{"last_refreshed_at":"2026-06-22T12:24:32.919099Z","by_category":{"Sports":[],"Politics":[{"kind":"event","source":"predict","market_id":"7872","src":"pr","event_id":"6590","question":"December 31","group_item_title":"December 31","event_title":"Starmer out by..?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":0.1,"d_prob":-97.3,"vol_24hr":274239.1000000001,"normalized_vol":85.84184265136719,"end_date":"2027-01-01T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://predict.fun/market/starmer-out-in-2026-1","event_url":"https://predict.fun/market/starmer-out-in-2026-1","image":"https://static.predict.fun/starmer-out-in-2026-1-december-31","event_image":"https://static.predict.fun/starmer-out-in-2026-1","spike_kind":"prob","score":529.1301422723637,"prob_history":[97.39999999999999,null,97.39999999999999,97.39999999999999,97.35000000000001,null,97.35000000000001,97.35000000000001,null,97.35000000000001,97.35000000000001,97.35000000000001,null,97.3,97.39999999999999,97.39999999999999,null,97.35000000000001,97.35000000000001,97.45,null,0.8999999999999999,0.1,0.1],"spike":{"pos":18.68915344361111,"peak_prob":97.45},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"predict","market_id":"7863","src":"pr","event_id":"6590","question":"June 30","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Starmer out by..?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":0.1,"d_prob":-91.85000000000001,"vol_24hr":69066.25,"normalized_vol":67.97665405273438,"end_date":"2027-01-01T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://predict.fun/market/starmer-out-in-2026-1","event_url":"https://predict.fun/market/starmer-out-in-2026-1","image":"https://static.predict.fun/starmer-out-in-2026-1-june-30","event_image":"https://static.predict.fun/starmer-out-in-2026-1","spike_kind":"prob","score":444.4871482969953,"prob_history":[91.95,null,90.05,90.95,89.0,null,87.05000000000001,87.25,null,82.5,87.6,88.35,null,88.6,88.64999999999999,89.95,null,87.1,87.25,88.4,null,1.0,0.1,0.1],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":91.95},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:ukraine-map","cluster_label":"Ukraine Map","cluster_slug":"ukraine-map","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":37573.808687000004,"score":400.1162205172823,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2439416","src":"pm","event_id":"560180","question":"Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"prob":97.39999999999999,"d_prob":90.39999999999999,"vol_24hr":26671.540685000004,"normalized_vol":36.59568786621094,"end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":400.1162205172823,"prob_history":[7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001,8.0,7.000000000000001,null,7.000000000000001,73.5,91.5,91.0,91.0,93.0,94.5,94.5,96.39999999999999,95.3,96.45,96.45,97.25,96.85000000000001,97.45,96.45,96.39999999999999,96.8,97.39999999999999],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":7.000000000000001},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2439417","src":"pm","event_id":"560180","question":"Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"July 31","event_title":"Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"prob":99.0,"d_prob":79.0,"vol_24hr":9900.398780999998,"normalized_vol":29.824932098388672,"end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by-july-31-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":315.6600276213545,"prob_history":[33.0,34.0,37.0,35.0,null,34.5,85.5,96.5,95.0,97.75,97.05,96.5,96.39999999999999,95.45,96.3,95.39999999999999,96.45,96.65,97.35000000000001,97.1,98.1,97.85000000000001,98.05,99.0],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":20.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2373474","src":"pm","event_id":"300475","question":"Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"prob":26.5,"d_prob":-26.0,"vol_24hr":745.4725559999997,"normalized_vol":15.419486045837402,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by-april-30-2026-mO5YsM4MLk53.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by-wewI1PssJN1q.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":74.69835998442676,"prob_history":[45.5,37.0,37.5,37.5,37.0,37.5,35.5,34.5,33.0,33.0,33.0,33.0,33.0,32.5,null,28.000000000000004,null,28.000000000000004,28.000000000000004,26.5,26.5,26.5,25.5,26.5],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":52.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2447485","src":"pm","event_id":"563426","question":"Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","event_title":"Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?","cat":"World","categories":["World"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"prob":38.5,"d_prob":-28.5,"vol_24hr":256.396665,"normalized_vol":10.855399131774902,"end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-hryshyne-byptptpt-20260604220409322/will-ukraine-re-enter-hryshyne-by-july-31-20260604220043035","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-hryshyne-byptptpt-20260604220409322","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-enter-novomykolaivka-by-march-31-jZAp-MOZ1pZ0.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":68.70218309461968,"prob_history":[67.0,69.0,65.0,66.0,65.0,65.0,66.5,62.0,54.50000000000001,56.00000000000001,44.5,44.0,43.0,40.5,41.5,44.0,45.5,43.0,46.0,44.0,44.0,40.0,43.5,38.5],"spike":{"pos":0.580756395,"peak_prob":69.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg"},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:trump-daily","cluster_label":"Trump Daily","cluster_slug":"trump-daily","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":15099.989432,"score":363.3561324080027,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2412317","src":"pm","event_id":"548786","question":"Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 21","event_title":"Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Culture"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":6.75,"d_prob":-87.25,"vol_24hr":14605.299432,"normalized_vol":32.398773193359375,"end_date":"2026-06-30T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-june-21-2026-217","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-19-QYCGq5klck49.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-19-QYCGq5klck49.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":363.3561324080027,"prob_history":[93.5,93.5,94.0,94.5,92.5,83.0,80.5,74.0,83.5,68.0,66.0,70.0,53.0,41.5,29.5,3.1,5.7,6.9,3.9,6.5,7.199999999999999,6.1,5.55,6.75],"spike":{"pos":1.2826088277777778,"peak_prob":95.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2420515","src":"pm","event_id":"552328","question":"Will Donald Trump dance on June 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 22","event_title":"Will Trump dance on...?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":1.35,"d_prob":-41.15,"vol_24hr":494.69,"normalized_vol":13.569995880126953,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-dance-onptptpt-20260602150029930/will-donald-trump-dance-on-june-22-2026-20260602150034345","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-dance-onptptpt-20260602150029930","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-dance-during-tpusa-event-on-april-17-xailndlB_5ND.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-dance-during-tpusa-event-on-april-17-xailndlB_5ND.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":110.90789798443787,"prob_history":[45.0,37.0,31.0,34.0,26.5,24.0,23.0,22.0,27.500000000000004,22.5,18.5,19.0,19.0,null,19.0,19.0,null,19.0,19.0,1.4000000000000001,1.4500000000000002,1.0999999999999999,1.0999999999999999,1.35],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":45.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-19-QYCGq5klck49.jpg"},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:colombia-election","cluster_label":"Colombia Election","cluster_slug":"colombia-election","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":3712854.0377370003,"score":221.1664223801939,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2446454","src":"pm","event_id":"563062","question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?","group_item_title":"Abelardo de la Espriella","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":0.8500000000000001,"d_prob":-43.65,"vol_24hr":116629.94653899998,"normalized_vol":47.9583625793457,"end_date":"2026-06-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508/will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-place-1st-in-bogota-in-the-second-round-of-the-2026-colombia-presidential-election-20260604170547991","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":221.1664223801939,"prob_history":[44.5,44.5,44.5,44.5,44.0,43.5,37.0,41.0,44.5,14.499999999999998,0.5,0.5499999999999999,0.8999999999999999,0.8999999999999999,1.0,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.8999999999999999,0.8500000000000001,0.8500000000000001],"spike":{"pos":7.578343704444444,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2446453","src":"pm","event_id":"563062","question":"Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iván Cepeda Castro","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":97.8,"d_prob":41.300000000000004,"vol_24hr":101211.19851899997,"normalized_vol":46.7996940612793,"end_date":"2026-06-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-place-1st-in-bogota-in-the-second-round-of-the-2026-colombia-presidential-election-20260604170547990","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ivn-cepeda-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-UcgdSjp1qVqg.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":206.71611706233696,"prob_history":[56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,64.5,58.5,56.49999999999999,86.0,99.1,99.0,98.75,99.1,99.0,99.35000000000001,98.5,98.5,98.5,98.5,97.75,97.85000000000001,97.89999999999999,97.8],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":56.00000000000001},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"569368","src":"pm","event_id":"34584","question":"Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iván Cepeda Castro","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":0.8,"d_prob":-11.7,"vol_24hr":1798713.7482460004,"normalized_vol":73.0876235961914,"end_date":"2026-06-21T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-Nc6-bsFm3eq7.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":73.18305885844812,"prob_history":[11.5,11.5,14.499999999999998,15.5,16.5,21.5,21.0,20.5,19.5,2.55,1.0,1.25,1.3,0.8,0.7000000000000001,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.8],"spike":{"pos":6.1808014855555555,"peak_prob":21.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"569366","src":"pm","event_id":"34584","question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella  win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Abelardo de la Espriella","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":99.25,"d_prob":10.75,"vol_24hr":1696299.1444329997,"normalized_vol":72.49385833740234,"end_date":"2026-06-21T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election/will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":66.96715401493229,"prob_history":[88.5,88.5,85.5,84.5,84.5,78.0,79.5,80.5,81.5,97.5,99.05000000000001,98.15,98.65,99.15,99.15,99.4,99.4,99.35000000000001,99.3,99.35000000000001,99.3,99.15,99.3,99.25],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":78.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg"},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:uk-labour-leadership","cluster_label":"UK Labour Leadership","cluster_slug":"uk-labour-leadership","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":613572.9206970001,"score":196.31509910816214,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"701702","src":"pm","event_id":"89548","question":"Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":92.0,"d_prob":52.0,"vol_24hr":5959.605339,"normalized_vol":26.625341415405273,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by-june-30","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":196.31509910816214,"prob_history":[40.5,43.0,34.5,36.0,34.5,34.0,null,32.5,28.999999999999996,33.0,34.0,30.5,30.0,29.5,28.000000000000004,28.499999999999996,null,null,29.5,null,62.5,68.0,93.5,92.0],"spike":{"pos":13.496771475555555,"peak_prob":28.000000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2481528","src":"pm","event_id":"89548","question":"Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","event_title":"Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":98.65,"d_prob":26.700000000000003,"vol_24hr":4125.997887,"normalized_vol":24.42099952697754,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by-december-31-2026-511","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":96.53743438211364,"prob_history":[74.5,75.85,77.35,76.55,76.85,81.6,80.15,80.4,59.0,73.35000000000001,81.6,72.89999999999999,63.849999999999994,59.95,59.3,57.05,56.89999999999999,59.3,57.099999999999994,64.8,91.95,86.6,97.39999999999999,98.65],"spike":{"pos":15.555183195277777,"peak_prob":56.89999999999999},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2591102","src":"pm","event_id":"89548","question":"Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","event_title":"Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":97.5,"d_prob":18.0,"vol_24hr":2598.1441650000006,"normalized_vol":21.783754348754883,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by-july-31","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":61.46694664005877,"prob_history":[80.0,79.5,85.0,null,86.5,null,87.0,82.5,57.49999999999999,69.0,70.5,72.0,70.5,60.5,58.5,59.5,55.00000000000001,59.0,57.49999999999999,54.0,86.5,83.5,94.0,97.5],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":54.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2099580","src":"pm","event_id":"424982","question":"Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?","group_item_title":"Starmer - UK PM","event_title":"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":65.5,"d_prob":27.5,"vol_24hr":375682.1656870002,"normalized_vol":58.05724334716797,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/will-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":153.307597707579,"prob_history":[36.5,35.5,27.0,35.0,36.5,42.5,43.0,46.0,43.5,41.0,36.5,36.0,39.5,38.5,35.0,31.0,27.500000000000004,29.5,35.0,35.5,36.0,43.5,71.0,65.5],"spike":{"pos":1.2826088277777778,"peak_prob":26.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2099592","src":"pm","event_id":"424982","question":"Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?","group_item_title":"Petro - Colombia President","event_title":"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":31.5,"d_prob":-20.0,"vol_24hr":225207.00761899987,"normalized_vol":53.520652770996094,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":107.05167656931594,"prob_history":[60.5,57.99999999999999,65.5,60.5,59.0,53.0,52.5,51.5,51.5,54.0,61.5,57.49999999999999,58.5,58.5,58.5,65.5,62.5,66.0,58.5,60.0,62.0,55.50000000000001,21.5,31.5],"spike":{"pos":16.985680348611112,"peak_prob":66.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg"},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:united-kingdom","cluster_label":"United Kingdom","cluster_slug":"united-kingdom","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":28660.085526000006,"score":168.73952302768618,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632928","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Wes Streeting","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":72.5,"d_prob":44.5,"vol_24hr":6191.975956000002,"normalized_vol":26.860126495361328,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429784","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429784-HZQFROeXOQN3.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":168.73952302768618,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,46.0,36.0,null,null,null,28.000000000000004,26.5,28.000000000000004,26.5,27.500000000000004,5.5,18.0,25.5,78.5,72.5],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":5.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632931","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Torsten Bell","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-41.55,"vol_24hr":1701.4300000000003,"normalized_vol":19.502351760864258,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-torsten-bell-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429787","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tb-d89e8dc265.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":134.25092790936307,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,21.0,42.5,41.0,null,43.0,41.8,34.25,41.699999999999996,3.15,2.25,2.15,1.4000000000000001,26.200000000000003,0.4,0.25],"spike":{"pos":9.2328912925,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632926","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Ed Miliband","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":10.5,"d_prob":-34.5,"vol_24hr":4560.657548,"normalized_vol":25.011999130249023,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-ed-miliband-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429782","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ed-miliband-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429782-0HQne9KD8L7t.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":126.23973242139242,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,46.0,50.5,null,null,null,45.0,47.5,null,74.0,33.5,33.5,33.5,33.0,16.0,10.5],"spike":{"pos":16.985680348611112,"peak_prob":74.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632930","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Yvette Cooper","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":3.65,"d_prob":-35.25,"vol_24hr":3043.9046700000004,"normalized_vol":22.669631958007812,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-yvette-cooper-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429786","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-yvette-cooper-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429786-F0Ysy7Db2I35.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":122.79597293459949,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,20.5,43.0,36.9,null,41.25,38.9,34.1,39.300000000000004,3.0,28.599999999999998,28.050000000000004,25.95,24.6,0.05,3.65],"spike":{"pos":7.578343704444444,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632927","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Darren Jones","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":3.0,"d_prob":-35.0,"vol_24hr":1871.1868350000004,"normalized_vol":20.003856658935547,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-darren-jones-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429783","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-darren-jones-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429783-QVb4Kogpht6K.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":114.53222154532423,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,21.0,43.5,36.9,36.85,36.7,38.0,36.4,36.15,3.5999999999999996,31.25,26.85,10.299999999999999,2.4,2.35,3.0],"spike":{"pos":9.2328912925,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632932","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"No next Chancellor in 2026","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":2.8000000000000003,"d_prob":-29.7,"vol_24hr":1645.4939780000002,"normalized_vol":19.327594757080078,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-there-be-no-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429788","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":95.5318363549825,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,44.0,44.5,43.5,43.0,41.5,32.5,35.5,38.5,34.0,11.5,8.0,7.000000000000001,6.0,2.7,2.8000000000000003],"spike":{"pos":9.944424294166666,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632925","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Pat McFadden","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":8.0,"d_prob":-26.0,"vol_24hr":2139.183235,"normalized_vol":20.72051429748535,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-pat-mcfadden-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429781","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-pat-mcfadden-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429781-l5LqRotAiPAC.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":86.59172490058842,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,44.0,43.5,null,41.5,41.0,34.0,36.5,37.0,32.0,6.5,5.0,7.5,9.5,5.0,8.0],"spike":{"pos":9.2328912925,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632929","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Shabana Mahmood","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":2.0,"d_prob":-15.0,"vol_24hr":1666.475478,"normalized_vol":19.393739700317383,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-shabana-mahmood-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429785","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-shabana-mahmood-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429785-f0ScPEbQ8gFe.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":48.330891838100825,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,21.0,20.0,17.5,null,null,17.0,17.0,7.5,null,7.5,6.0,5.5,3.55,3.55,1.5,2.0],"spike":{"pos":7.578343704444444,"peak_prob":21.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2252168","src":"pm","event_id":"481681","question":"Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?","group_item_title":"Wes Streeting","event_title":"Candidates in next Labour leadership election?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":1.05,"d_prob":-13.449999999999998,"vol_24hr":5126.664327,"normalized_vol":25.711265563964844,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election/will-wes-streeting-be-a-candidate-in-the-next-labour-party-leadership-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election-Z7PIZqj6ex0e.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election-Z7PIZqj6ex0e.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":49.89841844732178,"prob_history":[14.499999999999998,14.499999999999998,23.0,27.500000000000004,22.5,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,22.5,null,17.0,6.0,3.3000000000000003,16.55,25.4,1.0,1.05],"spike":{"pos":2.6905752225,"peak_prob":27.500000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2252171","src":"pm","event_id":"481681","question":"Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?","group_item_title":"Al Carns","event_title":"Candidates in next Labour leadership election?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":9.0,"d_prob":-6.5,"vol_24hr":713.113499,"normalized_vol":15.213584899902344,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election/will-al-carns-be-a-candidate-in-the-next-labour-party-leadership-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election-Z7PIZqj6ex0e.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election-Z7PIZqj6ex0e.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":18.549487077481032,"prob_history":[15.5,17.0,13.5,13.5,17.0,17.5,null,18.0,10.0,10.0,10.0,11.0,11.5,15.5,15.5,15.0,null,15.0,15.0,15.0,16.0,30.5,14.499999999999998,9.0],"spike":{"pos":20.573172875,"peak_prob":30.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429784-HZQFROeXOQN3.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2326302","src":"pm","event_id":"485673","question":"Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["South Korea"],"prob":90.5,"d_prob":39.5,"vol_24hr":850.8000000000001,"normalized_vol":16.040939331054688,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/jung-chung-rae-out-as-dp-leader-in-2026/jung-chung-rae-out-as-dp-leader-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/jung-chung-rae-out-as-dp-leader-in-2026","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jung-chung-rae-out-as-dp-leader-in-2026-USpb7bZnlgeR.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jung-chung-rae-out-as-dp-leader-in-2026-USpb7bZnlgeR.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":115.74833661164034,"prob_history":[84.0,72.5,73.5,76.5,77.0,74.5,73.0,77.5,84.5,86.0,84.5,84.5,84.5,84.5,84.5,84.5,84.5,84.5,84.5,null,86.0,86.0,86.0,90.5],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":51.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXBURNHAMPM-27JAN01-0711","src":"ka","event_id":"KXBURNHAMPM-27JAN01","question":"Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before July 11, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before July 11, 2026","event_title":"Andy Burnham appointed as Prime Minister?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":15.0,"d_prob":-51.0,"vol_24hr":163.49,"normalized_vol":8.311485290527344,"end_date":"2026-07-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxburnhampm/andy-burnham-appointed-as-prime-minister/kxburnhampm-27jan01","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxburnhampm/andy-burnham-appointed-as-prime-minister/kxburnhampm-27jan01","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":113.02311453076031,"prob_history":[66.0,66.0,66.0,66.0,null,66.0,null,null,66.0,66.0,66.0,66.0,66.0,66.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,42.0,42.0,35.0,53.0,53.0,15.0],"spike":{"pos":16.902845071111113,"peak_prob":78.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXEOWEEK-26JUN27-2","src":"ka","event_id":"KXEOWEEK-26JUN27","question":"Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Jun 21, 2026 and Jun 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 2","event_title":"How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (6/21 - 6/27)","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":47.0,"d_prob":-31.0,"vol_24hr":2465.14,"normalized_vol":19.471555709838867,"end_date":"2026-07-11T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeoweek/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-this-week-621-627/kxeoweek-26jun27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeoweek/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-this-week-621-627/kxeoweek-26jun27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":105.15254954846569,"prob_history":[26.0,26.0,26.0,26.0,26.0,26.0,26.0,26.0,26.0,26.0,78.0,75.0,75.0,null,54.0,42.0,42.0,null,null,43.0,43.0,43.0,43.0,47.0],"spike":{"pos":9.890418764166666,"peak_prob":78.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXEOWEEK-26JUN27-1","src":"ka","event_id":"KXEOWEEK-26JUN27","question":"Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Jun 21, 2026 and Jun 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 1","event_title":"How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (6/21 - 6/27)","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":79.0,"d_prob":21.000000000000007,"vol_24hr":3096.05,"normalized_vol":20.62392234802246,"end_date":"2026-07-11T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeoweek/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-this-week-621-627/kxeoweek-26jun27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeoweek/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-this-week-621-627/kxeoweek-26jun27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":73.30991255354033,"prob_history":[57.99999999999999,57.99999999999999,57.99999999999999,57.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,null,null,null,76.0,66.0,66.0,66.0,64.0,79.0,null,null,null,null,79.0,null,null,79.0],"spike":{"pos":5.3623668647222225,"peak_prob":56.99999999999999},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXEOWEEK-26JUN27-0","src":"ka","event_id":"KXEOWEEK-26JUN27","question":"Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Jun 21, 2026 and Jun 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 0","event_title":"How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (6/21 - 6/27)","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":96.0,"d_prob":18.0,"vol_24hr":1899.01,"normalized_vol":18.192928314208984,"end_date":"2026-07-11T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeoweek/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-this-week-621-627/kxeoweek-26jun27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeoweek/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-this-week-621-627/kxeoweek-26jun27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":59.01760596073041,"prob_history":[78.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,77.0,null,null,92.0,90.0,90.0,null,null,92.0,92.0,96.0,null,null,96.0,null,null,96.0],"spike":{"pos":6.014205761666667,"peak_prob":77.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN27","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFABLERESTORE-27","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jun 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Jun 27, 2026","event_title":"When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":24.0,"d_prob":-25.0,"vol_24hr":14098.3,"normalized_vol":29.134841918945312,"end_date":"2026-07-04T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfablerestore/when-will-anthropic-restore-fable-5-access-for-us-customers/kxfablerestore-27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfablerestore/when-will-anthropic-restore-fable-5-access-for-us-customers/kxfablerestore-27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":103.72993878503019,"prob_history":[49.0,48.0,21.0,42.0,65.0,30.0,28.999999999999996,41.0,46.0,49.0,36.0,34.0,35.0,35.0,36.0,36.0,36.0,32.0,32.0,16.0,24.0,18.0,26.0,24.0],"spike":{"pos":3.4046934875,"peak_prob":65.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFABLERESTORE-27","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Jul 1, 2026","event_title":"When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":49.0,"d_prob":-19.0,"vol_24hr":29101.04,"normalized_vol":33.722354888916016,"end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfablerestore/when-will-anthropic-restore-fable-5-access-for-us-customers/kxfablerestore-27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfablerestore/when-will-anthropic-restore-fable-5-access-for-us-customers/kxfablerestore-27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":84.81454523279803,"prob_history":[68.0,67.0,66.0,76.0,68.0,49.0,50.0,57.99999999999999,62.0,60.0,61.0,62.0,56.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,57.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,56.00000000000001,52.0,50.0,37.0,52.0,47.0,47.0,49.0],"spike":{"pos":2.740535317222222,"peak_prob":76.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL10","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFABLERESTORE-27","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 10, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Jul 10, 2026","event_title":"When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":63.0,"d_prob":-15.0,"vol_24hr":4889.03,"normalized_vol":23.034303665161133,"end_date":"2026-07-17T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfablerestore/when-will-anthropic-restore-fable-5-access-for-us-customers/kxfablerestore-27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfablerestore/when-will-anthropic-restore-fable-5-access-for-us-customers/kxfablerestore-27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":55.33967285248158,"prob_history":[78.0,80.0,79.0,80.0,80.0,80.0,79.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,65.0,68.0,74.0,74.0,70.0,70.0,70.0,73.0,73.0,65.0,70.0,70.0,63.0,63.0],"spike":{"pos":4.710361588888889,"peak_prob":80.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL17","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFABLERESTORE-27","question":"Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 17, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Jul 17, 2026","event_title":"When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":67.0,"d_prob":-13.0,"vol_24hr":1406.97,"normalized_vol":16.77712631225586,"end_date":"2026-07-24T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfablerestore/when-will-anthropic-restore-fable-5-access-for-us-customers/kxfablerestore-27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfablerestore/when-will-anthropic-restore-fable-5-access-for-us-customers/kxfablerestore-27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":40.931714216561325,"prob_history":[80.0,80.0,null,80.0,80.0,80.0,82.0,81.0,null,80.0,80.0,80.0,80.0,null,null,80.0,null,75.0,75.0,80.0,70.0,70.0,57.99999999999999,67.0],"spike":{"pos":5.3623668647222225,"peak_prob":82.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2298007","src":"pm","event_id":"500053","question":"Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"US lifts Iran OFAC sanctions by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"prob":79.5,"d_prob":29.5,"vol_24hr":1937.457495,"normalized_vol":20.188982009887695,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-lifts-iran-ofac-sanctions-by/will-the-us-lift-direct-iran-ofac-sanctions-by-june-30-2026-171","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-lifts-iran-ofac-sanctions-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-lifts-iran-ofac-sanctions-by-kxp42L7j3y7U.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-lifts-iran-ofac-sanctions-by-kxp42L7j3y7U.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":96.97996033591494,"prob_history":[49.5,50.0,48.0,48.0,48.5,50.5,52.0,52.0,52.5,52.5,53.0,53.0,null,62.5,62.0,61.5,61.5,64.0,64.0,64.0,64.5,66.0,72.0,79.5],"spike":{"pos":2.6905752225,"peak_prob":48.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"Elections":[{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:colombia-election","cluster_label":"Colombia Election","cluster_slug":"colombia-election","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":3712854.0377370003,"score":221.1664223801939,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2446454","src":"pm","event_id":"563062","question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?","group_item_title":"Abelardo de la Espriella","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":0.8500000000000001,"d_prob":-43.65,"vol_24hr":116629.94653899998,"normalized_vol":47.9583625793457,"end_date":"2026-06-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508/will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-place-1st-in-bogota-in-the-second-round-of-the-2026-colombia-presidential-election-20260604170547991","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":221.1664223801939,"prob_history":[44.5,44.5,44.5,44.5,44.0,43.5,37.0,41.0,44.5,14.499999999999998,0.5,0.5499999999999999,0.8999999999999999,0.8999999999999999,1.0,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.8999999999999999,0.8500000000000001,0.8500000000000001],"spike":{"pos":7.578343704444444,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2446453","src":"pm","event_id":"563062","question":"Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iván Cepeda Castro","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":97.8,"d_prob":41.300000000000004,"vol_24hr":101211.19851899997,"normalized_vol":46.7996940612793,"end_date":"2026-06-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-place-1st-in-bogota-in-the-second-round-of-the-2026-colombia-presidential-election-20260604170547990","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ivn-cepeda-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-UcgdSjp1qVqg.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":206.71611706233696,"prob_history":[56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,64.5,58.5,56.49999999999999,86.0,99.1,99.0,98.75,99.1,99.0,99.35000000000001,98.5,98.5,98.5,98.5,97.75,97.85000000000001,97.89999999999999,97.8],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":56.00000000000001},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"569368","src":"pm","event_id":"34584","question":"Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iván Cepeda Castro","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":0.8,"d_prob":-11.7,"vol_24hr":1798713.7482460004,"normalized_vol":73.0876235961914,"end_date":"2026-06-21T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-Nc6-bsFm3eq7.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":73.18305885844812,"prob_history":[11.5,11.5,14.499999999999998,15.5,16.5,21.5,21.0,20.5,19.5,2.55,1.0,1.25,1.3,0.8,0.7000000000000001,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.8],"spike":{"pos":6.1808014855555555,"peak_prob":21.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"569366","src":"pm","event_id":"34584","question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella  win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Abelardo de la Espriella","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":99.25,"d_prob":10.75,"vol_24hr":1696299.1444329997,"normalized_vol":72.49385833740234,"end_date":"2026-06-21T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election/will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":66.96715401493229,"prob_history":[88.5,88.5,85.5,84.5,84.5,78.0,79.5,80.5,81.5,97.5,99.05000000000001,98.15,98.65,99.15,99.15,99.4,99.4,99.35000000000001,99.3,99.35000000000001,99.3,99.15,99.3,99.25],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":78.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXMAMDANIENDORSE-26SEP-LWW","src":"ka","event_id":"KXMAMDANIENDORSE-26SEP","question":"Will Claire Valdez be defeated in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?","group_item_title":"Valdez loses, Lander wins, Chevalier wins","event_title":"Mamdani NYC primary endorsements combo","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":78.0,"d_prob":74.0,"vol_24hr":897.36,"normalized_vol":14.76195240020752,"end_date":"2026-11-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmamdaniendorse/mamdani-nyc-primary-endorsements-combo/kxmamdaniendorse-26sep","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmamdaniendorse/mamdani-nyc-primary-endorsements-combo/kxmamdaniendorse-26sep","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":218.55533007879592,"prob_history":[4.0,4.0,4.0,4.0,4.0,5.0,5.0,6.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,4.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,null,78.0,78.0,78.0,78.0,78.0],"spike":{"pos":12.435732813333333,"peak_prob":4.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXMAMDANIENDORSE-26SEP-LWL","src":"ka","event_id":"KXMAMDANIENDORSE-26SEP","question":"Will Claire Valdez be defeated in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?","group_item_title":"Valdez loses, Lander wins, Chevalier loses","event_title":"Mamdani NYC primary endorsements combo","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":17.0,"d_prob":-7.0,"vol_24hr":732.65,"normalized_vol":13.895747184753418,"end_date":"2026-11-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmamdaniendorse/mamdani-nyc-primary-endorsements-combo/kxmamdaniendorse-26sep","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmamdaniendorse/mamdani-nyc-primary-endorsements-combo/kxmamdaniendorse-26sep","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":20.058422453138746,"prob_history":[24.0,24.0,24.0,24.0,28.000000000000004,32.0,31.0,31.0,35.0,35.0,32.0,31.0,31.0,27.0,27.0,27.0,27.0,13.0,13.0,null,null,13.0,17.0,17.0],"spike":{"pos":4.059279649444444,"peak_prob":41.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:uk-labour-leadership","cluster_label":"UK Labour Leadership","cluster_slug":"uk-labour-leadership","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":613572.9206970001,"score":196.31509910816214,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"701702","src":"pm","event_id":"89548","question":"Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":92.0,"d_prob":52.0,"vol_24hr":5959.605339,"normalized_vol":26.625341415405273,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by-june-30","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":196.31509910816214,"prob_history":[40.5,43.0,34.5,36.0,34.5,34.0,null,32.5,28.999999999999996,33.0,34.0,30.5,30.0,29.5,28.000000000000004,28.499999999999996,null,null,29.5,null,62.5,68.0,93.5,92.0],"spike":{"pos":13.496771475555555,"peak_prob":28.000000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2481528","src":"pm","event_id":"89548","question":"Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","event_title":"Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":98.65,"d_prob":26.700000000000003,"vol_24hr":4125.997887,"normalized_vol":24.42099952697754,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by-december-31-2026-511","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":96.53743438211364,"prob_history":[74.5,75.85,77.35,76.55,76.85,81.6,80.15,80.4,59.0,73.35000000000001,81.6,72.89999999999999,63.849999999999994,59.95,59.3,57.05,56.89999999999999,59.3,57.099999999999994,64.8,91.95,86.6,97.39999999999999,98.65],"spike":{"pos":15.555183195277777,"peak_prob":56.89999999999999},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2591102","src":"pm","event_id":"89548","question":"Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","event_title":"Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":97.5,"d_prob":18.0,"vol_24hr":2598.1441650000006,"normalized_vol":21.783754348754883,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by-july-31","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":61.46694664005877,"prob_history":[80.0,79.5,85.0,null,86.5,null,87.0,82.5,57.49999999999999,69.0,70.5,72.0,70.5,60.5,58.5,59.5,55.00000000000001,59.0,57.49999999999999,54.0,86.5,83.5,94.0,97.5],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":54.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2099580","src":"pm","event_id":"424982","question":"Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?","group_item_title":"Starmer - UK PM","event_title":"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":65.5,"d_prob":27.5,"vol_24hr":375682.1656870002,"normalized_vol":58.05724334716797,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/will-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":153.307597707579,"prob_history":[36.5,35.5,27.0,35.0,36.5,42.5,43.0,46.0,43.5,41.0,36.5,36.0,39.5,38.5,35.0,31.0,27.500000000000004,29.5,35.0,35.5,36.0,43.5,71.0,65.5],"spike":{"pos":1.2826088277777778,"peak_prob":26.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2099592","src":"pm","event_id":"424982","question":"Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?","group_item_title":"Petro - Colombia President","event_title":"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":31.5,"d_prob":-20.0,"vol_24hr":225207.00761899987,"normalized_vol":53.520652770996094,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":107.05167656931594,"prob_history":[60.5,57.99999999999999,65.5,60.5,59.0,53.0,52.5,51.5,51.5,54.0,61.5,57.49999999999999,58.5,58.5,58.5,65.5,62.5,66.0,58.5,60.0,62.0,55.50000000000001,21.5,31.5],"spike":{"pos":16.985680348611112,"peak_prob":66.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/labour-leadership-challenge-by-0BJQ0PKehgJK.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXMDPRIMARY-06R26-CBUR","src":"ka","event_id":"KXMDPRIMARY-06R26","question":"Will Chris Burnett be the Republican nominee for MD-06?","group_item_title":"Chris Burnett","event_title":"MD-06 Republican nominee?","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":28.000000000000004,"d_prob":-46.0,"vol_24hr":552.15,"normalized_vol":12.731697082519531,"end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmdprimary/md-06-republican-nominee/kxmdprimary-06r26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmdprimary/md-06-republican-nominee/kxmdprimary-06r26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":126.17077416946239,"prob_history":[74.0,74.0,74.0,74.0,null,74.0,null,74.0,null,74.0,74.0,null,74.0,63.0,63.0,63.0,63.0,69.0,69.0,28.000000000000004,28.000000000000004,null,null,28.000000000000004],"spike":{"pos":11.18629527611111,"peak_prob":74.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXSTPETERSBURGMAYOR-26-CCRI","src":"ka","event_id":"KXSTPETERSBURGMAYOR-26","question":"Who will win the 2026 St. Petersburg, Florida mayoral election?","group_item_title":"Charlie Crist","event_title":"St. Petersburg Mayoral Election","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":53.0,"d_prob":-39.0,"vol_24hr":333.63,"normalized_vol":10.785927772521973,"end_date":"2027-08-18T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxstpetersburgmayor/st-petersburg-mayoral-election/kxstpetersburgmayor-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxstpetersburgmayor/st-petersburg-mayoral-election/kxstpetersburgmayor-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":98.45803006329459,"prob_history":[39.0,39.0,39.0,39.0,39.0,39.0,39.0,39.0,39.0,39.0,53.0,null,53.0,null,53.0,null,null,null,53.0,null,null,null,null,53.0],"spike":{"pos":9.240171664444444,"peak_prob":92.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"manifold","market_id":"IRZduASuhA","src":"ma","event_id":"PzAgzI9E6U","question":"Keir Starmer","group_item_title":"Keir Starmer","event_title":"Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":97.7029,"d_prob":33.832,"vol_24hr":43356.666400111106,"normalized_vol":73.29791259765625,"end_date":"2026-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Base/who-will-be-the-next-world-leader-t-RR2Es2OE6Q","event_url":"https://manifold.markets/Base/who-will-be-the-next-world-leader-t-RR2Es2OE6Q","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":89.25072440028386,"prob_history":[63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,74.11330000000001,74.11330000000001,81.05409999999999,84.9109,84.923,84.923,89.6075,89.3069,89.3069,89.3069,89.3069,89.2495,89.2495,89.2009,89.6973,89.6973,97.7029],"spike":{"pos":6.181749958888889,"peak_prob":63.8709},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26-ICAS","src":"ka","event_id":"KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26","question":"Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the next Colombian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iván Cepeda","event_title":"Who will win the next Colombian presidential election?","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":1.2,"d_prob":-12.800000000000002,"vol_24hr":585150.25,"normalized_vol":56.289154052734375,"end_date":"2027-05-31T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcolombiapres/who-will-win-the-next-colombian-presidential-election/kxcolombiapres-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcolombiapres/who-will-win-the-next-colombian-presidential-election/kxcolombiapres-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":73.82103215498576,"prob_history":[14.000000000000002,15.0,14.000000000000002,19.0,17.0,23.0,21.0,19.0,8.1,5.6000000000000005,1.0999999999999999,2.1999999999999997,2.1,2.9000000000000004,1.2,1.3,2.1999999999999997,1.5,1.6,1.3,1.3,1.4000000000000001,1.2,1.2],"spike":{"pos":4.710361588888889,"peak_prob":23.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26-AESP","src":"ka","event_id":"KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26","question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the next Colombian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Abelardo de la Espriella","event_title":"Who will win the next Colombian presidential election?","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":97.6,"d_prob":11.599999999999994,"vol_24hr":318015.31,"normalized_vol":51.23851776123047,"end_date":"2027-05-31T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcolombiapres/who-will-win-the-next-colombian-presidential-election/kxcolombiapres-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcolombiapres/who-will-win-the-next-colombian-presidential-election/kxcolombiapres-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":63.82841297129024,"prob_history":[86.0,87.0,85.0,84.0,84.0,79.0,82.0,82.0,92.80000000000001,98.0,98.2,98.5,98.2,97.7,98.0,97.3,97.7,98.5,98.5,97.5,97.5,98.4,97.89999999999999,97.6],"spike":{"pos":4.710361588888889,"peak_prob":79.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"1194643","src":"pm","event_id":"166780","question":"Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iliana Iotova","event_title":"Bulgaria Presidential Election","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"countries":["Bulgaria"],"prob":47.0,"d_prob":19.499999999999996,"vol_24hr":4838.720985999999,"normalized_vol":25.364545822143555,"end_date":"2026-11-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election/will-iliana-iotova-win-the-next-bulgarian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iliana-iotova-win-the-2026-bulgarian-presidential-election-xCV2fmOJQbEV.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bulgaria-election-scheduled-by-december-31-sj1lowFVfVXg.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":71.85399633599135,"prob_history":[27.500000000000004,27.500000000000004,28.999999999999996,null,null,28.999999999999996,28.999999999999996,null,30.0,31.0,32.5,32.5,34.5,34.5,null,null,null,34.5,38.5,40.0,40.5,40.0,null,47.0],"spike":{"pos":0.580756395,"peak_prob":27.500000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"1194657","src":"pm","event_id":"166780","question":"Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Аndrey Gyurov","event_title":"Bulgaria Presidential Election","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"countries":["Bulgaria"],"prob":41.0,"d_prob":-14.000000000000007,"vol_24hr":202.32456900000003,"normalized_vol":9.952622413635254,"end_date":"2026-11-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election/will-ndrey-gyurov-win-the-next-bulgarian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ndrey-gyurov-win-the-next-bulgarian-presidential-election-ua6JHKsHyblw.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bulgaria-election-scheduled-by-december-31-sj1lowFVfVXg.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":32.314658045202,"prob_history":[55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,55.50000000000001,55.50000000000001,55.50000000000001,55.50000000000001,45.0,46.0,44.5,44.0,43.0,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,42.5,42.0,41.0],"spike":{"pos":2.6905752225,"peak_prob":56.00000000000001},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFLPRIMARY-24D26-OGIL","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFLPRIMARY-24D26","question":"Will Oliver Gilbert be the Democratic nominee for FL-24?","group_item_title":"Oliver Gilbert","event_title":"FL-24 Democratic nominee?","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":60.0,"d_prob":18.0,"vol_24hr":1909.14,"normalized_vol":18.218564987182617,"end_date":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxflprimary/fl-24-democratic-nominee/kxflprimary-24d26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxflprimary/fl-24-democratic-nominee/kxflprimary-24d26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":59.05917358532121,"prob_history":[42.0,42.0,null,null,null,50.0,50.0,null,50.0,null,null,null,50.0,60.0,60.0,60.0,null,60.0,null,null,null,null,null,60.0],"spike":{"pos":0.1447701980555556,"peak_prob":42.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"648378","src":"pm","event_id":"64726","question":"Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?","group_item_title":"","event_title":"Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":62.0,"d_prob":15.5,"vol_24hr":3062.065239000002,"normalized_vol":22.703256607055664,"end_date":"2026-06-25T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot-Cu7EZFeYeO2R.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot-Cu7EZFeYeO2R.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":54.03542182492488,"prob_history":[46.5,48.5,55.00000000000001,78.0,64.0,57.49999999999999,59.5,60.0,60.5,62.5,64.5,55.50000000000001,58.5,58.5,57.49999999999999,56.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,56.49999999999999,57.49999999999999,56.99999999999999,62.0],"spike":{"pos":2.6905752225,"peak_prob":78.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2166692","src":"pm","event_id":"452161","question":"Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?","group_item_title":"Alexandru Nazare","event_title":"Next Prime Minister of Romania?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Romania"],"prob":3.5000000000000004,"d_prob":-14.899999999999999,"vol_24hr":1564.522951,"normalized_vol":19.065298080444336,"end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732/will-alexandru-nazare-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-alexandru-nazare-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania-iOG3VYHVVQuL.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-prime-minister-of-romania-party-LQ77lH2izZmR.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":47.600425639266966,"prob_history":[18.4,18.45,18.35,18.45,18.5,19.950000000000003,18.35,18.099999999999998,13.65,13.65,14.499999999999998,13.65,13.750000000000002,13.850000000000001,14.2,13.65,13.3,13.55,13.600000000000001,null,12.2,10.85,11.1,3.5000000000000004],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":19.950000000000003},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2166701","src":"pm","event_id":"452161","question":"Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?","group_item_title":"Adrian Veștea","event_title":"Next Prime Minister of Romania?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Romania"],"prob":24.7,"d_prob":-1.2000000000000028,"vol_24hr":27750.141965,"normalized_vol":36.88093948364258,"end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732/will-adrian-vetea-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-adrian-vetea-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania-iiLm9XvO_jjC.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-prime-minister-of-romania-party-LQ77lH2izZmR.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":5.33193703095666,"prob_history":[24.3,24.3,23.849999999999998,25.650000000000002,14.6,16.1,16.55,22.35,40.9,26.55,33.050000000000004,40.050000000000004,41.6,41.25,39.7,36.15,39.25,34.75,38.7,30.4,52.65,52.5,31.35,24.7],"spike":{"pos":19.845404637222224,"peak_prob":52.65},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"Crypto":[],"Culture":[{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:trump-daily","cluster_label":"Trump Daily","cluster_slug":"trump-daily","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":15099.989432,"score":363.3561324080027,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2412317","src":"pm","event_id":"548786","question":"Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 21","event_title":"Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Culture"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":6.75,"d_prob":-87.25,"vol_24hr":14605.299432,"normalized_vol":32.398773193359375,"end_date":"2026-06-30T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-june-21-2026-217","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-19-QYCGq5klck49.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-19-QYCGq5klck49.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":363.3561324080027,"prob_history":[93.5,93.5,94.0,94.5,92.5,83.0,80.5,74.0,83.5,68.0,66.0,70.0,53.0,41.5,29.5,3.1,5.7,6.9,3.9,6.5,7.199999999999999,6.1,5.55,6.75],"spike":{"pos":1.2826088277777778,"peak_prob":95.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2420515","src":"pm","event_id":"552328","question":"Will Donald Trump dance on June 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 22","event_title":"Will Trump dance on...?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":1.35,"d_prob":-41.15,"vol_24hr":494.69,"normalized_vol":13.569995880126953,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-dance-onptptpt-20260602150029930/will-donald-trump-dance-on-june-22-2026-20260602150034345","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-dance-onptptpt-20260602150029930","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-dance-during-tpusa-event-on-april-17-xailndlB_5ND.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-dance-during-tpusa-event-on-april-17-xailndlB_5ND.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":110.90789798443787,"prob_history":[45.0,37.0,31.0,34.0,26.5,24.0,23.0,22.0,27.500000000000004,22.5,18.5,19.0,19.0,null,19.0,19.0,null,19.0,19.0,1.4000000000000001,1.4500000000000002,1.0999999999999999,1.0999999999999999,1.35],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":45.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-19-QYCGq5klck49.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-ANKC","src":"ka","event_id":"KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3","question":"Will Aniya and KC finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?","group_item_title":"Aniya and KC","event_title":"Love Island USA S8: Top 3 Couples","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":13.0,"d_prob":-34.0,"vol_24hr":1929.41,"normalized_vol":18.26951026916504,"end_date":"2026-09-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxloveislandusarank/love-island-usa-s8-top-3-couples/kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxloveislandusarank/love-island-usa-s8-top-3-couples/kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":111.7120849944096,"prob_history":[47.0,45.0,33.0,44.0,39.0,44.0,47.0,48.0,45.0,48.0,49.0,41.0,32.0,40.0,25.0,36.0,23.0,12.0,14.000000000000002,14.000000000000002,16.0,13.0,13.0,13.0],"spike":{"pos":9.890418764166666,"peak_prob":49.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-TRBR","src":"ka","event_id":"KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3","question":"Will Trinity and Bryce finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?","group_item_title":"Trinity and Bryce","event_title":"Love Island USA S8: Top 3 Couples","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":53.0,"d_prob":-12.0,"vol_24hr":1878.84,"normalized_vol":18.14152717590332,"end_date":"2026-09-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxloveislandusarank/love-island-usa-s8-top-3-couples/kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxloveislandusarank/love-island-usa-s8-top-3-couples/kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":39.289450637499236,"prob_history":[65.0,65.0,59.0,67.0,22.0,57.99999999999999,56.00000000000001,48.0,71.0,61.0,59.0,59.0,59.0,28.000000000000004,60.0,56.00000000000001,45.0,53.0,53.0,53.0,53.0,63.0,53.0,53.0],"spike":{"pos":3.4046934875,"peak_prob":22.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-MESI","src":"ka","event_id":"KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3","question":"Will Melanie and Sincere finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?","group_item_title":"Melanie and Sincere","event_title":"Love Island USA S8: Top 3 Couples","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":33.0,"d_prob":-7.0,"vol_24hr":1726.8,"normalized_vol":17.73790168762207,"end_date":"2026-09-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxloveislandusarank/love-island-usa-s8-top-3-couples/kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxloveislandusarank/love-island-usa-s8-top-3-couples/kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":22.662454287681097,"prob_history":[40.0,37.0,44.0,50.0,38.0,38.0,40.0,36.0,46.0,38.0,46.0,40.0,38.0,39.0,35.0,33.0,32.0,33.0,24.0,32.0,30.0,31.0,31.0,33.0],"spike":{"pos":2.740535317222222,"peak_prob":50.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-KAZA","src":"ka","event_id":"KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3","question":"Will Kayda and Zach finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?","group_item_title":"Kayda and Zach","event_title":"Love Island USA S8: Top 3 Couples","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":42.0,"d_prob":3.0,"vol_24hr":1248.85,"normalized_vol":16.230316162109375,"end_date":"2026-09-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxloveislandusarank/love-island-usa-s8-top-3-couples/kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxloveislandusarank/love-island-usa-s8-top-3-couples/kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":9.290573683629173,"prob_history":[39.0,68.0,68.0,44.0,44.0,53.0,53.0,52.0,38.0,26.0,64.0,50.0,47.0,48.0,50.0,43.0,34.0,41.0,42.0,51.0,51.0,47.0,42.0,42.0],"spike":{"pos":1.4525583694444444,"peak_prob":68.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-WEE","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26","question":"Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?","group_item_title":"The Weeknd","event_title":"Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":["United States","Canada","Mexico"],"prob":46.0,"d_prob":44.0,"vol_24hr":308.97,"normalized_vol":10.503725051879883,"end_date":"2027-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":109.61806518529924,"prob_history":[2.0,2.0,null,2.0,null,2.0,2.0,15.0,19.0,19.0,9.0,9.0,4.0,4.0,null,7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001,null,7.000000000000001,null,7.000000000000001,6.0,null,46.0],"spike":{"pos":5.3623668647222225,"peak_prob":2.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-FUT","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26","question":"Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?","group_item_title":"Future","event_title":"Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":16.0,"d_prob":9.0,"vol_24hr":239.98,"normalized_vol":9.601984977722168,"end_date":"2027-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":21.43782900039118,"prob_history":[7.000000000000001,9.0,null,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,null,null,9.0,9.0,null,35.0,32.0,15.0,27.0,27.0,17.0,17.0,17.0,17.0,17.0,17.0,16.0],"spike":{"pos":11.18629527611111,"peak_prob":36.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-POS","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26","question":"Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?","group_item_title":"Post Malone","event_title":"Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":["United States","Canada","Mexico"],"prob":8.0,"d_prob":5.0,"vol_24hr":172.05,"normalized_vol":8.477566719055176,"end_date":"2027-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":11.190858018150733,"prob_history":[2.0,2.0,2.0,3.0,null,3.0,25.0,25.0,null,null,25.0,null,5.0,15.0,11.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,11.0,8.0,null,8.0],"spike":{"pos":9.890418764166666,"peak_prob":25.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-LAD","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26","question":"Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?","group_item_title":"Lady Gaga","event_title":"Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":["United States","Canada","Mexico"],"prob":4.0,"d_prob":-4.0,"vol_24hr":193.13,"normalized_vol":8.859957695007324,"end_date":"2027-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":9.15237061816748,"prob_history":[8.0,8.0,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,4.0,4.0,4.0,8.0,14.000000000000002,8.0,null,8.0,null,null,null,5.0,null,4.0],"spike":{"pos":13.071821101666666,"peak_prob":40.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-KATS","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26","question":"Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?","group_item_title":"KATSEYE","event_title":"Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":["United States","Canada","Mexico"],"prob":7.000000000000001,"d_prob":-1.9999999999999991,"vol_24hr":495.36,"normalized_vol":12.298686981201172,"end_date":"2027-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":5.391593551780601,"prob_history":[9.0,9.0,null,null,null,9.0,9.0,9.0,null,null,9.0,9.0,9.0,50.0,2.0,50.0,50.0,48.0,49.0,49.0,null,7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001],"spike":{"pos":16.249849708611112,"peak_prob":50.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-JAY","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26","question":"Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?","group_item_title":"JAY-Z","event_title":"Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":3.0,"d_prob":-2.0,"vol_24hr":330.0,"normalized_vol":10.745490074157715,"end_date":"2027-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-the-world-cup-final-halftime-show/kxworldcuphalftime-26","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":5.039655987551438,"prob_history":[5.0,5.0,41.0,41.0,6.0,11.0,11.0,null,null,null,null,8.0,8.0,null,null,null,null,8.0,null,null,null,null,null,3.0],"spike":{"pos":2.740535317222222,"peak_prob":41.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-JOD","src":"ka","event_id":"KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27","question":"Will Jodie Comer be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?","group_item_title":"Jodie Comer","event_title":"The White Lotus S4: Cast","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":19.0,"d_prob":-30.0,"vol_24hr":1051.01,"normalized_vol":15.455357551574707,"end_date":"2027-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxactorwhitelotus/the-white-lotus-s4-cast/kxactorwhitelotus-27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxactorwhitelotus/the-white-lotus-s4-cast/kxactorwhitelotus-27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":90.66059604217926,"prob_history":[7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001,49.0,13.0,null,null,53.0,53.0,null,53.0,53.0,53.0,53.0,53.0,53.0,36.0,10.0,19.0,19.0,19.0,null,19.0,19.0],"spike":{"pos":14.325137165833333,"peak_prob":53.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"predict","market_id":"477175","src":"pr","event_id":"133505","question":"Will Anthropic make a Mythos-class model publicly available again before July?","group_item_title":"Will Anthropic make a Mythos-class model publicly available again before July?","event_title":"Will Anthropic make a Mythos-class model publicly available again before July?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":19.5,"d_prob":-23.049999999999997,"vol_24hr":3812.959999999992,"normalized_vol":37.230560302734375,"end_date":"2026-07-01T04:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://predict.fun/market/will-anthropic-make-a-mythos-class-model-public-again-before-july","event_url":"https://predict.fun/market/will-anthropic-make-a-mythos-class-model-public-again-before-july","image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-anthropic-make-a-mythos-class-model-public-again-before-july-will-anthropic-make-a-mythos-class-model-publicly-available-again-before-july","event_image":"https://static.predict.fun/will-anthropic-make-a-mythos-class-model-public-again-before-july","spike_kind":"prob","score":82.55071988745209,"prob_history":[42.55,null,42.55,42.55,39.050000000000004,null,30.55,30.55,null,30.5,30.85,30.85,null,30.4,30.3,30.3,null,30.3,30.25,24.8,null,24.0,20.549999999999997,19.5],"spike":{"pos":2.635861398611111,"peak_prob":42.55},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWCFIRSTSONG-26JUL20-SWI","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWCFIRSTSONG-26JUL20","question":"Will SWIM be the first song performed by any of Madonna, Shakira, or BTS (any member of BTS) during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?","group_item_title":"SWIM","event_title":"Soccer World Cup Final Halftime Show: First Song","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":24.0,"d_prob":19.0,"vol_24hr":3877.09,"normalized_vol":21.794095993041992,"end_date":"2026-07-27T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcfirstsong/soccer-world-cup-final-halftime-show-first-song/kxwcfirstsong-26jul20","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcfirstsong/soccer-world-cup-final-halftime-show-first-song/kxwcfirstsong-26jul20","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":68.18373978958155,"prob_history":[5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,4.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,4.0,5.0,4.0,6.0,52.0,20.0,24.0,26.0,26.0,26.0,24.0,24.0,null,24.0],"spike":{"pos":13.69932645,"peak_prob":52.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWCFIRSTSONG-26JUL20-DAI","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWCFIRSTSONG-26JUL20","question":"Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by any of Madonna, Shakira, or BTS (any member of BTS) during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?","group_item_title":"Dai Dai","event_title":"Soccer World Cup Final Halftime Show: First Song","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":44.0,"d_prob":11.0,"vol_24hr":2372.16,"normalized_vol":19.280405044555664,"end_date":"2026-07-27T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcfirstsong/soccer-world-cup-final-halftime-show-first-song/kxwcfirstsong-26jul20","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcfirstsong/soccer-world-cup-final-halftime-show-first-song/kxwcfirstsong-26jul20","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":37.128597215848295,"prob_history":[33.0,33.0,null,33.0,33.0,7.000000000000001,26.0,13.0,31.0,34.0,27.0,46.0,63.0,54.0,18.0,48.0,47.0,34.0,34.0,41.0,41.0,44.0,44.0,44.0],"spike":{"pos":4.710361588888889,"peak_prob":7.000000000000001},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2363853","src":"pm","event_id":"528020","question":"Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"Megyn Kelly","event_title":"Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Culture"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":11.5,"d_prob":-28.5,"vol_24hr":207.32635,"normalized_vol":10.043848037719727,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-megyn-kelly-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-megyn-kelly-by-april-30-2026--n8xAhaK3H_1.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-may-31-sAuR7oCIPSvP.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":66.08420983763759,"prob_history":[40.0,41.0,41.0,35.5,34.0,27.500000000000004,19.0,13.5,13.0,13.5,14.000000000000002,14.499999999999998,14.000000000000002,13.5,12.0,11.5,11.5,11.5,null,null,11.5,12.5,12.5,11.5],"spike":{"pos":1.9866991827777778,"peak_prob":41.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2363855","src":"pm","event_id":"528020","question":"Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"Alex Jones","event_title":"Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Culture"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":8.0,"d_prob":-15.5,"vol_24hr":396.88490099999996,"normalized_vol":12.625835418701172,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-alex-jones-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-alex-jones-by-april-30-2026-n_tDukMT82r8.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-may-31-sAuR7oCIPSvP.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":40.29624061112834,"prob_history":[22.5,9.0,9.5,null,null,9.0,7.000000000000001,6.5,6.0,5.5,8.5,9.5,9.5,9.5,9.5,10.5,11.0,8.0,10.0,10.5,10.5,10.5,10.0,8.0],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":23.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2363872","src":"pm","event_id":"528020","question":"Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"Jimmy Kimmel","event_title":"Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Culture"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":41.0,"d_prob":1.0,"vol_24hr":2388.1503969999994,"normalized_vol":21.319467544555664,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-jimmy-kimmel-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-donald-trump-publicly-insult-jimmy-kimmel-by-may-31-2026-MjnKM8tAwbbb.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-may-31-sAuR7oCIPSvP.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":3.37824348944486,"prob_history":[35.5,40.5,54.0,55.00000000000001,54.0,63.0,42.0,42.0,47.0,44.5,43.0,42.5,42.5,41.5,41.0,41.5,41.0,41.0,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,43.5,41.0],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":63.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517838","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"neexcsgo\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"neexcsgo","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.15,"d_prob":-27.800000000000004,"vol_24hr":224.52,"normalized_vol":10.344430923461914,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-neexcsgo-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133834","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":65.41854474760659,"prob_history":[0.15,27.950000000000003,1.95,23.549999999999997,8.05,1.3,0.25,null,null,null,0.25,0.25,null,18.05,20.599999999999998,25.900000000000002,23.75,34.8,32.35,16.150000000000002,19.400000000000002,2.4,0.95,0.15],"spike":{"pos":16.274035686944444,"peak_prob":37.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517840","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"adinross\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"adinross","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-26.35,"vol_24hr":229.62000000000003,"normalized_vol":10.42999267578125,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-adinross-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133836","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":62.26233510159705,"prob_history":[3.55,3.55,3.55,3.55,3.55,25.5,1.0999999999999999,1.4000000000000001,1.55,37.9,40.2,22.400000000000002,4.3,3.6999999999999997,3.6999999999999997,3.6999999999999997,25.8,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,38.0,15.35,0.25],"spike":{"pos":9.2328912925,"peak_prob":40.300000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517827","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"absi\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"absi","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":90.7,"d_prob":14.200000000000003,"vol_24hr":554.369935,"normalized_vol":14.0717134475708,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-absi-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133823","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":38.97306958982781,"prob_history":[76.5,75.5,76.5,75.0,75.0,76.5,76.5,72.5,74.0,74.5,71.5,71.0,72.0,71.5,69.0,72.5,72.5,71.0,71.0,70.0,73.5,74.5,96.1,90.7],"spike":{"pos":13.496771475555555,"peak_prob":69.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517833","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"rybsonloi\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"rybsonloi","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":1.15,"d_prob":-8.9,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-rybsonloi-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133829","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":20.944203921953086,"prob_history":[9.5,19.15,12.5,11.75,11.15,4.7,4.05,16.900000000000002,1.6500000000000001,23.1,4.3999999999999995,3.8,4.15,4.7,4.1000000000000005,4.7,4.25,20.95,17.349999999999998,39.45,28.1,23.849999999999998,17.150000000000002,1.15],"spike":{"pos":18.40294907222222,"peak_prob":39.45},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517835","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"spreen\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"spreen","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.5,"d_prob":-6.2,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-spreen-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133831","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":14.590344305180801,"prob_history":[19.5,3.65,7.1499999999999995,3.55,19.400000000000002,6.950000000000001,1.0999999999999999,1.6,1.6,40.050000000000004,40.050000000000004,40.35,39.2,40.400000000000006,40.400000000000006,40.2,40.300000000000004,40.2,40.1,39.900000000000006,40.1,15.8,0.5,0.5],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":40.400000000000006},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517829","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"sxb\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"sxb","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.05,"d_prob":-4.75,"vol_24hr":219.51999999999998,"normalized_vol":10.259001731872559,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-sxb-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133825","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":11.131377923084349,"prob_history":[4.8,4.8,4.8,4.8,4.8,4.8,4.8,4.05,1.6,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,null,null,null,null,4.05,4.8500000000000005,4.8,3.15,0.05],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":34.699999999999996},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517821","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"maherco\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"maherco","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.2,"d_prob":-4.35,"vol_24hr":319.57,"normalized_vol":11.730859756469727,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-maherco-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133817","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":10.900764515850017,"prob_history":[4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,1.6500000000000001,1.7000000000000002,4.65,4.7,4.65,null,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,40.35,30.9,24.95,0.2],"spike":{"pos":19.845404637222224,"peak_prob":40.35},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517823","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"trainwreckstv\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"trainwreckstv","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.15,"d_prob":-4.6,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-trainwreckstv-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133819","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":10.825094161908336,"prob_history":[13.05,9.4,3.35,12.35,8.1,3.25,4.25,3.2,1.4000000000000001,18.7,3.05,29.5,38.85,24.4,3.8,39.75,32.4,27.55,19.25,3.15,38.800000000000004,25.0,6.5,0.15],"spike":{"pos":16.274035686944444,"peak_prob":40.150000000000006},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517831","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"odablock\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"odablock","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-2.5,"vol_24hr":219.52,"normalized_vol":10.259001731872559,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-odablock-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133827","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":5.858619959518078,"prob_history":[19.650000000000002,34.849999999999994,26.5,19.400000000000002,2.7,2.65,1.05,1.15,1.6,21.0,39.75,19.75,38.5,38.85,34.050000000000004,21.05,39.25,33.0,16.05,34.9,40.25,37.85,35.85,0.25],"spike":{"pos":19.845404637222224,"peak_prob":40.25},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517826","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"westcol\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"westcol","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":0.8500000000000001,"d_prob":-2.0,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-westcol-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133822","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":4.706562679090581,"prob_history":[2.85,14.45,2.85,25.5,7.3999999999999995,2.7,2.35,2.65,1.05,1.05,1.05,1.05,1.05,32.0,37.0,18.7,39.25,39.2,40.25,38.95,39.75,5.25,20.45,0.8500000000000001],"spike":{"pos":12.123424369722223,"peak_prob":40.35},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517822","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"davooxeneize\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"davooxeneize","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.5499999999999999,"d_prob":-1.35,"vol_24hr":259.51,"normalized_vol":10.902477264404297,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-davooxeneize-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133818","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":3.261362938499828,"prob_history":[27.3,4.1000000000000005,21.75,2.35,2.45,2.7,2.5,2.9499999999999997,1.5,3.55,4.8,4.05,2.8000000000000003,4.3,3.65,3.65,4.15,4.15,3.55,2.9000000000000004,4.75,4.05,0.95,0.5499999999999999],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":27.3},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517834","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"lacobraaa\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"lacobraaa","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":2.4,"d_prob":1.3499999999999999,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-lacobraaa-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133830","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":3.176929808386142,"prob_history":[2.55,21.65,24.25,2.35,4.05,1.95,0.5499999999999999,0.75,0.75,30.349999999999998,16.7,19.45,31.25,31.95,3.75,33.4,31.45,4.9,16.150000000000002,21.349999999999998,35.6,30.25,1.8499999999999999,2.4],"spike":{"pos":16.274035686944444,"peak_prob":37.35},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517825","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"n3on\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"n3on","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-0.8499999999999999,"vol_24hr":219.52,"normalized_vol":10.259001731872559,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-n3on-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133821","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":1.9919307862361464,"prob_history":[22.5,19.1,3.55,3.55,3.55,3.55,3.55,1.35,1.55,23.7,4.15,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,20.1,16.650000000000002,0.7000000000000001,0.25],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":39.6},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517837","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"roshtein\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"roshtein","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.3,"d_prob":-0.7999999999999998,"vol_24hr":224.57,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-roshtein-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133833","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":1.882625071636232,"prob_history":[4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,1.15,1.7500000000000002,4.05,4.05,4.05,null,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,20.3,4.05,1.6500000000000001,0.3],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":25.8},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517824","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"korekore_ch\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"korekore_ch","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-0.8,"vol_24hr":219.52,"normalized_vol":10.259001731872559,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-korekore_ch-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133820","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":1.8747583870457853,"prob_history":[3.8,2.25,2.1999999999999997,2.1999999999999997,2.25,3.55,1.05,1.15,1.7000000000000002,39.35,33.35,19.75,2.25,19.5,35.05,20.150000000000002,38.7,37.6,36.55,39.95,19.3,34.8,32.35,0.25],"spike":{"pos":18.40294907222222,"peak_prob":39.95},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517839","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"baianotv\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"baianotv","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":["Brazil"],"prob":0.8,"d_prob":-0.25,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-baianotv-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133835","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":0.5883203348863226,"prob_history":[31.4,19.35,3.0,2.9499999999999997,2.3,3.55,1.05,1.2,1.7500000000000002,36.15,28.9,20.849999999999998,31.35,3.4000000000000004,22.8,19.8,31.5,25.650000000000002,21.9,2.0,2.0,2.0,1.0999999999999999,0.8],"spike":{"pos":8.301429979444444,"peak_prob":36.15},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517830","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"eray\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"eray","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.5,"d_prob":-0.09999999999999998,"vol_24hr":231.53000000000003,"normalized_vol":10.461639404296875,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-eray-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133826","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":0.23664789916085938,"prob_history":[2.45,25.05,1.6500000000000001,1.6500000000000001,0.7000000000000001,1.25,1.4000000000000001,0.44999999999999996,0.5,0.8500000000000001,0.6,20.150000000000002,19.75,26.1,26.55,0.6,2.9499999999999997,0.6,2.55,22.15,4.8500000000000005,23.849999999999998,30.85,0.5],"spike":{"pos":21.512798720833334,"peak_prob":30.85},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517836","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"3mr\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"3mr","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.6,"d_prob":-0.050000000000000044,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-3mr-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133832","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":0.11766406697726463,"prob_history":[2.6,17.0,19.85,2.55,3.45,2.4,31.900000000000002,0.6,0.7000000000000001,15.65,4.3,37.8,21.2,3.8,25.650000000000002,21.55,17.599999999999998,21.25,3.55,4.3999999999999995,38.1,28.849999999999998,29.95,0.6],"spike":{"pos":19.845404637222224,"peak_prob":38.1},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXCHOPPEDCASTAWAYS-26DEC31-JEA","src":"ka","event_id":"KXCHOPPEDCASTAWAYS-26DEC31","question":"Will Jean-Paul Bourgeois win Chopped Castaways: Season 1?","group_item_title":"Jean-Paul Bourgeois","event_title":"Chopped Castaways S1: Winner","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":15.0,"d_prob":-20.0,"vol_24hr":1415.27,"normalized_vol":16.80434226989746,"end_date":"2027-01-07T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchoppedcastaways/chopped-castaways-s1-winner/kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchoppedcastaways/chopped-castaways-s1-winner/kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":63.02292111696388,"prob_history":[35.0,null,null,11.0,11.0,11.0,11.0,8.0,28.000000000000004,8.0,8.0,8.0,6.0,6.0,6.0,6.0,10.0,15.0,15.0,15.0,15.0,15.0,null,15.0],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":35.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFEATURE-26PET-WEE","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFEATURE-26PET","question":"Will The Weeknd be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'?","group_item_title":"The Weeknd","event_title":"Who will be featured on Ariana Grande's album petal?","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":37.0,"d_prob":27.0,"vol_24hr":190.87,"normalized_vol":8.820616722106934,"end_date":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeature/who-will-be-featured-on-ariana-grandes-album-petal/kxfeature-26pet","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeature/who-will-be-featured-on-ariana-grandes-album-petal/kxfeature-26pet","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":61.641191039951394,"prob_history":[10.0,10.0,10.0,10.0,10.0,null,38.0,38.0,35.0,35.0,28.000000000000004,28.000000000000004,35.0,35.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,37.0,37.0,37.0,null,null,null,37.0],"spike":{"pos":3.4046934875,"peak_prob":10.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXLIUSAELIMINATIONW-26JUN26B-ANI","src":"ka","event_id":"KXLIUSAELIMINATIONW-26JUN26B","question":"Will Aniya be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jun 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"Aniya","event_title":"Love Island USA Week 4: Elimination","cat":"Culture","categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":23.0,"d_prob":15.0,"vol_24hr":8128.98,"normalized_vol":25.8736572265625,"end_date":"2026-07-03T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxliusaeliminationw/love-island-usa-week-4-elimination/kxliusaeliminationw-26jun26b","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxliusaeliminationw/love-island-usa-week-4-elimination/kxliusaeliminationw-26jun26b","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":58.65134215826467,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,13.0,11.0,15.0,8.0,8.0,8.0,7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001,9.0,9.0,13.0,33.0,35.0,18.0,20.0,16.0,28.000000000000004,23.0],"spike":{"pos":13.071821101666666,"peak_prob":6.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"Economy":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.3","src":"ka","event_id":"KXCPI-26JUN","question":"Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in June 2026?","group_item_title":"Above -0.3%","event_title":"CPI in June","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"prob":86.0,"d_prob":34.0,"vol_24hr":3305.0,"normalized_vol":20.960309982299805,"end_date":"2026-10-13T13:56:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpi/cpi-in-june/kxcpi-26jun","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpi/cpi-in-june/kxcpi-26jun","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":119.65629687400458,"prob_history":[52.0,52.0,52.0,52.0,52.0,52.0,52.0,52.0,52.0,52.0,52.0,null,52.0,52.0,91.0,91.0,91.0,91.0,91.0,null,91.0,null,91.0,86.0],"spike":{"pos":12.435732813333333,"peak_prob":52.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXMUSKNW-26JUN30-T1100","src":"ka","event_id":"KXMUSKNW-26JUN30","question":"Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $1.10 trillion?","group_item_title":"Above $1.10 trillion","event_title":"Elon Musk net worth on June 30 (Bloomberg)","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"prob":56.99999999999999,"d_prob":-23.000000000000007,"vol_24hr":1858.6,"normalized_vol":18.089466094970703,"end_date":"2026-07-08T00:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmusknw/elon-musk-net-worth-on-june-30-bloomberg/kxmusknw-26jun30","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmusknw/elon-musk-net-worth-on-june-30-bloomberg/kxmusknw-26jun30","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":75.19664936275416,"prob_history":[80.0,80.0,80.0,76.0,77.0,80.0,80.0,80.0,82.0,83.0,83.0,83.0,83.0,null,74.0,72.0,72.0,80.0,80.0,85.0,84.0,84.0,84.0,56.99999999999999],"spike":{"pos":18.871099934444445,"peak_prob":85.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXMUSKNW-26JUN30-T1200","src":"ka","event_id":"KXMUSKNW-26JUN30","question":"Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $1.20 trillion?","group_item_title":"Above $1.20 trillion","event_title":"Elon Musk net worth on June 30 (Bloomberg)","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"prob":42.0,"d_prob":-14.999999999999993,"vol_24hr":5641.29,"normalized_vol":23.81683349609375,"end_date":"2026-07-08T00:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmusknw/elon-musk-net-worth-on-june-30-bloomberg/kxmusknw-26jun30","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmusknw/elon-musk-net-worth-on-june-30-bloomberg/kxmusknw-26jun30","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":56.271831061116096,"prob_history":[56.99999999999999,57.99999999999999,55.00000000000001,57.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,57.99999999999999,63.0,62.0,64.0,65.0,61.0,62.0,62.0,61.0,52.0,43.0,52.0,63.0,48.0,27.0,42.0,42.0,42.0,42.0],"spike":{"pos":9.240171664444444,"peak_prob":65.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXCREDITC-26JUL01-T3.75","src":"ka","event_id":"KXCREDITC-26JUL01","question":"Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q2 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 3.75%","event_title":"SOFR at end of Q2 2026","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":22.0,"d_prob":19.0,"vol_24hr":1824.64,"normalized_vol":18.000999450683594,"end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcreditc/sofr-at-end-of-q2-2026/kxcreditc-26jul01","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcreditc/sofr-at-end-of-q2-2026/kxcreditc-26jul01","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":61.96688770986786,"prob_history":[3.0,3.0,3.0,null,null,null,null,1.0,null,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,5.0,null,null,5.0,22.0],"spike":{"pos":12.435732813333333,"peak_prob":1.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXSKEXPYOY-26JUL01-T53.0","src":"ka","event_id":"KXSKEXPYOY-26JUL01","question":"Will South Korea exports YoY for June 2026 be above 53.0%?","group_item_title":"Above 53.0%","event_title":"South Korea exports YoY for June","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["South Korea"],"prob":53.0,"d_prob":-24.0,"vol_24hr":234.69,"normalized_vol":9.524423599243164,"end_date":"2026-07-09T01:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxskexpyoy/south-korea-exports-yoy-for-june/kxskexpyoy-26jul01","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxskexpyoy/south-korea-exports-yoy-for-june/kxskexpyoy-26jul01","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":56.936187753656284,"prob_history":[77.0,77.0,77.0,77.0,77.0,77.0,77.0,null,77.0,77.0,77.0,null,53.0,53.0,53.0,null,53.0,null,53.0,null,null,null,null,53.0],"spike":{"pos":9.890418764166666,"peak_prob":77.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXSKEXPYOY-26JUL01-T54.0","src":"ka","event_id":"KXSKEXPYOY-26JUL01","question":"Will South Korea exports YoY for June 2026 be above 54.0%?","group_item_title":"Above 54.0%","event_title":"South Korea exports YoY for June","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["South Korea"],"prob":41.0,"d_prob":-20.0,"vol_24hr":174.94,"normalized_vol":8.532143592834473,"end_date":"2026-07-09T01:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxskexpyoy/south-korea-exports-yoy-for-june/kxskexpyoy-26jul01","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxskexpyoy/south-korea-exports-yoy-for-june/kxskexpyoy-26jul01","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":44.90729175269527,"prob_history":[61.0,61.0,61.0,61.0,61.0,41.0,41.0,null,null,41.0,41.0,null,41.0,null,41.0,null,null,41.0,41.0,41.0,41.0,41.0,41.0,41.0],"spike":{"pos":4.059279649444444,"peak_prob":61.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXSKEXPYOY-26JUL01-T55.0","src":"ka","event_id":"KXSKEXPYOY-26JUL01","question":"Will South Korea exports YoY for June 2026 be above 55.0%?","group_item_title":"Above 55.0%","event_title":"South Korea exports YoY for June","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["South Korea"],"prob":37.0,"d_prob":-17.0,"vol_24hr":311.0,"normalized_vol":10.527643203735352,"end_date":"2026-07-09T01:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxskexpyoy/south-korea-exports-yoy-for-june/kxskexpyoy-26jul01","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxskexpyoy/south-korea-exports-yoy-for-june/kxskexpyoy-26jul01","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":42.400628098313526,"prob_history":[54.0,54.0,54.0,54.0,null,null,54.0,null,null,null,54.0,null,37.0,null,37.0,null,null,37.0,37.0,37.0,37.0,37.0,37.0,37.0],"spike":{"pos":9.890418764166666,"peak_prob":54.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXSKEXPYOY-26JUL01-T52.0","src":"ka","event_id":"KXSKEXPYOY-26JUL01","question":"Will South Korea exports YoY for June 2026 be above 52.0%?","group_item_title":"Above 52.0%","event_title":"South Korea exports YoY for June","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["South Korea"],"prob":63.0,"d_prob":-21.0,"vol_24hr":101.93,"normalized_vol":6.8544769287109375,"end_date":"2026-07-09T01:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxskexpyoy/south-korea-exports-yoy-for-june/kxskexpyoy-26jul01","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxskexpyoy/south-korea-exports-yoy-for-june/kxskexpyoy-26jul01","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":42.263381428292554,"prob_history":[84.0,84.0,84.0,84.0,84.0,84.0,84.0,84.0,null,null,84.0,null,63.0,63.0,63.0,63.0,63.0,63.0,63.0,null,null,null,null,63.0],"spike":{"pos":9.890418764166666,"peak_prob":84.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXUST2-26JUN30-T4.20","src":"ka","event_id":"KXUST2-26JUN30","question":"Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.20%?","group_item_title":"Above 4.20%","event_title":"How high will the 2Y US Treasury climb by month-end?","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":64.0,"d_prob":19.0,"vol_24hr":715.77,"normalized_vol":13.79787540435791,"end_date":"2026-07-07T21:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxust2/how-high-will-the-2y-us-treasury-climb-by-month-end/kxust2-26jun30","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxust2/how-high-will-the-2y-us-treasury-climb-by-month-end/kxust2-26jun30","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":54.252216577840386,"prob_history":[45.0,45.0,45.0,45.0,45.0,null,45.0,45.0,null,null,45.0,60.0,64.0,null,64.0,63.0,63.0,63.0,null,null,null,64.0,null,64.0],"spike":{"pos":9.240171664444444,"peak_prob":45.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"limitless","market_id":"75398","src":"li","event_id":"10001704","question":"↓ 10,000","group_item_title":"↓ 10,000","event_title":"What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United Arab Emirates"],"prob":52.400000000000006,"d_prob":19.1,"vol_24hr":114.412578,"normalized_vol":14.262396812438965,"end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/10000-1774528200340","event_url":"https://limitless.exchange/markets/what-level-will-the-dubai-real-estate-index-hit-in-2026-1774527579884","image":null,"event_image":"https://cdn.limitless.exchange/groups-logo/10001704/6f8a33db-640e-46a4-a79a-29991a8af3a1.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":39.3890350137417,"prob_history":[33.300000000000004,33.300000000000004,42.6,51.0,51.0,51.0,51.0,51.0,51.6,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006,52.400000000000006],"spike":{"pos":1.0987842133333332,"peak_prob":33.300000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.9","src":"ka","event_id":"KXCPIYOY-26JUN","question":"Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in June 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 3.9%","event_title":"Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"prob":22.0,"d_prob":-11.0,"vol_24hr":2395.88,"normalized_vol":19.32978057861328,"end_date":"2026-10-13T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy/inflation-in-june-2026-cpi-yoy/kxcpiyoy-26jun","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy/inflation-in-june-2026-cpi-yoy/kxcpiyoy-26jun","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":37.17610920746729,"prob_history":[33.0,30.0,30.0,30.0,31.0,31.0,31.0,27.0,33.0,33.0,33.0,33.0,45.0,33.0,31.0,31.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,21.0,22.0],"spike":{"pos":11.815044156944444,"peak_prob":45.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXBRAZILINF-26JUN-T5.10","src":"ka","event_id":"KXBRAZILINF-26JUN","question":"Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.10% in Jun 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 5.10%","event_title":"Brazil inflation rate in June","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["Brazil"],"prob":13.0,"d_prob":-15.000000000000004,"vol_24hr":215.1,"normalized_vol":9.224222183227539,"end_date":"2026-07-17T11:55:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbrazilinf/brazil-inflation-rate-in-june/kxbrazilinf-26jun","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbrazilinf/brazil-inflation-rate-in-june/kxbrazilinf-26jun","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":35.01982150324863,"prob_history":[28.000000000000004,28.000000000000004,28.000000000000004,17.0,14.000000000000002,17.0,17.0,17.0,17.0,17.0,17.0,null,17.0,17.0,13.0,13.0,13.0,13.0,null,null,null,13.0,null,13.0],"spike":{"pos":2.094440130555556,"peak_prob":28.000000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXNHSALES-26JUN24-T680000","src":"ka","event_id":"KXNHSALES-26JUN24","question":"Will US new home sales for May 2026 be above 680,000?","group_item_title":"Above 680,000","event_title":"US new home sales for May","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":28.000000000000004,"d_prob":-12.999999999999996,"vol_24hr":480.92,"normalized_vol":12.181974411010742,"end_date":"2026-07-01T15:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhsales/us-new-home-sales-for-may/kxnhsales-26jun24","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhsales/us-new-home-sales-for-may/kxnhsales-26jun24","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":34.87867435239963,"prob_history":[41.0,34.0,null,34.0,34.0,34.0,null,33.0,33.0,34.0,34.0,32.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,34.0,30.0,30.0,35.0,35.0,35.0,31.0,28.000000000000004],"spike":{"pos":14.95413452861111,"peak_prob":9.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.9","src":"ka","event_id":"KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26JUN","question":"CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?","group_item_title":"Exactly 3.9%","event_title":"CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?","cat":"Economy","categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"prob":25.0,"d_prob":9.0,"vol_24hr":430.68,"normalized_vol":11.751655578613281,"end_date":"2026-10-13T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcpiyoy/cpi-year-over-year-in-jun-2026/kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jun","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcpiyoy/cpi-year-over-year-in-jun-2026/kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jun","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":23.71645735192629,"prob_history":[16.0,19.0,19.0,19.0,19.0,19.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,26.0,27.0,24.0,24.0,24.0,24.0,42.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0],"spike":{"pos":14.95413452861111,"peak_prob":42.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"opinion","market_id":"1345","src":"op","event_id":"78","question":"0 (0 bps)","group_item_title":null,"event_title":"How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","cat":"Business","categories":["Business","Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":55.800000000000004,"d_prob":4.600000000000001,"vol_24hr":1257.2289999984205,"normalized_vol":22.186649322509766,"end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","event_url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","image":null,"event_image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0x395262af55dbae5f1a7c3e174983dd9d38c830997a54ed4d0f36baeb49f366af","spike_kind":"prob","score":14.258894577218552,"prob_history":[51.2,53.6,53.6,53.6,59.0,53.6,53.6,53.6,53.6,53.6,53.6,53.6,62.0,62.0,62.0,62.0,62.0,67.10000000000001,68.10000000000001,68.10000000000001,68.10000000000001,68.10000000000001,61.9,55.800000000000004],"spike":{"pos":21.080908455,"peak_prob":73.9},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"Finance":[{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:united-kingdom","cluster_label":"United Kingdom","cluster_slug":"united-kingdom","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":28660.085526000006,"score":168.73952302768618,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632928","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Wes Streeting","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":72.5,"d_prob":44.5,"vol_24hr":6191.975956000002,"normalized_vol":26.860126495361328,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429784","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429784-HZQFROeXOQN3.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":168.73952302768618,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,46.0,36.0,null,null,null,28.000000000000004,26.5,28.000000000000004,26.5,27.500000000000004,5.5,18.0,25.5,78.5,72.5],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":5.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632931","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Torsten Bell","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-41.55,"vol_24hr":1701.4300000000003,"normalized_vol":19.502351760864258,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-torsten-bell-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429787","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tb-d89e8dc265.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":134.25092790936307,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,21.0,42.5,41.0,null,43.0,41.8,34.25,41.699999999999996,3.15,2.25,2.15,1.4000000000000001,26.200000000000003,0.4,0.25],"spike":{"pos":9.2328912925,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632926","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Ed Miliband","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":10.5,"d_prob":-34.5,"vol_24hr":4560.657548,"normalized_vol":25.011999130249023,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-ed-miliband-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429782","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ed-miliband-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429782-0HQne9KD8L7t.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":126.23973242139242,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,46.0,50.5,null,null,null,45.0,47.5,null,74.0,33.5,33.5,33.5,33.0,16.0,10.5],"spike":{"pos":16.985680348611112,"peak_prob":74.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632930","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Yvette Cooper","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":3.65,"d_prob":-35.25,"vol_24hr":3043.9046700000004,"normalized_vol":22.669631958007812,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-yvette-cooper-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429786","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-yvette-cooper-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429786-F0Ysy7Db2I35.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":122.79597293459949,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,20.5,43.0,36.9,null,41.25,38.9,34.1,39.300000000000004,3.0,28.599999999999998,28.050000000000004,25.95,24.6,0.05,3.65],"spike":{"pos":7.578343704444444,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632927","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Darren Jones","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":3.0,"d_prob":-35.0,"vol_24hr":1871.1868350000004,"normalized_vol":20.003856658935547,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-darren-jones-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429783","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-darren-jones-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429783-QVb4Kogpht6K.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":114.53222154532423,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,21.0,43.5,36.9,36.85,36.7,38.0,36.4,36.15,3.5999999999999996,31.25,26.85,10.299999999999999,2.4,2.35,3.0],"spike":{"pos":9.2328912925,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632932","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"No next Chancellor in 2026","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":2.8000000000000003,"d_prob":-29.7,"vol_24hr":1645.4939780000002,"normalized_vol":19.327594757080078,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-there-be-no-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429788","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":95.5318363549825,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,44.0,44.5,43.5,43.0,41.5,32.5,35.5,38.5,34.0,11.5,8.0,7.000000000000001,6.0,2.7,2.8000000000000003],"spike":{"pos":9.944424294166666,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632925","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Pat McFadden","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":8.0,"d_prob":-26.0,"vol_24hr":2139.183235,"normalized_vol":20.72051429748535,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-pat-mcfadden-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429781","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-pat-mcfadden-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429781-l5LqRotAiPAC.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":86.59172490058842,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,44.5,44.0,43.5,null,41.5,41.0,34.0,36.5,37.0,32.0,6.5,5.0,7.5,9.5,5.0,8.0],"spike":{"pos":9.2328912925,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2632929","src":"pm","event_id":"619832","question":"Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?","group_item_title":"Shabana Mahmood","event_title":"Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Finance"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":2.0,"d_prob":-15.0,"vol_24hr":1666.475478,"normalized_vol":19.393739700317383,"end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178/will-shabana-mahmood-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429785","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-shabana-mahmood-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429785-f0ScPEbQ8gFe.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/next-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-in-2026-20260621005319178-QSeuCgubaV-w.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":48.330891838100825,"prob_history":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,21.0,20.0,17.5,null,null,17.0,17.0,7.5,null,7.5,6.0,5.5,3.55,3.55,1.5,2.0],"spike":{"pos":7.578343704444444,"peak_prob":21.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2252168","src":"pm","event_id":"481681","question":"Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?","group_item_title":"Wes Streeting","event_title":"Candidates in next Labour leadership election?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":1.05,"d_prob":-13.449999999999998,"vol_24hr":5126.664327,"normalized_vol":25.711265563964844,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election/will-wes-streeting-be-a-candidate-in-the-next-labour-party-leadership-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election-Z7PIZqj6ex0e.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election-Z7PIZqj6ex0e.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":49.89841844732178,"prob_history":[14.499999999999998,14.499999999999998,23.0,27.500000000000004,22.5,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,23.0,22.5,null,17.0,6.0,3.3000000000000003,16.55,25.4,1.0,1.05],"spike":{"pos":2.6905752225,"peak_prob":27.500000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2252171","src":"pm","event_id":"481681","question":"Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?","group_item_title":"Al Carns","event_title":"Candidates in next Labour leadership election?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":9.0,"d_prob":-6.5,"vol_24hr":713.113499,"normalized_vol":15.213584899902344,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election/will-al-carns-be-a-candidate-in-the-next-labour-party-leadership-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election-Z7PIZqj6ex0e.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election-Z7PIZqj6ex0e.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":18.549487077481032,"prob_history":[15.5,17.0,13.5,13.5,17.0,17.5,null,18.0,10.0,10.0,10.0,11.0,11.5,15.5,15.5,15.0,null,15.0,15.0,15.0,16.0,30.5,14.499999999999998,9.0],"spike":{"pos":20.573172875,"peak_prob":30.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-of-the-uk-in-2026-20260621005429784-HZQFROeXOQN3.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFDX-26JUNADV-17200000.0","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFDX-26JUNADV","question":"Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.2 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 17.2 million","event_title":"FedEx avg daily package volume in Q4","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"prob":41.0,"d_prob":-46.0,"vol_24hr":1057.74,"normalized_vol":15.483697891235352,"end_date":"2026-07-23T20:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfdx/fedex-avg-daily-package-volume-in-q4/kxfdx-26junadv","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfdx/fedex-avg-daily-package-volume-in-q4/kxfdx-26junadv","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":139.14030878276364,"prob_history":[86.0,86.0,87.0,87.0,87.0,null,null,null,null,87.0,85.0,85.0,79.0,83.0,71.0,64.0,46.0,41.0,41.0,41.0,41.0,41.0,null,41.0],"spike":{"pos":8.605630426388888,"peak_prob":87.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFDX-26JUNADV-17400000.0","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFDX-26JUNADV","question":"Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.4 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 17.4 million","event_title":"FedEx avg daily package volume in Q4","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"prob":25.0,"d_prob":-42.0,"vol_24hr":1058.83,"normalized_vol":15.488273620605469,"end_date":"2026-07-23T20:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfdx/fedex-avg-daily-package-volume-in-q4/kxfdx-26junadv","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfdx/fedex-avg-daily-package-volume-in-q4/kxfdx-26junadv","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":127.05992076443974,"prob_history":[67.0,67.0,66.0,66.0,65.0,63.0,65.0,65.0,65.0,65.0,57.99999999999999,61.0,61.0,63.0,45.0,45.0,27.0,15.0,15.0,27.0,27.0,17.0,17.0,25.0],"spike":{"pos":0.8018878055555556,"peak_prob":67.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXFDX-26JUNADV-17600000.0","src":"ka","event_id":"KXFDX-26JUNADV","question":"Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.6 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 17.6 million","event_title":"FedEx avg daily package volume in Q4","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"prob":8.0,"d_prob":-26.0,"vol_24hr":1725.76,"normalized_vol":17.735036849975586,"end_date":"2026-07-23T20:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfdx/fedex-avg-daily-package-volume-in-q4/kxfdx-26junadv","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfdx/fedex-avg-daily-package-volume-in-q4/kxfdx-26junadv","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":84.16803147398163,"prob_history":[34.0,32.0,32.0,33.0,33.0,32.0,32.0,33.0,34.0,34.0,32.0,null,30.0,19.0,19.0,19.0,19.0,10.0,6.0,6.0,6.0,6.0,6.0,8.0],"spike":{"pos":8.605630426388888,"peak_prob":34.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI2-4500","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI2","question":"Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 102 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) on TicketData be above $4500 on 3:00PM ET July 15th, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above $4500","event_title":"Get-in price of the World Cup Semi-Final - Mercedes-Benz Stadium","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":50.0,"d_prob":45.0,"vol_24hr":841.0,"normalized_vol":14.482009887695312,"end_date":"2026-10-13T19:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-the-world-cup-semi-final-mercedes-benz-stadium/kxwcprice-26julwcsemi2","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-the-world-cup-semi-final-mercedes-benz-stadium/kxwcprice-26julwcsemi2","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":131.63904411748422,"prob_history":[5.0,null,null,11.0,11.0,null,null,11.0,null,11.0,11.0,null,null,null,null,null,null,56.00000000000001,50.0,50.0,null,50.0,50.0,50.0],"spike":{"pos":2.094440130555556,"peak_prob":5.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXTUDOR-JUN-3799","src":"ka","event_id":"KXTUDOR-JUN","question":"Will the price of the Bezel Tudor Index be Above $3799 at June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"Price to Beat: $3,799","event_title":"Bezel Tudor Index above $3,799 in June?","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"prob":72.0,"d_prob":38.0,"vol_24hr":1230.85,"normalized_vol":16.164348602294922,"end_date":"2026-06-30T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtudor/bezel-tudor-index-above-3799-in-june/kxtudor-jun","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtudor/bezel-tudor-index-above-3799-in-june/kxtudor-jun","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":117.44119745814677,"prob_history":[34.0,34.0,34.0,77.0,77.0,77.0,null,null,77.0,null,null,null,72.0,null,72.0,null,72.0,null,null,null,null,null,null,72.0],"spike":{"pos":1.4525583694444444,"peak_prob":34.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:anthropic","cluster_label":"anthropic","cluster_slug":"anthropic","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":18121.102651,"score":72.33987592129809,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2421094","src":"pm","event_id":"549019","question":"Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31, 2026","event_title":"Anthropic IPO by __?","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"prob":31.5,"d_prob":-17.0,"vol_24hr":17999.593267,"normalized_vol":33.826114654541016,"end_date":"2027-07-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-by/will-anthropic-ipo-by-october-31-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":72.33987592129809,"prob_history":[48.5,48.5,48.5,null,48.5,48.5,48.5,48.0,47.0,46.0,43.0,42.5,null,null,null,40.0,40.5,38.5,null,null,38.5,38.5,38.5,31.5],"spike":{"pos":5.486589910555556,"peak_prob":48.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2364519","src":"pm","event_id":"528268","question":"Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30?","group_item_title":"550.0-600.0k","event_title":"Claude Code Commits End of June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":25.0,"d_prob":17.5,"vol_24hr":121.50938399999998,"normalized_vol":8.145652770996094,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-code-commits-end-of-june/will-claude-code-commits-be-between-550pt0k-and-600pt0k-on-june-30","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-code-commits-end-of-june","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-code-commits-hit-by-may-31-TSCr9rx1m5f1.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-code-commits-hit-by-may-31-TSCr9rx1m5f1.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":36.54296373273526,"prob_history":[7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,null,null,9.0,null,null,null,null,null,10.5,10.5,10.5,14.499999999999998,18.0,17.5,null,25.0],"spike":{"pos":6.1808014855555555,"peak_prob":7.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png"},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-4000","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1","question":"Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $4000 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above $4000","event_title":"Get-in price of World Cup Semi-Final - AT&T Stadium","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":74.0,"d_prob":33.0,"vol_24hr":145.84,"normalized_vol":7.945841312408447,"end_date":"2026-10-11T19:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-world-cup-semi-final-att-stadium/kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-world-cup-semi-final-att-stadium/kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":71.50586440245432,"prob_history":[41.0,41.0,null,60.0,null,54.0,51.0,49.0,50.0,51.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,64.0,64.0,64.0,64.0,68.0,68.0,68.0,68.0,null,74.0],"spike":{"pos":0.8018878055555556,"peak_prob":41.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-4250","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1","question":"Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $4250 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above $4250","event_title":"Get-in price of World Cup Semi-Final - AT&T Stadium","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":20.0,"d_prob":-25.0,"vol_24hr":124.33,"normalized_vol":7.449346542358398,"end_date":"2026-10-11T19:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-world-cup-semi-final-att-stadium/kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-world-cup-semi-final-att-stadium/kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":52.451375991731084,"prob_history":[45.0,45.0,null,60.0,59.0,59.0,59.0,47.0,47.0,47.0,25.0,28.999999999999996,28.999999999999996,28.999999999999996,69.0,69.0,69.0,54.0,62.0,62.0,60.0,60.0,60.0,20.0],"spike":{"pos":15.59167265111111,"peak_prob":69.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-3500","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1","question":"Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $3500 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above $3500","event_title":"Get-in price of World Cup Semi-Final - AT&T Stadium","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":82.0,"d_prob":7.0,"vol_24hr":140.18,"normalized_vol":7.821133613586426,"end_date":"2026-10-11T19:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-world-cup-semi-final-att-stadium/kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-world-cup-semi-final-att-stadium/kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":15.048412242917655,"prob_history":[75.0,75.0,null,76.0,76.0,89.0,87.0,72.0,72.0,null,72.0,72.0,82.0,82.0,82.0,82.0,82.0,40.0,40.0,81.0,81.0,81.0,82.0,82.0],"spike":{"pos":18.212912123888888,"peak_prob":40.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-10500","src":"ka","event_id":"KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL","question":"Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $10500 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?","group_item_title":"Above $10500","event_title":"Get-in price of the World Cup Final?","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"prob":53.0,"d_prob":16.0,"vol_24hr":1590.8,"normalized_vol":17.349895477294922,"end_date":"2026-10-16T19:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-the-world-cup-final/kxwcprice-26julwcfinal","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwcprice/get-in-price-of-the-world-cup-final/kxwcprice-26julwcfinal","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":51.23021600585557,"prob_history":[37.0,37.0,null,54.0,54.0,55.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,null,53.0,null,null,null,null,null,53.0],"spike":{"pos":0.1447701980555556,"peak_prob":37.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXTNOTED-26JUN22-B4.47","src":"ka","event_id":"KXTNOTED-26JUN22","question":"Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.46 and 4.48 on Jun 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"4.46% to 4.48%","event_title":"Treasury 10-year yield on Jun 22, 2026?","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":38.0,"d_prob":17.0,"vol_24hr":163.54,"normalized_vol":8.312475204467773,"end_date":"2026-06-24T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtnoted/treasury-10-year-yield-on-jun-22-2026/kxtnoted-26jun22","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtnoted/treasury-10-year-yield-on-jun-22-2026/kxtnoted-26jun22","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":37.67661538049299,"prob_history":[21.0,21.0,31.0,31.0,32.0,32.0,null,22.0,32.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,27.0,27.0,27.0,27.0,27.0,27.0,33.0,32.0,32.0,32.0,32.0,38.0],"spike":{"pos":0.1447701980555556,"peak_prob":21.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"Science and Technology":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXOAIHARDWARE-27-NECKLACE","src":"ka","event_id":"KXOAIHARDWARE-27","question":"What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?","group_item_title":"Necklace","event_title":"What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":50.0,"d_prob":41.0,"vol_24hr":423.06,"normalized_vol":11.682770729064941,"end_date":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaihardware/what-kind-of-device-will-jony-ive-and-openai-announce/kxoaihardware-27","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaihardware/what-kind-of-device-will-jony-ive-and-openai-announce/kxoaihardware-27","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":107.72451966945485,"prob_history":[9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,9.0,50.0,null,null,null,null,50.0],"spike":{"pos":16.249849708611112,"peak_prob":9.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:science","cluster_label":"Science","cluster_slug":"science","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":704.69,"score":104.94668346213973,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2364477","src":"pm","event_id":"528237","question":"Will 220 to 249 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?","group_item_title":"220–249","event_title":"How many Tornadoes in the US in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":5.5,"d_prob":-40.5,"vol_24hr":389.19,"normalized_vol":12.54358959197998,"end_date":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-june/will-220-to-249-tornadoes-occur-in-the-united-states-in-june-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-june","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-november-W7XLO0OomR-x.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-november-W7XLO0OomR-x.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":104.94668346213973,"prob_history":[46.0,44.0,45.0,44.0,46.0,44.0,43.5,43.5,37.5,33.0,18.0,17.0,16.5,15.5,16.0,17.5,19.0,11.5,5.5,5.5,5.5,null,5.5,5.5],"spike":{"pos":3.3888124669444446,"peak_prob":46.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2436336","src":"pm","event_id":"558795","question":"Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"50%+","event_title":"How far ahead of Google’s quantum benchmark will ECDSA.fail get by June 30?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":60.5,"d_prob":-28.0,"vol_24hr":315.5,"normalized_vol":11.678963661193848,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-far-ahead-of-googles-quantum-benchmark-will-ecdsafail-get-by-june-30/will-ecdsafail-get-at-least-50-ahead-of-googles-classified-circuit-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-far-ahead-of-googles-quantum-benchmark-will-ecdsafail-get-by-june-30","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-far-ahead-of-googles-classified-circuit-will-ecdsafail-get-by-june-30-U8MbSgRFo_o5.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-far-ahead-of-googles-classified-circuit-will-ecdsafail-get-by-june-30-U8MbSgRFo_o5.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":70.01046400189448,"prob_history":[88.5,89.0,88.5,null,88.5,88.5,88.5,88.5,89.0,89.0,73.5,69.5,62.5,62.0,59.5,59.5,60.0,null,60.5,null,null,60.5,60.5,60.5],"spike":{"pos":8.301429979444444,"peak_prob":89.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-november-W7XLO0OomR-x.png"},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN26","src":"ka","event_id":"KXGPT-OPENB","question":"Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jun 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Jun 26, 2026","event_title":"When will OpenAI release GPT-5.6?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":40.0,"d_prob":19.0,"vol_24hr":16146.77,"normalized_vol":29.968093872070312,"end_date":"2026-07-03T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/when-will-openai-release-gpt-56/kxgpt-openb","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/when-will-openai-release-gpt-56/kxgpt-openb","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":79.95413854365805,"prob_history":[21.0,30.0,30.0,22.0,22.0,24.0,23.0,26.0,21.0,21.0,21.0,21.0,51.0,54.0,75.0,48.0,48.0,42.0,42.0,37.0,37.0,36.0,40.0,40.0],"spike":{"pos":13.69932645,"peak_prob":75.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30","src":"ka","event_id":"KXGPT-OPENB","question":"Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jun 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before Jun 30, 2026","event_title":"When will OpenAI release GPT-5.6?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":51.0,"d_prob":19.0,"vol_24hr":13133.68,"normalized_vol":28.70421028137207,"end_date":"2026-07-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/when-will-openai-release-gpt-56/kxgpt-openb","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/when-will-openai-release-gpt-56/kxgpt-openb","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":78.24997043428694,"prob_history":[32.0,34.0,34.0,34.0,36.0,40.0,28.000000000000004,36.0,36.0,36.0,36.0,36.0,62.0,68.0,75.0,47.0,55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,51.0,51.0,51.0],"spike":{"pos":13.69932645,"peak_prob":75.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:anthropic","cluster_label":"anthropic","cluster_slug":"anthropic","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":18121.102651,"score":72.33987592129809,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2421094","src":"pm","event_id":"549019","question":"Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31, 2026","event_title":"Anthropic IPO by __?","cat":"Finance","categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"prob":31.5,"d_prob":-17.0,"vol_24hr":17999.593267,"normalized_vol":33.826114654541016,"end_date":"2027-07-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-by/will-anthropic-ipo-by-october-31-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":72.33987592129809,"prob_history":[48.5,48.5,48.5,null,48.5,48.5,48.5,48.0,47.0,46.0,43.0,42.5,null,null,null,40.0,40.5,38.5,null,null,38.5,38.5,38.5,31.5],"spike":{"pos":5.486589910555556,"peak_prob":48.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2364519","src":"pm","event_id":"528268","question":"Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30?","group_item_title":"550.0-600.0k","event_title":"Claude Code Commits End of June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":25.0,"d_prob":17.5,"vol_24hr":121.50938399999998,"normalized_vol":8.145652770996094,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-code-commits-end-of-june/will-claude-code-commits-be-between-550pt0k-and-600pt0k-on-june-30","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-code-commits-end-of-june","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-code-commits-hit-by-may-31-TSCr9rx1m5f1.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-code-commits-hit-by-may-31-TSCr9rx1m5f1.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":36.54296373273526,"prob_history":[7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,7.5,null,null,9.0,null,null,null,null,null,10.5,10.5,10.5,14.499999999999998,18.0,17.5,null,25.0],"spike":{"pos":6.1808014855555555,"peak_prob":7.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-jdfele1g0krx.png"},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517838","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"neexcsgo\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"neexcsgo","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.15,"d_prob":-27.800000000000004,"vol_24hr":224.52,"normalized_vol":10.344430923461914,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-neexcsgo-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133834","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":65.41854474760659,"prob_history":[0.15,27.950000000000003,1.95,23.549999999999997,8.05,1.3,0.25,null,null,null,0.25,0.25,null,18.05,20.599999999999998,25.900000000000002,23.75,34.8,32.35,16.150000000000002,19.400000000000002,2.4,0.95,0.15],"spike":{"pos":16.274035686944444,"peak_prob":37.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517840","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"adinross\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"adinross","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-26.35,"vol_24hr":229.62000000000003,"normalized_vol":10.42999267578125,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-adinross-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133836","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":62.26233510159705,"prob_history":[3.55,3.55,3.55,3.55,3.55,25.5,1.0999999999999999,1.4000000000000001,1.55,37.9,40.2,22.400000000000002,4.3,3.6999999999999997,3.6999999999999997,3.6999999999999997,25.8,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,38.0,15.35,0.25],"spike":{"pos":9.2328912925,"peak_prob":40.300000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517827","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"absi\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"absi","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":90.7,"d_prob":14.200000000000003,"vol_24hr":554.369935,"normalized_vol":14.0717134475708,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-absi-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133823","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":38.97306958982781,"prob_history":[76.5,75.5,76.5,75.0,75.0,76.5,76.5,72.5,74.0,74.5,71.5,71.0,72.0,71.5,69.0,72.5,72.5,71.0,71.0,70.0,73.5,74.5,96.1,90.7],"spike":{"pos":13.496771475555555,"peak_prob":69.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517833","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"rybsonloi\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"rybsonloi","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":1.15,"d_prob":-8.9,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-rybsonloi-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133829","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":20.944203921953086,"prob_history":[9.5,19.15,12.5,11.75,11.15,4.7,4.05,16.900000000000002,1.6500000000000001,23.1,4.3999999999999995,3.8,4.15,4.7,4.1000000000000005,4.7,4.25,20.95,17.349999999999998,39.45,28.1,23.849999999999998,17.150000000000002,1.15],"spike":{"pos":18.40294907222222,"peak_prob":39.45},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517835","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"spreen\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"spreen","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.5,"d_prob":-6.2,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-spreen-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133831","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":14.590344305180801,"prob_history":[19.5,3.65,7.1499999999999995,3.55,19.400000000000002,6.950000000000001,1.0999999999999999,1.6,1.6,40.050000000000004,40.050000000000004,40.35,39.2,40.400000000000006,40.400000000000006,40.2,40.300000000000004,40.2,40.1,39.900000000000006,40.1,15.8,0.5,0.5],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":40.400000000000006},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517829","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"sxb\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"sxb","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.05,"d_prob":-4.75,"vol_24hr":219.51999999999998,"normalized_vol":10.259001731872559,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-sxb-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133825","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":11.131377923084349,"prob_history":[4.8,4.8,4.8,4.8,4.8,4.8,4.8,4.05,1.6,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,null,null,null,null,4.05,4.8500000000000005,4.8,3.15,0.05],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":34.699999999999996},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517821","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"maherco\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"maherco","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.2,"d_prob":-4.35,"vol_24hr":319.57,"normalized_vol":11.730859756469727,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-maherco-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133817","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":10.900764515850017,"prob_history":[4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,1.6500000000000001,1.7000000000000002,4.65,4.7,4.65,null,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,4.65,40.35,30.9,24.95,0.2],"spike":{"pos":19.845404637222224,"peak_prob":40.35},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517823","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"trainwreckstv\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"trainwreckstv","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.15,"d_prob":-4.6,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-trainwreckstv-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133819","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":10.825094161908336,"prob_history":[13.05,9.4,3.35,12.35,8.1,3.25,4.25,3.2,1.4000000000000001,18.7,3.05,29.5,38.85,24.4,3.8,39.75,32.4,27.55,19.25,3.15,38.800000000000004,25.0,6.5,0.15],"spike":{"pos":16.274035686944444,"peak_prob":40.150000000000006},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517831","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"odablock\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"odablock","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-2.5,"vol_24hr":219.52,"normalized_vol":10.259001731872559,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-odablock-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133827","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":5.858619959518078,"prob_history":[19.650000000000002,34.849999999999994,26.5,19.400000000000002,2.7,2.65,1.05,1.15,1.6,21.0,39.75,19.75,38.5,38.85,34.050000000000004,21.05,39.25,33.0,16.05,34.9,40.25,37.85,35.85,0.25],"spike":{"pos":19.845404637222224,"peak_prob":40.25},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517826","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"westcol\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"westcol","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":0.8500000000000001,"d_prob":-2.0,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-westcol-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133822","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":4.706562679090581,"prob_history":[2.85,14.45,2.85,25.5,7.3999999999999995,2.7,2.35,2.65,1.05,1.05,1.05,1.05,1.05,32.0,37.0,18.7,39.25,39.2,40.25,38.95,39.75,5.25,20.45,0.8500000000000001],"spike":{"pos":12.123424369722223,"peak_prob":40.35},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517822","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"davooxeneize\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"davooxeneize","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.5499999999999999,"d_prob":-1.35,"vol_24hr":259.51,"normalized_vol":10.902477264404297,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-davooxeneize-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133818","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":3.261362938499828,"prob_history":[27.3,4.1000000000000005,21.75,2.35,2.45,2.7,2.5,2.9499999999999997,1.5,3.55,4.8,4.05,2.8000000000000003,4.3,3.65,3.65,4.15,4.15,3.55,2.9000000000000004,4.75,4.05,0.95,0.5499999999999999],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":27.3},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517834","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"lacobraaa\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"lacobraaa","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":2.4,"d_prob":1.3499999999999999,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-lacobraaa-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133830","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":3.176929808386142,"prob_history":[2.55,21.65,24.25,2.35,4.05,1.95,0.5499999999999999,0.75,0.75,30.349999999999998,16.7,19.45,31.25,31.95,3.75,33.4,31.45,4.9,16.150000000000002,21.349999999999998,35.6,30.25,1.8499999999999999,2.4],"spike":{"pos":16.274035686944444,"peak_prob":37.35},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517825","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"n3on\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"n3on","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-0.8499999999999999,"vol_24hr":219.52,"normalized_vol":10.259001731872559,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-n3on-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133821","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":1.9919307862361464,"prob_history":[22.5,19.1,3.55,3.55,3.55,3.55,3.55,1.35,1.55,23.7,4.15,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,20.1,16.650000000000002,0.7000000000000001,0.25],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":39.6},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517837","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"roshtein\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"roshtein","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.3,"d_prob":-0.7999999999999998,"vol_24hr":224.57,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-roshtein-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133833","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":1.882625071636232,"prob_history":[4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,1.15,1.7500000000000002,4.05,4.05,4.05,null,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,4.05,20.3,4.05,1.6500000000000001,0.3],"spike":{"pos":19.127746945,"peak_prob":25.8},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517824","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"korekore_ch\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"korekore_ch","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.25,"d_prob":-0.8,"vol_24hr":219.52,"normalized_vol":10.259001731872559,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-korekore_ch-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133820","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":1.8747583870457853,"prob_history":[3.8,2.25,2.1999999999999997,2.1999999999999997,2.25,3.55,1.05,1.15,1.7000000000000002,39.35,33.35,19.75,2.25,19.5,35.05,20.150000000000002,38.7,37.6,36.55,39.95,19.3,34.8,32.35,0.25],"spike":{"pos":18.40294907222222,"peak_prob":39.95},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517839","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"baianotv\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"baianotv","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":["Brazil"],"prob":0.8,"d_prob":-0.25,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-baianotv-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133835","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":0.5883203348863226,"prob_history":[31.4,19.35,3.0,2.9499999999999997,2.3,3.55,1.05,1.2,1.7500000000000002,36.15,28.9,20.849999999999998,31.35,3.4000000000000004,22.8,19.8,31.5,25.650000000000002,21.9,2.0,2.0,2.0,1.0999999999999999,0.8],"spike":{"pos":8.301429979444444,"peak_prob":36.15},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517830","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"eray\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"eray","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.5,"d_prob":-0.09999999999999998,"vol_24hr":231.53000000000003,"normalized_vol":10.461639404296875,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-eray-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133826","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":0.23664789916085938,"prob_history":[2.45,25.05,1.6500000000000001,1.6500000000000001,0.7000000000000001,1.25,1.4000000000000001,0.44999999999999996,0.5,0.8500000000000001,0.6,20.150000000000002,19.75,26.1,26.55,0.6,2.9499999999999997,0.6,2.55,22.15,4.8500000000000005,23.849999999999998,30.85,0.5],"spike":{"pos":21.512798720833334,"peak_prob":30.85},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2517836","src":"pm","event_id":"587525","question":"Will \"3mr\" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?","group_item_title":"3mr","event_title":"Who will be the Most Watched Kick Streamer in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":0.6,"d_prob":-0.050000000000000044,"vol_24hr":224.57000000000002,"normalized_vol":10.345277786254883,"end_date":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889/will-3mr-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160133832","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/who-will-be-the-most-watched-kick-streamer-in-june-20260610160132889-orq8xcyeS591.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":0.11766406697726463,"prob_history":[2.6,17.0,19.85,2.55,3.45,2.4,31.900000000000002,0.6,0.7000000000000001,15.65,4.3,37.8,21.2,3.8,25.650000000000002,21.55,17.599999999999998,21.25,3.55,4.3999999999999995,38.1,28.849999999999998,29.95,0.6],"spike":{"pos":19.845404637222224,"peak_prob":38.1},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13","src":"ka","event_id":"KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN","question":"How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?","group_item_title":"Above 13","event_title":"How many launches will SpaceX have in June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":49.0,"d_prob":-13.0,"vol_24hr":9199.14,"normalized_vol":26.58928680419922,"end_date":"2026-07-07T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-june/kxspacexcount-26jun","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-june/kxspacexcount-26jun","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":51.52932766961647,"prob_history":[62.0,62.0,67.0,68.0,68.0,68.0,66.0,67.0,68.0,68.0,65.0,66.0,64.0,67.0,64.0,65.0,65.0,64.0,66.0,66.0,65.0,65.0,65.0,49.0],"spike":{"pos":2.094440130555556,"peak_prob":69.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:gpt","cluster_label":"gpt","cluster_slug":"gpt","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":148331.24459799996,"score":44.78308435148233,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2100069","src":"pm","event_id":"425249","question":"GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"GPT-5.6 released by...?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":42.0,"d_prob":10.5,"vol_24hr":18409.079016999996,"normalized_vol":33.98160171508789,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-5pt6-released-by/gpt-5pt6-released-by-june-30-2026-522-692-467","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-5pt6-released-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":44.78308435148233,"prob_history":[38.0,40.0,47.0,47.5,43.5,36.5,31.5,30.0,29.5,31.5,30.5,48.5,63.0,68.5,55.00000000000001,52.5,58.5,56.49999999999999,57.99999999999999,56.99999999999999,43.0,43.5,44.5,42.0],"spike":{"pos":12.807611466388888,"peak_prob":68.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2268864","src":"pm","event_id":"488268","question":"Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?","group_item_title":"Not released by June 28","event_title":"When will GPT-5.6 be released?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":67.0,"d_prob":-3.5,"vol_24hr":58571.19626299997,"normalized_vol":42.463008880615234,"end_date":"2026-06-28T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released/will-gpt-5pt6-not-be-released-by-june-28-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":16.68692028127331,"prob_history":[69.0,67.4,70.5,68.85,65.8,66.45,70.75,72.6,72.39999999999999,73.45,71.25,47.85,39.1,51.949999999999996,59.75,69.0,39.85,57.550000000000004,57.9,60.8,68.4,66.9,66.95,67.0],"spike":{"pos":12.123424369722223,"peak_prob":30.75},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2268863","src":"pm","event_id":"488268","question":"Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 22–June 28","event_title":"When will GPT-5.6 be released?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":31.95,"d_prob":3.400000000000002,"vol_24hr":71350.96931800002,"normalized_vol":44.00354766845703,"end_date":"2026-06-28T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released/will-gpt-5pt6-be-released-between-june-22-and-june-28-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":16.501580278164347,"prob_history":[28.95,33.15,30.45,32.05,33.4,32.4,29.7,27.400000000000002,27.450000000000003,26.35,28.199999999999996,49.05,60.550000000000004,47.9,42.699999999999996,30.7,58.95,40.45,40.300000000000004,37.25,32.5,33.35,32.75,31.95],"spike":{"pos":12.123424369722223,"peak_prob":68.75},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg"},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:spacex","cluster_label":"SpaceX","cluster_slug":"spacex","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":578.132576,"score":36.47391516058062,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"1131457","src":"pm","event_id":"149882","question":"Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?","group_item_title":"140-159","event_title":"How many SpaceX launches in 2026?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"prob":74.35000000000001,"d_prob":15.650000000000013,"vol_24hr":213.092576,"normalized_vol":10.146833419799805,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026/will-spacex-have-between-140-159-launches-in-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2025-H9bLc6Yotwva.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2025-H9bLc6Yotwva.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":36.47391516058062,"prob_history":[58.699999999999996,58.699999999999996,58.699999999999996,58.699999999999996,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,58.699999999999996,null,null,null,null,null,70.95,72.8,74.5,76.9,77.45,76.35,74.35000000000001],"spike":{"pos":10.7411559725,"peak_prob":58.699999999999996},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2431401","src":"pm","event_id":"556374","question":"Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026?","group_item_title":"13","event_title":"How many SpaceX launches in June 2026?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":43.5,"d_prob":14.0,"vol_24hr":365.03999999999996,"normalized_vol":12.276392936706543,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-june-2026/will-spacex-have-exactly-13-launches-in-june-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-june-2026","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2025-H9bLc6Yotwva.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2025-H9bLc6Yotwva.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":35.88939965350248,"prob_history":[29.5,29.5,29.5,29.5,29.5,29.5,29.5,29.5,null,28.499999999999996,26.5,26.5,null,null,null,29.5,31.0,31.5,33.5,33.5,null,null,null,43.5],"spike":{"pos":10.7411559725,"peak_prob":26.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2025-H9bLc6Yotwva.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"manifold","market_id":"P0R6uAC2nU","src":"ma","event_id":"P0R6uAC2nU","question":"Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?","group_item_title":null,"event_title":"Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"prob":31.937199999999997,"d_prob":10.670399999999997,"vol_24hr":5420.154843637898,"normalized_vol":47.530792236328125,"end_date":"2026-07-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa","event_url":"https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":18.58731672597883,"prob_history":[21.2668,16.5304,20.0761,28.6713,34.5049,34.3009,33.0,32.4082,26.252799999999997,27.8418,27.8418,26.195600000000002,26.195600000000002,24.4897,34.0562,34.0562,29.323300000000003,28.9031,33.753899999999994,33.4301,34.1266,34.1266,33.9464,31.937199999999997],"spike":{"pos":0.6914492622222222,"peak_prob":16.5304},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"1820798","src":"pm","event_id":"333737","question":"Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?","group_item_title":"December 31","event_title":"Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["China"],"prob":14.000000000000002,"d_prob":5.000000000000002,"vol_24hr":4617.217827,"normalized_vol":25.085216522216797,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-april-a_9taJMfZn2f.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":18.322372066934655,"prob_history":[9.0,32.0,31.0,26.0,19.5,19.0,19.0,19.0,19.0,null,19.0,null,18.5,17.0,16.5,16.5,16.0,12.5,14.000000000000002,null,14.000000000000002,null,null,14.000000000000002],"spike":{"pos":1.2826088277777778,"peak_prob":32.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"manifold","market_id":"ISUuclN9C0","src":"ma","event_id":"ISUuclN9C0","question":"Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?","group_item_title":null,"event_title":"Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?","cat":"Science and Technology","categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":42.9847,"d_prob":-2.5790000000000077,"vol_24hr":10410.382787188457,"normalized_vol":55.019752502441406,"end_date":"2026-06-30T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/fable-reenabled-for-americans-by-ju","event_url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/fable-reenabled-for-americans-by-ju","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":5.213754197334145,"prob_history":[44.7598,19.3986,20.6678,35.7731,36.275800000000004,46.1124,46.1124,46.1124,45.6839,39.5621,39.5621,39.9727,40.7534,39.379,39.0,38.3109,38.3109,44.0,43.4134,43.1079,43.4116,41.7064,39.9899,42.9847],"spike":{"pos":0.6914492622222222,"peak_prob":19.3986},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"Climate and Weather":[],"World":[{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:ukraine-map","cluster_label":"Ukraine Map","cluster_slug":"ukraine-map","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":37573.808687000004,"score":400.1162205172823,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2439416","src":"pm","event_id":"560180","question":"Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"prob":97.39999999999999,"d_prob":90.39999999999999,"vol_24hr":26671.540685000004,"normalized_vol":36.59568786621094,"end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":400.1162205172823,"prob_history":[7.000000000000001,7.000000000000001,8.0,7.000000000000001,null,7.000000000000001,73.5,91.5,91.0,91.0,93.0,94.5,94.5,96.39999999999999,95.3,96.45,96.45,97.25,96.85000000000001,97.45,96.45,96.39999999999999,96.8,97.39999999999999],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":7.000000000000001},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2439417","src":"pm","event_id":"560180","question":"Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"July 31","event_title":"Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"prob":99.0,"d_prob":79.0,"vol_24hr":9900.398780999998,"normalized_vol":29.824932098388672,"end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by-july-31-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dorozhnie-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":315.6600276213545,"prob_history":[33.0,34.0,37.0,35.0,null,34.5,85.5,96.5,95.0,97.75,97.05,96.5,96.39999999999999,95.45,96.3,95.39999999999999,96.45,96.65,97.35000000000001,97.1,98.1,97.85000000000001,98.05,99.0],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":20.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2373474","src":"pm","event_id":"300475","question":"Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"prob":26.5,"d_prob":-26.0,"vol_24hr":745.4725559999997,"normalized_vol":15.419486045837402,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by-april-30-2026-mO5YsM4MLk53.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by-wewI1PssJN1q.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":74.69835998442676,"prob_history":[45.5,37.0,37.5,37.5,37.0,37.5,35.5,34.5,33.0,33.0,33.0,33.0,33.0,32.5,null,28.000000000000004,null,28.000000000000004,28.000000000000004,26.5,26.5,26.5,25.5,26.5],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":52.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2447485","src":"pm","event_id":"563426","question":"Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","event_title":"Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?","cat":"World","categories":["World"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"prob":38.5,"d_prob":-28.5,"vol_24hr":256.396665,"normalized_vol":10.855399131774902,"end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-hryshyne-byptptpt-20260604220409322/will-ukraine-re-enter-hryshyne-by-july-31-20260604220043035","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-hryshyne-byptptpt-20260604220409322","image":"","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-enter-novomykolaivka-by-march-31-jZAp-MOZ1pZ0.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":68.70218309461968,"prob_history":[67.0,69.0,65.0,66.0,65.0,65.0,66.5,62.0,54.50000000000001,56.00000000000001,44.5,44.0,43.0,40.5,41.5,44.0,45.5,43.0,46.0,44.0,44.0,40.0,43.5,38.5],"spike":{"pos":0.580756395,"peak_prob":69.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg"},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:colombia-election","cluster_label":"Colombia Election","cluster_slug":"colombia-election","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":3712854.0377370003,"score":221.1664223801939,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2446454","src":"pm","event_id":"563062","question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?","group_item_title":"Abelardo de la Espriella","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":0.8500000000000001,"d_prob":-43.65,"vol_24hr":116629.94653899998,"normalized_vol":47.9583625793457,"end_date":"2026-06-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508/will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-place-1st-in-bogota-in-the-second-round-of-the-2026-colombia-presidential-election-20260604170547991","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":221.1664223801939,"prob_history":[44.5,44.5,44.5,44.5,44.0,43.5,37.0,41.0,44.5,14.499999999999998,0.5,0.5499999999999999,0.8999999999999999,0.8999999999999999,1.0,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.8999999999999999,0.8500000000000001,0.8500000000000001],"spike":{"pos":7.578343704444444,"peak_prob":44.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2446453","src":"pm","event_id":"563062","question":"Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iván Cepeda Castro","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":97.8,"d_prob":41.300000000000004,"vol_24hr":101211.19851899997,"normalized_vol":46.7996940612793,"end_date":"2026-06-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-place-1st-in-bogota-in-the-second-round-of-the-2026-colombia-presidential-election-20260604170547990","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-runoff-most-votes-from-bogota-20260604201820508","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ivn-cepeda-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-UcgdSjp1qVqg.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":206.71611706233696,"prob_history":[56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.49999999999999,56.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,64.5,58.5,56.49999999999999,86.0,99.1,99.0,98.75,99.1,99.0,99.35000000000001,98.5,98.5,98.5,98.5,97.75,97.85000000000001,97.89999999999999,97.8],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":56.00000000000001},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"569368","src":"pm","event_id":"34584","question":"Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iván Cepeda Castro","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":0.8,"d_prob":-11.7,"vol_24hr":1798713.7482460004,"normalized_vol":73.0876235961914,"end_date":"2026-06-21T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-Nc6-bsFm3eq7.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":73.18305885844812,"prob_history":[11.5,11.5,14.499999999999998,15.5,16.5,21.5,21.0,20.5,19.5,2.55,1.0,1.25,1.3,0.8,0.7000000000000001,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.8],"spike":{"pos":6.1808014855555555,"peak_prob":21.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"569366","src":"pm","event_id":"34584","question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella  win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Abelardo de la Espriella","event_title":"Colombia Presidential Election","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":99.25,"d_prob":10.75,"vol_24hr":1696299.1444329997,"normalized_vol":72.49385833740234,"end_date":"2026-06-21T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election/will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-mZ_LYPs3S8OL.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":66.96715401493229,"prob_history":[88.5,88.5,85.5,84.5,84.5,78.0,79.5,80.5,81.5,97.5,99.05000000000001,98.15,98.65,99.15,99.15,99.4,99.4,99.35000000000001,99.3,99.35000000000001,99.3,99.15,99.3,99.25],"spike":{"pos":4.796860686944444,"peak_prob":78.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-candidate-a-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election-671-WCZ4SVxw9dWG.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"manifold","market_id":"IRZduASuhA","src":"ma","event_id":"PzAgzI9E6U","question":"Keir Starmer","group_item_title":"Keir Starmer","event_title":"Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","World","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"prob":97.7029,"d_prob":33.832,"vol_24hr":43356.666400111106,"normalized_vol":73.29791259765625,"end_date":"2026-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Base/who-will-be-the-next-world-leader-t-RR2Es2OE6Q","event_url":"https://manifold.markets/Base/who-will-be-the-next-world-leader-t-RR2Es2OE6Q","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":89.25072440028386,"prob_history":[63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,63.8709,74.11330000000001,74.11330000000001,81.05409999999999,84.9109,84.923,84.923,89.6075,89.3069,89.3069,89.3069,89.3069,89.2495,89.2495,89.2009,89.6973,89.6973,97.7029],"spike":{"pos":6.181749958888889,"peak_prob":63.8709},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:trump-presidency","cluster_label":"Trump Presidency","cluster_slug":"trump-presidency","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":1841.429422,"score":80.64481168153782,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"952023","src":"pm","event_id":"107074","question":"Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":15.5,"d_prob":-34.0,"vol_24hr":234.454083,"normalized_vol":10.509679794311523,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-fully-suspends-entry-to-the-us-for-more-countries-by/trump-fully-suspends-entry-to-the-us-for-more-countries-by-june-30-2026","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-fully-suspends-entry-to-the-us-for-more-countries-by","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-fully-suspends-entry-to-the-us-for-more-countries-by-E3QM7agpHJ8C.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-fully-suspends-entry-to-the-us-for-more-countries-by-E3QM7agpHJ8C.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":80.64481168153782,"prob_history":[37.5,38.5,51.0,39.5,39.5,39.5,39.5,39.5,39.5,39.0,38.0,38.5,38.0,38.5,38.0,38.0,38.0,46.0,42.0,40.5,38.5,40.0,27.500000000000004,15.5],"spike":{"pos":1.9866991827777778,"peak_prob":51.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"957646","src":"pm","event_id":"57088","question":"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?","cat":"Politics","categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"prob":8.200000000000001,"d_prob":3.6500000000000012,"vol_24hr":1606.9753389999998,"normalized_vol":19.204242706298828,"end_date":"2026-03-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-june-30","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31-ihvZFCsuS8NH.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31-ihvZFCsuS8NH.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":11.702919750975427,"prob_history":[4.55,4.55,4.6,4.6,null,4.65,4.75,4.6,4.3999999999999995,4.3999999999999995,4.1000000000000005,4.05,4.1000000000000005,25.1,23.200000000000003,23.200000000000003,23.3,23.35,23.400000000000002,23.65,23.799999999999997,9.3,8.649999999999999,8.200000000000001],"spike":{"pos":12.807611466388888,"peak_prob":25.1},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-fully-suspends-entry-to-the-us-for-more-countries-by-E3QM7agpHJ8C.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"1194643","src":"pm","event_id":"166780","question":"Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Iliana Iotova","event_title":"Bulgaria Presidential Election","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"countries":["Bulgaria"],"prob":47.0,"d_prob":19.499999999999996,"vol_24hr":4838.720985999999,"normalized_vol":25.364545822143555,"end_date":"2026-11-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election/will-iliana-iotova-win-the-next-bulgarian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iliana-iotova-win-the-2026-bulgarian-presidential-election-xCV2fmOJQbEV.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bulgaria-election-scheduled-by-december-31-sj1lowFVfVXg.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":71.85399633599135,"prob_history":[27.500000000000004,27.500000000000004,28.999999999999996,null,null,28.999999999999996,28.999999999999996,null,30.0,31.0,32.5,32.5,34.5,34.5,null,null,null,34.5,38.5,40.0,40.5,40.0,null,47.0],"spike":{"pos":0.580756395,"peak_prob":27.500000000000004},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"1194657","src":"pm","event_id":"166780","question":"Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?","group_item_title":"Аndrey Gyurov","event_title":"Bulgaria Presidential Election","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections","World","Politics"],"countries":["Bulgaria"],"prob":41.0,"d_prob":-14.000000000000007,"vol_24hr":202.32456900000003,"normalized_vol":9.952622413635254,"end_date":"2026-11-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election/will-ndrey-gyurov-win-the-next-bulgarian-presidential-election","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ndrey-gyurov-win-the-next-bulgarian-presidential-election-ua6JHKsHyblw.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bulgaria-election-scheduled-by-december-31-sj1lowFVfVXg.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":32.314658045202,"prob_history":[55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,55.00000000000001,56.00000000000001,55.50000000000001,55.50000000000001,55.50000000000001,55.50000000000001,45.0,46.0,44.5,44.0,43.0,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,41.5,42.5,42.0,41.0],"spike":{"pos":2.6905752225,"peak_prob":56.00000000000001},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"cluster","cluster_key":"polymarket:international-election-props","cluster_label":"International Election Props","cluster_slug":"international-election-props","source":"polymarket","src":"pm","total_vol_24hr":43174.120210999914,"score":35.480291272396734,"events":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2587825","src":"pm","event_id":"41359","question":"Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?","group_item_title":"July 15","event_title":"Israeli parliament dissolved by...?","cat":"World","categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Israel"],"prob":51.5,"d_prob":-11.5,"vol_24hr":1215.8658949999997,"normalized_vol":17.781694412231445,"end_date":"2026-07-15T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-july-15","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-parliament-dissolve-by-end-of-july-ukAKtEly0Y84.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-parliament-dissolve-by-end-of-july-ukAKtEly0Y84.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":35.480291272396734,"prob_history":[68.0,63.0,58.5,58.5,57.99999999999999,49.0,37.5,48.0,47.5,46.0,51.5,51.5,51.5,51.5,51.5,51.5,50.5,52.0,51.0,50.5,51.0,50.5,51.5,51.5],"spike":{"pos":0.0,"peak_prob":68.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"2354063","src":"pm","event_id":"41359","question":"Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","event_title":"Israeli parliament dissolved by...?","cat":"World","categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Israel"],"prob":72.0,"d_prob":5.5,"vol_24hr":1720.0212549999999,"normalized_vol":19.559335708618164,"end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-july-31-832","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-parliament-dissolve-by-end-of-july-ukAKtEly0Y84.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-parliament-dissolve-by-end-of-july-ukAKtEly0Y84.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":17.79682428697425,"prob_history":[66.5,69.5,71.5,71.5,72.5,73.0,69.5,64.5,69.5,70.0,74.5,76.5,75.0,74.0,75.0,74.0,74.0,72.0,72.0,72.0,71.5,71.5,72.0,72.0],"spike":{"pos":4.099244273333333,"peak_prob":88.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"1280208","src":"pm","event_id":"41359","question":"Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","event_title":"Israeli parliament dissolved by...?","cat":"World","categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Israel"],"prob":28.999999999999996,"d_prob":0.0,"vol_24hr":40051.95935199991,"normalized_vol":39.57377243041992,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-june-30-228","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-parliament-dissolve-by-end-of-july-ukAKtEly0Y84.jpg","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-parliament-dissolve-by-end-of-july-ukAKtEly0Y84.jpg","spike_kind":"prob","score":0.0,"prob_history":[28.000000000000004,26.5,26.0,28.999999999999996,28.999999999999996,16.5,18.5,24.0,24.0,24.5,23.0,24.5,24.5,27.500000000000004,28.000000000000004,28.000000000000004,28.000000000000004,30.0,23.0,26.5,24.5,28.000000000000004,26.5,28.999999999999996],"spike":{"pos":4.099244273333333,"peak_prob":12.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}]},{"kind":"event","source":"polymarket","market_id":"1718357","src":"pm","event_id":"307409","question":"Haiti elections delayed again?","group_item_title":"","event_title":"Haiti elections delayed again?","cat":"Elections","categories":["Elections","Politics"],"countries":["Haiti"],"prob":62.5,"d_prob":-14.0,"vol_24hr":186.27370900000005,"normalized_vol":9.647024154663086,"end_date":"2026-08-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/haiti-elections-delayed-again/haiti-elections-delayed-again","event_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/haiti-elections-delayed-again","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/haiti-elections-delayed-again-dr6BIRfrp4f6.png","event_image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/haiti-elections-delayed-again-dr6BIRfrp4f6.png","spike_kind":"prob","score":31.81467536628962,"prob_history":[75.5,76.0,77.5,75.5,76.5,76.0,76.5,75.5,74.5,75.0,75.0,75.5,74.5,74.5,75.0,73.0,73.0,73.0,73.0,null,73.0,64.0,64.0,62.5],"spike":{"pos":1.9866991827777778,"peak_prob":77.5},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-parliament-dissolve-by-end-of-july-ukAKtEly0Y84.jpg"},{"kind":"event","source":"manifold","market_id":"UNsOOIL0LE","src":"ma","event_id":"UNsOOIL0LE","question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella be the next president in Colombia?","group_item_title":null,"event_title":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella be the next president in Colombia?","cat":"World","categories":["World"],"countries":["Colombia"],"prob":99.0,"d_prob":12.352400000000003,"vol_24hr":15151.145947018942,"normalized_vol":59.57391357421875,"end_date":"2026-06-22T16:25:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"closing-soon","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EmanuelNunez/who-will-be-the-new-presindent-in-c","event_url":"https://manifold.markets/EmanuelNunez/who-will-be-the-new-presindent-in-c","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":26.96902551825705,"prob_history":[86.6476,86.6476,85.0,84.07,82.2564,81.0,81.0,82.0,83.0083,96.9932,96.9932,96.6906,97.53880000000001,97.53880000000001,99.0,99.0,99.0,99.0,99.0,99.0,99.0,99.0,99.0,99.0],"spike":{"pos":5.39944902,"peak_prob":81.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"Business":[{"kind":"event","source":"kalshi","market_id":"KXCOMPANYACTIONLAYOFF-B-26JUL01","src":"ka","event_id":"KXCOMPANYACTIONLAYOFF-B","question":"Will any tech company announce One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before Jul 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before July","event_title":"One-time layoff greater than Block (40% of employees) in tech?","cat":"Business","categories":["Business"],"countries":[],"prob":3.0,"d_prob":-21.0,"vol_24hr":3089.54,"normalized_vol":20.61312484741211,"end_date":"2026-07-08T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcompanyactionlayoff/one-time-layoff-greater-than-block-40-of-employees-in-tech/kxcompanyactionlayoff-b","event_url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcompanyactionlayoff/one-time-layoff-greater-than-block-40-of-employees-in-tech/kxcompanyactionlayoff-b","image":null,"event_image":null,"spike_kind":"prob","score":73.29072174725611,"prob_history":[24.0,24.0,24.0,24.0,6.0,6.0,6.0,6.0,6.0,4.0,4.0,4.0,4.0,4.0,4.0,2.0,2.0,2.0,2.0,3.0,null,3.0,null,3.0],"spike":{"pos":2.740535317222222,"peak_prob":24.0},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]},{"kind":"event","source":"opinion","market_id":"1345","src":"op","event_id":"78","question":"0 (0 bps)","group_item_title":null,"event_title":"How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","cat":"Business","categories":["Business","Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"prob":55.800000000000004,"d_prob":4.600000000000001,"vol_24hr":1257.2289999984205,"normalized_vol":22.186649322509766,"end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"status":"open","is_resolved":false,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","event_url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026","image":null,"event_image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0x395262af55dbae5f1a7c3e174983dd9d38c830997a54ed4d0f36baeb49f366af","spike_kind":"prob","score":14.258894577218552,"prob_history":[51.2,53.6,53.6,53.6,59.0,53.6,53.6,53.6,53.6,53.6,53.6,53.6,62.0,62.0,62.0,62.0,62.0,67.10000000000001,68.10000000000001,68.10000000000001,68.10000000000001,68.10000000000001,61.9,55.800000000000004],"spike":{"pos":21.080908455,"peak_prob":73.9},"is_entertainment":false,"is_microprediction":false,"is_crypto":false,"is_sports":false,"is_weather":false,"children":[]}],"Commodities":[],"Health":[]},"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"http://api.pdata.world/api/v1/news/movers/by-category","as_of":"2026-06-22T12:26:57.674332Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs"}}