized_volume":40.61318588256836,"liquidity":1441.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Elections","Politics"],"tags":["elections","france","politics-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Marine le Pen","top_outcome_probability":0.498509,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.006869000000000014,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":263.17632398333353,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T08:56:54.389837Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T08:56:54.389837Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/dionisos/who-will-win-the-2027-french-presid","chart_24h":[87.92502156362319,644.0774795194368,1577.4057381060918,1551.3168382432762,1572.408882122124,1560.001485343818,1557.8770983312174,1560.8770983312174,1560.8770983312174,1572.1303500820752,1578.2429460285312,1576.2429460285312,1574.1240314951021]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ACIIs2ngRC","ticker":"ACIIs2ngRC","slug":"will-something-crazy-happen-monthly","title":"Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]","description":"For each month, the option resolves YES if, during that month, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:\n\nOn Google Trends, pick \"Worldwide\" and \"Web Search\".\n\nPick a search term that you want to check for craziness.\n\nPick \"google\" as the search term to compare to.\n\nLook at the end-of-day scores for \"google\" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).\n\nIf on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.\n\nImportant exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:\n\nOlympics\n\nWorld Cup\n\nBig movie releases\n\nU.S. presidential elections\n\nSome events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:\n\nCOVID-19 pandemic\n\nJanuary 6 capitol riots\n\nRussian invasion of Ukraine\n\nWill Smith slapping Chris Rock\n\nDeath of Queen Elizabeth II\n\nIsrael-Gaza war\n\nTrump assassination attempt\n\nBiden dropping out of election\n\nIran-Israel war\n\nCharlie Kirk assassination\n\nPrior to any month, I may modify the criteria to preserve the intent of the market, if for example, \"Google\" is no longer a popular search term. Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.\n\nUPDATES: \n\nGoing forward, an event must end up having a Wikipedia article associated with it in order to qualify. The article must be about the same specific event as the Google Trends search term, according to my judgement. For example, the Wikipedia article on Will Smith is not specific enough to relate to the slap incident, but Chris Rock–Will Smith slapping incident is.\n\nOnce a search term becomes crazy, its history is \"reset\". That means for it to qualify again, its popularity must quintuple from since after it became crazy. That is, you cannot pick an old past_day to satisfy the quintupling requirement.\n\nResolutions\n\nJanuary: Capture of Nicolas Maduro\n\nFebruary: Israeli–United States strikes on Iran\n\nMarch: None","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:29:05.847000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":140883.65404408795,"volume_24hr":1500.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.78864669799805,"normalized_volume":51.70657730102539,"liquidity":12000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Politics","Culture"],"tags":["world-default","politics-default","news","culture-default","entertainment"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"February","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T12:45:24.335192Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T12:45:24.335192Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-something-crazy-happen-monthly","chart_24h":[1250.0,1500.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qLNSsQUZyN","ticker":null,"slug":"will-anthropics-ipo-s1-be-public-by-EspZI2PuCc","title":"Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if a Form S-1 or S-1/A for Anthropic’s proposed IPO is publicly accessible on SEC EDGAR by 23:59 ET on 31 October 2026. Publication of earlier confidential drafts (DRS) alone doesn’t count. Leaks and press reports don’t count. A filing that is later withdrawn  counts.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-12T16:48:20.304000Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":26947.789093995347,"volume_24hr":1429.6550608513433,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":53.0849609375,"normalized_volume":38.28566360473633,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technology-default","business","finance","anthropic","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.750301,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.750301,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.006750000000000034,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-7268.030694029619,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":"2026-10-13T15:07:38.715824Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-anthropics-ipo-s1-be-public-by-EspZI2PuCc","chart_24h":[0.757051,0.757051,0.757051,0.765396,0.769912,0.769912,0.763455,0.763715,0.763715,0.763915,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.758448,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.753921,0.750948,0.750301]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nhOLt6Ctuu","ticker":"nhOLt6Ctuu","slug":"october-2026-ai-model-releases","title":"October 2026 AI model releases","description":"This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during October 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership). \n\nSubvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for \"Gemini 3.1 Flash\"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for \"GPT5.5\"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.\n\nPlease ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions. \n\nAlso, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity. \n\n\nNotes:\n\nFor the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market. \n\nFaster throughput variants of an already released model do not count for this market. For example, GLM-5.3-Prime.\n\nFor Gemini model families specifically, 3.x subvariants count for the Gemini 4 options. So, a Gemini 3.9 Flash release counts for Gemini 4 Flash, etc. \n\nI've added Argon on the same tier as Pro since it seems like a name rebrand, though if it becomes clear that they are different, I will N/A the option and create two separate options.\n\n\nPrevious Months:\n\n@/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases-2I5QOgzd9Q \n\nUpdate 2026-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A Fable 5.2 release will count towards the Fable 5.5 option.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A GPT 6 Terra release will count towards the GPT-6.1 Terra option.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T20:09:43.059000Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33839.17628854215,"volume_24hr":1405.1489815513748,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.83279800415039,"normalized_volume":40.01387405395508,"liquidity":2700.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai-model-releases","ai","technology-default","ai-impacts"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Any Mistral Model","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:07:54.775635Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:07:54.775635Z","added_at":"2026-10-02T16:56:09.074713Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/prismatic/october-2026-ai-model-releases","chart_24h":[902.5680997049267,910.03923639548,906.9594872539997,922.1286583572974,912.1745702708839,963.9588967633765,971.8096446705661,598.6965739678808,648.8011302017148,691.047043482731,687.3577576203102,979.5272590825153,899.3192956015052,1220.330607357126,1220.330607357126,1210.4696551137504,1258.0529890574294,1258.0529890574294,1380.09983954604,1494.1619006321469,1486.6519006321469,1518.7590854295502,1477.5810248369178,1465.3918442472318,1500.2308602527344,1480.6027881662703,1474.338788002138,1404.8070102987056,1395.872766734246,1405.1489815513748]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lQhdpUhUS0","ticker":"lQhdpUhUS0","slug":"will-trump-win-the-2026-nobel-peace","title":"Will Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Price if there's peace in Ukraine?","description":"Peace before 2027. There doesn't have to be an explicit causal relationship, just whether the two things happen.\n\nThis is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:\n\n[markets]Previously:\n\n@/EvanDaniel/will-trump-win-the-2025-nobel-peace ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-11T17:11:45.225000Z","end_date":"2027-01-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16462.50158633656,"volume_24hr":1372.5197793379673,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.49110412597656,"normalized_volume":34.67622375488281,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Culture","World"],"tags":["donald-trump","trumps-second-term","academic-awards","ukrainerussia-war"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No peace, no Nobel","top_outcome_probability":0.927927,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.020782000000000078,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1372.5197793379666,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T12:23:21.110851Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T12:23:21.110851Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T21:35:05.334277Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-win-the-2026-nobel-peace","chart_24h":[1172.5197793379673,1372.5197793379673]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CcysACRQAh","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-republican-win-the-us-senate","title":"Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?","description":"If Marco Rubio leaves the Senate, there will be a special election in 2026 to decide who will fill the position for the remaining 2 years of that term. \n\nIf a GOP candidate wins this election, this market resolves yes.\n\nIf a non-GOP candidate wins, the election isn't held, or some other outcome occurs, this market resolves NO. 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If there's relevant context to the number, feel free to add it; or just add numbers that seem relevant to forecast.\n\nSee also:\n@/ShaneBo/will-democrats-have-225-or-more-sea \n\n@/kl938/will-the-democratic-party-win-more-Sh65d0959n ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-10T02:45:18.017000Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21034.78663384335,"volume_24hr":1354.7963829980526,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.30256271362305,"normalized_volume":36.4489631652832,"liquidity":7100.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":["2026-us-congressional-elections","2026-midterms","us-politics","democratic-party","elections"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"213+ (2022 result)","top_outcome_probability":0.99,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010167999999999955,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":330.81453139340306,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:08:59.740155Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:08:59.740155Z","added_at":"2026-07-28T22:59:24.789231Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/how-many-house-seats-will-the-democ","chart_24h":[1546.7444482142832,1446.7444482142832,1196.7444482142832,1082.7444482142832,1332.7444482142832,1260.1470279259759,1294.1470279259759,1354.7963829980526]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nyyupACZLR","ticker":null,"slug":"acx-2026-will-benjamin-netanyahu-ce","title":"[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?","description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/40966)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel.\n\nThis includes Netanyahu getting suspended, an acting Prime Minister being appointed, or any other temporary circumstance that removes his power, if it lasts for at least 14 consecutive days entirely within 2026.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:30:27.844000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":31753.301192703737,"volume_24hr":1345.7101865536094,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.205078125,"normalized_volume":39.527183532714844,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.370065,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.370065,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.005135999999999974,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1321.7101865536094,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":"2026-05-29T20:29:28.296600Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-benjamin-netanyahu-ce","chart_24h":[0.364929,0.364929,0.364929,0.364929,0.364929,0.350677,0.350677,0.38424,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065,0.370065]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5WEpXLx31YdM11zOdo4h","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace","title":"Will we get AGI before 2027?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027\n\nMOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)\n\nThis market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI?‌ as its baseline. If that resolves NO for this market's year (and every year earlier), this also resolves NO. If it resolves YES, we dig into the nitty gritty.\n\nPlease see THIS COMMENT from the 2026 market for more guidance about what a YES resolution might look like.\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2027:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-14d109820be6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid 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after the AP calls party control of the House.\n\nIf there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.\n\nIf at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.\n\nSenate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.\n\nIf there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.\n\nIf at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a hung chamber where the Associated Press cannot determine party control, the market will wait to resolve until control is established and one of the answer options becomes true.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/JonasVollmer/jzu2oj2foh.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.023000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":545278.2587031242,"volume_24hr":1120.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.580726623535156,"normalized_volume":64.18521881103516,"liquidity":15000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default","2024-us-presidential-election","donald-trump","democratic-party"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"R Pres, D Senate, D 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Qualifying scenarios may include:\n\nRevolution\n\nCivil war\n\nMilitary coup\n\nVoluntary abdication of power\n\nEstablishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority\n\nTo qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:\n\nThe core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND\n\nThe regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population\n\nExample of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T00:31:28.667000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3127909.806621607,"volume_24hr":1102.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.35239791870117,"normalized_volume":82.28398895263672,"liquidity":10010.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.034922,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.034922,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0002899999999999986,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":135.19885458694364,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T13:09:43.743406Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Plant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.034632,0.035915,0.035915,0.035437,0.035437,0.035437,0.035437,0.035437,0.035437,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035016,0.035015,0.034969,0.034969,0.034923,0.034923,0.034923,0.034923,0.034922,0.034922,0.034922,0.034922,0.034922]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2lZdlsyUPh","ticker":null,"slug":"will-democrats-control-both-the-hou-h5pyQIsQOU","title":"Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?","description":"Resolves after NYT calls both races. 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